5.00pm. Missouri now being called for McCain, who leads Huckabee and Romney 33.1 per cent to 31.8 per cent and 29.3 per cent. Democratic contest still too close to call in Missouri, but Obama holds a slight lead and the trend has been favouring him for some time.
4.44pm. Fox calls Alaska for Obama. Slow progress in New Mexico.
4.36pm. Everyone now calling Arizona for Clinton.
4.25pm. Fox and ABC call Colorado for Romney.
4.23pm. CBS, Fox and ABC (though not CNN) calling McCain for California.
4.21pm. Obama has hit the lead in Missouri, 49.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent with 98 per cent reporting, after a number of outlets earlier called it for Clinton. Given that Democratic delegates are allocated proportionately, this is mostly of academic interest. Not so the state’s Republican race, a winner-takes-all contest in which McCain leads Huckabee and Romney 33.3 per cent to 32.0 per cent and 29.5 per cent, also with 98 per cent reporting. Fox and ABC are calling it for McCain, but not CNN.
4.13pm. NBC and Fox are both calling California for Clinton.
4.12pm. CBS calls Montana for Romney.
3.56pm. CNN now calling Utah for Obama: he leads 53-41 with 37 per cent reporting.
3.50pm. No significant results yet from Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego or Sacramento.
3.38pm. Clinton leads 55-33 in California with 10 per cent counted, but pronounced regional variations can presumably be expected from a state that boasts both Malibu and Compton.
3.37pm. CNN calling Minnesota for Romney.
3.32pm. Fox’s call of Utah for Obama might also have been premature (I heard it on Fox News Radio; not sure it ever appeared as called on the website). Only 13 per cent reporting and Obama leads 45-44. Presumably the Fox call was based on an exit poll.
3.29pm. Clinton leads 51-40 in Arizona with 48 per cent reporting, but nobody’s calling it.
3.25pm. Fox’s call of Tennessee for Huckabee may have been premature (they’re still saying it on Fox News Radio, but not on the website). He leads McCain 34.1 per cent to 32.4 per cent with 83 per cent of precincts reporting.
3.20pm. McCain gaining on Huckabee in Missouri: now 33-32-29, compared with 35-32-27 half an hour ago.
3.15pm. Fox calls Idaho for Obama and Missouri for Clinton.
3.15pm. Fox calls Colorado for Obama.
3.10pm. Fox says Clinton wins American Samoa, and Romney wins Montana.
3.03pm. Fox News Radio reports McCain doing better than Romney in California from absent votes, but Romney doing better in normal votes. Clinton just ahead of Obama.
3.00pm. Also not sure why nobody giving Romney North Dakota, where he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-23-21-20.
2.58pm. Not sure why nobody calling Montana for Romney: he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-24-23-17 with 89 per cent of precincts reporting.
2.53pm. Nobody calling Missouri Democratic either, but Clinton leads 53-44 with 68 per cent of precincts reporting.
2.48pm. No one is calling the Missouri Republican race: Huckabee leads McCain and Romney 35-32-27 with 66 per cent precincts reporting.
2.46pm. A couple of outlets calling Georgia for Huckabee.
2.38pm. Fox calls Arizona for McCain and Tennessee for Huckabee.
2.29pm. Fox calls Utah for Obama.
2.25pm. Minnesota being called for Obama, who seems to be picking up a lot of the smaller states. Expectations he would perform well in caucuses have apparently been confirmed, boding well for him in Colorado and Idaho.
2.21pm. Fox News Radio and CNN call Connecticut for Obama.
2.15pm. Huckabee giving a speech, and not sounding of a mind to withdraw.
2.14pm. ABC calls Kansas for Obama.
2.08pm. Fox calls Oklahoma for McCain.
2.06pm. ABC also calling Utah for Romney; no surprise of course that he should carry the Mormon state.
2.03pm. Fox News projects Obama as winner of North Dakota, giving him seven states to Clinton’s six, and Utah to Romney.
1.44pm. Romney coming third behind Huckabee in many more places than expected. Almost time to call the nomination for McCain, pending one or two larger states.
1.31pm. CNN, ABC and Fox News Radio say Obama has won Alabama, which was lineball in late polling.
1.21pm. Fox calls Alabama for Huckabee.
1.18pm. Chap on Fox News Radio says McCain has won New York.
1.09pm. Fox calls Delaware for Obama.
1.07pm. CNN calls New York for Clinton, which is no surprise.
12.55pm. Fox calls Massachusetts for Clinton.
12.54pm. Chat on Fox News Radio indicates McCain is looking very good overall.
12.50pm. Winner-takes-all Republican contest for Delaware called for McCain, which was considered likely but not certain.
12.44pm. Arkansas being called for Huckabee, who is clearly doing better than expected.
12.36pm. Tennessee also called for Clinton, which was expected.
12.35pm. CNN calls Arizona for Clinton and Huckabee. The latter would be a big surprise if accurate; polls had Clinton with only a narrow lead.
12.29pm. The Times on Democratic exit polls:
The AP survey’s findings, leaked to The Times tonight before polls closed, should be treated with caution because they have been wrong before. But the early findings showed Mr Obama winning Georgia by 74 points to 25, Alabama by 59 to 37, Illinois by 69 to 29 and Delaware by 55 to 42. He also had narrower leads, possibly within the margin of error, in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri. The poll indicated Mrs Clinton was leading by seven points in New York – less than expected – and Tennessee where she had an 11 point advantage, according to the poll. In Oklahoma and Arkansas she was shown as more than 30 points ahead. In California, she is shown just ahead, by perhaps as little as three percentage points.
12.13pm. CNN is also calling Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton on the basis of exit polling, though these of course are not winner-takes-all contests. On the Republican side, Illinois (district-level PR), Connecticut (winner takes all) and New Jersey (winner takes all) are being called for McCain, and Massachusetts (two-tier PR) for Romney. All of this is consistent with pre-poll expectations.
11.33am. Further to the previous entry: The Raw Story tells us “Geraghty’s leaks of exit poll data have not always proved accurate. For instance, his information before New Hampshire polls closed showed Senator Barack Obama defeating Senator Hillary Clinton.”
11.23am. More on exit polls from Jim Geraghty at the National Review:
The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual. Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent. Winner take all. If these numbers hold – and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney. Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent. Now on to the NYC-metro-area states: New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent. New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent. Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent. More or less what we expected. Now the big Mitt states: The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent. I think I’m ready to call that one. Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35. But in McCain’s home state… Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8. That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected. On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee… Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent. Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23. Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19. Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27. A barnburner! Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18. Not a big state, but it’s winner take all, so I’m sure Team Romney would take it. Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.
11.14am. Various media outlets calling Georgia for Obama purely on the basis of exit polls.
11.10am. Jason Zengerle at New Republic on exit polls:
The perils of posting these are obvious (President Kerry and all that), but the exit poll results that I’ve seen show: Obama trouncing Hillary in Georgia, Alabama, and Illinois; Hillary trouncing Obama in Arkansas and Oklahoma; Hillary with leads in New York and Tennessee; and Obama with leads in Delaware and Utah (although there’s only one wave of exit polls for Utah). Everywhere else–including Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Arizona, and California–is extremely close.
8.20am (Eastern Australian daylight time). This post will be used to cover today’s Super Tuesday developments, though I don’t promise that my coverage will be greatly timely or comprehensive. We’ll see how we go. The action will begin in earnest when polls in most of the eastern states close at 8pm US eastern time – noon eastern Australian daylight time. Polls in all-important California close three hours later. The one conspicuous exception is West Virginia, which uniquely held a state presidential convention today rather than a primary or caucuses. This has already wrapped up, resulting in Mick Huckabee securing the 18 delegates under the winner-takes-all vote. Huckabee won on the second round of voting after trailing Mitt Romney at the first by 464 votes (41 per cent) to 375 (33 per cent), with John McCain on 176 (16 per cent) and Ron Paul on 118 (10 per cent). Paul was then excluded, and at this point McCain’s supporters were reportedly instructed to throw their weight behind Huckabee to thwart Romney. This delivered victory to Huckabee with 567 (51.5 per cent) to Romney’s 521 (47.4 per cent).
Anyone looking at the various updates agree with me that MSNBC is being by FAR the most conservative at calling delegates??? Currently Clinton 160 vs Obama 129. Get real guys!!!
I agree Hillary remains a huge favourite, but more than 400 superdelegates have not declared… they’re leaving themselves negotiation room… Clinton leads 366-332 on elected delegates… so if Obama pulls some very solid numbers in the remainder of the day (i.e. her lead doesn’t blow out too much), hope remains…
Diogenes
While there is a neurologist in the house… speaking of ill candidates, what about ill presidents? Is there any diagnostic tool for sociopathy, does it count as an illness, and if so, would Dubbya qualify? To my perception his behaviour certainly fits the bill. Also, after all those drugs and drinks in his 20s and 30s, any views on the odds of mental defect of other kinds being present.
I know this is a little judgemental, but I find an extraordinary number of recovered alcoholics are evangelistic christians and (no offence to the non-evangelistic kind) I wonder if the correlation is more than coincidence. I often wonder if parts of their brains are damaged and that makes fundamentalist beliefs more likely? This is all just supposition and I don’t know, just wondering if you have a view?
Ron, strictly a tea drinker. Tq WB.
Well, HRC is doing better than I thought she would!
My guess was she’d be burned at the stake, but maybe they’ll leave that for her first term instead?
Go Hilary! My vote don’t count, but if moral support helps you got it 🙂
How long until polls close in California now? 40 minutes or 90?
It is interesting from the Republican side now as well – if McCain takes it, then it is game over (not that it isn’t already mind you, but the sheer difference in numbers will ensure the media plays it that way) If Romney can take the state then the charade will go on for a bit longer.
Anybody want to take a shot at a prediction? I’m going to tip McCain, simply due to the other results of the night.
“Anybody want to take a shot at a prediction? I’m going to tip McCain, simply due to the other results of the night.”
McCain would have to win California. If on nothing else, surely almost 100% of latino Republicans will vote for him on the issue of illegal immigration amnesty.
McCain and the Huckster for his sidekick.
Regarding McCain and California, the governator has endorsed him too. It would be amazing if McCain, the most moderate republican candidate, didn’t win the most progressive state. As I said two weeks ago, McCain has the nomination sewn up.
Excluding superdelegates, there is far less than a 100 delegates in it, which remains the originally defined ‘win’ condition for Obama. This is not a bad night for him pending results in the west, and the west could push it to be a decisive Obama night with the upcoming states after today favouring Obama heavily.
Clinton leading in the other two undecided states being Utah and Arizona.
Wonder what her odds are now?
Hope someone jumped on the fantastic odds on offer earlier this morning 🙂
Watch Missouri, Obama is closing as the big districts are counted.
Asanque – Obama still pretty firm on Betfair – $2.40 vs $1.67 on Clinton for the nomination. The money hasn’t written him off yet, and neither should anyone else. What odds was Clinton earlier today?
The Finnigans re California
you clearly have not had that scotch so maybe this will force you to:
Each district is assigned somewhere between three and seven delegates, depending on how heavily it has voted Democratic in past elections.
In the districts that have an odd number of delegates — say, three — winning by even a single vote nets a candidate more delegates than his or her opponent.
But in those that have an even number of delegates, one candidate could beat the other by a significant margin, and yet still come away with the same number of delegates
Now for California ,
The African American bloc have alot of odd number delegate districts
(gives a BETTER return of delegates for your vote)
The Latin American bloc have mainly the even number delegate districts
(gives a WORSE return of delegates for your vote)
Interesting that Utah has been called for Obama by Fox in William’s post above.
I guess only a small amount has been counted so far 🙂
Anyone knows why Alabama is 2 delegates to Hillary and 1 to Obama, despite Obama winning comfortably?
US ABC reckons Obama has picked up 6 or 7 delegates net so far tonight
163 – 1.90 for Clinton this morning, and 3.5 to win Cali
Clintons overall delegate lead down to 53
ABC calls Connecticut for Obama. Ouch to Clinton on that one.
anyone who left our sinking ship can return forgiven
the 50 shortfall prediction (worst 120) looking better as the water is paddled out
They haven’t counted much of St Louis yet in relation to Missouri. That should go heavily in favour of Obama.
but bring a bucket
I love the fact that in most Red States the Christian Right has split its vote between the Mormon and Huckleberry they’re so stupid its hilarious and McCain is cleaning up States with 35% on average of the vote when between them they’re getting 55% or so of the vote classic stuff. McCain will have the nomination now, just depends who his running mate will be…
Clinton should win California with the Latino vote squarely on her side. But Obama can call Super Tuesday a win for winning as many if not more States than Clinton. I must say the Dems nomination process is bull butter having winner take all states is far better IMHO.
Ron Paul hopefully will bow out after Tuesday thank god!
Twenty minutes and polls close in California.
Is every body having a good time at the circus today? Has anyone fallen off the trapeze yet?
Can I thank McCain for a nice win yet? Will Hillary be running harder tomorrow, or coasting way out in front?
Ah, such excitement, pollbludgers!
Georgia just called for Huckabee by MSNBC
Hillary will not be coasting KR , our former sinking ship is powering home
169
Possum Comitatus
Are you amazed, surprised, or what? It sure as hell isn’t what the polls were saying only a week or so back!
BHO’s “Yes.We.Can!” team would not be disappointed by tonight’s results. Some would even be surprised that he has done so well. He is well in this race and HillBilly knows she has a fight on her hands.
155 Rain – Just out of general interest, are you supporting Clinton over Obama? If so, why is that?
“having winner take all states is far better IMHO”
But Glen, wouldn’t having proportionate delegate splits guard against the issue you point out re Christian Right voters? They’re not going to get close to a candidate they want because the “liberal” McCain is getting 100% of votes from States which are over 50% arch conservative…
176
Ron
Nah, I was being mildly sardonic.
Glen, I haven’t seen any exit polls, but the Hispanic vote hasn’t historically been proportionally high in California. Add to that the fact that Clinton’s earlier poll leads were largely based on Hispanic voters, the Kennedy factor, and Obama’s Spanish ad blitz, and I’d be very worried about California if I was on team Clinton.
Delegate lead for Obama
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensm…unt_606534.html
180
Smile
We love him for his complete contradictions! Please, do not try to educate him, it will only cause confusion!
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Bermans_count_606534.html
Last was a bad link
Hillary is getting killed in St Louis, 27% to Obama 70%!!
Pancho considering how Clinton has lost bread and butter States like CT she’ll be shaking in her boots about California. Still i want Hillbilly as the nominee as McCain will have have an easier shot at winning against her than BHO.
Berman’s count: 606-534
David Plouffe, on a conference call just now, offered the Obama campaign’s estimate of where they stand at this moment in terms of delegates.
“We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight,” he said.
The Obama campaign’s delegate guy, Jeff Berman, caught and corrected the inaccurate early reports of Nevada’s delegate count, so they’ve got credibility on this count.
Plouffe cited wide margins in Kansas and Minnesota, as well as the fact that Obama had a larger margin in Illinois than Clinton did in New York.
Smile
Glen is right. If the Republican system causes them to have a candidate that will not appeal to the majority of republicans, then that is a great system 🙂
The Republican system ensures justice too. At least, it should ensure a lot of current White House staff face justice after November 2008.
185
Erytnicam
Snap!
(I posted the article instead) LOL
That’s great news with California to come. Will the sunshine state give us a new ‘inevitable candidate’?
191 Hope so, Pancho, the bookies have temporary custody of some of my cash.
an hour ago , the diminishing faithful lacked oarsmen on the good ship ‘Barrack’
but MOST have returned with renewed faith to fight for the dreaded Terminator’s state
50 is our goal or better
193 [50 is our goal or better]
Ron, 50% is our goal or better.
Anyone have the latest Californian odds?
Steve, I got him at $8 almost a year ago. 🙂 I might have a shout at the soccer tonight if this keeps up…
net overall delegates shortfall
Any tips on who will be the next GOP candidate to withdraw. The Murdoch Press is reporting that Romney has vowed to fight on despite winning only 3 states today.
198
Ferny Grover
Not if Romney’s sons can kidnap him and hide him away for a short while so as to save what is left of their inheritance! LOL
Erytnicam & KR
Another way to put it, if that report is correct, Obama ahead 53/47 on delegates, with 28% of the total of 4050 delegates accounted for.