5.00pm. Missouri now being called for McCain, who leads Huckabee and Romney 33.1 per cent to 31.8 per cent and 29.3 per cent. Democratic contest still too close to call in Missouri, but Obama holds a slight lead and the trend has been favouring him for some time.
4.44pm. Fox calls Alaska for Obama. Slow progress in New Mexico.
4.36pm. Everyone now calling Arizona for Clinton.
4.25pm. Fox and ABC call Colorado for Romney.
4.23pm. CBS, Fox and ABC (though not CNN) calling McCain for California.
4.21pm. Obama has hit the lead in Missouri, 49.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent with 98 per cent reporting, after a number of outlets earlier called it for Clinton. Given that Democratic delegates are allocated proportionately, this is mostly of academic interest. Not so the state’s Republican race, a winner-takes-all contest in which McCain leads Huckabee and Romney 33.3 per cent to 32.0 per cent and 29.5 per cent, also with 98 per cent reporting. Fox and ABC are calling it for McCain, but not CNN.
4.13pm. NBC and Fox are both calling California for Clinton.
4.12pm. CBS calls Montana for Romney.
3.56pm. CNN now calling Utah for Obama: he leads 53-41 with 37 per cent reporting.
3.50pm. No significant results yet from Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego or Sacramento.
3.38pm. Clinton leads 55-33 in California with 10 per cent counted, but pronounced regional variations can presumably be expected from a state that boasts both Malibu and Compton.
3.37pm. CNN calling Minnesota for Romney.
3.32pm. Fox’s call of Utah for Obama might also have been premature (I heard it on Fox News Radio; not sure it ever appeared as called on the website). Only 13 per cent reporting and Obama leads 45-44. Presumably the Fox call was based on an exit poll.
3.29pm. Clinton leads 51-40 in Arizona with 48 per cent reporting, but nobody’s calling it.
3.25pm. Fox’s call of Tennessee for Huckabee may have been premature (they’re still saying it on Fox News Radio, but not on the website). He leads McCain 34.1 per cent to 32.4 per cent with 83 per cent of precincts reporting.
3.20pm. McCain gaining on Huckabee in Missouri: now 33-32-29, compared with 35-32-27 half an hour ago.
3.15pm. Fox calls Idaho for Obama and Missouri for Clinton.
3.15pm. Fox calls Colorado for Obama.
3.10pm. Fox says Clinton wins American Samoa, and Romney wins Montana.
3.03pm. Fox News Radio reports McCain doing better than Romney in California from absent votes, but Romney doing better in normal votes. Clinton just ahead of Obama.
3.00pm. Also not sure why nobody giving Romney North Dakota, where he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-23-21-20.
2.58pm. Not sure why nobody calling Montana for Romney: he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-24-23-17 with 89 per cent of precincts reporting.
2.53pm. Nobody calling Missouri Democratic either, but Clinton leads 53-44 with 68 per cent of precincts reporting.
2.48pm. No one is calling the Missouri Republican race: Huckabee leads McCain and Romney 35-32-27 with 66 per cent precincts reporting.
2.46pm. A couple of outlets calling Georgia for Huckabee.
2.38pm. Fox calls Arizona for McCain and Tennessee for Huckabee.
2.29pm. Fox calls Utah for Obama.
2.25pm. Minnesota being called for Obama, who seems to be picking up a lot of the smaller states. Expectations he would perform well in caucuses have apparently been confirmed, boding well for him in Colorado and Idaho.
2.21pm. Fox News Radio and CNN call Connecticut for Obama.
2.15pm. Huckabee giving a speech, and not sounding of a mind to withdraw.
2.14pm. ABC calls Kansas for Obama.
2.08pm. Fox calls Oklahoma for McCain.
2.06pm. ABC also calling Utah for Romney; no surprise of course that he should carry the Mormon state.
2.03pm. Fox News projects Obama as winner of North Dakota, giving him seven states to Clinton’s six, and Utah to Romney.
1.44pm. Romney coming third behind Huckabee in many more places than expected. Almost time to call the nomination for McCain, pending one or two larger states.
1.31pm. CNN, ABC and Fox News Radio say Obama has won Alabama, which was lineball in late polling.
1.21pm. Fox calls Alabama for Huckabee.
1.18pm. Chap on Fox News Radio says McCain has won New York.
1.09pm. Fox calls Delaware for Obama.
1.07pm. CNN calls New York for Clinton, which is no surprise.
12.55pm. Fox calls Massachusetts for Clinton.
12.54pm. Chat on Fox News Radio indicates McCain is looking very good overall.
12.50pm. Winner-takes-all Republican contest for Delaware called for McCain, which was considered likely but not certain.
12.44pm. Arkansas being called for Huckabee, who is clearly doing better than expected.
12.36pm. Tennessee also called for Clinton, which was expected.
12.35pm. CNN calls Arizona for Clinton and Huckabee. The latter would be a big surprise if accurate; polls had Clinton with only a narrow lead.
12.29pm. The Times on Democratic exit polls:
The AP survey’s findings, leaked to The Times tonight before polls closed, should be treated with caution because they have been wrong before. But the early findings showed Mr Obama winning Georgia by 74 points to 25, Alabama by 59 to 37, Illinois by 69 to 29 and Delaware by 55 to 42. He also had narrower leads, possibly within the margin of error, in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri. The poll indicated Mrs Clinton was leading by seven points in New York – less than expected – and Tennessee where she had an 11 point advantage, according to the poll. In Oklahoma and Arkansas she was shown as more than 30 points ahead. In California, she is shown just ahead, by perhaps as little as three percentage points.
12.13pm. CNN is also calling Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton on the basis of exit polling, though these of course are not winner-takes-all contests. On the Republican side, Illinois (district-level PR), Connecticut (winner takes all) and New Jersey (winner takes all) are being called for McCain, and Massachusetts (two-tier PR) for Romney. All of this is consistent with pre-poll expectations.
11.33am. Further to the previous entry: The Raw Story tells us “Geraghty’s leaks of exit poll data have not always proved accurate. For instance, his information before New Hampshire polls closed showed Senator Barack Obama defeating Senator Hillary Clinton.”
11.23am. More on exit polls from Jim Geraghty at the National Review:
The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual. Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent. Winner take all. If these numbers hold – and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney. Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent. Now on to the NYC-metro-area states: New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent. New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent. Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent. More or less what we expected. Now the big Mitt states: The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent. I think I’m ready to call that one. Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35. But in McCain’s home state… Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8. That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected. On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee… Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent. Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23. Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19. Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27. A barnburner! Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18. Not a big state, but it’s winner take all, so I’m sure Team Romney would take it. Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.
11.14am. Various media outlets calling Georgia for Obama purely on the basis of exit polls.
11.10am. Jason Zengerle at New Republic on exit polls:
The perils of posting these are obvious (President Kerry and all that), but the exit poll results that I’ve seen show: Obama trouncing Hillary in Georgia, Alabama, and Illinois; Hillary trouncing Obama in Arkansas and Oklahoma; Hillary with leads in New York and Tennessee; and Obama with leads in Delaware and Utah (although there’s only one wave of exit polls for Utah). Everywhere else–including Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Arizona, and California–is extremely close.
8.20am (Eastern Australian daylight time). This post will be used to cover today’s Super Tuesday developments, though I don’t promise that my coverage will be greatly timely or comprehensive. We’ll see how we go. The action will begin in earnest when polls in most of the eastern states close at 8pm US eastern time – noon eastern Australian daylight time. Polls in all-important California close three hours later. The one conspicuous exception is West Virginia, which uniquely held a state presidential convention today rather than a primary or caucuses. This has already wrapped up, resulting in Mick Huckabee securing the 18 delegates under the winner-takes-all vote. Huckabee won on the second round of voting after trailing Mitt Romney at the first by 464 votes (41 per cent) to 375 (33 per cent), with John McCain on 176 (16 per cent) and Ron Paul on 118 (10 per cent). Paul was then excluded, and at this point McCain’s supporters were reportedly instructed to throw their weight behind Huckabee to thwart Romney. This delivered victory to Huckabee with 567 (51.5 per cent) to Romney’s 521 (47.4 per cent).
This comment on Drumwaster is interesting:
Quick note from one who knows: the early results are obtained from so-called “absentee” (“Vote By Mail”) ballots which have already been counted, but the results cannot be released until the polls close.
That is why you can have all those votes in and counted the instant the polls close.
Posted by Drumwaster on 02/05 at 06:34 PM
Perhaps an early lead to Clinton would reflect the higher support she had during the lead-up phase? i.e., this would likely not capture Obama’s come back very well.
I’m going to go out on a limb (not) and call today for Clinton. Obama would need to win big in California to turn today around from here IMO.
Dunno about that Smile. Strategically speaking, the ‘inevitable candidate’ is looking, at best, just ahead after Super Tuesday, with money, press emphasis and endorsements going against her.
Forget what I said earlier about the Democrat turnout being 2:1 over the Reps. It’s now 5:1 in some states. If I were GOP I would be somewhat troubled by this.
By winning New York McCain has picked up 101 delegates in one hit.
CBS is now calling Clinton as winning Ark., Okla., Tenn., Mass., N.J., & N.Y. and Obama winning Ill., Ga., Ala. & Del. Delaware is a small state with few delegates. Ill, Mass, NJ and NY are large delegate states. If this trend continues Clinton will claim a win unless Obama wins California, in which case it will be fairly close, although Clinton will still have a lead greater than the number of delegates Edwards holds.
One thing becoming apparent – The Democrat nomination will still be wide open after today’s counts.
Obama seems to be benefitting from good delegate counts even in some of the states with majority of votes for Clinton, and will most likely be well within range overall. California should also be close in delegates even if Clinton wins the % of votes. Go Obama.
asanque
then you will faith in Zogby Pollster !
California Zogby Feb. 3 40% 46%
California Zogby Feb. 4 36% 49%
I think both Pollsters are wrong re delegates won in California & they’ll be 20 to 30 net delgates in it
due to the strange odd number district allocations Terminator’s wife’s late endorsement to Obama a Kennedy clan & the trends since Dec
but do prefer Zogby !
So, 90 minutes after the initial poll closing rush, we seem to know the following:
– McCain is now almost certain to be the Republican nominee
– Romney is getting thumped, and will disappear into obscurity
– Huckabee now suddenly has a claim to fame, and a good shot at VP
and…
– Clinton is going to win the day, as expected
– The victory is nowhere near the thrashing needed to force Obama out
– The point of interest will be whether the party now falls behind Clinton or lets the race run on for a little longer, and whether Obama can now keep his momentum going.
The danger for Obama here is that as of tonight, the Republican nomination will now be settled, bar the formalities. The fact the primaries were held so early is an advantage for the Democrats, but the fact will remain that the party in general will NOT want their primary battle to go on for another four months. One way or the other they want this over as soon as practical.
104 Ferny Grover. Makes you wonder how on earth McCain is ahead in some polls.
Hillary should end the day ahead, and Obama with the momentum… with almost 800 unpledged superdelegates, this could very well go all the way to the convention floor. Now THAT woud be fun..
I wonder what the odds you would get right now for Huckabee finishing above Romney today? He might be in with a shot, looking at the GOP States to start counting – I’d only expect Romney to win Utah (derr).
Max , keep the faith
still believe Hillary will win by 50 (after a scotch) and NO MORE than 120
there’s STILL 1455 delegates up for grabs after today plus the 800 super delegates
Obama will continue after today still with a chance
No real surprises so far. Although Clinton won MA more easily then I would have expected.
aanque
Kennedy lost me when he cleverly got onto Obama’s wagon far too late & has hurt Obama in Kennedy’s own state
For the sake of whoever wins the Democratic nomination, lets hope Huckabee is Republican VP nomination. Smiling country boy my ass! Do a little digging on that man’s time in office and there is a nasty past and a lot of dirt to throw. Plus he could barely spell economy, let alone fix the one George broke.
Oklahoma being called for McCain
Socrates would you prefer the former Governor of florida …the ‘chads’ king
Bush’s brother as VP instead
oh , the nightmare scenario….mcCain AND Bush !
Ron and Asanque
Regarding Massachusets, unfortunately for Obama I must agree. That is one of the reasons I have been skeptical about Obama’s real chances in recent weeks. I think people like Kennedy endorsing you could be dangerously like a Labor figure here getting an endorsement from Mark Latham – a famous but divisive figure that might cost you more votes than it wins. Also, there have been so many celebrities jumping on the Obama bandwagon, that it seemed like overkill to me. Surely some voters must wish they would all just shut up and let them make their own decision.
Propaganda from the Obama camp. Call me the Minister for Information.
— They are winning states by a dominant amount and losing by smaller margins.
— Wait for the caucus states – their organization is better there.
— She should be winning her home state by more. The margin is comparable to her margin in Michigan.
Interesting to hear that of those in the GOP calling themselves ‘very conservative’, McCain is getting 19% of the vote. Romney was on top with 47, Huckabee had the rest.
Which seems to be in line with what the media is saying. Makes a nice change…
Ron
Hehe that is the nightmare scenario for the Republicans. Anything that links their 2008 candidate to the train wreck of Bush’s presidency is the kiss of death.
116 Socrates Remember Dan Quayle? But he couldn’t spell. That didn’t stop him becoming VP.
oh , the nightmare scenario….McCain AND Jeb Bush as VP !
sorry to scare you Socrates
you’re right about overkill endorsements Socrates
I would have advised to have had none so the focus was on Obama EXCEPT
getting Edwards to come out as the only endorsee (unless he’s unwilling ?)
“Propaganda from the Obama camp.”
I think they have overplayed their hand in the past week by projecting late momentum as being possible of delivering a victory today…
#102 – Smile – I have called on Hillary long time ago. If Obama cannot get closed to Hillary in Mass. after the endorsement of the big four in Mass., namely Kerry, Kennedys and the Boston Mayor, then he cannot win.
It is now clear Hillary will win the big States, incl. Kalifornia. She also wins Edwards’ votes, big slice of women and latinos.
Obama will carry on, he must carry on but the game is over for Obama. Love you dreamers, but his time will come as the constellation is not in alignment for Barrack this time, yet. Patience, Barrack, patience.
Long time without posting, but I couldn’t resist with the spate of Super Tuesday action. It seems Huckabee is doing very well in the Deep South (i.e. Alabama and Georgia) as well as breaking even or doing better than Romney in other conservative Southern states such as Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Prior to Super Tuesday, I would have thought these would have been Romney’s strongholds, with the more liberal states (NY, MA and CT) McCain’s strong states. Given Huckabee’s strong showing in these states, and the winner take all style of the Republican race, even at this early stage signs aren’t good for Romney’s campaign.
Still, it’s easy to get ahead of oneself with so much information. It’s difficult to know which precincts are reporting already, and how the votes will hold up as different county results start coming in.
Our ship is sinking , how could you The Finnigans grab the only life boat
Is that an educated guess or have you seen exits which say as such?
#127 – Ron, I am still on Barrack’s boat. Have not jumped and is not sinking. Just paddling on into tomorrow’s sunrise.
CNN now calling the Democrat delegates Clinton 299 Obama 219
CBS now calling the Democrat delegates Clinton 533 Obama 437
If Obama wins California (clearly) it will be close. Otherwise Clinton has won the day.
I don’t agree that this will drag on for 3 months. By March 4 Ohio, Texas, Washington, and most of the remaining large States will have voted. There will be a winer by then. I know the super-delegate system is convoluted but that doesn’t mean they will all defect. Also remember that Clinton won Florida, a large delegate number state, despite the penalty for going early. If Obama wins by subterfuge it will only weaken his credibility in the real race for POTUS.
IMO Obama really has to win California tonight to get back on level terms in the edlegate count and then beat Clinton in the contests between now and 4 March, otherwise Clinton will be the Democratic candidate.
#128 – Max – based on the same gut feeling that I had for Hillary in NH when everyone else has written her off.
I do not have any TV …so no updates…is missouri in ?
Chris you mentioned Dan Quale’s spelling problems
Loved georg’e recent Press conference re Brown meeting
George:
we had a meeting at a table
er.it wa a round table
..er actually it was a square table
anyway it was a table
The codes to the nuke buttons are in safe hands
I disagree with you Socrates regarding Florida.
The national Democrats penalised Florida for going early, and the candidates agreed not to campaign.
If anything, it will be Clinton’s subterfuge for trying to override a previous pledge and agreement by all candidates.
The Florida result cannot stand if no candidate was allowed to campaign.
Ron –
Missouri – Clinton 57, Obama 39
Huckabee 37, McCain 31
Neither have been called yet, but you figure it’s a matter of time now
As it stands, Florida ISN’T a large delegate number state, as it did not abide by the rules set and was stripped of all delegates. Hillary, after promising not to campaign either bent the rules very sharply or cheated by campaigning there, depending on how charitable you wish to be. Obama did not campaign there.
It was Hillary’s damn tears that did it!
If the count is close, I’d wager the Florida delegates will be allowed to vote at the convention.
Can anyone explain to me Romney’s sole win in Mass? On the current figures, he is 10,000 votes behind McCain with more than 50% of the count in.
Edwards winning Utah!
Edwards 238 39% 0 1%
reporting
Clinton 4 1% 0
Obama 0 0% 0
Also, out of interest, is there any precedent for a candidate winning a nomination at the convention then becoming ill and not being able to run for POTUS (must be a consideration given McCain’s age…)
And therein you might have the battle for the next President, Smile. Bloody Florida, the Tasmaina of the US system.
But if Clinton aggressively attempts to have those delegates reinstated, she may annoy more superdelegates enough to jump ship. It was they who excluded Florida.
135
Pancho Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
As it stands, Florida ISN’T a large delegate number state
There were 57 delegates
Hillary won about 1/2 Obama 1/3 and Edwards most of rest
not many net delegates in it
I heard on NPR this morning that in Kalifornia you have to win more than 62.5% of the votes in each district to actual win more delegates. If the win is anything less, then the delegates are split 50-50. I assume that if Hillary 60% Obama 40% then the delegates are 50-50. Can anyone confirm this?
I agree with Finnigan that Obama will be an excelletn candidate in future, but this is too soon.
As for my previous comment on subterfuge, Pancho and Asanque I agree that the Florida delegates don’t count and that Clinton probably did bend the rules. I wasn’t meaning to imply that Obama was underhanded either. What I meant was, that if Clinton led teh overall delegate count going into the convention, adn somehow all the super delegates voted with Obama to give him the noimination, that would be winning the nomination by subterfuge. IMO it would weaken his chances in November, and would be a bad outcome.
Finnigans, it depends on the district. They have between three and six delegates depending on Democratic turnout at recent elections. Where there are three, the result will be 2-1; where there are five, 3-2. Where there are four or six, you get the issue to which you refer.
The Finnigans , re California its even more complicated with odd number districts from 3 to 7 endings
If you got told , a few scotchs would not rease the headache
Sorry about the Mass question. CNN have changed the votes now from Macca 150K down to 130K. Not sure how with more counted be went backwards though.
Now William has told you …go for the scotch
George Panopoulos’ hair reckons Clinton is leading by 64 delegates total on US ABC.