Super Tuesday live

5.00pm. Missouri now being called for McCain, who leads Huckabee and Romney 33.1 per cent to 31.8 per cent and 29.3 per cent. Democratic contest still too close to call in Missouri, but Obama holds a slight lead and the trend has been favouring him for some time.

4.44pm. Fox calls Alaska for Obama. Slow progress in New Mexico.

4.36pm. Everyone now calling Arizona for Clinton.

4.25pm. Fox and ABC call Colorado for Romney.

4.23pm. CBS, Fox and ABC (though not CNN) calling McCain for California.

4.21pm. Obama has hit the lead in Missouri, 49.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent with 98 per cent reporting, after a number of outlets earlier called it for Clinton. Given that Democratic delegates are allocated proportionately, this is mostly of academic interest. Not so the state’s Republican race, a winner-takes-all contest in which McCain leads Huckabee and Romney 33.3 per cent to 32.0 per cent and 29.5 per cent, also with 98 per cent reporting. Fox and ABC are calling it for McCain, but not CNN.

4.13pm. NBC and Fox are both calling California for Clinton.

4.12pm. CBS calls Montana for Romney.

3.56pm. CNN now calling Utah for Obama: he leads 53-41 with 37 per cent reporting.

3.50pm. No significant results yet from Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego or Sacramento.

3.38pm. Clinton leads 55-33 in California with 10 per cent counted, but pronounced regional variations can presumably be expected from a state that boasts both Malibu and Compton.

3.37pm. CNN calling Minnesota for Romney.

3.32pm. Fox’s call of Utah for Obama might also have been premature (I heard it on Fox News Radio; not sure it ever appeared as called on the website). Only 13 per cent reporting and Obama leads 45-44. Presumably the Fox call was based on an exit poll.

3.29pm. Clinton leads 51-40 in Arizona with 48 per cent reporting, but nobody’s calling it.

3.25pm. Fox’s call of Tennessee for Huckabee may have been premature (they’re still saying it on Fox News Radio, but not on the website). He leads McCain 34.1 per cent to 32.4 per cent with 83 per cent of precincts reporting.

3.20pm. McCain gaining on Huckabee in Missouri: now 33-32-29, compared with 35-32-27 half an hour ago.

3.15pm. Fox calls Idaho for Obama and Missouri for Clinton.

3.15pm. Fox calls Colorado for Obama.

3.10pm. Fox says Clinton wins American Samoa, and Romney wins Montana.

3.03pm. Fox News Radio reports McCain doing better than Romney in California from absent votes, but Romney doing better in normal votes. Clinton just ahead of Obama.

3.00pm. Also not sure why nobody giving Romney North Dakota, where he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-23-21-20.

2.58pm. Not sure why nobody calling Montana for Romney: he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-24-23-17 with 89 per cent of precincts reporting.

2.53pm. Nobody calling Missouri Democratic either, but Clinton leads 53-44 with 68 per cent of precincts reporting.

2.48pm. No one is calling the Missouri Republican race: Huckabee leads McCain and Romney 35-32-27 with 66 per cent precincts reporting.

2.46pm. A couple of outlets calling Georgia for Huckabee.

2.38pm. Fox calls Arizona for McCain and Tennessee for Huckabee.

2.29pm. Fox calls Utah for Obama.

2.25pm. Minnesota being called for Obama, who seems to be picking up a lot of the smaller states. Expectations he would perform well in caucuses have apparently been confirmed, boding well for him in Colorado and Idaho.

2.21pm. Fox News Radio and CNN call Connecticut for Obama.

2.15pm. Huckabee giving a speech, and not sounding of a mind to withdraw.

2.14pm. ABC calls Kansas for Obama.

2.08pm. Fox calls Oklahoma for McCain.

2.06pm. ABC also calling Utah for Romney; no surprise of course that he should carry the Mormon state.

2.03pm. Fox News projects Obama as winner of North Dakota, giving him seven states to Clinton’s six, and Utah to Romney.

1.44pm. Romney coming third behind Huckabee in many more places than expected. Almost time to call the nomination for McCain, pending one or two larger states.

1.31pm. CNN, ABC and Fox News Radio say Obama has won Alabama, which was lineball in late polling.

1.21pm. Fox calls Alabama for Huckabee.

1.18pm. Chap on Fox News Radio says McCain has won New York.

1.09pm. Fox calls Delaware for Obama.

1.07pm. CNN calls New York for Clinton, which is no surprise.

12.55pm. Fox calls Massachusetts for Clinton.

12.54pm. Chat on Fox News Radio indicates McCain is looking very good overall.

12.50pm. Winner-takes-all Republican contest for Delaware called for McCain, which was considered likely but not certain.

12.44pm. Arkansas being called for Huckabee, who is clearly doing better than expected.

12.36pm. Tennessee also called for Clinton, which was expected.

12.35pm. CNN calls Arizona for Clinton and Huckabee. The latter would be a big surprise if accurate; polls had Clinton with only a narrow lead.

12.29pm. The Times on Democratic exit polls:

The AP survey’s findings, leaked to The Times tonight before polls closed, should be treated with caution because they have been wrong before. But the early findings showed Mr Obama winning Georgia by 74 points to 25, Alabama by 59 to 37, Illinois by 69 to 29 and Delaware by 55 to 42. He also had narrower leads, possibly within the margin of error, in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri. The poll indicated Mrs Clinton was leading by seven points in New York – less than expected – and Tennessee where she had an 11 point advantage, according to the poll. In Oklahoma and Arkansas she was shown as more than 30 points ahead. In California, she is shown just ahead, by perhaps as little as three percentage points.

12.13pm. CNN is also calling Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton on the basis of exit polling, though these of course are not winner-takes-all contests. On the Republican side, Illinois (district-level PR), Connecticut (winner takes all) and New Jersey (winner takes all) are being called for McCain, and Massachusetts (two-tier PR) for Romney. All of this is consistent with pre-poll expectations.

11.33am. Further to the previous entry: The Raw Story tells us “Geraghty’s leaks of exit poll data have not always proved accurate. For instance, his information before New Hampshire polls closed showed Senator Barack Obama defeating Senator Hillary Clinton.”

11.23am. More on exit polls from Jim Geraghty at the National Review:

The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual. Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent. Winner take all. If these numbers hold – and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney. Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent. Now on to the NYC-metro-area states: New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent. New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent. Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent. More or less what we expected. Now the big Mitt states: The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent. I think I’m ready to call that one. Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35. But in McCain’s home state… Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8. That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected. On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee… Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent. Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23. Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19. Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27. A barnburner! Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18. Not a big state, but it’s winner take all, so I’m sure Team Romney would take it. Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.

11.14am. Various media outlets calling Georgia for Obama purely on the basis of exit polls.

11.10am. Jason Zengerle at New Republic on exit polls:

The perils of posting these are obvious (President Kerry and all that), but the exit poll results that I’ve seen show: Obama trouncing Hillary in Georgia, Alabama, and Illinois; Hillary trouncing Obama in Arkansas and Oklahoma; Hillary with leads in New York and Tennessee; and Obama with leads in Delaware and Utah (although there’s only one wave of exit polls for Utah). Everywhere else–including Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Arizona, and California–is extremely close.

8.20am (Eastern Australian daylight time). This post will be used to cover today’s Super Tuesday developments, though I don’t promise that my coverage will be greatly timely or comprehensive. We’ll see how we go. The action will begin in earnest when polls in most of the eastern states close at 8pm US eastern time – noon eastern Australian daylight time. Polls in all-important California close three hours later. The one conspicuous exception is West Virginia, which uniquely held a state presidential convention today rather than a primary or caucuses. This has already wrapped up, resulting in Mick Huckabee securing the 18 delegates under the winner-takes-all vote. Huckabee won on the second round of voting after trailing Mitt Romney at the first by 464 votes (41 per cent) to 375 (33 per cent), with John McCain on 176 (16 per cent) and Ron Paul on 118 (10 per cent). Paul was then excluded, and at this point McCain’s supporters were reportedly instructed to throw their weight behind Huckabee to thwart Romney. This delivered victory to Huckabee with 567 (51.5 per cent) to Romney’s 521 (47.4 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,182 comments on “Super Tuesday live”

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  1. And the winner is….

    Mike Huckabee for West Virginia!

    (Can ya hear the banjos, can you hear them? They’re playing the Hymn of the Republic, it’s bewdiful!)

  2. If you believe Hillary is going to become the Democratic Candidate and presidency, get on now 🙂 Odds are fantastic for what the medium term trends show. I also would have though California would be neck and neck, but Obama now has a clear lead in the markets.

    I’m happy just to sit back and enjoy the show.

  3. I agree the odds on Hillary are fantastic! If you do the sums, even if Obama gets a majority in California, he will still trail overall thanks to Clinton’s clear lead in NY, Mass, Conn, etc. Why are people so convinced Obama will win today? I am not a Clinton fan but I think she will come out of today level at worst, and still in front overall.

  4. Basil Fawlty:
    “Have also heard reports of voter machines malfunctioning, and not being delivered to polling places, when will they get rid of those abominations on the face of democracy.”

    Was just reading a description of a somewhat chaotic voting attempt in LA:
    I continue to be astounded at the use of these machines, but the whole process (from that description and others) seems a little … amateurish?

  5. 3
    Stephen Connor

    He’s there to spoil for McCain and do deals. He is, after all, a politician, not a preacher (that’s just a very clever disguise)

    Apparently the first count in WV had Romney a nose in front, so they huddled, and McCains mob went to Hcuk (Reg Trage Mark).

    That’s why he’s there.

  6. Maybe we should keep this quote from Gore Vidal uppermost in our minds today:

    As societies grow decadent, the language grows decadent, too. Words are used to disguise, not to illuminate, action: you liberate a city by destroying it. Words are to confuse, so that at election time people will solemnly vote against their own interests.

    (it was on last night’s thread)

    When I saw this quote from a voter in Delaware, it reminded me:

    “I voted for McCain because I think he’s basically a centrist”

    And compared to Genghis Khan, that’s probably true…or truish, maybe!

  7. 8 Socrates, people are speaking on two levels here. There is the individual race in say california where bookies pay on the winner by percentage of vote won at one level and then there is the bigger picture level where a win would constitute the number of delegates won.

  8. One thing we can be sure of if Obama does ultimately take this race all the way to the convention and win it, is that Hillary Clinton will turn into a She Wolf and stalk every senior Democrat who sided with Obama, she’ll haunt the lives of every celebrity that backed him, she’ll be acid to anyone who declined her, and she will be the greatest impediment to an Obama Presidency that could possibly be imagined.

    One thing no one forgets about HRC is that she NEVER forgets.

  9. I think a delegate-split today on the Dem side (or something close to a split) will put Obama in a great position. If the Dem race goes down to the wire, it will go down to the superdelegates (20% of the pool). O

    ne would expect many of them to vote for the candidate most like to beat McCain: That ain’t HRC.

  10. Hearing rumours that Huckabee has announced his intended Head of Homeland Security…..

    Chuck Norris


    My source (a work mate) insists he is not joking….

  11. 14

    oh don’t worry, she can hang around the senate for a very long time yet!

    I don’t know if it will happen, but trying to imagine Hillary getting jilted for a charismatic younger man, is just too frightening to imagine. She hung onto the coattails of that other charismatic politician, the one she was supposed to be married to, and it nearly killed her. To be done over by another one is almost Greek Tragedy, and they NEVER have happy endings.

  12. 16

    He has put forward Chuck Norris for Secretary of Homeland Security AND Secretary of Defense. Saw the footage on the news late last night.


  13. codger-from the last thread re Macca’s mental state. There are basically four types of mental illness; the personality disorders, the “neuroses”, the “psychoses” and organic.
    We can rule out a full blown personality disorder as they never achieve long lasting success. Of the neuroses, he has some odd thoughts including a large collection of superstitious lucky objects but not enough for a diagnosis. He is clearly not schizophrenic and I doubt he is a depressive or bipolar and still functioning as well as he us at 71. That leaves the organic.
    The most likely of these is Alzheimer’s, which a 71 yo male has a 12% chance of having. He is emotionally labile, has poor speech patterns and is very vague but my impression is he hasn’t changed significantly in these. That’s not to say he doesn’t have early Alzheimer’s or that he couldn’t develop it, but interestingly very few famous and mentally active people develop Alzheimer’s (there is thought to be some protection due to high degrees of stimulation).

    If I had to call him anything, I’d say he had histrionic personality traits. Here is an in depth article about his mental state which agrees.'s_'histrionic'_personality.html

  14. Sorry that link is a bit dodgy. Here is the punchline which is a political truism in the US.

    “As a parting thought—lest we come too quickly to conclusions concerning John McCain’s character—consider this: With the exception of Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter, outgoing candidates have prevailed in every presidential contest since Franklin D. Roosevelt.”

    In terms of extroversion of the remaining three candidates, I’d suggest Macca is the most and Hillary is the least, but I’d be interested in others thoughts.

  15. 18

    Stone dead, one would have to think. She’s done her time in the Senate and grown her base and established the networks, to lose it now would finish her and the beast it would turn her into would not be pretty (that was the point I was musing over).

  16. On last night’s markets, the report on the US services sector was a shock to the system:

    “This is an indication for the first time that the bulk of the economy is contracting,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR. “It is sending people into recession panic mode here.”

    …it’s one thing for manufacturing to slow, but when the services sector shrinks, that’s the BIG bit of the economy.

    This bit of very gloomy news may have some impact on the voters, at least remind them of where the Republican primacy has brought them.

  17. On the battle of the issues (economy, security, reform) if Obama gets the nod, he’d would have to be much happier to be up against McCain than Romney. If there’s a rapid slide to recession McCain surely doesn’t have the conservative economic policy status to capitalise (which Romney could do in the public mind given some spinning of his time as a venture capitalist).

  18. KR

    One of my work colleagues just got back from the US two weeks ago and said there was a noticeable mod of pessimism on the streets regarding the economy. Even people like cab drivers etc seemed to realise that the were in recession now but the government had piled up such a huge debt thanks to the war in Iraq etc that there would be no easy solution. As I have said before the US is in recession now, and I think most people there know it; they just haven’t had it statistically confirmed. Any POTUS candidate who can look economically credible and articulate a solution will be on a winner.

  19. Morning all.

    First of all, a ramble. I think that at the end of the day there will be two competing claims: momentum vs inevitability. Few doubt that Clinton will be leading by the end of the night, the question is by how much. She will be spinning the result as ‘game over, so everyone fall in line now’ while Obama will be saying ‘it’s only just begun – look how far we’ve come.’ Who wins this mini battle remains to be seen.

    Second, while it’s momentarily peaceful, I thought I would check as to what websites we all have boomarked/earmarked for the day, if not the year. Having eventually gotten sick of trawling through a dozen links to find the sites I wanted, as well as forgetting, I figured a quick bookmark at the right place saves a lot of time and energy. The links below are specifically addressed at the respective political centres.

    Electoral Vote

    Oh, and of course PB.

    Anyone else have any decent sites which I have missed?

  20. 5% of precincts are in in GA. Obama leads 50:41. This is still early but it dosen’t suggest the crushing of Clinton that was predicted.

  21. Statisticaly why I believe it will be close over the 22 states delegates elected

    10 states have close Polls or unfortunately widely comflicting ones =54%
    including Masachussets , Missouri & New Jersey & California being =38%

    So almost 50% of the delegates are in States where its maybe close and primarily will be chosen proportionally meaning close Clinton/Obama delegate numbers each wins will be close

    BUT IF the first 3 states Polls all swing significantly to Clinton as SOME Polls have indicated there’s only approx 35 to 40 net delegates for her plus or minus California

    5 States are had NO Polls but only represent =6%
    Idaho,Kansas, New Mexico , noth Dakato & Demo’s abroad

    7 states have huge margins for either Clinton or Obama based on the non weighted average of the latest Polls

    For Clinton
    New York , Minesota , Oklahoma & Tenessee =24%

    For Obama
    Illinois ,Georgia & Utah=16%

    In these 7 large Poll margin states , the net gain for Clinton on the latest Polls
    would be 25 to 35 delegates

    I can not therefore see Clinton winning by more than 120 delegates IF everything goes her way …my prediction of 50 is more likely

  22. Shock of the night – Mcain is picking up the military vote, Huckabee is picking up the small town, white, racoon hat wearing vote and Romney is getting the wealthy white uppity vote.

    Anyone know which way the evangelicals are breaking?

  23. Presumably the same factors that apply in early calls of Australian elections (namely small rural booths reporting before big urban ones) could apply in the US? That would explain the relatively close Georgia results, at least – one would imagine that Obama’s support would be considerably greater in Atlanta (with its large African-American population) than in the rural areas.

  24. I haven’t been following all the states, but has a trend emerged?
    It seems from CNN that Hillary is winning many of the states. But were these as the polls indicated?
    Obama is winning Connecticut which was supposed to be line ball.
    Clinton is comfortably ahead in New Jersey.

    Which are the critical states?
    California is the key I presume, but any others?

  25. I know why Huckabee is doing well in the boondocks – Chuck Norris for Defense Secretary and Rick Flair (Wooooooooooooooooooooo!) for Homeland Security did it.

    Someone forgot to tell the hillbillies that he was joking and that Ric Flair wasnt really going to be putting the figure four on the local terrirrrsts, or liberals or whatever their calling them these days.

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