Michigan thread

To celebrate today’s primaries in Michigan, I hereby present presidential election open thread number two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

491 comments on “Michigan thread”

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  2. just to throw a thought in

    “7 pillars of wisdom” by t.e. lawrence (lawrence of arabia)
    quite a good narrative and also explains the Tribal nature of the area plus as a bonus its also a war diary descibing the erosion of ottoman control in the Mid east
    also the duplicity of england/france.

    personally syria is about the only continous identity that has existed in the area

    (nb:persians are not arabs)

  3. 350
    Adam

    Eh? I most certianly did not call you any such thing! Do you have some sort of problem with me? Sorry, I cannot understand what you are saying.

    I was trying to ascertain the real demographic facts about the region, and having read at length about this some time ago, needed to refresh myself on it. It is particularily pertinent, not on whether there was a place or people called “Palestinians” before the British named it. There wasn’t, as you rightly said, and I made no attempt to contradict your short history of it.

    However, you made this ascertion:

    Thus by 1947 the population had grown greatly, but almost the whole population, Arab and Jewish, were immigrants or the children or grand-children of immigrants.

    …and I offered one, (note:one) academic source which argued that this is NOT correct.

    I then said that your claim may be open to academic debate on the strength of the argument I cited.

    Please explain how that in any way calls you a ‘liar’?

    Adam, if you have some personal issue with me, please tell me what it is, as I’m at a complete loss to explain why you’ve said this.

  6. Well, I have to agree with Glen on two things today:

    First I also own Diplomacy and love playing it (haven’t done so in years though – any Adelaide players?) At the risk of teasing from Xanthippe, I also confess to playing various strategy games, including wargames like World in Flames, and have even written a few. Maybe we could convert Diplomacy to Australian politics: States instead of continents, electorates as areas, MHRs as foot soldiers, capture the most seats and become PM! Call it Democracy?

    Second, regarding the US, I think the chances of McCain and Clinton are still very good, and they deserve to be favourites. If Romney couldn’t win Michigan then he would have been dead. McCain is still ahead in many other states with more delegates.

    Similarly, I think Clinton is still the democrat favourite. Just because other democrat candidates didn’t campaign in Michigan, doesn’t mean they would have won. You can call it a hollow victory but a win is a win.

    I have said before that the US is probably already in recession, and economic statistics will just confirm it after the fact in 6 months time. Domestic issues like economic recession trump foreign wars in most people’s voting priorities. In that climate, I think that candidates who are perceived as handling domestic economics well will be advantaged. Experience wise, that must be Clinton and McCain. Overall, it should help the democrats, who could attack the republicans on economic grounds (war debt etc)

    lastly, great to see those late Indian wickets fall 🙂

    my 2 cents

  7. William, any chance of organising an on-line game of Diplomacy through Poll Bludger?

    Perhaps we could nominate players for various countries and then everybody sends in orders at a set time to you before they are released.

    My personal preference in Diplomacy is Russia with a strong preference for Russia/Turkey steamrollers – of course the perfidious turk must be dispatched at an appropriate moment too!

  8. Observing the sensitivity over the question of Middle Eastern politics, I can only suggest that the best read I have seen on the subject is Robert Fisk’s “The Great War for Civilisation”. To me it is an unbiased book, that chronicles suffering and attrocities by all sides – Palestinian, Israeli, Jordanian, Syrian, Iraqi and even Kuwaiti.

    I think many people feel strong allegiances to one side or another (and there are many more than two, as Fisk demonstrates!) which can colour one’s judgement. But one thing I think Fisk does prove – just as there was a cultural group that shared the Jewish religeon who emigrated to what is now Israel over the past century, and their descendants now predominantly control that land area, there is also a distinct arab cultural group called Palestinians, mosttly moslem, who have a legitimate claim to live in some of the same areas, which in most cases their predecessors occupied prior to the arrival of Jewish emigres. Any just settlement must recognise the rights of both groups. That means IMO, that Israel must give up some currently occupied territory.

  9. Did I miss something or are you being a bit precious Adam? How can KR’s comment that your views,

    “…may be open to academic scrutiny by demographers”

    be construed as calling you a liar? Have you ascended to the dizzy heights of Ponting and now claim to be above scrutiny?

    As for “historical facts” you well know that one person’s ‘facts’ are another’s ‘opinions’ and yet another’s ‘selective account’. Hence the varied views even among the well-informed academic scrutineers. History is never viewed though a clear lense and throwing the “L” word at those who differ helpful to honest discussion.

  11. FG 358
    Well that was what I was thinking too – I think KR is right to question, but that doesn’t mean anyone is beign called a liar. People can quote conflicting statistics on middle east history without lying. It is hard to get accurate information, and it is an incredibly complex situation. Whole ethnic groups have been shunted from one country to another over the years, and there is an obvious motivation for even “official” or government groups to quote selectively or misquote information that suit their side of any argument (and hide or even destroy damaging information). Many questions we will probably never have a reliable answer on.

  12. ESJ

    “just a thought re diplomacy

    perhaps you could run a thread whereby people nominate as country eg you could play as britain glen as germany ,adam as russia etc (i dont mind turkey)

    then-using comments people could issue commands – and since it will be real-time orders

    just a tought

    (gusface)”
    msg sent at 11.12 to william

    great minds think alike 🙂

  13. Ferny Grover, I think Adam got a bit confused over my reply to Mayo Feral (344/347) where he was discussing Israeli historical revisionism. I agreed with him, and somehow, I think, Adam has misconstrued this post as being directed at him, which it clearly is not, nor was intended to be.

    At the heart of the issue is the question about who lived in the region, both during the 19th century, and then up to 1948. Who they were culturally, and where did they come from? How long had they lived there, and how established were their communities? How did the different groups interact, and what was the basis for their claims to territorial rights?

    From the demographic evidence it is pretty clear that about 95% of the inhabitants in the earlier part of the 19th century were Arabic speakers and mosty Muslim. By late in the century there had been a small influx of J#wish settlers, but on one demographic study at least, there had NOT been a big influx of Arabs from elsewhere. By 1914 the J@wish population was still under 10%.

    This is a very interesting point of history and demography, and it does throw light on why the “Palestinians” are so intransigently demanding their historical right to live there.

    Whether the Palestinians have been their own worst enemy or not, is not the issue I was discussing, and so I’m somewhat flummoxed by Adam’s feeling personally attacked.

  14. KR at 347

    This is false, but apparently the lie is so well established that it is used by many to overlook the fact that there are a people virtually incarcerated, constatnly having their meagre remaining land encroached upon, treated like animals with daily constant humiliations and deprivations that are unspeakable.

    I think Adam was entirely correct as to intent or purpose of the accusation.

  15. Ah, so the word ‘lie’ is used by KR in 347 and Adam has taken it personally. OK, so now I understand the context, if not the response.

  17. The comment at 347 is ‘the lie’ that there was not a predominently Arabic population in the region, who had lived there continously for centuries.

    I sought to demonstrate that there is demographic evidence to support the fact that there was, and in no way was there any inference or intent to call Adam a ‘liar’. I utterly refute that.

    The evidence is in the numbers I quoted above, they may be challenged by anyone who can cite the research.

  18. 365

    Adam, I’m very sorry that you did, as I’ve always enjoyed your posts even when you give us a slap for being deluded lefties without a clue about US politics!

    (A criticism that’s quite valid on the whole, but I certainly would not take it personally!)

  19. KR, I’m not aware that anyone has ever denied that before 1947 the majority of the population of Mandate Palestine were Arabs. But even if they have, and even if they are wrong, characterising this as a “lie” is not the way to conduct a historical debate. That was not in any case the point I was seeking to make. My two points were (a) that this population was not very large, and (b) that it did not define itself as “Palestinian” before the arrival of nationalist ideology in the 1930s.

  23. Yep, Troy “Brastrap” Buswell has indeed replace Paul “Elmer Fudd” Omodei, after Elmer decided not to remnominate for Leader.

    And for those Libs trying to compare it to Rudd’s “Scores” episode, there is ONE major difference, the drunken and innappropriate behaviour occoured IN the Parliament.

  26. 368
    Adam

    I think if you refer to Mayo Ferals posts you’ll see that my rather ‘rhetorical’ use of ‘the lie’ is about Zionism’s refusal to allow a Palestinian state, it’s refusal to acknowledge that they even had any historical or socio-economic claims on the territory. In fact it’s almost been a kind of ‘terra nullius’ argument, and although you did not make it, you did infer that the bulk of the Arab population by 1948 were recent arrivals from elsewhere. I tried to show that this detail was not entirely correct, or at least could be academically debated, and that’s a pretty big difference to actually calling you a ‘liar’.

    My comments to you on that subject were specific, and to the point, and actually addressed to you personally, whereas the comment to Mayo Feral was clearly about the historical revisionism of Zionism. For example, I’d call the neocon argument about Saddam’s WMD a lie because there is plenty of evidence that they knew their ‘evidence’ was shonkiy and that important CIA refutations were simply ignored. But hey, let’s not go there, eh?

  27. WA Liberal Member Trevor Sprigg is Dead.

    [Trevor Sprigg, the Liberal member for Murdoch, has died in Fremantle Hospital. He was 51-years-old.

    The father of five children aged between 16 and 38-years-old suffered a heart attack while travelling to today’s Liberal Party leadership meeting at Parliament House.

    A Fremantle Hospital spokeswoman confirmed that Mr Sprigg had died a short time ago.]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=54867

    The Day has gotten worse for the WA Libs, and Buswell has his first challenge as leader with a By-election.

  31. Kirribilli Removals @ 347 said:

    Victors get to write the history as well as keep the spoils

    But to be fair, Israeli historians have been publishing what really happened since the 1950s, and much of what they’ve catalogued is only news in the west.

    Why? Probably partly because some just don’t like having their prejudices overturned (bad for the conscience apparently) – and the constant refrain, even here, that its all the Palestinians fault for rejecting partition when all the evidence shows it wouldn’t have made a flying fig’s worth of difference is a sobering indicator of this, and probably partly because many have felt, with good cause, that delving into these murky historical depths would only invite immediate accusations of antisemitism.

    Clearly there’s been massive revisionism about the Palestinians, even to the common perception that they did not really exist before WWI, so, well, you know, wha’t the big deal?

    Yeah, just like the “Abos” aka Homo terra nullius. There weren’t any here either until after “whitey” arrived and had settled all the “empty” land. Then they all just materialised out of thin air. Ain’t magic wonderful?

    KR, some things never change and equine excreta never smells any better no matter how many times it gets spread.

  32. “Zionism” (aka the state of Israel) accepted the principle of a Palestinian state in the Oslo Accords of 1993. In 2000 Barak and Clinton offered the Palestinians a state taking in 90% of the West Bank plus Gaza, with co-sovereignty over Jerusalem. Arafat rejected this at Camp David on the spurious issue of the “right of return,” which he knew no Israeli government could concede, but really because he was not willing to be remembered as the leader who conceded Israel’s right to exist. Since then we have had the suicide bombing campaign, the failure of which led to a political breakdown on the Palestinian side, so that there is now no-one with whom an Israeli government can reach an agreement. That was why Sharon decided on unilateral withdrawal. Sadly Olmert has lacked the courage to follow through on the Sharon Plan, and Netanyahu, the next likely Israeli PM, is opposed to it, so it will be a long time before the opportunity for a Palestinian state re-appears. The Palestinians can thank Arafat for that. As to the wall, the roadblocks etc, how did they expect Israel to respond to the suicide bombing campaign which killed 1000 Israeli civilians?

  33. I would say some on this site are implacably anti-Israel and closed to arguments to the contrary so there is no point continuing the debate.

  34. Frank,

    I suspect a byelection will result in the Libs giving the ALP a shelacking, and Buswell a boost.

    As long as he keeps away from the lingerie

  35. I’ve no dispute with your analysis of Arafat’s intransigence and duplicity, but the fact remains, Israelis kill Palestinians in a ratio of about 10:1, have physically, economically and pyschologically oppressed them while mostly making gestures towards settling the issue. This is pretty tragic for those born into it, and their is no shortage of fault on both sides.

  36. Frank Calabrese @ 373 – Kev07-? may have been drunk when at Scores but the only “innappropriate behaviour” was the BS spread by the Libs and some of Rupert’s rags that Rudd had groped the strippers.

  38. By-elections are conducted under the same boundries as in the election that elected the member who is retiring/dead.

  41. William,

    Can we please have a thread on the latest WA Liberal Leadership and subsequent By-Election – perhaps you can move the comments here to that thread ?

  43. Adam, I don’t doubt you believe the Israelis will withdraw from the West Bank just as they did from Gaza, but I very much doubt it for two reasons.

    The minor, though still hugely significant, reason is that whereas the number of settlers in Gaza was small, 10,000 or so, there are hundreds of thousands of them in the WB. Thats a lot of votes, and a lot of emotional strings that will be pulled.

    The major reason is the water in the aquifers under the West Bank. The important ones do not penetrate into Israel proper so it would loose control of a lot of the water it needs if it simply walked away as you believe it will.

    As admitted by then Israeli Foreign Minister, Shlomo Ben-Ami, that water was a major deal breaker in the Clinton mediated peace talks. Israel insisted on continued total control of it in perpetuity. No Palestinian would be able to sink a well without getting permission, not from his government, but the Israeli water authority.

    In compensation (which was also part of the compensation for WB land retained for settlers), Israel offered a parcel of land in the Negev Desert amounting to about 10% of the land to be retained on the WB. Not only worthless, but some of it is a large former toxic waste dump! Note that no ongoing payments for the water taken was offered, just a one off transfer of partially toxic, waterless desert.

    Any Palestinian state stupid enough to accept this would be severely crippled economically because it could not expand its industry and agriculture with the water needed going elsewhere. It would also impose severe population limits.

    There were also many other conditions that would have limited Palestinian authority: continued Israeli control of the state’s airspace and borders, including Israeli border police and troops permanently stationed along the Palestinian borders with Egypt and Jordan and control of shipping into Gaza ports, the right for Israeli troops to enter at any time, for any reason, trade restrictions etc., – as Arafat lamented Palestine would be just 3 Bantustans and an outdoor prison, not a state – but water was one of the biggest elephants in the room.

  45. Libs appear to have ignored the wowsers that brought down Brogden in electing Buswell.

    The blokey image could be a plus for him, to reject him because of the bra strap joke would have brought the accusations that the party was beholden to fundies.

    By the way can any one explain the trick?

  47. ESJ – I would say some most on this site are implacably anti-Israel Lib/Nat governments and closed to arguments to the contrary so there is no point continuing the debate.

    !

  49. Didn’t the WA Libs try the “blokey image” thing with Matt Birney? That went well as I recall.

    I’m losing track of state Liberal leaders. Perhaps William could have a little box on his front page, headed “Today’s Liberal Leaders.”

  50. Adam @ 392 ‘I’ word door prize: a weekend with Ron & Nessy on teh Game over at teh Poss. Go Sharma.
    Mayo @ 397 ESJ chinleading again…ouch

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