Michigan thread

To celebrate today’s primaries in Michigan, I hereby present presidential election open thread number two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

491 comments on “Michigan thread”

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  1. It’s a bit of a movie script for Romney, eh? Home state boy, made good, comes and splashes lots of moola around and gets the unemployed folk from the empty car factories of Detroit to join his chorus line.

    Shall we give it a title?

    How about: “The Full Mitty”?

    On second thoughts,maybe not.

  2. I agree Mayo and Centre. The Head of State in a Westminster system is an apolitical, and largely symbolic office. Nonetheless, it is a position that can wield great moral leadership, as William Deane so ably showed. If we want to elect a President, we might as well roll the Head of Government (the PM) and the Head of State into the one office like the Americans have done. The Republic of Australia’s future head of state (I don’t like the title “President” and would happily stick with Governor-General) should be appointed by a 2/3 majority of both houses of parliament from a list of nominees selected by a nominating body.

  3. More interesting than Mitt’s ‘comeback’, is the news of Citigroup’s humungous $10 billion loss in the last quarter.

    Ooooooouch!

    But wait, there’s more bad news: credit card, auto and personal loans in the all the states were the housing crisis is really hurting are seeing rising defaults.

    As they say, Wall Street woes are migrating to Main Street.

    But hey, no prob, just go hat in hand to the Arabs and Asians and sell off more of the farm, coz they’ve got trillions just sitting around waiting to invest. And what’s really incredible is that they can ask for hefty returns for it, around 10%!

    When capital is lent to poor, indebted third world countries, lenders demand a risk premium. Ten percent is almost Banana Republic territory.

    That’s the big story.

  4. ESJ – if you say so. Apart from being offended, at a former professional level, by the gross illegality of the whole, sad mess, its not a particularly personal concern except as it affects a greater interest which shares some of the same historical circumstances, Tibet.

    Plus, coming from a family which not that long ago had very large land holdings and still has an extended family connection to a sizable acreage, there is more than a little naked self interest. For if you accept the precedents established by Israel/Palestine and China/Tibet then you have to also accept that, especially in countries with our history, none of your property is truly yours (unless you can trace a connection over 300,000 generations). The former owners could legally reclaim it at any time without having to pay a cent in compensation.

    And where do you draw a line? Rome ruled England for a lot longer than the Israelites ruled Israel, (or non native Australians, Americans, Canadians and New Zealanders have claimed parts of our respective lands). So does Italy have a claim on all the land south of Hadrian’s Wall?

    If you believe this is an unlikely scenario then I would remind you that the peoples to our north have also been involved with our northern lands and peoples for a very, very long time. If, as an example, climate change drives people to higher latitudes, which is the prediction, what claims could be made by those peoples based on such precedent, and what would the rest of the world do? To be consistent, about the only help we could expect is in packing!

  5. Mayo

    “So does Italy have a claim on all the land south of Hadrian’s Wall?”

    Only if they can show us a very old book that says god gave it to them. It’s like a lease in perpetuity, and they’ve got the right to evict and kill anyone who disagrees.

    Surely, you can understand that?

  7. Imagine in Australia if we had a political system of some people voting and some people not voting.

    Some people being allowed to vote and some people not being allowed to vote.

    Labor supporters voting for, say, a Costello because we would think that he’d lose and Liberal voters voting for, say, a Latham because they would think that he’d lose.

    Then finally, people may vote for, say, Abbott, only for the party to conclude he’s a dud and replace him with Turnbull.

    Only in the good ol’ USA thank you.

  8. #201 – yes, Huckabee would be the dream candidate. I heard on CNN this afternoon that there is a Huckabee ‘s speech circulating where he said he would change the US Constitution so that it is conformed to God’s Law. Somebody should tell him there is one already and it is called the Shariah Laws.

  9. KR – seeing as how you asked, such a documents has, very, very recently come into my possession which I’d be willing to sell to the Italians for a small consideration. Um, remind me, did they have ballpoint pens 3,000 years ago? 😉

    Seriously, there isn’t a tribal people that doesn’t claim some divine connection to their land. If you believe in such things how can you deny the possibility that the same deity or deities made similar promises to peoples everywhere?

    I’m not an expert, but I ‘ve been told the lease claimed by a current party is not quite as permanent as the leassors’ claim. Apparently, some specific terms hasn’t been met for a millennia or two and the lease document states that it’s null and void if these are ignored.

  10. There’s a lesson that 40% of voting, or over 200 thousand people went out of there way to attend a primary in freezing whether not to vote for a candidate, but to register their dislike of Hillary. This isnt candidates who just support Obama or whatever, many of whom would stay home without a candidate on the ballet, this is people going out of their way to say they will not vote for her. She is the only dem who can lose this election for the Dems. She is another Kerry-esqe safety first establishment figure.

  11. Centre: Now imagine a country where tiny cliques of party office holders nominate parliamentary candidates, a little over half of whom get to choose a head of government without reference to either party supporters or the public at large. Imagine also that the victorious party in this winner-takes-all system quite frequently wins power with fewer votes than its opponent. Now top it all off with a de facto head of state who possesses almost dictatorial reserve powers with no democratic mandate of any kind.

  13. ESJ, Glen:

    You both seem to agree that McCain at 71 is too old to be POTUS – what is the youngest someone can run and still serve two terms – i would say that even Reagan in hindsight was too old for two terms.

  14. The “Hucks” at work

    (I)n Warren, Michigan on Monday, Huckabee declared his personal crusade to amend the Constitution by copying and pasting from the Bible:

    “I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution. But I believe it’s a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living God. And thats what we need to do is amend the Constitution so it’s in God’s standards rather than trying to change God’s standards so it lines up with some contemporary view of how we treat each other and how we treat the family.”

  15. But Adam,

    Isn’t it just as likely that Romney was appealing to the Republican minority amongst the car workers and other heavy industries based in that area. After all, he was running the line that these jobs could be brought back, while McCain was saying Michigan needed to move into new fields. The industrial areas may be heavily Democrat, but there are still plenty of Republicans there, and the exit polls suggest that Romney won these votes, while McCain dominated amongst independents and the small number of Democrats who voted.

  20. 264
    red wombat

    Huckster would promise them the Christian Caliphate if he thought he could squeeze more votes out of it!

    Shyster, Huckster, shmuckster…same difference. But there’s plenty who are silly enough to buy this holy roller claptrap.

    Amazing, isn’t it? Even after Reagan and George both shafted the christian right by calling them in to vote and then not bringing down hellfire and damnation on the ‘sinners’ as they’d all probably prayed for.

    They fall for it, over and over. Truly, ’tis miraculous!!

  21. Yes William, nice little democracy you have mentioned there. In your opinion how do you rank our system of government relative to the rest of the world? I think we’re not doing to badly IMHO.

  22. Chris from Edgecliff @195,
    While in principle I agree with you that under circumstances they could lose states I feel not all of the ones u mentioned were not the best examples.

    They will not lose Minnesota for two reasons. 1st I bring your attention to the 1984 election where the Dems only won one state (guess which one). Secondly the bridge collapse that killed those people. When you look into the details of it you can see they wont be voting republican any time soon. Carol Molnau Lieutenant Governor and commissioner for Department of Transportation had previously admitted to not reading bridge inspection reports. This along with other scandals linked to budget cuts and deregulation have tainted Republican ideology.

    I also think Wisconsin is pretty safe. They have won it continuously since the 1988 when they only won 9 states. That and alot of bad headline about iraq. In the past couple of months Wisconsin seems very over represented in the body count despite it “apparently” getting so much better.

    You are right that New Hampshire and Pennsylvania a vulnerable though.

    I’m surprised you missed Michigan which can be vulnerable and abit unpredictable.

    Edward StJohn @ 68 I must say I overlooked your comments about the coal miners earlier in West Virginia. That makes a lot of sense and helps complete the picture.

  26. and how many overseas born Australian prime ministers have we had Mrs Pierce?

    The provision was put in as a reaction to rule by the British monarch and monarchical sympathisers.

  27. ESJ,
    Without checking, I’d say all up to and including Hughes (i.e. prior to Bruce) were foreign born.
    For demographic reasons – when migrants became a smaller proportion of the population – it was unlikely that Australia would have a foreign-born Prime Minister in the period between, say, the 1920s and 1980s. Since the migrants of the post-World War II period had restricted possibilities for political engagement, it’s only been realistic to expect those arriving later to have a chance of forcing their way up the greasy pole. Perhaps we will have to wait for Julia Gillard to get the gig.

  28. ESJ: I’m not a little “s” on the end of “Mr”

    Peter: I agree – the “natural-born” clause in the USA is a sad xenophobic relic.

  29. Mayo @225
    Thanks for that clear and concise explanation re the Israeli/Palestinian situ.
    Will add to my archive of “PB”s Top Hits” for future reference.

  30. The “no foreign born” rule in the US presidential elections is a natural reflection of the political situation at the time. No doubt the Australian “fathers” considered the matter for our circumstances and decided that the rule was unnecessary. They would not have considered British or other white, english speaking people to be foreigners. King O’Malley, a member of the first Parliament, was variously claimed to be from the United States(he imposed Prohibition on Canberra), British Canada and even possibly Newfoundland (then a separate Dominion). The white Australia policy and the social impossibility of resident Chinese, Afghan or Aboriginal candidates succeeding would have eased any concerns that such a formality would be required.

  32. Edmund Barton, our first PM, was born in Sydney (Glebe) and Alfred Deakin, the second, in Melbourne (Fitzroy).

    Interestingly, the first three Labor PMs were born overseas – Watson in Chile, Fisher in Scotland and Hughes in London (of Welsh parents).

  34. Watson, Reid, Fisher, Cook and Hughes were born outside Australia, all in the UK except Watson, who was born in Valparaiso. His Austrian father, Johan Christian Tanck, was a sailor. His mother left Johan and moved to NZ, where she married a Mr Watson. The next PM born outside Australia will probably be Penny Wong, born in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia. 🙂

    Just remember that the “native born” clause is all that stands between us and President Schwartzenegger, and be grateful.

  35. oh, I don’t know about that, surely the Terminator can just vapourise the Constitution and declare himself ruler of the world, can’t he? George is doing a pretty good job of trashing the thing.

  36. McCain was NOT born in the US BTW. He was born in the Panama Canal Zone which was partly under US control but was technically in another country ie Panama. If Andrew Robb was a Democrat, this fact would come up about four days before the POTUS election and McCain’s possible ineligibility would be mentioned.
    There was also a candidate George Romney who ran in 68 who was born in Mexico.

  37. Dyno @ 242 – But, unless you live in Rudds electorate, his name wasn’t on your ballot paper, so whatever your expectations they had no legal basis. OTOH, the next US Prez’s name will be on the ballot for all American voters.

    In the event of a ‘hung’ electoral college the House of Representatives selects the President from the 3 candidates with the most college ‘pledges’ and the Senate decides the VP. The House has twice had to select the President, 1801 (Thomas Jefferson) and 1825 (John Quincy Adams – who had lost on the popular vote).

    Interestingly, it took 36 votes of the House before Jefferson finally got the nod. Seems even founding fathers of the nation are no sure thing.

  39. Yes Diogenes, he was actually born George Romero and changed his name when he came to America courtesy of sponsorship by the Mormon Church.

  42. George Romney was NOT born “George Romero”. His was born in Mexico because his American-born father, Gaskell Romney, went there to escape persecution of Mormons. The “native born” clause doesn’t mean you literally have to be born in the US. Children born abroad of US citizens are eligible to be President.

    McMahon’s sexuality is the subject of much rumour but no known facts. Although he married late he fathered three children, not that that necessarily proves anything.

  45. ESJ- George Romero is the legendary horror film director. He created the seminal zombie classics “Dawn of the Dead” and “Night of the Living Dead”. You really are a very bad man.

  46. To get 3% in a State where you’ve barely stepped foot in is pretty darn good IMHO.

    This has worked out brilliantly for Rudy, you have three people winning Primaries and no clear favourite, considering the time Rudy has spent in Florida he will come away with the delegates and then have a good chance in Feb5. McCain has hardly campaigned in Florida and is spending time in SC atm so Giuliani should have the edge if the liberal media don’t keep writing stories about him losing to Ron Paul in primaries where he’s hardly campaigned!

    Predictions
    Nevada-Romney or Giuliani
    South Carolina-Huckabee or McCain
    Florida-Giuliani

    Centre lets face facts while the 47 partition did give more land to Israel it was because the expected immigration into the country and in the end it was more like 50/50 as alot of designated Israeli land was in the Negev desert! Its a fair deal with Jerusalem a UN designated city IMHO its far better than whatever the Palestinians will get now…greed brings bad Karma!

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