Newspoll is keeping up the good work in the post-federal election lull with a series of state polls, today following last week’s Victorian and South Australian polls with a survey showing the Coalition taking a narrow lead in Western Australia. The following charts show how Newspoll has tracked the progress of the Bracks/Brumby, Gallop/Carpenter and Rann governments.
93
steve
Yeah, a billionare’s blog site of fans in love with his great civil liberties agenda! Made me laugh too.
Almost as much as one descritpion of Rudy I came across on one blog: 9ui11iani
That takes the cake!
Things just get better in Pakistan with reports of Bhutto being about to tip the bucket on “proof” of upcoming electoral fraud.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/01/2129959.htm
Are we having predictions for the Iowa primaries yet? If so, I’m going for Clinton and McCain to win the first round based on concerns about Middle East stability.
101
Diogenes
Sorry to be pedantic, but Iowa have what is known as ‘caucuses’. Weren’t you here the other day?
But apart from that, I really doubt the Pakistan assasination will have much bearing in Iowa, and besides, McCain’s polling pretty badly there, but much better in New Hampshire (where they do have ‘primaries’!)
Happy New Year!
82 on state elections vs federal timing, methinx most s/t electoral laws have to shift their voting day if they are called for the same day. It happened with ACT election once, ‘berrans voted two consecutive Sats. Not to mention, the confusion of having both as 6-week campaigns running simultaneously. ACT now has 4-year fixed terms starting from 2004 on second Sat in October, so next is Oct 2008.
ACT is stable Labor-Minority govt – so at this stage, barring a scandal is unlikely to fall to the latest unknown nobody Liberal whats-his-name-again
Diogenes, here’s the ‘on the ground’ local media polling from a few hours ago:
DES MOINES — The highly anticipated final poll from The Des Moines Register is out and it has some surprising news: Senator Barack Obama appears to have widened his lead over his Democratic rivals, with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton coming in second and former Senator John Edwards a close third.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee came in first, with 32 percent of those polled, to 26 for Mitt Romney. John McCain came in third with 13 percent.
I’ve had money on Obama and Huckabee for a while so I’m biased! LOL
102 KR- Having reviewed all the available evidence, I humbly defer to your superior knowledge, although I think the Bhutto assassination is bigger news in the US than here.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/davidnason/index.php/theaustralian/comments/tragedy_recasts_the_race
On a note with less hubris, I came across this quote today which reminded me of the Liberals. It’s crude but effective.
“Simple arithmetic will tell you how much you lost by but only your ass can tell you how bad the whipping was”.
KR @ 84 – [Steve, I think JWH should thank his lucky stars that we don’t treat ex-Prime Ministers like they do in Pakistan!] True, but I wouldn’t mind the odd bit of biff during Question Time like they do it in South Korea! 😉
On U.S. politics:
Obama will win the Dem candidacy
It doesn’t matter who wins the Repug candidacy.
The people want change. Obama represents as much change as they are allowed.
Hillary represents the 4th successive generation of the Bush/Clinton criminal cartel and she will go down.
The people have been temporarily awoken and for a very short time won’t be moulded by the MSM.
They will rebel….within the set parameters of course.
Obama is change. Obama will be President.
105
Diogenes
You’re right that Pakistan is big news, I mean Bush virtually stacked his entire ‘war on terrorism’ thing on Musharraf rounding up the bin Laden/Taliban gangs, not to mention the billions they’ve poured into the dictators coffers (there’s another story!), but politically in Iowa? Nup, it won’t be what drags them out in the snow to stand around in cold halls chanting and cheering. Sorry, it’s Iowa we’re talking about here, not Washington DC!
Just a few days before Bhutto’s assasination, the NY TImes did a big story on how the US State Dept guys went up into Warziristan and looked for how well all their dough was being spent. Ah, the shock was they found lots of old rifles and a handful of shells ‘protecting’ the borders. Ooops, where do you think those billions went?
Ask the Taliban, they might have a few ideas.
106
MayoFeral
I recall that Taiwan has a pretty ‘robust’ debating style too! Maybe we could have some that as well.
Happy New Year!
Basil Fawlty (#88)… I think that you have over-estimated the QLD opposition.
To be fair however, all that they appear to lack are policies; purpose; unity; stability; leadership and talent.
The state electoral redistribution is also likely, in my view, to see two or three National Party seats disappear and be ‘replaced’ by seats in the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast areas, which will presumably, but not necessarily, be Liberal v Labor contests. Other demographic changes suggest that the National Party seats of Beaudesert and Lockyer will fall to the ALP, barring too big an overall anti-labor swing.
It will be interesting to see if in these circumstances, the Liberals are finally willing to bite the bullet and go all out try to head the Nationals in terms of seats won, even at the expense of ‘throwing’ the next election by engaging in ‘three corner contests’.
One issue as I understand it, is that the coalition parties have already agreed to contest an even number of seats next time, which (ignoring the fact that there are an odd 89 seats in QLD) means that as the Liberals contested 49 last time and the Nationals 40, that the Liberals should actually contest 4 less seats next time than the did last time. I see more troubles ahead for the ‘dynamic duo’.
KR- Given the propensity the GOP has for choosing mindless cretins as their presidential candidate, presumably allowing them to install power-hungry neocons into important positions to act autonomously with complete impunity, I would be pretty comfortable with Huckabee being their choice as he seems to fit the bill perfectly. At the risk of being inflammatory, I think evolution-deniers are right up there with Holocaust-deniers in credibility.
Happy New Year!
RE Queensland
labors’s vote in Brisbane is excellent I think they hold all but 2 seats
For there to be a change of Govt there must be more seats won by the libs than the nats. but the nats hold more seats currently than the libs
this is their problem which will still be there for maybe the next 2 terms as well
Anna Bligh almost cannot lose
re 99 Turning Worm
Well, as one of those Green supporters I’m a little bemused by being dubbed “elitist”, especially as this has become a term used to abuse anyone who puts a non-conservative spin on national or global affairs (you know the line – “inner-city latte-sipping elites”). While it might be just your impression but I’d prefer a more substantive reply.
As to the comment about rednecks previously – I am genuinely interested because that (calling someone a redneck) has cropped up in too many conversations, yet I’ve also worked with farmers, “westies” etc (ie; those often labeled redneck) over the years and have often found that once you get past the barriers they are often interesting & good people to yarn to (but not all – just like some inner-city-latte-elite’s really are shallower than a saucer).
I’ve often thought its a “tribal grouping” thing – you look different, talk different, act different, therefore you can’t be like me so must be excluded in some way. “Rednecks” might be how some people describe those who have a particular style, expression and activity as a way of creating an “other”. BTW, rednecks were what Boers called the British in South Africa – cos they used to get burnt in the fierce sun. But it was also about the British failure to adapt, ignorance of the country and people, and that creation of an “other” again.
But there you go, sounding like some sort of over-educated i-c-l-s-e again. Which I’m not (too much milk in latte – blech!).
Stewart J, if you must persist,
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/776?cp=8
please see post 710
Am I not as an observer to draw a conclusion from that post that the candidate in question thinks himself above the voters in his electorate?
TurningWorm, even if it’s true that Bill W thinks himself above the voters in his electorate (and this is debatable), it doesn’t follow that all Greens consider themselves to be better than others.
104
Rain
‘ACT is stable Labor-Minority govt – so at this stage, barring a scandal is unlikely to fall to the latest unknown nobody Liberal whats-his-name-again’
Actually I think it’s a labor majority govt
MALCOLM Fraser has reopened his long-running feud with John Howard, accusing Mr Howard of opposing Australia’s large intake of refugees after the Vietnam War.
Mr Fraser claims Mr Howard approached him in a corridor following a cabinet meeting in May 1977 and said: “We don’t want too many of these people. We’re doing this just for show, aren’t we?”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22993100-601,00.html
82 & 104
Section 394 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act prohibits the holding of a state election or referendum on the same day as a federal election ‘without the authority of the Governor-General’.
Des Moines Register poll has Democrat voter preferences at –
Barack Obama 32%
Hillary Clinton 25%
John Edwards 24%
Good for Obama. As a a single state it’s pretty insignificant on it’s own but as they say in the US, “momentum is everything”.
I’m basically with Harry H on Conroy – it’ll be very interesting to see how he shapes up. That’s not to say his factional opponent, The Right Honourable Mr K. Carr, is anything special, unless of course Julia thinks he is, in which case he’s just fantastic – and when can I start my new job in DEEWR?
Ahh, doesn’t everyone just have their price in this jaded century?
Kevvie’s going fine so far – if he goes anywhere near doing anything substantial about the national hospital crisis and climate change ( with Penny already doing well in The Battle of Bali) he’ll just about rule for a decade.
I think he has shown very good judgement in most, if not all, of the senior cabinet appointments, especially Wong and Faulkner. I just love Faulkner as ‘Special Minister of State’ ( SMOS) – so Yes Minister – if the public service tells Kevvie one story and SMOS finds out it’s rubbish ( which will be part of his job), then that head or heads will roll, public servants or ministers etc. And that’s just as it should be. A serious ‘search and destroy’ man is Faulkner – and doesn’t every new Government need one? The PM certainly looks like he has thought long and hard about the transition to Government -and it’s gone great so far.
I’ve heard that the previous regime even wiped the hard drives of many government computers, to cover their nefarious activities and sabotage the incoming regime. Mr Rudd should hold a Judicial Inquiry about this issue. I’m sure there will be plenty of public servants just salivating at the opportunity to dump on the previous regime – I know some of these people and they are very keen to air the previous regime’s ‘dirty laundry’ in the IR portfolio in particular.
This computer wipeout, if true, is just scandalous – and throw in a Royal Commission on AWB. Downer’s arse needs to be nailed to the wall, along with the Rodent on this issue. Let’s see if the new regime can’t find a “Petrov” lurking somewhere, with links to the Coalition.
But to return to the positive – JWH of course soon found out that too many ministerial heads rolling too early is not good – just reshuffle the duds to lesser portfolios in the time-honoured fashion, until the factions agree to replace them.
But finally to unfinished 07 business – I have attempted to pay Mr Bowe what I believe I promised ( $20 for every ALP seat above 80). Last I saw ALP had 83, so have sent $60 to support Dr Bowe (if doctorate not yet conferred, then hopefully it’s just a formality – I have friends who have suffered to attain doctorates. I try to appreciate their ‘suffering’. They are without exception persons of courage and determination.)
Great Work Mr Bowe and Happy “Mates 08” to all You Bludgers,
Cheers,
The Spaz.
Diogenes
You have to hand it to the Republicans for their capacity to pick duds, but they also have this amazing capacity to not notice it’s a dead horse until it’s well and truly stinking! Bush is one such, and the problem is that anyone who wants to follow in his neoconservative footsteps will be carrying a lot of baggage after this last abysmal presidency.
I think nationally McCain is the only credible candidate, but he’s too old, and Huckers will get trashed by any of the three serious Democrat candidates (or even Dodds or Biden for that matter). There’s a colossal collapse of Republican impetus thanks to Bush’s shockingly corrupt and inept administration so they kind of know that whoever they put up will get trounced. It’s become a matter of internal politics, ie who will lose with the right constituency least damaged.
But it’s a great show. Bring it on, as the man said!
But is Hiliary any better
KR @ 122
I wouldn’t underestimate (or is that overestimate?) the US voter. They did elect George W twice.
Although it seems to us that the Democrats have 3 quality candidates, each are vulnerable to attacks from the right (for different reasons) and it’s not going to be a shoo-in.
But you are right, it is going to be a great show.
If McCain is the only serious contender for the Republican ticket, then the Southern hicks won’t turn up to vote on election day.
Consider how much more complicated our hobby would be in America – over there it’s not just how people will vote, but who will vote.
KR if you keep backing winners at this rate you are going to have to get your dry cleaners to mend in a deeper pocket.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/01/obama-rides-wave-of-lates_n_79082.html
124
Winston
I think the correct term here is “misunderestimate” as coined by the great word mangler himself, George W Bush.
netvegetable:
I think that’s what is going to happen: lots of Republicans will have to stay home in November and the rest will have to hold their nose. Essentially there is a major fracturing occuring between the religious right and the secular conservatives, and what Rove once brought together is now rent assunder.
It’s funny, but I read one conservative who said that what America needs now is a strong christian leadership! Crikey, I thought that’s what they supposedly had now! The loony religious right always get suckered into thinking they can overturn the constitution and the Republicans were (once) masters of seducing them with this notion. But all is lost now, and the party is tearing itself apart.
(When Ann Coulter is disembowelling the Southern Baptist Huckabee because he supported the “consitutional right to sodomy” ya just kinda know it’s going to be ugly! Hahahaha!!)
Contrary to some of the views propsgated here and elsewhere, Steve Conroy is a genius. He is my early tip for Politician of the year. He has united the right wing nut bags and the lefterati with his announcement on the ISP filters. World Peace is imminent. Oh joy!
Of course they all say it is evidence of some vast left/right (choose your brand)conspiracy that will deny unfettered access to bestiality videos for minors. This is a bad thing apparently. Armegeddon cannot be far away with this much State interference..
With so much “Lerv”, Conroy must be doing something right.
http://timblair.net/ee/index.php/weblog/comments/rudd_flanders/
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/12/31/new-govt-same-as-the-old-except-worse/
imagine if they did this in australia?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/080101/19/15esi.html
Turning Worm at 115
Ah, but Bill W is a worker himself – an AMWU Shop delegate to boot – (and see his other posts prior to the announcement of the election). Yes, his use of the word redneck may be open to misunderstanding, but maybe he was also describing what I think of as the “Shire mentality” here in NSW – a sort of homogeneous, white, ignorant (as in uneducated) and unthinking group mentality which is quite exclusive – it excludes others (note the Cronulla riots). I also think of the Alan Jones’, John Laws’, Piers’, Malcolm’s, Andrew’s etc who spout unthinking, attacking, rhetoric designed to engage people solely at a gut level.
Perhaps, though, it is also a long bow to describe the whole party from this one instance, or from over-eager individuals?
Having followed a black smoke belching truck for some minutes this morning, the sooner they bring in similar laws here the better, cobber. I’m still coughing like mad to rid my remaining fully functional lung from the crud.
The fine particulates emitted by engines, especially diesels, are much worse than cigarette smoke and nearly as deadly as wood smoke.
Further evidence to be wary of electronic voting:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/010108L.shtml
I see John Edwards has no Australian supporters (perhaps apart from Andrew Leigh), despite being the furthest left of the big three and as a white guy from the south being a strong presidential candidate.
And further Bhutto Report: Musharraf planned to fix elections
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/010108Z.shtml
Na, on this Bill’s actually right, it’s truly bogan central, a wasteland.
Bill fits right in 😉
Stewart J, for as long as the parties who wish to claim the left, continue to look down upon the very people they should be scrambling to win back from the conservatives, the political discourse in this country will never progress.
The post I highlighted is not the sole basis for my opinion on the Greens, just one of the more provocative examples. Forgive me for not having the will to conduct a forensic examination of every post made by a Greens supporter over the course of the campaign. I would have thought the Greens would be doing that work themselves as part of their post-election analysis, as should all parties. The post I highlighted serves to demonstrate a pattern of behaviour which I have observed from the Greens, a pattern which your last post feeds into quite nicely.
mayo feral 131
I reckon it’d be great – cars out of the city.
I wouldn’t bag only diesels though, petrol exhausts might not produce the same plumes of smoke a diesel does, but its becausethe particulates coming out petrol exhaust is smaller and less visible. this is doesn’t mean they dont exist or are less toxic, infact they are lighter and more freeborne in the atmosphere.
crikey are people still bagging the greens???? when does this argument finish?
Turning Worm @135
Sorry, not providing evidence and a vague “impression” doesn’t cut it for me. I make my comments regarding “Rednecks” in the interest of understanding anyone with a different viewpoint to mine, and being able to have a dialogue with them, not simply to vilify or glorify them. And I’m not entirely sure that eulogising the “voters” is any different from the old cry of “the silent majority” – uncheckable, untestable and useful only to try and back questionable claims.
IF, however, you are instead referring to a perceived tone in published material (and not off-hand remarks from one or two individuals) then fair enough – there is a tendency to over-intellectualise our material and make it inaccessible (or at least, less accessible) to many people. That IS part of any election review – and can include ill-conceived or poorly explained policy. But I wont resile from defending policy and attitudes that say exclusion, bigottry, ignorance, homophobia and violence-as-first-resort are issues that are detrimental to social living.
Is TurningWorm just another name for MelbCity / SenateWatch?
I have a dumb and irrelevant question to ask before hitting the hammock this afternoon (to travel back to Abu Ghraib Prison in a book by a psychology professor about how and why it happened, I am expecting Bush and Rumsfelt to figure prominently).
When Howard was in and Barnaby Joyce et al were blocking his legislation in the senate, could Howard still have called a double dissolution, despite having control of the senate? Obviously he couldn’t politically do it but could he have constitutionally?
Re: Green elitism
The problem I think with the Greens is that their policies are just a little too “out there” for many voters to stomach, and this is not helped by the rather petulant and elitist way that some (not all!) of the party members act (I’m looking at you, Kerry Nettle). This is the reason that they’ll never be a constructive third-party in the same fashion as the Democrats (disclaimer: I am a Democrat supporter).
What it boils down to, is that people like my grandmother, my boss, and my co-workers have about 0% chance of ever voting Green. Therefore, there is no real incentive for the Greens to market themselves to my grandmother and my boss, which creates a cycle of irrelevancy. Green support is strong in some demographics (including my own), but unless the party expands its support base outside of this, they will never be more than a fringe third-party force.
On the other hand, even if my grandmother and my boss don’t agree wholeheartedly with the policies of the Dems, they can at least sympathise with the general aims of the party (“Keeping the b*stards honest”). Prior to the Meg Lees debacle, the Dems never really alienated anybody, which kept their potential support base broad, even if they only ever polled strongly for the Senate. It was therefore good policy for the big parties to work with the Dems, to stop people like my grandma and my boss from bleeding their away from the big parties.
This is not going to happen with the Greens. The existing support base is rusted on, and the potential for pinching new voters from the majors is limited.
Craig 141, I am not usually into soccer type scores, but all I can say is Australian Greens 20- Australian Democrats 1. (both state and federal MPs). The Australian Democrats alienated me BIGTIME when they preferenced Family First at the 2004 Federal election.
the Greens are Extreme debate again….
it’s true: we eat children.
That’s right , Jen !!!!! What is your favourite recipe?
sauteed lightly with a crisp green (organic of course) salad.
Delicious and SO ELITIST !!!!!
121
BaztheSpaz Says: “I’ve heard that the previous regime even wiped the hard drives of many government computers, to cover their nefarious activities …”
Baz if that lot were up-to-form in their competency then it is highly likely that they have just Deleted the files – any semi-competent pc guru will be able to UNdelete any such files as they will be marked as deleted but not permanently erased
Geoff Robinson @ 133 – So far I haven’t taken much notice of the US elections, but back in 2004 I thought Edwards was the one candidate that would and, more importantly, could undo the enormous damage the neocons have done to the system of government, return the country to constitutional rule, and get it totally out of Iraq.
My feeling is that Clinton doesn’t have the inclination, much less the willpower, to really clean out the stable. Nor do I see her as being capable of taking the lead on the many issues confronting the world, especially greenhouse/climate change. Obama I don’t know enough about though he’s making at least some of the right noises. On the Republican side, the main candidates all seem to be trying to out do Shrub in the looney tunes stakes.
But whoever wins, you have to wonder about an electoral system that will see candidates collectivelly spend more than a billion dollars.
141 [Prior to the Meg Lees debacle, the Dems never really alienated anybody]
Yes they did. The Democrats were formed by a former Liberal Minister who was one of the biggest supporters of the Vietnam War and was Minister for the Army or somesuch during the war. Alienating anybody who does not want to be associated with any branch or descendant of the Liberal party was there from the day of the formation of this Liberal Party offshoot.