Newspoll is keeping up the good work in the post-federal election lull with a series of state polls, today following last week’s Victorian and South Australian polls with a survey showing the Coalition taking a narrow lead in Western Australia. The following charts show how Newspoll has tracked the progress of the Bracks/Brumby, Gallop/Carpenter and Rann governments.
yes a bit of hot weather and most of my Greens have bolted and gone to seed.
my Greens are wilted,
although still elite happily.
Diogenes @ 140 – I don’t know for sure, but our constitution was written on the assumption that the Senate would be a states house, not a party house, so I assume the party affiliations of those doing the blocking wouldn’t have been considered important.
Stewart J, I’m not trying to eulogise anyone, just lamenting the abandonment of the concept of solidarity by a party which considers itself to be left-wing. It seems the differences are not so great between conservatives and conservationists, they both have a clear view of the role of an underclass.
An interesting piece on “the little red schoolbook” http://www.powerhousemuseum.com/collection/database/?irn=354431&search=red&images=&c=&s=
The interesting thing is at the time of its release in Australia mr democrat himself don chipp was the customs minister.
Thankyou cobber! A little bit of history in the early afternoon!
I’m a Q’lander currently living in Melbourne. The Labor government here are a mob of incompetents. Bracks did OK mainly due to the even more hopeless Libs and now the boring Brumby is in the top job. I believe the Libs can take government next time if they can find a new, capable leader or else give Big Ted Baillieu some lessons in media management. Brumby has as much personality as a dead fish and he really turns people off. In my opinon, Victoria is broke – Labor hides the real financial situation but the place is decrepit. The last, new suburban railway line in Melbourne was opened in 1930!! 82% of people drive to work because public transport is crap. Industry is closing to go offshore and there is nothing to replace it except tourism and the ridiculous ‘events’ such as the Formula One race that Victoria hosts and loses millions in the exercise. Victoria’s finances are kept afloat by gambling and the extortionate rate of stamp duty on residential real estate sales. Would you belive that an average first home buyer in Victoria pays about $20,000 in stamp duty – in Qld it is zilch. The Libs have a real chance to beat Labor, the task is not that great.
Diogened @ 140. In broad terms all that is required is that the Senate twice reject a piece of legislation twice passed by the House of Reps. A more exact explanation can be found in s57 of the Constitution – that document that all Australians revere but few appear to have read.
150 jen i exagerated, but the corriander has gone and got that spindly look.
152 turning worm you seem bitter. how is it you think the greens have more in common with the libs? how do you think by way of policy the greens have a “clear view of the role of an underclass”
Thanks for the tanty Alex. Unfortunately the facts above show Labor in Victoria at 60% TPP. Any more dissatisfaction and we will become a one party state.
Plus, our weather is better than Queensland’s anyway.
If Iemma privatises the power industry in NSW I’m voting for Fatty O’Barrell.
and off topic:
Here’s a wonderful reason to save $6.6 billion already (Swan has to find $20billion in savings):
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22992942-31477,00.html
getting on the bad side of the current administration is a plus my book…
And how ironic, after ’96 there was Bomber Beazley and the $9 billion black hole, and now after ’07 there’s Admiral Nelson and his very own personal $6.6 billion dud super hornet black hole!
Chip’s main political roles are included here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Chipp#Political_career
Turning Worm @152
Well, I’m not entirely sure that the concept of solidarity HAS been abandoned, but I’d like your take on how it has been. I know that a lot of Greens here in NSW were involved in such things as YR@W (as was Bill W too), not just because it effected them, but because it effected all working people. I know for a fact that we’ve campaigned on workers comp issues in NSW & WA, with the test (as it will be for ALP changes to WorkChoices) being: will changes improve the material conditions of workers. I know this sounds workerist, but it is an attempt to get both ALP & Libs to focus on the social outcomes of changes not just the economic outcomes.
And I wonder if what you are actually seeing is the identification of “classes” (in all their mixes) by Greens, and their attempt to overcome those class barriers. The issue then is tactic not strategy perhaps?
Does anyone know when the two party preferred result (Labor vs Lib/Nat) will be known for the seat of Melbourne and if that result will affect the overall two party preferred result?
Alex 155 , your comments are very interesting about Victoria, but PLEASE dont think that public transport is only neglected there. It is everywhere! The Car rules! Watch politicians fall over themselves to THROW money at the car industry . Weekly , monthly, yearly public transport tickets should be tax deductible. You are lucky in Victoria that you can buy those kinds of tickets. Here in South Australia , ticketing is a total rip-off! You can buy a daily ticket at huge expense or all other tickets are only 2 hours worth.
Please dont blame stamp duty as such. Get rid of all the tax perks for investment properties and some sanity will return to property prices.
Stewart J, I think our conversation just disappeared up it’s own orifice. I reckon you can discern may take on how it has been by my previous posts.
Good day to you comrade.
And good day to you too, Turning Worm.
Alex McDonnel,
On what do you base your opinion that Victoria is broke? The government has run a substantial budget surplus every year since it was elected. Give some evidence please.
Queensland is subsidised by Victorian GST payments, so it can afford to have lower state taxes. In any case, the Victorian Government has cut taxes as a percentage of GSP by more than $2 billion.
I don’t see the incompetence of which you speak. In education, I see significant improvements on the situation that the Labor inherited:
Improving the primary PTR from 17.2:1 in 1999 to 16.0:1 in 2006 (after the Liberals had worsened it);
Improving the secondary PTR from 12.6:1 in 1999 to 12.0:1 in 2006
(after the Liberals had worsened it);
Setting up the Victorian Institute of Teaching (after the Liberals had abolished the teacher registration boards);
Restoring teacher representation to principal selection panels (after the Liberals had remove dit on thunder the hilarious concept of ‘provider capture’);
Providing VCAL as an alternative to VCE;
Dumping SOSE and restoring history and geography as traditional disciplines within the humanities (after the Liberals had introduced the trendy mess of SOSE);
Lifting the ban on teachers speaking out on education (after the Liberals had put in place a ministerial order to deny freedom of speech to teachers);
Instituting a high-standard reporting system across the state that provides parents with specific information on much their children have progressed each year (after the Liberals had brought in ‘beginning’, ‘consolidating’ and ‘established’ as reporting categories);
Employing an additional 5,193 teachers between 1999 and 2006 (after the Liberals had removed almost 9,000);
Staffing primary schools to allow a maximum class size of 21 pupils in prep to grade 2 (after the Liberals had used dishonourable retrospective legislation to remove legally enforceable limits on class sizes);
Investing $1.4 billion in capital spending on schools (after Liberal neglect);
Committing to rebuild every school in the state, with a down-payment of $1.9 billion in the current term of government (after Liberal neglect).
I do not claim perfection as Labor still pays teachers the lowest salaries in the country and it has not restored the teachers stolen from secondary schools, but its record is unarguably better than that of its predecessors.
Outside of education, we have the constitutional protection of the auditor-general and the constitutional entrenchment of reform of the Legislative Council, a reform the Liberals promised in 1973 but never carried out.
Public transport is a mess, but, despite the huge subsidies paid to it, hardly anyone uses it, so the political impact is not so great.
I think it very unlikely that the Liberals will win in 2010, because they have not done the work necessary and, while the time for blaming the last Liberal Government for anything that is wrong with the state has gone, people still remember what it was like and do not want it back. The challenge for the Liberals is to be different from their past record, and to be so credibly.
When will the question of equitable distribution (of federally collected taxes) to the states be achieved? As I understand it Victoria & NSW are currently subsidising the other states – including-rolling-in-resources Queensland and WA. When bagging the NSW & Vic governments for being addicted to gambling taxes, it may be worth bearing this mind.
158 Artie B- The way that constitutions are revered by the public is a source of continual annoyance for me, more so in the US than here. There seems to be some belief that just because its in the constitution that it must be right. Constitutions are drafted by politicians and lawyers on a committee basis and there is no intrinsic reason why they can’t be completely flawed. I doubt that anyone can name the people who wrote ours but its viewed as a semi-religious document and is almost infallible. And even if they got lucky and put together a few great people to write it, many great people have stuffed things up completely eg Oliver Wendell Holmes was a big fan of eugenics.
PS I’m not accusing you of this!
Diogenes @ 171.
If you were you would be wrong! I hold it in no great esteem. People might revere it less if they read it more. I find that on the whole Americans are much better informed about their constitution than Australians are as to theirs.
The question needs to be asked:
Why do State Liberal governments keep losing to average State Labor governments?
Who’s definition of ‘average’ Hoo Hoo? That is the first problem.
davo @ 161 – I’d take the claim that abandoning Horatio’s toys will upset Shrub with a very large dollop of salt. In the end, business is business. The only one likely to be really p***ed off is Andrew Peacock. Don’t know what his commission is on the deal, but it’s probably more than you or I will see in our lifetime!
IME, the place you find the least amount of constructive thinking is in ‘think tanks’ I note that while the bloke quoted is afraid of the consequences if we cancel Nelson’s folly, he is at the same time urging the government to put the JSF order on hold. If the Americans are going to be unhappy about loosing a $6.6 billion deal then how will they react to the possiblity of a $16+ billion contract going belly-up? Strangely, he doesn’t appear to see the latter being a problem?
As for the the proposed power sell-off, there are few South Aussie who’d be happy about ours having been privatised. Reliability of supply seems to have dropped in direct proportion to the price increases. And most of us are fed up with power company sales reps knocking on our doors in the early evenings.
Non-spectacular, slow. Take your pick. Make your perception whatever you want.
And for answers to this, no more partisan stuff and no more about David Hicks.
He’s got a control and gag order, just leave it at that.
Shrub. Do you mean Snrub. As in “I like the way Snrub thinks.”
Looks like this might keep running as a general thread. Melbourne Federal polling analysis has a new thread.
For those who’ve been following the Bhutto saga, and aren’t familiar with the details of her family’s venality and theft of Pakistan’s assets, then this 1998 article by John Burns of the NY Times is a pretty good read. Whatever sympathies one may have had for the charming Benazir, honesty and integrity were certainly not qualities she deserved any brownie points for:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0CE5D91F30F93AA35752C0A96E958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
HooHoo @ 173,
Trick question???
There is no such thing as a “State Liberal” Government.
“Public transport is a mess, but, despite the huge subsidies paid to it, hardly anyone uses it, so the political impact is not so great.”
I hate that argument so much! In an age of global warming people should be using public transport, but they don’t because the Labor government is pathetically not investing enough in it. I would much rather see a new line built and new trains brought in than another “My baby takes the morning train” jingle. Honestly, the Labor government has no clue when it comes to public transport and have not done anything constructive since they’ve come into office. Report and report shows that Melbourne is losing its liveability tag by appalling traffic congestions on its main roads, but if people were encouraged to catch public transport under constructive government intiatives, then we would not have this problem.
I don’t think Brumby has the personal appeal of Bracks and I would be happy – and certainly not surprised – to see him go. I honestly think Baillieu is in with a chance. He has so improve his media savvy, but if he can come up with some forward-thinking, inspiring policies, he is definitely in with a chance, despite what the polls may say. I mean, really, is anyone who is polled 2 years out from the next state election really have a solid idea on who they are going to vote for at the next election and why.
Glenn Robinson @133 and HarryH @ 108,
The Democratic Nomination is probably locked up for either Clinton or Obama due to their massive levels of megacorporation campaign funds, which Edwards has refused.
Thus beholden to the Megacorps for their election (and re-election in 2012), neither Clinton nor Obama will make significant reforms in American domestic policies (universal health care being one of the most urgent, if Michael Moore is correct).
Like Rudd and Brown, both Clinton and Obama will continue to pursue most of the foreign policy blunders of the Bush/Howard/Blair axis, notwithstanding the gradual drawing down of their Iraq War troop levels. One example is Afghanistan, where a repressive, stable, government under the fanatical Taliban (formerly US backed during The Cold War) was returned to a feudal alliance of opium plantation warlords. We’re all stuck there for ” the long haul”, as Kevin 07 has decreed. Even more dangerous is that Clinton is pushing for Bush-lite strategies on a preemptive war with Iran, and Obama is still unable to make up his mind what he might do about the bogus Iran WMD threat.
Of the two, Obama is marginally more appealing because he opposed the invasion of Iraq from the beginning and because he’s not as likely to motivate the Republican evangelical hordes to actually take the trouble to get out the vote as Clinton surely will. Republicans of all persuasions hate her with a passion akin to our Coalition supporters ardent hatred of Paul Keating.
According to my reading today, there is a prima facie case for the following being suspects in a criminal investigation for the commission of war crimes and torture under the terms of the War Crimes Act 1996, the Anti-Torture Act 1996, and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. The charges would be under the principle of “command responsibility” or “superior responsibility”. This principle is recognised by US and international law. It requires three things to establish liability:
1. Clear subordinate-superior relationship
2. Superior must have had reason to know that subordinate would commit a crime
3. Superior failed to take necessary steps to prevent the crime
Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Former CIA Director George Tenet
Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez
Major General Geoffrey Miller
Vice-President Dick Cheney
President George W Bush
Diogenes, the Australian Constitution was developed over a series of Constitutional Conventions held from 1890-1898 involving delegates from each colony and all walks of life – not just lawyer’s and politicians (though these were, naturally, well represented). The entire process was itself one of the great acts of democratic history and the results were eventually put to the people of the Colonies for their aceptance before being presented to the Queen for her assent.
Information on the Conventions can be accessd below:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/records.htm.
I don’t think anyone sees the Constitution as infallible, but it does form the basis of Australia’s government and laws. This, and the consultative process that gave rise to its creation, do make it worthy of respect.
Ferny Grover, that link doesn’t seem to work.
See if this will.
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/records.htm
Thanks Steve. You’re right – my link didn’t work and yours does. I’ll try it again:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/records.htm
Check out the time the meeting was due to begin; looks like they all slept in too.
“WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 1897.
No Quorum-Adjournment.
The ACTING-PRESIDENT (Sir Richard Baker) took the chair at 10.80 a.m.
There being no quorum, the Acting-President ordered the bells to be rung.
ADJOURNMENT.
There being no quorum at 10.35 a.m., the ACTING-PRESIDENT said: I declare that this Convention stands adjourned until September 2nd, at noon, at Parliament House, in Sydney, in New South Wales.”
I should have provided a link for the Human Rights Watch report “Getting away with torture?” on Rumsfeld et al and torture in Iraq.
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2005/us0405/1.htm
188
Diogenes
Don’t hold your breath. Just remember Henry Kissinger’s exploits and you’ll come to accept that crimes against humanity, even on a monumental scale like the carpet bombing of Cambodia, can be committed by Americans with impunity. Lesser thugs, like Milosovic finally get to court, but the really really big ones get Nobel Prizes.
Funny, that.
Nick Minchin looks like he is going to have a very tough year if he intends to continue trying to defend the indefensible.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/warship-problems-a-frigate-nightmare/2008/01/02/1198949894115.html
189 KR- Sadly, I’ve just finished the book I read all this in (The Lucifer Effect: How Good People Turn Evil by Zimbardo) and he concludes by saying that the Bush Administration has brought in legislation to prevent them from ever being tried for war crimes resulting from the War of Terror (sic). And as an atheist, I don’t even have the comfort of knowing they will rot in hell!
Regarding Conroy’s proposed plans for the Intertubes (we don’t know the full story just yet), it doesn’t help the cause of those opposing the plan as reported to use their blog to launch scathing personal attacks on those who express an opposing view.
http://www.duncanriley.com/2008/01/02/heres-to-you-deborah-robinson-our-nation-should-maintain-free-speech-for-you-even-if-you-are-an-idiot/
I’ve got mixed views on the issue – yes, there needs to be some sort of protection from Children from the truly bad excess of Pr0n, but the way Conroy is going about it isn’t doing him any favours either.
that should be OF children…
Ferny Grover @ 184
‘The entire process was itself one of the great acts of democratic history …’
A touch of hyperbole?
Or are you of a naturally romantic 19th c bent?
A more prosaic way of looking at it is that from 1 Jan 1901 there were seven Australian colonial parliaments overseen by the Imperial Parliament at Westminster where before there had been merely six.
Chris Curtis – you really are a Labor apparatchik!! Q’land is far from perfect but just listen sometime to Lyn Kosky and some of her Victorian ministerial colleagues. I stand by my comments – Vctoria is broke – Brumby is just cooking the books to hide the reality. I’m off back north.
195
But the further it gets from the corruption of past National/Liberal coalitions and Infrastructure freezes of the next National/Liberal coalition the better the place is.
Really Alex, what sort of government gets in just to announce a freeze on Infrastructure building and gets itself unceremoniously dumped at the next election? Queenslanders have good reason to avoid the conservative side of politics.
Alex,
Don’t let the door hit you on the ar*se as you leave.
GG you can’t twist his arm and convince him to stay in the south can you. We have an oversupply of conservative wannabes up here.
Artie B @ 194. No hyperbole…and I’m no rear vision romantic. I don’t know of any other nation whose constitution was developed via such a thorough consultation process with its future citizens. What I do know is something of the struggle and passion of those who were committed to the establishment of an Australian nation, and the huge hurdles they had to overcome to achieve it. It is simplistic to state that all the process did was add a federal colonial government for mother England to babysit. England, by that stage, had neither the resources or the desire to govern Australia (they really lost interest with the cessation of penal transportation 50 years earlier). There would still be legal ties to the Privy Council for another 80 years, but from 1 Jan 1901 all other ties were largely symbolic – as they still are.
cobber @ 155 – thanks for the little red schoolbook link. memories…my dad, an old lefty trade unionist, gave me a copy of it when it came out!