Newspoll is keeping up the good work in the post-federal election lull with a series of state polls, today following last week’s Victorian and South Australian polls with a survey showing the Coalition taking a narrow lead in Western Australia. The following charts show how Newspoll has tracked the progress of the Bracks/Brumby, Gallop/Carpenter and Rann governments.
Hey Scorpio, it’s only 10.21 where I sit!
This may be Major Smirnoff talking, but I have the feeling ‘Mate 08’ is going to save the world! (or at least give it a chance to save itself.) As the only western head of government who speaks Mandarin, Rudd can bridge the east-west gap and get some significant action going to reduce carbon emissions and reverse the warming. In 2012 he can then hand over to our first ever female PM and go on to head the UN. I hope.
Thanks for making my year, William and fellow Bludgers.
Happy New Year Poll Bludgers and here’s hoping Bernie Banton is honoured in the next honours list.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22993459-12377,00.html
Happy New Year everyone!
Happy New Year everyone.
Just as a matter of interest, does anyone know if Lose The Election Please is still around – under another name perhaps?
Happy New Year, all.
Happy New Year to William and the Bloggers. (Sounds like a bad garage band!)
Scorpio at #50, I believe you have hit the nail on the head. State Govts get re-elected on the strength of their performance in providing Public Transport, Hospital services, Water, Education and Policing. With the exception of Policing, these policies are all on the Rudd list of things to do vis a vis federal/state relations. They are therefore likely to get big licks of money and expertise thrown at them during 08 and 09. They should be showing signs of improvement just in time for the elections coming due from 09. Those pending elections will concentrate the minds of the Premiers and cause them to be more cooperative than Premiers usually are in dealings with the Feds.
Well, thanks to Ophuph Hucksake (49) I’ve learned my first new word for 2008 – ‘conniptions”. Never heard it before in my life, but checked the dictionary and sure enough there it was.
For anyone else as ignorant as me, it means a temper tantrum.
Happy new year poll-bludgers.
As for State politics, well even the Psychic on Channel Ten didn’t predict that the Libs would win in SA or Victoria. Its one thing for a government to make mistakes, but the opposition has to be electable. In my time in Adelaide so far Liberal leader Hamilton Smith seems like a junior Alexander Downer – unelectable.
But I think WA might be a chance for the Libs – serious errors in government there, corruption, and surely a feeling that, as with Howard federally, WA State Labor can’t claim the credit for the mining boom. WA and NSW are their best chances IMO.
Ophuph Hucksake – love the name.
Darn: My word of 2007 was “brucifixion”, followed closely by “hubricating”.
Gary Bruce: Thanks, but I can’t claim to have invented it. If you (or someone you love) is into motorbikes then you would have probably heard of the cartoon character Fred Gassit. He also coined the phrase, “I blame the fuggin’ gummint!”
A personal credo between 1996-2007.
Adam @ 39, makes some good points. The fact is that any hypothetical State Liberal Governments would not be doing a lot different to what Labor Governments are doing now. Hence there is a large component bandwagon support of soft voters in these figures.
The history of changing governments contains a number of ingredients including time for a change, economic upheavals and incumbent incompetency. However, an especially important ingredient for facilitating the change is “Leadership”. Until the Opposition Party works out who is the “one” they will congregate around and support, then they will never win. This was evident in the March 07 NSW election. Similarly in Victoria, it is clear to all and sundry that the Liberal Party is split between the Baillieau forces and the Kroger/Costello minions.
Federally, the problem for the Libs is even more daunting with any number of candidates promenading their wares and special vision for the future. There is a need for some prominent Liberals to have their careers ended and then a fight between the remaining candidates to identify the top dog. This could take many years!
BTW 1.Thanks to all the PB’s for their kind comments about my adventures at the Melbourne Test. It was a lot a of fun.
BTW 2. I believe I invented “hubricating” one beery Friday night some months go in response to Glen’s never ending use of the word “hubris” during the course of his rambling dissertations.
OMG
my head hurts.
obviously a virus.
Sorry to hear you’ve apparently come down with the dreaded New Year Morning virus, aka the Morning After the Night Before virus, Jen.
For future reference, while alcohol apparently can’t prevent or cure this vile disease, it can mask the physical effects. In other world, it only hurts if you stop drinking! 😉
34 Charlie:Try this site. Its very good. He has done well with his accuracy in the last 2 elections.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
thanks for the advice Mayo.
(Just read the Chaser’s take on 2007 in the Age. Good for a laugh to start the year)
Here’ an expremier giving the voters his favorite salute.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/bligh-follows-sir-johs-lead/2007/12/31/1198949736981.html
Funny summary of election in biblical prose at Crikey:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Crikey-Says/20071221-Crikey-Says.html
Jen and anyone else not feeling too well this morning, here’s something that might help. Meditation:
Jus relax, take a deep breath, and say to yourself slowly repeating, “There is no Liberal Party Government in Australia”. “There is no Liberal Party Government in Australia”. Clears the mind wonderfuly.
great link Chino.
Socrates – you are a wise sage indeed.
it almost worked,
(think about 6 panadeine forte might be even more successful: anyone got any??)
70 Socrates, I prefer “wall-to-wall ALP governments, right across AUSTRALIA”.
Newspolls for Vic & NSW come out once every 2 months, for Qld, SA and WA, once every 3 months. There is no regular Newspoll in Tas; they only poll there on election eve. I’m still waiting for a NSW Newspoll; I’d think there should be one for Nov-Dec; maybe in the next day or so.
Here’s a table showing how state polls compare with Fed election result in that state. Much of these polls would have been done during the Fed election campaign, so this campaign would have had a big influence, as people would be thinking about Fed politics at the time.
Vic, ALP Fed 2PP result 54.3, State Newspoll 60
Qld, 50.4, 59
SA, 52.4, 54
WA, 46.7, 49
ALP 2PP is higher at state levels than in Fed election for that particular state; in Qld and Vic, there’s a huge difference.
Happy New Year all,
And for anyone in Melbourne suffering the 40 degree heat, don’t worry, the cool change has just hit Geelong, it will be here in less than an hour
could be meningitis.
Jen,
Hubricating astertions always works for me.
Indeed GG.
Is that what you call it.
My favorite mantra for meditation and hangover cure is a long, indulgent internal recitation on “H-O-W-A-R-D’-S G-O-N-E”. But you’re right, Jen, a few Fortes were needed this morning.
How’s Nelson’s self-serving letter in the GG about submarines? And Pyne’s call for Hicks to apologise? Dickheads!
Laura Chipp whistling in the wind?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/poor-democracy-without-democrats/2007/12/31/1198949742069.html
Lord D said
The first polls in Jan will be interesting. I’d expect, with the Liberals lossing the advantage of incumbancy at a federal level, the gap between state and federal 2PP in QLD and Vic will narrow.
77
That lament from Laura has a certain air to it, and reminds me of JWH’s forlorn request to the camera asking for the electorate’s kindness to re-elect him. There’s more than a whiff of decay and a touch of emotional blackmail, as in how will democracy in Australia ever truly function without us?
From Kernot’s defection to the Damsel in Doc Martens and beyond, Democrats have been on a one way ride to oblivion, and to promise us that they will somehow awake from their sleep walking over the cliff and become something better and more appealing is theatrical nonsense.
They’re history, we know it, and she probably does too.
KR, wonder if Howard will turn up in Canberra every now and then with suit and tie on ready to start work like an expremier of Queensland was known to do in Brisbane long after he had retired.
Happy New Year everyone.
I have learnt so much here it’s been great fun.
I have two questions.
The first is how do you pronounce Omodei.
And the second is could the next Victorian and Federal election be held on the same day given that they will be due very close to each other.
[The first is how do you pronounce Omodei.]
I believe it’s pronounced O-MO-DIE.
Steve, I think JWH should thank his lucky stars that we don’t treat ex-Prime Ministers like they do in Pakistan!
On another subject, I just watched Russert’s recent interview with Mike Huckabee and found it amusing that someone who professes not to believe in evolution should defend his ‘pro-life’ stance against abortion by claiming that it is ‘scientfically’ true that life begins at conception. It seems he likes to pick and choose his own definitions about just what ‘science’ is.
Funny world, ain’t it?
Western Australia is the weakest link so to speak, The Labor governments in both Victoria and South Australia are on more stable ground. I dunno about NSW or Queensland.
Laura Chipp says the Democrats need to work harder to sell their policies to the masses. At least she does not describe working people as rednecks as the Greens do.
Both parties consider the people who they need to convince to vote for them as an other. It is my belief that neither of these elitist parties will figure largely in our nation’s political future.
84 Newspoll released the latest Queensland polling on 20 Dec 2007. It’s easy to look up on their site. While there I found their latest newsletter.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/system/files//f1/o87//Summer%202007%20Newsletter.pdf
84 Tristan, I would think that Labor in Qld is pretty safe for at least one more electoral cycle. Beattie/Bligh have handled the massive water crisis pretty well, Anna gives the impression that she is attuned to the needs of the voters. The opposition are a farce a la keystone cops. Biggest danger is that Bligh govt falls victim to hubris 🙂 (sorry, couldn’t help that one) due to the pathetic nature of said HM Opposition.
The latest in breaking news: Kev has fixed global warming in Queensland, another day of around 25C and more rain, absolutely beautiful weather all over the last week, albeit windy at times. Kev promises relief for Vic and SA, but seems quite happy to let Western Australia fry! Serves them right I say.
The latest polls in Iowa are very tight on both sides of the political fence. Going to be an interesting year.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
85 Turning Worm
Strange commentary – not sure where you get the “calling working people rednecks idea from” – care to elaborate? And elitist? Isn’t that just another term of abuse that dear old Piers & co like to toss at people they don’t agree with? You should provide some more commentary.
As to Laura Chipp, well, I kinda hope the Democrats keep at it as they have in the past been a reasonable mediator of a set of policies now lost to the Liberal Party – they might like to consider themselves a centre-left party, but in fact they’re policies retain echoes of liberal social-justice claims with a renewal of the economic contract – capitalism with a caring face if you will (and no, I most certainly do NOT mean Maggie!!!). This would seem to make them essentially different from the ALP & Liberal parties now, although Latham was arguing this line (something Tanner’s seems to have now taken up).
89
steve
It’s so bad that Mike Bloomberg is repackaging himself as an ‘independent messiah’ to save the poor conservatives from such a shockingly bad set of choices. (Funny, but last time I looked, dear Mike had backed everything GWB had ever said or done!)
US politics is a wonderful show, but is it democracy?
92 Stop it KR, I could hardly stop crying with laughter when I read the stories of people urging Mike Bloomberg to run for president. The place certainly has become a very funny circus.
http://www.mayormikeforpresident.com/
First 2008 prediction:
first Rudd minister to have his head lopped?
Stephen “rooster” Conroy.
This all round dunderhead will do his usually inept job with the awkward and complex Communications portfolio and will fairly quickly be moved on.
With the “new” Labour make-up now clearly less factional and reliant on talent and performance, dolts like Conroy won’t last long.
94 HarryH Compared to many in the previous government he looks like a genius.
HarryH,
Mindless abuse tells us more about you than Conroy.
Fill in the gaps if you want to have a discussion.
ChrisB, forget the previous Government. They are soooooo 2007.
Conroy is my prediction for 1st ministerial scalp. Plenty of pressure from the talent waiting in the wings.
It may take a month or a year but changes will come, and it will be decided on performance and talent.
My prediction is Conroy, the factional talentless hack, will fail with Communications and be outski……maybe Maxine will be ready sooner rather than later.
Anyway its a New Years Day prediction.
anyone else want to name their pick for 1st scalp?
One of the odd consequences of the disparity in terms, is that once in a while, a state votes twice at a federal election before the next state election. Eg NSW in this cycle.
I wonder how this happenchance, if at all, might affect voting behaviour?
HarryH is obviously an embittered Victorian Leftist. Yes we know you guys hate Conroy because he outsmarts you every single time and makes Kim Carr look like a fat lazy useless Stalinist bungler – not hard since that’s what he is. Anyone who thinks Conroy is or will be incompetent in anything he does is clearly ignorant or stupid. Ask Bob Sercombe, Gavan O’Connor and Anne Corcoran.
Stewart J, Piers & co are part of one elite. The Greens are part of another. Either camp should be avoided in this here working man’s paradise. My post is based on an impression I have formed of the Greens after a few months of reading the posts of various Greens candidates and supporters on this site. I am not one for pointing fingers at individuals although their posts are there to be searched for anyone who is interested.
HarryH, I agree with you on Conroy. Without going into too much detail on his defence of the Labor policy of filtering the internet, as I know what kind of dog-whistle that may set off. I was struck by how much he reminded me of Tony Abbott when I saw him on the news.