State Newspolls

Newspoll is keeping up the good work in the post-federal election lull with a series of state polls, today following last week’s Victorian and South Australian polls with a survey showing the Coalition taking a narrow lead in Western Australia. The following charts show how Newspoll has tracked the progress of the Bracks/Brumby, Gallop/Carpenter and Rann governments.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

265 comments on “State Newspolls”

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  1. Romney could not buy Iowa, he’s trailing 11% against Huckabee. (Gotta love Iowans, they always pick the loopiest Republicans, it must be inbreeding or something!).

    Clinton could not buy Iowa by the looks of it, although it’s a very much closer count in percentage terms.

    So far it looks like Obama and Huckabee going on to New Hampshire with noses in front.

  2. 251


    hey buddy, don’t distract me from the great American democratic process! Ha!

    As for that article, the first para give it away:

    …Bhutto’s murder is the closest it’s come to killing a Western leader; it is al-Qa’ida’s most sensational attack since downing the twin towers on 9/11

    Purlease! Bhutto was a chameleon, who as one writer said recently, “knew Washington better than Washington knew her”. She strung Bush’s crew along to get her foot in the door back home and was no more about restoring democracy in Pakistan than the neocons intend to do in Iraq.

    I’ll read the rest when I get the Iowa caucuses out of my system!

  3. Romney has conceded Iowa to Huckabee.

    Obama is a few points ahead of Edwards/Clinton and might hold his lead, although no one is officially calling it for him yet.

  4. OK, now 75% of precinsts reporting and Obama is 5% in front. He looks to be pulling ahead strongly, so it should be called pretty soon.

  5. NY Times is now calling it for Obama, with 84% reporting:

    Barack Obama 731 36.7%
    John Edwards 602 30.2%
    Hillary Clinton 598 30.0%

    Clinton’s only a smidgeon behind but it doesn’t look good for her, especially given Iowa’s demographics.

    Obama has done something monumental, he’s won a predominantly white state. He’ll get a lot of kick from this, especially in the South.

  6. Almost done in Iowa, and what an amazing process! I must say I was incredibly sceptical of it beforehand, but devoting a little time to follow what is essentially the starter’s gun in American presidential politics, was enlightening.

    As was the result!

    Think about the numbers: the whitest state in the Union, (hmm, should check Alaska!), the oldest and mostly rural, have nominated a fresh faced black American for presidential candidate. (Oh yeah, it’s not just a state with few blacks, but few Hispanics or other minorities).

    On the Republican side, the Southern Baptist smooth talking down on the farm sounding politician wiped the big business cashed up and organised Mormon. Well, the Republican religious base had to vote for someone, and Huckers has the face to fit. That a washed up and re-cycled actor cum Reagan look alike came in by a whisker over McCain for third place is pretty interesting too.

    So, a build up that lasts a year, and then wham, all over in a few hours! And an amazing result for the dude with the funny name.

    So Huckers and Obama…hmm, Ann Coulter will be frothing at the mouth!

  7. Technically, this thread is the one for general discussion and the Vic one is for 2007 Election but it appears weight of numbers have gone over to the dark side and bright lights of the more recent thread.

  8. Oh well, Dio, it’s just you and me!

    I’ll try the rest of that Pakistan article soon, but I’ve got a strong feeling it will be another muddled affair.

    I’ve been trying to get some feel for what’s going on along the Pakistan border, and so far it’s truly alarming. Think Muqtada al-Sadr gone totally feral and you get the idea. In some places they’re doing their own public executions and the Pakistan military don’t even venture into their territory. It’s Taliban crazy stuff and of course it’s had a huge boost with Bush’s support of Musharraf.

    Blowback, I think you call it.

  9. Jen,

    Talking about Republicans and fundamentalist christians, Craig Unger includes them here.(video clip)

    He was the Editor-in- Chief of the Boston Globe and the first to write an editorial questioning why, when all flights were grounded after 9/11, a private plane with Saudis(including Bin Laden family- from memory) was allowed to leave. Would have needed clearance at the very highest level, and at such a cataclysmic time?

    KR, agree Juan Cole is excellent – am a grazer!

  10. And,did I hear correctly (ABC this morning) that JWH was only 1.7% away from a win?
    Heavy swing in postals.
    Much too close for comfort.

  11. The final election result was very tight in the end Megan.

    It felt like a Labor landslide. Yet John Howard and his Coalition government came within 1.5% of holding on to power at the recent federal election, final figures show.

    The Australian Electoral Commission says the Coalition ended up with 47.44% of the two-party vote after strongly outpolling Labor in the record 2.5 million postal, pre-poll and absentee votes counted after election night.

    The final count shows the election was closer than it appeared on election night.

    Not only did the Coalition haul back Labor’s lead in overall votes, but the election outcome was decided in an extraordinary number of close seats that could have gone either way.

    In the end, Labor won 83 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, the Coalition 65 and independents two. But nine of Labor’s 83 seats were won by margins of less than 1.5%.

    Had the Coalition won them, the seats would have been split 74-all, with two conservative independents holding the balance of power – and most likely using it to give John Howard a fifth term in office.

    Labor’s narrow wins included Maxine McKew’s victory over Mr Howard in Bennelong (by 1.4%), the Victorian seats of Corangamite (0.85%) and Deakin (1.41%), and three seats won by tiny margins: Robertson (NSW, 0.11%), Flynn (Qld, 0.16%) and the Darwin seat of Solomon (0.19%).

    With just 320 more votes in the right places, the Coalition could have cut Labor’s majority to just 10 seats, a less than commanding tally. With fewer than 6000 more votes in the right seats, it could have held onto government.

    But there was even more luck on the Coalition’s side. It won 13 of its 65 seats by less than 2%, five of them by less than 0.22%.

    They included the Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen, which former tourism minister Fran Bailey held by just 12 votes (0.01%), the Brisbane seat of Bowman, held by 64 votes (0.04%), the former Labor seat of Swan, won by 164 votes (0.11%), and the Queensland seats of Dickson (0.13%) and Herbert (0.21%).

    All told, the Coalition won half its seats — 32 out of 65 — by majorities of less than 6%. Labor won 25 of its 83 by the same margin, including the seat of Melbourne, where Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner beat the Greens’ Adam Bandt by just 4.71%.

    Most of the 57 MPs in marginal seats now face new uncertainties, with federal redistributions likely in every state except South Australia before the next federal election.

    The electoral commission has begun the process of redistributing the 15 electorates in Western Australia, and will begin redistributions in Tasmania and the Northern Territory later this year.

    Population shifts will also require it to once again carry out redistributions in Queensland and NSW in 2009, with Queensland gaining a seat and NSW losing one. By January 2010, it will be Victoria’s turn.

  12. Bolderdash. I’m sick of people saying silly things such as that.

    “But there was even more luck on the Coalition’s side. It won 13 of its 65 seats by less than 2%, five of them by less than 0.22%.”

    That is the important bit. Labor got large swings in almost every electorate. Only 4 or 5 electorates went the other way, mostly corrections. They stole McEwen and probably bowman too. The new electoral laws were pretty much responsible for Swan, Herbet and Dickson. With one of the lowest acceptence rates of provisional votes in modern times. I’m not even goin to start about appointments to the Aec.

  13. The Western Australian Parliament passed the Native (Citizenship Rights) Act in 1944. It does not seem to define any particular rights of citizenship but simply sets out a process whereby Aborigines can gain citizenship of WA. It thus predates the Commonwealth Act under which no Australian was a citizen before 1948.

    The ABC had a program, “Sisters, Pearls and Mission Girls”, on today, on which a person claimed that Aborigines had been classified as fauna, but he, like everyone else who makes this claim, gave no reference.

    Details of the WA Act are at:

  14. I am not sure what value it is in proving the two line graph given that both lines invariably follow each other (I guess the crossover is interesting.. But Western Australia is showing a rather volatile electorate. Which is not good for the Liberal Party overall. They may have amde a few gains on the day but according to this graph it is not a solid point of view and appears to change day by day. A week is most certainly a long time in politics

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