Consolation prizes

On election night and the following day, the best bet seemed to be that Labor would emerge with between 86 and 88 seats. After that, Labor watched leads disappear in one seat after another. Liberal candidates took the lead in McEwen and La Trobe on the Monday after polling day, followed by Dickson and Swan on Tuesday, Herbert on Friday and Bowman on Wednesday of this week. Corangamite, Flynn and Robertson were also on the critical list at various stages after looking secure for Labor on election night: Robertson arguably still remains there. In Solomon, Labor’s Damian Hale watched nervously as his 860-vote lead on booth votes was whittled down to 89 on Wednesday, before he was saved by a late rally yesterday that widened the gap to 194. The entirely one-way nature of this traffic raises the question of what has happened and why. Here at least I will limit myself to the first half of the equation.

The first table shows the size of the swings to Labor for each type of vote in all seats which look to have margins of less than 1 per cent, barring the new seat of Flynn where any swing calculations would be hypothetical (an unfortunate omission as it would have cut the Labor swing on postals still further). Provisionals are excepted because too many of them are still to be counted, and they are few in number in any case. The outstanding feature is the Coalition’s strong performance on postal votes, which cost Labor dearly in McEwen, Dickson, Herbert and La Trobe. I read one newspaper report (I can’t remember where) suggesting this was because most postal votes were cast before the Lindsay pamphlet scandal broke, but the pattern would surely have been reflected in pre-polls if this was the case.

Ordinary Absent Pre-Poll Postal Total
Corangamite 6.43 7.42 6.20 5.00 6.10
Solomon 3.06 1.87 4.77 2.88 3.00
Robertson 7.35 7.00 6.51 6.14 7.06
McEwen 6.19 9.44 8.78 4.21 6.38
Bowman 9.17 8.34 9.95 9.36 9.09
Dickson 9.30 8.69 8.07 6.13 8.99
Herbert 6.18 2.41 8.21 1.86 5.92
Swan -0.08 -2.81 1.21 0.61 -0.32
La Trobe 5.78 6.20 6.05 0.58 5.31
Macarthur 11.04 8.63 8.51 11.29 10.58
TOTAL 6.65 6.15 6.79 4.57 6.39

The second table shows the number of votes cast for each type over the past three elections. Here as elsewhere it must be remembered that a small number of 2007 votes still remain to be counted. It can be seen that this election has maintained a trend of sharply increasing numbers of postal votes, exacerbating the impact of the Coalition’s strong performance, along with the more neutral pre-polls.

2007 2004 2001
Provisional 167,167
1.32 		180,878
1.46 		165,238
1.37
Absent 856,407
6.75 		853,571
6.91 		851,945
7.07
Pre-Poll 1,105,948
8.72 		754,098
6.10 		610,107
5.06
Postal 820,946
6.47 		660,330
5.34 		516,458
4.28
Turnout 12,681,332
92.94 		12,354,983
94.32 		12,054,664
94.85

The final point to note is how lucky the Coalition has been. Present indications suggest it will win five of seven seats determined by margins of less than 0.3 per cent. Assuming no further changes, the bottom end of the Mackerras pendulum will look as follows:

Corangamite 0.8
0.7 Macarthur
0.5 La Trobe
Flynn 0.3
Solomon 0.2 0.2 Swan
Herbert
Robertson 0.1 0.1 Dickson
0.0 Bowman
McEwen

Elsewhere, the chances of a National Party boilover in O’Connor have been reduced as the slowly progressing late count has widened the gap between Labor and the Nationals from 2.08 per cent to 2.70 per cent. It will take an extremely high level of obedience to the how-to-vote card from Greens voters if that gap is to be closed, which seems an unlikely prospect in a sparsely populated electorate where the party would have had a hard time finding volunteers to cover each of the booths. Any vague chance that independent Gavin Priestley might win Calare has probably been laid to rest by late counting which has increased Nationals candidate John Cobb (formerly member for Parkes) from 47.71 per cent to 48.47 per cent, close enough to an absolute majority that the question of who comes second out of Priestley and Labor is probably academic. In the Victorian Senate, the Greens’ hopes rested on what would have been an out-of-character boost from declaration votes, which have in fact reduced their vote from 10.1 per cent to 9.7 per cent. The Labor vote has also faded enough that third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan has overtaken Labor’s number three David Feeney, so that Ryan looks likely to take the fifth seat and Feeney the sixth. Greens candidate Richard di Natale is 1.67 per cent behind Feeney after preferences CORRECTION: I wasn’t factoring in the Liberal surplus, which actually makes the gap more like 0.9 per cent.

UPDATE: One other thing – it is clear that dramatically fewer provisional votes are being allowed through this year. In 2004, any given electorate ended up with about 400 to 600 provisional votes counted. This time it’s more like 100 to 200. I suspect the answer to this mystery lies somewhere in the Electoral and Referendum (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act. Can any wise heads out there point me in the right direction?

UPDATE 2: Comments respondents note that provisional voters must now show photo ID either at the booth or by emailing or faxing a copy to the AEC in the following week. Peter Brent: “Presumably the number of people who took ID to the AEC in the next week was about zero”. Grace Pettigrew: “Many voters who are likely to need a provisional vote do not carry ID around with them (aboriginal voters, the homeless, for example) are also most likely not to vote for the Coalition”. Adam Carr also takes issue with my description of O’Connor as “sparsely populated”: I would argue that this is sort of accurate, but Carr says the real point is that O’Connor is “the most agricultural seat in Australia, where most people live in or near small farming towns”, and consequently has “more booths than any other seat”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

627 comments on “Consolation prizes”

Comments Page 9 of 13
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  1. 393
    Spiros Says: Yes there can be.. Its a question of which judge and the arguments to be made… And I would think there are sufficient grounds for a case to be heard. As to the outcome of such a challenge that something else…

    Again The tradition is for the losing candidate to concede at the point it is obvious they will not win. It does not relate to incumbents only….

  3. Adam
    your coyness becomes you (use google brains for your comments research)

    actually from late dec last year i was saying among others that Jho would lose benelong and that a few “blueys” would go
    people like bushfire,arbie,jas,amber,liver et al were fighting against a tide of lib syncophants
    beside the usual suspects (glen,fonz ESj et al) deriding my verbose predictions of 110+ seats and a generational change there was constant snide and sometimes personal attacks by some posters who thought their status meant their words were golden
    well Adam you cannot attack a poster such as albert and think your history will not follow your footsteps

    alberts comments on the whole are more meritorious than your sometime invective as opposed to argument

  6. If the result is within 20 votes after the recount, the Liberal Party’s lawyers will be able to scrape up some pretext or another for a court challenge. There is always some little irregularity in a campaign and in the count that can be used. Did an ALP booth worker go into a booth wearing a Kevin07 cap? Did someone step inside the 6m line? Were these absent votes properly witnessed? Is that really Mr Nguyen’s signature? Has this envelope been tampered with? That’s not how you spell Woori Yallock. Is that a 1 or a 7? (Always a popular one, that).

  10. The AEC have to do a full distribution of preferences yet in McEwen, so Ms Bailey could still edge her nose in front, and of course there will be recounts, and the inevitable challenge in the Court Of Disputed Returns.
    Labor supporters, good news, but I wouldn’t be partying just yet!

  11. Sadly the tendency of the courts in disputed returns cases is “when in doubt call a by-election.” This is very democratic sends it sends that case back to the people to determine. Unfortunately for Labor, most of the precedents are that the incumbent government loses the subsequent by-election. (Nunawading, Mundingburra, Greensborough)

  13. I grew up in McEwen and spent many years roaming the back roads of the electorate before moving into the City as a uni student. I think Fran is toast… she has made many enemies in her time in office. she should have lost the electorate long ago had it not been for Tamper and other Howard con jobs… Seven votes… It would be nice to think that result will stand .. A recount will be interesting as the only way to know which votes you want in and which ones out is by the address on the envelope.. I wonder how the informals went… all 3,825 of them… 3.8% according to Landeryou

  14. Sadly the tendency of the courts in disputed returns cases is “when in doubt call a by-election.” This is very democratic sends it sends that case back to the people to determine. Unfortunately for Labor, most of the precedents are that the incumbent government loses the subsequent by-election. (Nunawading, Mundingburra, Greensborough)

    lots of contrary precedents…lindsay, burwood, benalla. unless something goes badly wrong for the federal govt i reckon they’d pick up mcewen in a by-election quite easily

  16. Adam, in the case of Mudingburra, the Goss Govt was on its last legs at the time. It wasn’t a shock that the Liberals won that byelection.
    We’re all getting ahead of ourselves! Perhaps the recount will put Fran Bailey ahead again by 50?

  19. Pity McEwen wasn’t in New South Wales because the ALP would get whipped if their was a by election with the sale of Electricity about to occur.

  20. Another question might be how hard Bailey is prepared to fight it. If she had won I would have expected a by-election before too long anyway. No more ministerial perks and no prospect of getting them back, given that she would inevitably have retired long before the Libs return to power. She’s no spring chicken and I couldn’t see her enjoying life as a back bencher in opposition.

    If she was about to jump ship anyway, will she really want to go through the additional stress of a Court of Disputed Returns process, for, probably at best, a shot at a by-election?

    Let’s hope Mitchell takes very careful note of the 8.6% Green vote and the consequent preferences that got him over the line despite a major shortfall on primaries.

    Cheers

    Rod

  21. It will stand, don’t worry about that.

    My spies tell me each count has been recounted, twice, including TCP.

    A challenge is fraught with danger, include the charge of being a bad loser and a whinger.

  23. The Libs couldn’t care less about being bad losers or whingers. If they think there’s a chance of forcing a by-election, they’ll take it. And so would Labor in similar circs.

  25. Interesting how before the election Rudd complained about how Kyoto targets were way off and than after says we are only 1 percent of reaching them, put simply Labor like the Coalition will do very little about reducing emissions, all it will be is a change in rhetoric.

  26. marky marky, what’s it a change of rhetoric from and where’s your proof there won’t be action? They’ve been sworn in now for just under a week and you’re already whinging?

  27. #423

    BULL!

    A by-election would result in an easy ALP win and make their candidate a hero.

    He’d have a profile that would attract a strong profile and personal vote a-la Jackie Kelly.

    The Liberals would sour their hopes for the next few elections.

  28. Labor has done well in Victoria after all, winning Corangamite, Deakin and possibly now McEwen, despite the fact that Darren Cheeseman, Mike Symon and Rob Mitchell have all been bagged on this board as dud candidates/union hacks. The irony is that the one supposed star candidate, Rodney Cocks, couldn’t win La Trobe.

  32. re McEwen
    if the difference is so small there will be an Automatic recount
    whoever loses has the right to take matters to the court of disputed returns if they so wish.
    BUT there are dangers in this ….. do people in a Semi-Rural seat want a voice
    in Government? do people object to voting again ? etc

  33. Nanawading had no alternatove it was decided by a draw out of the hat. The court wilol have to consider seriously any basis of a callange. They might rule some votes should be included and other out. To call a fresh elction might appear a simple solution.. There has to be just grounds that indicate the result of the election would have changed as a result of any error in the process.

    A tough ask when much of what you are arguing is pick and choose…

    A by-elections would tend to favour the losing party but then again Frans Age and other issues could go against her. The electorate might think it is best to get with the strength be part of the winning team and not the opposition.

    Until the court rules the member elect holds office… follwoing the declation and swearing in.

  34. marky marky

    I think you will find it was the ex Govt. who were saying we will meet Kyoto targets (an 8% increase).

    So now we have a 9% increase (imagine what it would have been without Qld Labor stopping land clearing).

    m&m what should we do? What is your rhetoric?

  35. If there was a by-election wouldn’t it make sense to vote for the person whose party is in power rather than some old has been who isn’t going to get jack out of the govt?

  37. marky marky… exactly what is it you want? What course of action? I’ve yet to see you state what it is you actually want done.

    You say action instead of rhetoric… name specifically what action you want taken. Then explain the process that would need to be taken to ensure that action was fulfilled and how long it would take to fulfill.

    I think you’ll find the whole process will take a lot more than a week.

  40. 430 marky marky – to do anything you need to be elected and you need more than one week to do so. Any other negative comments you want to add or any other dire predictions? You must be fun to live with.

  41. Assuming the McEwen result stands, it’s time to reflect on the Labor performance at the election.

    It was a great performance. 26 seats won, 2 lost.

    Just about every marginal seat that could be won was won.

    Western Australia, it must be said, was a little disappinting, winning just Hasluck, not winning Stirling, and losing Cowan and Swan. But the Workchoices campaign was never to going to go as well there as the elsewhere. With Labor holding just 4 of 15 seats, the potential is all upside in the west.

    As far as the rest of the country goes, Wentworth might have been winnable with a better candidate, but maybe not. Turnbull cleverly positioned himself at a distance from his party to win his seat. Labor was never going to win Boothby, with or without Nicole Cornes. It was disappointing not to win Herbert, especially considering how well Labor did in regional Queensland. And I suppose the same could be said for Bowman. But considering how well Queensland delivered, including seats like Dawson and Forde, that weren’t on anyone’s radar, we shouldn’t complain about the sunshine state.

    And that’s about it. Labor was never going win seats Like North Sydney, despite the breathless predictions by some, during the campaign.

    It was a 90/100 performance.

  42. McEwen goes red!

    Another victory for union hacks. In fact, it seems the ALP made a mistake in not running more of them in VIC 🙂

    Of course, these were also the YR@W target seats, no?

  43. Marky, what makes you think voters will blame Labor for the next interest rate rise? They will be voting at a time when we have a divided opposition with a leader most will not recognise. The Libs seem intent on defending Workchoices still. That will go down well I don’t think. Labor’s honeymoon will still be strong, hell, Rudd’s is still going after 12 months.

  44. I’m still disappointed about Herbert, but Peter Lindsay can’t last forever, and nex time, he won’t have the advantage of being an incumbant government MP with superior financial resources.

  45. God I wish we had got rid of Jason Wood in La Trobe. His last job was in special ops with the police……I think he was the “battering ram”

  47. McEwan is ours, whether it is as it stands ora bi-election. I am also tipping a very close competition in Higgins bi-election too.

  50. Jason Wood has the personality of a block of wood, but obviously he did enough pork barreling to save himself this time. And perhaps Rodney Cocks was put into the seat too late.

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