Consolation prizes

On election night and the following day, the best bet seemed to be that Labor would emerge with between 86 and 88 seats. After that, Labor watched leads disappear in one seat after another. Liberal candidates took the lead in McEwen and La Trobe on the Monday after polling day, followed by Dickson and Swan on Tuesday, Herbert on Friday and Bowman on Wednesday of this week. Corangamite, Flynn and Robertson were also on the critical list at various stages after looking secure for Labor on election night: Robertson arguably still remains there. In Solomon, Labor’s Damian Hale watched nervously as his 860-vote lead on booth votes was whittled down to 89 on Wednesday, before he was saved by a late rally yesterday that widened the gap to 194. The entirely one-way nature of this traffic raises the question of what has happened and why. Here at least I will limit myself to the first half of the equation.

The first table shows the size of the swings to Labor for each type of vote in all seats which look to have margins of less than 1 per cent, barring the new seat of Flynn where any swing calculations would be hypothetical (an unfortunate omission as it would have cut the Labor swing on postals still further). Provisionals are excepted because too many of them are still to be counted, and they are few in number in any case. The outstanding feature is the Coalition’s strong performance on postal votes, which cost Labor dearly in McEwen, Dickson, Herbert and La Trobe. I read one newspaper report (I can’t remember where) suggesting this was because most postal votes were cast before the Lindsay pamphlet scandal broke, but the pattern would surely have been reflected in pre-polls if this was the case.

Ordinary Absent Pre-Poll Postal Total
Corangamite 6.43 7.42 6.20 5.00 6.10
Solomon 3.06 1.87 4.77 2.88 3.00
Robertson 7.35 7.00 6.51 6.14 7.06
McEwen 6.19 9.44 8.78 4.21 6.38
Bowman 9.17 8.34 9.95 9.36 9.09
Dickson 9.30 8.69 8.07 6.13 8.99
Herbert 6.18 2.41 8.21 1.86 5.92
Swan -0.08 -2.81 1.21 0.61 -0.32
La Trobe 5.78 6.20 6.05 0.58 5.31
Macarthur 11.04 8.63 8.51 11.29 10.58
TOTAL 6.65 6.15 6.79 4.57 6.39

The second table shows the number of votes cast for each type over the past three elections. Here as elsewhere it must be remembered that a small number of 2007 votes still remain to be counted. It can be seen that this election has maintained a trend of sharply increasing numbers of postal votes, exacerbating the impact of the Coalition’s strong performance, along with the more neutral pre-polls.

2007 2004 2001
Provisional 167,167
1.32
180,878
1.46
165,238
1.37
Absent 856,407
6.75
853,571
6.91
851,945
7.07
Pre-Poll 1,105,948
8.72
754,098
6.10
610,107
5.06
Postal 820,946
6.47
660,330
5.34
516,458
4.28
Turnout 12,681,332
92.94
12,354,983
94.32
12,054,664
94.85

The final point to note is how lucky the Coalition has been. Present indications suggest it will win five of seven seats determined by margins of less than 0.3 per cent. Assuming no further changes, the bottom end of the Mackerras pendulum will look as follows:

Corangamite 0.8
0.7 Macarthur
0.5 La Trobe
Flynn 0.3
Solomon 0.2 0.2 Swan
Herbert
Robertson 0.1 0.1 Dickson
0.0 Bowman
McEwen

Elsewhere, the chances of a National Party boilover in O’Connor have been reduced as the slowly progressing late count has widened the gap between Labor and the Nationals from 2.08 per cent to 2.70 per cent. It will take an extremely high level of obedience to the how-to-vote card from Greens voters if that gap is to be closed, which seems an unlikely prospect in a sparsely populated electorate where the party would have had a hard time finding volunteers to cover each of the booths. Any vague chance that independent Gavin Priestley might win Calare has probably been laid to rest by late counting which has increased Nationals candidate John Cobb (formerly member for Parkes) from 47.71 per cent to 48.47 per cent, close enough to an absolute majority that the question of who comes second out of Priestley and Labor is probably academic. In the Victorian Senate, the Greens’ hopes rested on what would have been an out-of-character boost from declaration votes, which have in fact reduced their vote from 10.1 per cent to 9.7 per cent. The Labor vote has also faded enough that third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan has overtaken Labor’s number three David Feeney, so that Ryan looks likely to take the fifth seat and Feeney the sixth. Greens candidate Richard di Natale is 1.67 per cent behind Feeney after preferences CORRECTION: I wasn’t factoring in the Liberal surplus, which actually makes the gap more like 0.9 per cent.

UPDATE: One other thing – it is clear that dramatically fewer provisional votes are being allowed through this year. In 2004, any given electorate ended up with about 400 to 600 provisional votes counted. This time it’s more like 100 to 200. I suspect the answer to this mystery lies somewhere in the Electoral and Referendum (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act. Can any wise heads out there point me in the right direction?

UPDATE 2: Comments respondents note that provisional voters must now show photo ID either at the booth or by emailing or faxing a copy to the AEC in the following week. Peter Brent: “Presumably the number of people who took ID to the AEC in the next week was about zero”. Grace Pettigrew: “Many voters who are likely to need a provisional vote do not carry ID around with them (aboriginal voters, the homeless, for example) are also most likely not to vote for the Coalition”. Adam Carr also takes issue with my description of O’Connor as “sparsely populated”: I would argue that this is sort of accurate, but Carr says the real point is that O’Connor is “the most agricultural seat in Australia, where most people live in or near small farming towns”, and consequently has “more booths than any other seat”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

627 comments on “Consolation prizes”

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  1. What do i want done.

    Real action..

    How about come parliament next year Labor scraps the diesel rebate to farmers, how about enforcing laws stating that all cars must be fitted with technology requiring gas conversion use, how about getting rid of heavy emission vehicles like four wheel drives, how about scrapping fringe benefits tax rebates for company cars and making it only available for people to take public transport.
    Putting money from roads into public transport.
    Stating now the development of a toxic pulp mill.
    This includes also the Channel deepening in Victoria, allowing more ships into Melbourne which use excessive greenhouse gas.
    Then their is Native Forest logging, how about scrapping this and requiring logging only from plantations. Look at money that governments could save.
    I could go but election please the country and world is to do busy procrastinating.

  2. Sorry I mean a new election… if te courts rule that the election should be rerun will and can they limit the contenders… It would make sense if the run is to decide who should win… Fran should call it a day and save the cost of any disputation.. Labor had good to challenge the western Metro result (There most certainly were ground for a challenge to the count) but they opted for the easier path of not challenging…

    I could not wait for the Greens to concede they have lost the Victorian Senate race.. the cork of the champagne has been popped. Here is to Feeney’s victory and an over all successful election… Well done.

  3. Good afternoon all. ABC radio a few minutes ago stated that the AEC has said there has already been 2 counts in McEwen and are confident that any further recount would provide exactly the same 7 vote win to Labor.

  4. hehe. Libs only got 4 of 8 close ones – ie about what you’d expect on a random distribution. So much for the post-poll comeback.

    And well done William for the 84 pick.

  5. So now 2 people who appear to have lost their seats voted in the Liberal leadership ballot? Turnball ought to call for a new election. Shambolic stuff from the Liberals.
    Melb City: another Labor supporter! Good on ya mate!

  6. Adam said

    “He (Howard) is entitled to wait until the seat is declared. I would.”

    What he is entitled to do and what he should do is at the heart of why Howard has not done Maxine the courtesy of formally conceding and is why I asked what is Howards problem wth women who challenge him like Kylie Russle, Julia Gillard and Maxine McKew.

    If we take your reasoning to it’s logical conclusion then the government should not be sworn in until all seats are declared and thus Jefferies swearing in of Rudd on Monday was a farce and illegal.

  7. Of course, a Greens victory over the Vic Lib would have been far better, wouldnt it, Melb city.

    All in all – an outstanding result for the greens

    5 seats in the senate, and party status with the extra funding that brings
    dispatched all other minors to oblivion, only show in town now
    Getting a national HoR swing of 0.6%, despite/ on top of the ALP’s massive swing of 5.7% (an extraordinary achievement for the minor party, IMHO)
    An even larger national swing in the Senate (1.25%), again despite/on top of 5.4% to ALP.
    Brown gets quota in own right.
    ALP+Greens primary tops 50%

    Like it!

  8. In the very unlikely event of a by-election in McEwen Labor would win easily.
    Rudd has impressed since being elected and the big ticket for the Libs in the campaign was the union scare ads. A real non starter now! Bailey would be an ineffective member in opposition.
    With the fait accompli of Rudd, popular policies being moved on quickly and the sky still firmly attached, Labor would bolt in.

  9. I thought Howard virtually conceded Bennelong on election night!
    It doesn’t matter to me if he doesn’t say something formal!
    The main thing is that Maxine has won the seat!

  10. Centaur

    Mia could have a go at Mayo when Lexy oulls the plug, saw a funny article that others had posted on Lexies options including consultant, but of course he would not have all his advisors to write his speeches, so I think he will stay.

  11. Realistically i don’t give a if Howard concedes or not, the election is over, how about our politicians doing something about the problems in the country or is that just to serious an issue.

  12. If the Libs force a by-election, they’ll be branded as bad losers. Result: Labor will retain McEwen with a 5%+ swing in their favour. Apparently, a Tory challenged in the UK after losing by 2 votes in ’97, and Labor retained the seat with a 20,000 vote majority at the subsequent by-election.

  13. Prog

    There are courtesies in all walks of competition, shaking your opponents hand after losing a tennis match, showing respect for officials during presentations, giving your golfing opponent a putt in match play.

    The least Howard could have done would have been to show this basic decency, he is supposed to be a cricket tragic but is behaving like others have said like W C Grace.

  14. Marky,

    The hubricating astertions are on the loose tonight!

    Either blog off and warm up some more mung beans or get into the swing.

  15. M&M

    Your inner city Green feel good namby pamby solutions to climate change make me bilious.

    At last we have a Govt. that admits there is a problem. Realises that we may have limited influence on others and tries to exert that influence.

    You live in a fools paradise. 😛

  16. Greensborough some of us should grow up and yep maybe i am crying wolf but i am so disillusioned by air heads and the lack of action on all the problems facing this country and the world.
    Look at America someone goes into a shopping mall and kills eight people and yep it is just part of everyday life,
    than their is our people who earn millions or companies who earn billions of dollars in profits each year but people in bangledesh, india or south africa or anywhere else struggle to get a feed each night or adequate health care.
    And what are we talking about if Howard concedes defeat or not. Fantastic life this world offers. Maybe my brain needs to explode.

  17. Ruawake, suit yourself, yep we have a problem, and yep lets recognise we have a problem, just love that.
    Like going to the doctors you have a problem young man, and yep now that i have recognised it i will not do anything for it because you will be much better because i have recognised it.

  18. #
    382
    Aussieguru01 Says:
    December 8th, 2007 at 4:47 pm

    Why is it that PB today has become a place to do a “dump” on someone? Some manners please or have we stooped to Glenn & ESJ level.

    Aussie I have always found Glenn’s posts to be polite, very misguided perhaps, but civil.

  19. Some comments from a constant lurker regarding two aspects of this thread…

    Melb City

    I scrutineered data entry for a local gov’t single member by-election 2 years ago.

    Following the data entry the VEC published a primary vote count … and then ‘pushed a button’ to provide the result. NO DETAILS whatsoever of preference distribution OR order of elimination.

    While the result accorded with scruitineers predictions, the mechanism did nothing to make the process ‘transparent’, or to identify how their preferences have impacted on the result. It is not dissimilar to the ‘above the line’ senate voting process.

    As other posters have emphasised previously, preferences (HoR & Senate) are what make our system one of the best in the world. For that reason preference distribution should be totally visible in the count and the published results.

    (AND the data entry system took longer than a manual count as well as requiring considerably greater numbers of staff. Can’t see point.)

    Labor result in marginals.

    If McEwan ‘result’ stands, the yr@w campaign will have been successful in 3 of the 4 seats where it was most active in Vic. [If the ALP had not changed candidates in LaTrobe maybe it would’ve also been 4 out of 4 for candidates with a union background. A cautionary tale against being scared away from the base of the Labour Movement.]

    I may have said this in a previous post however, it is worth re-stating anyway. The ‘Your Rights @ Work’ campaign was the most significant community campaign by the trade union movement since the WW1 anti-conscription campaign.

  20. Regarding who predicted what seats, I can humbly claim success in Forde, however my optimism got the better of me in McPherson (my own seat) and Ryan. And of course I backed the Mighty Max for a motzah in Ratland.

  21. I think the Greens should admit defeat in the Victorian Senate and save the cost (estimated at over $50,000) in having to undertake a data-entry of the below the line preferences – It wouold be quicker and cheaper to do a manual count) In anyeventy the results of the first prefernce count shows that the Greens are not in a winning position. Even with the distortion of the Liberal preferences that the Greens bought by selling their vote in tne Victorian parliament… $50,000 can be better spent…

  22. marky

    It does not matter if Australia has zero greenhouse gas emissions or if we all fart and belch CO2.

    What is needed is for our Govt. to be helping, cajoling, harassing, praising, nudging, demanding, that others – the ones who really make a difference (The US, China, India, Indonesia) do something.

    At least we are now in that position – before we had a Govt. that denied we even had a problem.

  23. Labor has to bite the bullet and scrap these ridiculous tax cuts. The claim that it will encourage people back to the workforce is arrant nonsense. All it will do is add to the demand for even more imports of junk from China, further worsening our balance of trade figures. And why, oh why did we never hear about the parlous state of our terms of trade when Rodent/Smirk were passing themselves off as ‘great economic managers’. Blind Freddie was aware of it, but the MSM never brought them to book over the ever-increasing sea of debt to overseas interests. SCRAP the cuts, invest in infrastructure and refunding our research facilities, we once led the world in solar energy research, now it has been given away to countries such as Germany. I am angry!

  24. Old Tom I fully agree. SNIP: MelbCity, your concerns about the VEC might be legitimate, but I don’t want to be in the position of publishing them if they’re not, which I’m in no position to judge. I have asked you before to limit your pursuit of this crusade on this website, and I suggest that limit has been reached for the time being – PB

  25. Melb city is getting way ahead of himself expecting anyone to concede in the Victorian Senate – there’s only 90.27% counted. Let’s count the rest of the votes, then see if it’s close enough for the below-the-lines to make a difference.

  26. Ruawake, agree totally. But Australia has on a per capita basis the worst Greenhouse emissions use in the world or is second. Making a change here is all part of the process and we should be putting in place policies which do it.
    If what i said is not part of the process than the rest of world may say the same thing. Get it.

  27. Basil, I agree completely re the tax cuts. As irresponsible as it is, however, the Government is determined to keep this promise regardless of the fact that any savings will simply be passed on to the banks re rate increases. Its margin is only 9 seats and this will see realpolitik triumph over the nation’s long term interests for labor’s first term at least.

  28. Adam way back yonder – those things weren’t actually predictions, just an attempt to use statistical wonkery to find out what the newspolls of the time were roughly saying.

    One of the interesting things about this election was that, yet again, like the two elections before it, the wet Libs threatened to vote against the Coalition, they told all public and party pollsters that they were going to vote ALP – yet at the end of the day, just like always, they didnt.

    I dont know if it’s just me, but I find that really interesting.

  29. You can count an election quicker manually then by a data-entry process. In a single member election where there is no countback requirement there is no need for a data-entry count. It is boys with toys trying to be seen to be using then latest technology when a simple calculator is all that is required.

    The fact that in a local council election they do not undertake a resort of the ballot papers makes the scrutiny even more difficult. it s a con game akin to the three shells and a pee.. Unless they show you where the ball is lifting one cup is not good enough. The Nillumbik Shire election lasted more money and took more man hours to count then if it was done manually. The same applies to the Victorian Senate election right now there is no need for a preference count and if they do one it would be quicker and more transparent to do a manual distribution.

    They just want to spend money. The Greens should stand up and so Don’t waste public resources. We know we have lost and can not win… call it a day and avoid the costs. Money that would be better spent on hospitals, alternative energy or something else other then Junkets, overseas trips, conferences and the like…

    In the end they will gain more respect.

  30. Old Tom @ 478. Here here. The effect of the YR@W campaign should never be understated. I was speaking to our local union organiser the other day about the massive swing to Labor that occurred here in Leichardt, the largest in the country. This swing can be directly put down to hard work, door knocking, representatives of YR@W at every booth and a mobilisation of people that is now a template within the union movement. The effective ads that the ACTU started showing over a year ago knocked the wind out of the decrepit Howard Government and they never recovered. The ability of the unions to organise people to fight for what they believe just shows why Howard and his ilk feared and despised them. I hope we never again see a Liberal Party so against working people within this great country of ours.

  31. On the topic of uncivil posters, has anyone heard from Tabitha or Generic Person, or is Bronnie to busy with her new responsibilities to bother posting here?

  32. Old Tom I fully agree.

    The information below is fully documented and verifiable as fact.

    It is also doumented in teh evidence published in the State Parlaiment and shoudl see the light of day and not be snipped.

    SNIP: MelbCity, you might be right. The point is that it’s too much effort for me to check, so I’m going to err on the side of caution and not publish it. I’m sorry if this displeases you, but that’s my decision and I’m sticking with it. You have your own website: damn the VEC to your heart’s content there – PB

  33. McEwen, 7 Votes, ALP WIN

    Ron says …great to see BUT are their any mathematicians here ?

    I suspect this seat will be a very long legal battle as the figures keyed in over the last few days keep changing backwards ! something has been seriously wrong

    EG at start of today & as at & from 7.00PM last night
    Labor 48256, Liberal 48284 inform 3783 +Absentees 423, Prepolls 59 , Postals 78

    NOW
    Labor 48416, Liberal 48409 inform 3826
    Total Count today 328 ** : Labor 160 , liberal 125 Informal 43

    From Declarations this morning Absentee rejections were 665 now 877 -212 more

    1/ So countable absentees less rejections but before informals 423-212 = 211

    2/ This morning Prepolls plus postals this morning 59 + 78 =137 before rejections & informals

    3/ Adding 1/ and 2/ (211+137) = 348 less informals today of 43 = 305
    incl pre/post rejections but excl absentee rejections

    4/ We know the vote count today (ALP 160 , LCP125) = 285
    Therefore the pre polls/postal rejections are 305-285) = 20
    making the prepolls/postal less rejections but before informals =117

    CONCLUSION TODAYS VOTE BREAKUP
    total votes counted 328
    informals 43
    ALP votes 160
    LCP votes 125

    ALP got its 160 votes FROM a total of
    absentees 211 and pre poll/postal 117 less a total of 43 informals

    on todays 2PP vote of absentee 53.40% , pre poll 47.89%, postal 44.02%

    which is a mathematical impossibility !

    So either aec had the wrong starting figures this morning or the count today
    wrongly favored Labor

  34. melbcity,

    I don’t think it’s true that the AEC only counts BTL votes if a party has refused to concede. I’ve spent many an hour perusing the Senate counts of years past and there is always information on BTL votes – your assertion about the Greens wasting money is ridiculous.

    Also – you have mentioned many times the Greens ‘selling out’ and ‘cosying up’ to the Liberal party in the Victorian Legislative Council and frankly it’s just an infantile apeing of one of the most ridiculous scare campaigns from the right faction of the Victorian ALP.

    If anyone’s interesting in seeing one of the most poorly argued accusations of an ‘unholy alliance’ then you should check out http://greens-liberal-deal.com.au/, authorised by S.Newnham no less.

    In truth the Greens members of the Council have voted with the Libs and the Nats on many many occasions in an effort to force the ALP to reveal documents about the Gaming License tender process – as yet to no avail. The kind of reductionist argument by the ALP that the Greens should never vote with the Libs or Nats on any issue is immature in the extreme and shows clearly their assumption that they could rely on the Greens to support them unquestioningly and the assumption that they would lack the political nous to negotiate with the Libs and Nats when it was in line with their principles and vote against them when it didn’t. The truth is that all year the ALP has continually argued that because they were the ones to reform the LC then the Greens should vote out of gratitude. As a lefty I’ve never been more disappointed in the ALP than when listening to Martin Pakula rant on about the ‘unfairness’ of the way the Greens are voting, never considering that they have been forced to negotiate with the Libs because the ALP have acted out of such arrogance as to deem negotiation unnecessary.

    I’m sorry to rant about that now but MelbCity’s repetition of the fallacy that the Greens have sold out in the Victorian LC was too ridiculous to go unchecked.

  35. Hi Poss. So you’re saying that the 3% swing back to the Coalition in the dying few days of the campaign was all because the Liberal wets decided to ignore the complete shambles of their party’s campaign, respendent with racism, corruption, blunder and bullsh*t, and vote Liberal anyway?

  36. If you like you can ask the VEC to publihs the detailed missing preference data from the first count of the Wewstern Metropolitan and if you get it puvblihs it. If not ask why not. Tyhen thinnki twice about what the futire e-votiongs system has in stall for us. ask yourslef WHY is this data not available and why has the VEC done to such efforts to avoid it being publihsed. it is not just me that asks these questions morwe and more are be`coming aware of the problems of the weay elctions are being conted in Victoria. I first raosed this concern 10 years agio and the VEC continues to aviod open and transparency. IT SHOULD AND MUST BE DEBATED…

  37. Possum. All was noted, all is remembered, and all will be laid out for judgement. Those who said that “the average national swing in government safe seats is around the 11.6% mark” will be called to account.

  38. Can I just take this opportunity to gloat at being a McEwen voter, and knowing that my vote, my girlfriend’s vote, my parents’ votes, her parents’ votes and one of my other mate’s votes “decided” the seat…in a sense….along with 104 000 other people….but you know what I mean. 🙂

  39. Ferny Grover,
    I have no idea on the nitty gritty of the composition of the swing back in the final week, but I d know that between the two weeks leading up to the campaign and election day itself, there were a a significant number of people in seats like North Sydney, Wentworth, Higgins, Goldstein and Ryan that were telling all of the pollsters one thing, and then did the opposite thing on election day.

    Maybe the Latham theory (that people tell lies to pollsters) is right – but apparently only right for Coalition seats that seem to have a large wet Lib component in them.

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