Newspoll: Turnbull 34, Nelson 18

The standout finding of a very interesting post-election Newspoll survey of 1125 voters is a question on preferred Liberal leader: 34 per cent responded for Turnbull, just 18 per cent for Nelson and 14 per cent for Julie Bishop, with the optimistic Tony Abbott on 9 per cent. Rudd predictably is streets ahead of Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister, leading 61 per cent to 14 per cent (91 per cent to 1 per cent among Labor voters).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,259 comments on “Newspoll: Turnbull 34, Nelson 18”

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  1. The Democrats have no intention of merging with the Greens. Many of their membership see large areas of policy conflict with the Greens and have no desire to join, or see Democrat assets go to support, the Greens

  2. I hope George sues her and them for every ill-gotten dime they’ve got. I also hope (and in fact expect) Chris Mitchell will be sacked over Christmas while no-one’s watching. He has absolutely ruined a once tolerably good newspaper.

  5. 10pse @ 143 The debt of state labor governments is a product of pragmatic fiscally conservatism, not evidence of the contrary. There is no substance to the belief that fiscal conservatives do not finance government activities against future years. In fact, the Howard Government, despite its rhetoric about paying back debt maintained debt of about $60 billion across the life of the Government. That’s in adition to the unfunded public sector superannuation.

  6. Adam, there would be some advantage for the Greens in an expanded membership and asset base – but it’s not going to happen. The Democrats are talking up a revival in 2010 – but it’s not going to happen either.

  9. FG how many members do the Democrats have?
    I’d also suggest their asset base is going to be depleted from now on in.

    IMHO, Nelson will probably wait till Thursday just to be sure Dutman has got over the line in Dickson.

  10. Jenny – 3 members, a dog (the mascot and chief comforter) a photocopier and a mobile phone that noone calls. They would have accumulated more but they couldn’t afford the GST.

  12. Well he is assured a portfolio if he wins his seat and he’s the only reason Lord Nelson will wait till thursday to release his shadow ministry.

  13. I was once in the Dutman’s electorate but as soon as he moved in the AEC moved my house into Arch Bevis’ Brisbane electorate to shore up the numbers and keep me happy. So now I can boo Dutton from afar.

  14. Glen, I suspect Lord Horatio Hankeyblower is having to do lots of consultation to try and keep everyone smiling before he can release his front bench. Dutton is the least of his worries.

  15. FG he’ll only have about 53 members to choose from with about 10 of the old guard not wanting a job on the front bench, it shouldn’t be too hard.

  17. Adam @155,

    So they can raise a zombie army of course, and take over Australia. The coalition has been succesful at this for years..Andrew Robb, Philip Ruddock etc. If they’re not zombies I’ll eat my hat.

  18. Glen, many of the old guard will still want a very loud say in the makeup of the front bench. Many phonecalls to Downer, Costello and Abbott will be necessary to gain the necessary approvals.

  20. Centaur I think Philip Ruddock looks like a vampire but that’s just me.

    Well FG Nelson should tell em to f off like Kevin Reynolds.

  22. Off topic, I was just looking at the Leichhardt result and noticed that one of the independents got just 127 votes.

    Does anyone know which lower house candidate received the lowest number of first preference votes?

  25. It’s a bad sign for Horatio that he has to wait for the election results; shadow ministers in marginals will need to watch their backs. If you look at the pendulum, the coalition has been left with a lot of seats that take a lot of defending.

    Has anyone found a properly updated pendulum anywhere? Both Adam’s site and Antony’s are still showing the old ones.

  27. Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Posturing: Dr Brendan Nelson
    Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Discipline: Julie Bishop
    Leader of the Nationals and Shadow Minister for Ports and Rorts: Warren Truss
    Deputy Leader of the Nationals and Shadow Minister for Pissups: Nigel Scull-it-down
    Shadow Treasurer, Shadow Minister for Rich People, and Next Leader: Malcolm Turnbull
    Shadow Minister for Branch-stacking and Leader-after-that: Alex Hawke
    Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs: Ross Lightfoot
    Shadow Minister for Defence and Batty Old Ladies: Bronwyn Bishop
    Shadow Minister for Private School Funding: Sophie Mirabopoulos
    Shadow Minister for Personal Hygiene and Proper Dress: Christopher Maurice Pyne
    Shadow Minister for Indigenous Affairs and Insulting People: Bill Heffernan
    Shadow Minister for Sheep, Peasant Affairs and Stupidity: Peter McGauran
    Shadow Minister for Dirt and Vilification: Tony Abbott
    Shadow Minister for Appearing Progressive when Necessary: Marise Payne
    Shadow Minister for Things We Don’t Care About: Judi Moylan
    Shadow Minister for Everything Else: Danna Vale

  28. According to Steve Irons the Liberal candidate he said that the misplacement of bundles of votes happened in 2004 too, what happened was around 96 votes were in the wrong pile and they mostly were for Wilkie but postals and pre-polled votes still favour Irons. It’s gonna be tough for either candidate to win, most likely this will be the most marginal seat in Australia. Still with 89% counted its anybody’s guess as to who can win it from here.

    Id say if its below 100 they’ll have a recount.

  32. Hi, Adam – sorry about that; I followed the link from the top of your page. Hmm. Maybe my cache was getting in the way. Thanks very much for providing the updated one.

    OK, so that leaves the coalition with upwards of 20 seats on margins of less than 4%, which are going to be interesting to defend without the spoils of office.

  33. Jenny but if just a third of those who voted for Rudd voted Liberal in 2010 those margins would blow out to a fairly safe level. Labor are starting at a very high base of vote in all of those seats, i would be very surprise if we didn’t win back at least half of those who voted against us in 2007.

  34. Glen @ 183, your argument presupposes a ‘natural constituency’ that will ‘naturally’ return to the Coalition. There is no such thing. The Coalition will need to gain the confidence of the electorate for there to be a swing back to them. In other words a swing to the Opposition will have to be earned. It is equally, or more, likely that the swing will be to the Government – provided it proves to be competent. Incumbency is a powerful thing.

  35. 177
    Adam

    You’ve only mentioned the shadow (of their former selves) ministers, but what about the “Mentors”, like the fop of the crop, the wonderous Malvolio of Mayo? And the inimitable smirk, Bracket Creep, surely they should be acknowledged with some new roles too?

  37. Glen – There’s usually a swing to the incumbents at the end of the first term unless they royally stuff up. I agree that some of the seats that went Labor for the first time look highly unusual, but in many cases they’ve changed complexion in the interim.

    Simon Jackman has some interesting maps on his blog showing the geographical distribution of support for the parties (they took a long time to download, though – not for the faint-hearted!)

    Here’s the link: http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?cat=8

  43. Ferny Grover @ 184. Your argument is unpersuasive. There are no ‘natural constituencies’ for either side of politics. Glen is right to point out that at the next election, the Australian Labor Party will be coming off a high base 2PP vote. I agree that Mr. Rudd looks promising at the moment but no one really knows how competent his government will be. The key battlegounds at the next election will be NSW and Queensland where there are long serving and (in the case of NSW) incompetent state ALP governments. This is unlikely to assist Mr. Rudd as he seeks a second term. Labor barrackers cannot expect that the Liberal Party in each of those states will be perpetually hapless, helpless and hopeless. In your (understandable) pleasure at the election outcome, a little less of your ‘rose coloured’ assessments of the Australian Labor Party’s electoral prospects would be welcome.

  45. Life after Politics? What possible career choices would be open to ex Govt Ministers?

    Abbott – Specialist Cardinal Overcoat Salesman
    Downer – Governor General of the Galapagos Islands
    Howard – Aboriginal Cultural Advisor to the Tobacco Industry
    Costello – Wedding Consultant specialising in Bridesmaids and Spinsters
    Andrews – Supplier of damaged replicas of the Titanic and the Hindenburg
    Brough – Shampoo Salesman
    Bishop – Hyptnotist
    Ruddock – Undertaker
    Hockey – Specialist Echoist Ventriloquist
    Turnbull – Hot Air Packaging Consultant

  46. David Charles @ 301 – if you have a look at Simon Jackman’s maps, they suggest that there certainly is a natural constituency in the cities at least, and it’s largely based on class. As Jackman puts it:

    “The maps centered on larger urban areas are fascinating (well, to me at least), highlighting the way that income and wealth remain the bedrock of the Australian party system.”

  47. Now now Charles, there is nothing rose coloured about my views. To be fair I did not say that my views on ‘natural constituencies’ only applied to the Coalition. I believe that election wins have to be earned these days and that a reliance by either side on a ‘natural’ swing back to themselves without having earned it is indeed rose coloured thinking. A competent Rudd government will sway many votes in Labor’s favour whereas a stumbling or dishonest government effort if pitted against a sound Opposition will sway votes away from Labor. Let’s be clear – if Rudd performs well he will keep the seats won in Qld and may even add to them. If the Coalition wants to believe it needs to do nothing except wish for a ‘natural’ swing back to them in 2010, then I’m sure Labor will be happy with that strategy.

  49. Disappointing to see Turnbull lose to Nelson, but after some more thought, it makes sense to let Turnbull gain some more parliamentary experience before unleashing him as leader.

    Nelson’s media performances have been average at best, so he’s got a lot of work to do.

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