Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, but I suspect they will be happening sooner or later in Higgins, Mayo, Berowra and perhaps Lyne.
Queensland Liberals. The state Liberal Party has been plunged into a constitutional crisis by a four-all leadership deadlock between incumbent Bruce Flegg and challenger Tim Nicholls. Flegg and his three supporters voted down a leadership spill motion yesterday, prompting state president Warwick Parer to declare he must “do the honourable thing and stand down”. The two groups might end up holding separate party room meetings today, each claiming official status. Nicholls is associated with the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano faction of the Queensland Liberal Party, and is supported in the party room by John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Jann Stuckey (Currumbin) and Steve Dickson (Kawana). Flegg represents the moderate “western suburbs” faction and is supported by Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Ray Stevens (Robina) and Glen Elmes (Noosa), at least for now: the Courier-Mail reports Flegg’s supporters are united by animus towards the Santoro faction, and would be willing to back a candidate other than Flegg to keep Nicholls out.
Western Australian Liberals. It had long been understood that the looming federal election was the only thing preventing a challenge against Liberal leader Paul Omodei, and the talk is that a spill will be on next week. On Tuesday the ABC reported that Omodei was about to be tapped on the shoulder and asked to make way for Vasse MP Troy Buswell. Omodei – a dangerous man to be around at times – today told the media any colleagues who did so would be “very lucky if they don’t get a good right hook, and they’ll be lucky to get out of the room standing up”. Like his Queensland counterpart Tim Nicholls, Buswell is a first-term MP. Meantime, former leader Colin Barnett has announced he will not seek re-election for his seat of Cottesloe at the state election due in February 2009. Barnett has told The West Australian he has thought better of retiring immediately, because it “wasn’t the right thing to do and a lot of people in my electorate want me to stay”. His enemies in the Liberal Party say he’ s only staying to block any move to recruit Julie Bishop to the state party leadership by having her take his seat at a by-election.
Northern Territory ALP. Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Stirling have both pulled up stumps and moved to the back bench. The Northern Territory News reports that leadership rival Paul Henderson delivered Martin a “gentle ultimatum” a few weeks ago. Martin accepted this without demur as she had lost her enthusiasm for the job following the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Mutterings first emerged last November that Martin’s inaction in indigenous affairs had cost her the support of the most of the Aboriginal members of caucus, and that a challenge by Henderson would win the support of 10 out of 19 party room members. Martin and Stirling have both vowed to remain in parliament until the election due in mid-2009, so it does not appear we will be treated to by-elections in Fannie Bay and Nhulunbuy.
In late election counting news, Labor’s Jason Young is back in front of Andrew Laming in Bowman, if only by 21 votes. The pattern of voting in 2004 suggests Young has cleared his biggest hurdle now that pre-polls have been counted (mostly if not entirely), and should be able to keep his nose in front on remaining postal (where he has performed strongly so far), absent and provisional votes. In Herbert, Defence Force votes have slashed Labor’s lead from 528 to 36: the outlook appears better for Labor’s George Colbran now those are out of the way, but like Bowman it’s still close enough that anything could happen. Liberal member Peter Dutton’s lately acquired lead continues to widen in Dickson, and the Liberals are home and hosed in La Trobe and Macarthur. The only reason McEwen is not on the list is those votes we were told about which were wrongly sent to Scullin, on which I have heard nothing further. Defence Force votes have cut Labor candidate Damian Hale’s lead over CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon from 718 votes to 427, but he should still get up unless there’s a surprise lurking in the remaining pre-polls. The trend in Swan contains to favour Liberal candidate Steve Irons, now 136 votes in front, although there will be very little in it either way. Anyone wishing to discuss these results is encouraged to use the dedicated threads linked to in the sidebar.
A couple of other seats worth noting. The Greens camp has been talking up a possible late-count boilover in O’Connor, where Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner could theoretically overtake Labor’s Dominic Rose and surf over Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey on preferences. At the moment Gardiner is some way behind Rose, 20.42 per cent to 18.37 per cent. It is argued that most of the 9.28 per cent vote that went to various minor candidates will go to Gardiner as preferences, although a good many went straight to Tuckey in 2004. The other question is how many of the 6.68 per cent who voted Greens followed the card and gave their second preferences to the Nationals. If the combined 15.96 per cent from minor parties delivers the Nationals 2.06 per cent more than Labor, Gardiner might be in business. In 2004 there was an 18.8 per cent minor party vote that split 7.8 per cent Labor, 5.7 per cent Nationals and 5.3 per cent, but the Greens were running split-ticket how-to-vote cards as opposed to their direct recommendation to the Nationals this time.
A late-count surprise has been a narrowing of Labor’s margin in Flynn, where postal votes have split over 70-30 in favour of the Nationals. This is because postal voting is a favoured method of voters in isolated rural areas, although the size of the gap is still a surprise. Whether or not the Nationals are still a show depends on whether there are more postals to come. Today’s Courier-Mail states that “postal votes were counted today”, which sounds like it means they were all counted, in which case the remaining 590-vote Labor lead should be enough. Pre-polls have in fact been running quite heavily in Labor’s favour, and absent votes are unlikely to buck the overall trend.
Corangamite is now on the AEC “close seats” list with pre-polls and postals having favoured the Liberals 57-43, cutting the Labor lead from 2217 to 767. However, there should be few if any remaining pre-polls and postals, and Labor did quite a lot better on the uncounted absent and provisional votes in 2004.
There has been no significant progress in Senate counting this week, but it might yet be worth keeping an eye on the Australian Capital Territory. The Liberal vote is clear of a 33.3 per cent quota on 34.1 per cent, which will need to drop at least 1.5 per cent if the Greens are to sneak through for an upset. At the 2004 election it actually increased by 0.22 per cent.
Interestingly, now Broadbent is recording a swing to him in McMillan.
Rain @ 92 re:Mr XBut South Ozzies? Just one question – *why?*
Quite easy: X is the quintessential non-politician. Yes: he has stunts; but he is way more than a single issue poli.
As well as no-pokies he is big on states rights [the workchoices high court decision was the reason that he decided to switch to fed. politics] and water resources.
The fact that SA is at the end of the Murray Darling sewer and that the major parties did not focus on this during the campaign was a reason that he got many votes.
Debus would be a good Foreign Minister actually. He is very urbane and mixes easily with all sorts. Not sure if Kevin Rudd wants to give it to someone on the Left though. Anthony Albanese will certainly want Environment but may not get it.
EdwardStJohn
Ashame to admit it, voted with Ruddie, Coward’s use by date was the 90s he just did not know it
Verbal #149,
Good god, that waffler Crean as FA Minister? Shoot me now, please. I’m thinking that given the importance of education in Rudd’s election platform, Science and Training will be rolled into it, all under Stephen Smith.
Dario@133. Gough only ever took on Foreign Affairs when he was PM, with the exception of the first 2 weeks when so much legislation was produced. That initial period is often called the Duumvirate – Whitlam and Barnard – though Gough tells me it was really a Trumvirate because “The Governor-General was sitting at the end of the table signing it all”.
No, Whitlam was FM as well as PM well into 1973, not just during the duumvirate.
Neilbris, I felt too that Kevin Rudd would be by far the best for Foreign Minister if he can combine the two jobs.
Whitlam and Barnard were Ministers for Everything during that amazing period.
Yes, Whitlam was FM until November 1973.
ABC also reporting McMullan is out. Sorry to see that.
ABC says Garrett has environment, but Penny Wong has Climate Change.
So maybe the Latham diaries about McMullan being a notorious leaker are right?
Maybe he leaked to the wrong person about Dear Leader?
ABC says Faulkner Special Min. of State
The ABC will be streaming both the ministry announcement and the Liberal leadership announcement at their website.
Yes I’m sorry to see McMullan out too. The others were duds. All the newcomers are good value.
Dovif,
As a friend of mine said, he made a lot of money under Howard has cashed it in and is now waiting for the good buying opportunities after a year or two of Labor to make more money.
Stayed too long? Unfortunately to have the ego to want it in the first place you probably find it hard to believe its time to go. I dont think history will show its a sin peculiar to Howard only.
Ed St. J
If what you say is true about McMullan, fair enough. But still a loss of competence and experience.
Adam, read my post again – I said “Gough only ever took on Foreign Affairs when he was PM, with the exception of the first 2 weeks”. The critical words are “with the exception”. During the first 2 weeks Gough and his Deputy were ministers for everything. Beyond that he only kept Foreign Affairs.
Edward, your friend is what’s commonly known as a sore loser. That’s what all the sore losers are saying.
163 [So maybe the Latham diaries about McMullan being a notorious leaker are right?
Maybe he leaked to the wrong person about Dear Leader?]
Don’t get too excited ESJ, it’s more likely McMullan will be the Leader of the House and flog the Libs tactically in the parliament.
McMullan would also make an excellent Speaker, but I imagine Jenkins or Price will get it. (Landeryou says Jenkins)
Who will be Speaker? Rudd promised independence in that role.
They all promise independence… independence can be construed any way you wish. I’m sure the Libs will say Hawker was a fine and independent speaker.
Hemmingway
“ABC says Garrett has environment, but Penny Wong has Climate Change.”
mmm – neat trick – Garrett’s election efforts get him demoted without changing portfolios.
The Australian is reporting Smith for Foreign Affairs
Amazing that Peter Garrett has indeed got Environment. That’s a heck of a vote of confidence from Kevin Rudd. All is forgiven evidently. I’m actually very pleased about that. We are in for very interesting times.
Gough was both PM and FA in his first ministry.
He later made Don willisee FA but was in essence still FA which showed he couls stuff both being PM and FA
I am not making any aspersions about McMullan other than reporting what Latham said in the diaries about him. Presumably if Rudd wanted to have saved him he could have.
Steve I thought being leader of the house means you have to be a minister?
LTEP – Well we will see about a recession, I dont want to be BIS Shrapnel but we are statistically overdue.
Now that the schadenfreude is done, must be tough for those who missed out on a personal level. 12 years of chasing the prize and then to be denied by your own at the cusp of victory. I think Rudd is lucky he has a reasonable margin. Note how Howard even gave Wilson Tuckey a go – disaffected people can cause so much trouble.
I’ve worked closely with Penny Wong through some quite difficult issues and she is extremely capable and keeps her cool throughout. She will be highly competent on climate change and will surprise many people.
Dud ministers cause even more trouble.
Smith for FA would be a very good move.
Why is everyone so down on Garrett? His only fault was to make a joke to a media snake.
I think we’re seeing that Rudd was serious when he said “I will decide”.
He’s more a President than a PM so far.
ABC says Smith has Foreign Affairs too.
178 [Steve I thought being leader of the house means you have to be a minister?]
I can’t recall anything that would give me that impression. Just because the tories operate that way does not mean that other combinations are not possible or better.
Adam @180 I agree re the Garret attacks being uncalled for. They do, however, highlight his relative inexperience. Environment would also be a risk in light of his past/lyrics.
However, if a ministry for Climate Change is created, this would help offset (pun intended) the foregoing.
Ed St J yours is a smart friend … Howard won’t be the last I agree … it was a good govenment, it made decision … and it lost its way the last years under Howard
Lose the election …. His friend’s view is supported by history … the australian govenment cycle is Liberal in government, times are good. Since time are good, we get Labor in Govenment so they can make us feel good. We tell them to look after the environment, to spend money on everything. Soon inflation is up, people are defaulting on their home, people are unemployed and we get the Liberals back to get them to look after the Economy …. the govenment do what we tell them to do, not either party’s fault …. maybe Rudd will be different, like he say, he sure sound and have the background of a Liberal
Gillard for Education AND IR?
Adam,
The feckless joke was only the half of it. Ironically, it’s probably Abbott that saved Garrett by outgaffing him.
Dovif… times were good under Howard as Treasurer? Is that what you’re saying?
Supposedly Snowden has got a ministry gig, along with Justine Elliot, Debus and Kate Ellis.
I’m surprised Smith is out of education – would they switch McLelland to there, with Smith taking FA. And what is going to happen with Fitzgibbon – surely they’ll move him out of defence…
Hemingway, what was the other half?
You can always put duds in pretend ministries and then let them go after a term.
Dovif, I think you need to remember also that mortgage default’s are at record highs.
Garrett has not been saved, as Albert F noted. He’s got Environment but without the key area of Climate Change so he’s left explaining why, against his better judgment, the Tassie pulp mill is going ahead. He gets to talk about whales too.
This is a significant demotion. Climate Change will garner more headlines than any other single issue in the next couple of years.
ESJ,
I would assume Kelly would get Veterans Affairs reasonably soon, with Combet, Shorten and McKew also in line to get decent ministries.
191 [You can always put duds in pretend ministries and then let them go after a term.]
Like Mal Brough you mean?
Richard Jones,
Good call on Penny Wong. She ran many hard yards in the campaign, especially on Skynews. Is yours a nom de plume, or are you THE Richard Jones Balmain/Leichhardt?
Adam
I agree on Garrett. It was one slip, widely reported. But even sans Climate Change, environment will still give him some meaty issues to deal with, including the Gunns Pulp Mill.
Well steve, I think Howard did quite a good job of cycling people through ministries like
Jim Lloyd
Dana Vaile
Jackie Kelly
Wilson Tuckey
etc etc
Both parties have large proportions of smoking duds so you have to buy them off and hope they dont do too much damage. Its seems they all like to ride around in the limos and do the trips?
Dropping McMullan is bloody madness – the only sense i can make of it is if he becomes Speaker.
The man is a walking, talking book of standing orders – would bring some integrity back to the chair.
I’m surprised Garrett didn’t get shifted to Indigenous Affairs. Unless they’ve given that to Snowden…