Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, but I suspect they will be happening sooner or later in Higgins, Mayo, Berowra and perhaps Lyne.
Queensland Liberals. The state Liberal Party has been plunged into a constitutional crisis by a four-all leadership deadlock between incumbent Bruce Flegg and challenger Tim Nicholls. Flegg and his three supporters voted down a leadership spill motion yesterday, prompting state president Warwick Parer to declare he must “do the honourable thing and stand down”. The two groups might end up holding separate party room meetings today, each claiming official status. Nicholls is associated with the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano faction of the Queensland Liberal Party, and is supported in the party room by John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Jann Stuckey (Currumbin) and Steve Dickson (Kawana). Flegg represents the moderate “western suburbs” faction and is supported by Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Ray Stevens (Robina) and Glen Elmes (Noosa), at least for now: the Courier-Mail reports Flegg’s supporters are united by animus towards the Santoro faction, and would be willing to back a candidate other than Flegg to keep Nicholls out.
Western Australian Liberals. It had long been understood that the looming federal election was the only thing preventing a challenge against Liberal leader Paul Omodei, and the talk is that a spill will be on next week. On Tuesday the ABC reported that Omodei was about to be tapped on the shoulder and asked to make way for Vasse MP Troy Buswell. Omodei – a dangerous man to be around at times – today told the media any colleagues who did so would be “very lucky if they don’t get a good right hook, and they’ll be lucky to get out of the room standing up”. Like his Queensland counterpart Tim Nicholls, Buswell is a first-term MP. Meantime, former leader Colin Barnett has announced he will not seek re-election for his seat of Cottesloe at the state election due in February 2009. Barnett has told The West Australian he has thought better of retiring immediately, because it “wasn’t the right thing to do and a lot of people in my electorate want me to stay”. His enemies in the Liberal Party say he’ s only staying to block any move to recruit Julie Bishop to the state party leadership by having her take his seat at a by-election.
Northern Territory ALP. Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Stirling have both pulled up stumps and moved to the back bench. The Northern Territory News reports that leadership rival Paul Henderson delivered Martin a “gentle ultimatum” a few weeks ago. Martin accepted this without demur as she had lost her enthusiasm for the job following the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Mutterings first emerged last November that Martin’s inaction in indigenous affairs had cost her the support of the most of the Aboriginal members of caucus, and that a challenge by Henderson would win the support of 10 out of 19 party room members. Martin and Stirling have both vowed to remain in parliament until the election due in mid-2009, so it does not appear we will be treated to by-elections in Fannie Bay and Nhulunbuy.
In late election counting news, Labor’s Jason Young is back in front of Andrew Laming in Bowman, if only by 21 votes. The pattern of voting in 2004 suggests Young has cleared his biggest hurdle now that pre-polls have been counted (mostly if not entirely), and should be able to keep his nose in front on remaining postal (where he has performed strongly so far), absent and provisional votes. In Herbert, Defence Force votes have slashed Labor’s lead from 528 to 36: the outlook appears better for Labor’s George Colbran now those are out of the way, but like Bowman it’s still close enough that anything could happen. Liberal member Peter Dutton’s lately acquired lead continues to widen in Dickson, and the Liberals are home and hosed in La Trobe and Macarthur. The only reason McEwen is not on the list is those votes we were told about which were wrongly sent to Scullin, on which I have heard nothing further. Defence Force votes have cut Labor candidate Damian Hale’s lead over CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon from 718 votes to 427, but he should still get up unless there’s a surprise lurking in the remaining pre-polls. The trend in Swan contains to favour Liberal candidate Steve Irons, now 136 votes in front, although there will be very little in it either way. Anyone wishing to discuss these results is encouraged to use the dedicated threads linked to in the sidebar.
A couple of other seats worth noting. The Greens camp has been talking up a possible late-count boilover in O’Connor, where Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner could theoretically overtake Labor’s Dominic Rose and surf over Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey on preferences. At the moment Gardiner is some way behind Rose, 20.42 per cent to 18.37 per cent. It is argued that most of the 9.28 per cent vote that went to various minor candidates will go to Gardiner as preferences, although a good many went straight to Tuckey in 2004. The other question is how many of the 6.68 per cent who voted Greens followed the card and gave their second preferences to the Nationals. If the combined 15.96 per cent from minor parties delivers the Nationals 2.06 per cent more than Labor, Gardiner might be in business. In 2004 there was an 18.8 per cent minor party vote that split 7.8 per cent Labor, 5.7 per cent Nationals and 5.3 per cent, but the Greens were running split-ticket how-to-vote cards as opposed to their direct recommendation to the Nationals this time.
A late-count surprise has been a narrowing of Labor’s margin in Flynn, where postal votes have split over 70-30 in favour of the Nationals. This is because postal voting is a favoured method of voters in isolated rural areas, although the size of the gap is still a surprise. Whether or not the Nationals are still a show depends on whether there are more postals to come. Today’s Courier-Mail states that “postal votes were counted today”, which sounds like it means they were all counted, in which case the remaining 590-vote Labor lead should be enough. Pre-polls have in fact been running quite heavily in Labor’s favour, and absent votes are unlikely to buck the overall trend.
Corangamite is now on the AEC “close seats” list with pre-polls and postals having favoured the Liberals 57-43, cutting the Labor lead from 2217 to 767. However, there should be few if any remaining pre-polls and postals, and Labor did quite a lot better on the uncounted absent and provisional votes in 2004.
There has been no significant progress in Senate counting this week, but it might yet be worth keeping an eye on the Australian Capital Territory. The Liberal vote is clear of a 33.3 per cent quota on 34.1 per cent, which will need to drop at least 1.5 per cent if the Greens are to sneak through for an upset. At the 2004 election it actually increased by 0.22 per cent.
Flash @ 56 Gough Whitlam was both PM and Foreign Affairs minister.
LTEP, if you think Faulkner and Wong are “no brainers” then you are an even bigger fool than I already thought. They are two of the smartest people you will ever meet. (Or in your case, not meet).
#102 I took LTEP to mean they were assured of spots. If not, I’m with Adam.
Adam, I mean ‘no-brainers’ as in there’s no doubt they should be in the Ministry. I have briefly met both.
Adam: I think LTEP was meaning its a no brainer for them to get promoted, not that they have no brains.
If the Libs choose Brendan Nelson over Malcolm Turnbull their ratings will drop by several points. Not the least of his problems is that he is so dour. Hde has nothing like the charisma of Malcolm. He will only be a stop gap until Malcolm steps in those shoes a year or so down he track. Malcolm however will be a breath of fresh air and exactly what the Liberal part needs for renewal. He will be a formidable Opposition leader and keep Kevin on his toes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coalition ratings remain the same of even rise if Malcolm gets the job. He really is the only possibility.
I see Antony is now predicting 85-63-2 which is exactly what I predicted for weeks prior to the election(except I allowed for the possibility of an additional independent, reducing the Coalition to 62) plus the 53-47. If you are in politics long enough, you get to read these things.
Here’s another prediction:- if Malcolm gets the job he will give Kevin a hell of a run for his money at the next election.
Adam, I beleive LTEP thought that the decisions to include them were so clear and so compelling that the decision was a “no-brainer”.
The decision to include them, not the people themselves.
Adam, “no brainers” means that LTEP agrees with you !
I think it was in the sense that they were obvious candidates for promotion, Adam.
Penny Wong is sensational and I look forward to having her represent South Australia in the Rudd Labor government.
“If Fergie’s gone, that’s a step in the right direction. Jenny George is far more deserving for an ex-ACTU Prez, and she’s never had a real shot. ”
The Ferguson that is out is L, not M.
He means their going to get in ie”no brainers”
its not only obvious thats what he meant it’s a “no brainer” 😉
6 people and counting who don’t think LTEP can explain/stand up for him/herself. I was first though.lol
OK, I retract my comment. LTEP reverts to being merely the fool I thought he/she was before, not a higher grade of fool.
Arch Bevis, Kate Lundy, Kerry O’Brien, Jan McLucas, Laurie Ferguson, Bob McMullin are OUT.
A fun game for those playing at home – match your fave ALP MPs with their new Ministries!
Cabinet Ministers
Prime Minister
Treasurer
Minister for Transport and Regional Services
Minister for Foreign Affairs
Minister for Trade
Minister for Finance and Administration
Minister for Health and Ageing
Attorney-General
Minister for Defence
Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources
Minister for Immigration and Citizenship
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs
Minister for Education, Science and Training
Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations
Minister for the Environment and Water Resources
Minister for Human Services
Outer Ministers
Minister for Local Government, Territories and Roads
Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer
Special Minister of State
Minister for Ageing
Minister for Justice and Customs
Minister for Communications, Information Technology and the Arts
Minister for the Arts and Sport
Minister for Veterans’ Affairs
Minister Assisting the Minister for Defence
Minister for Small Business and Tourism
Assistant Minister for Immigration and Citizenship
Minister for Fisheries, Forestry and Conservation
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Indigenous Affairs
Minister for Community Services
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Women’s Issues
Minister for Vocational and Further Education
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Public Service
Minister for Workforce Participation
Assistant Minister for the Environment and Water Resources
Bevis did get the bullet according to ABC.
Adam @ 114
Not a good day for the ALP in Canberra then!
I was around yesterday and came back after a meeting to find that something I had written circa 50 comments above had been misinterpreted…..
Does anybody have the full list of names?
LTEP, what have done to Adam to make him so narky, by the way. (“Or in your case, not meet.”) – Just a little petty there perhaps Adam?
Adam, I shall cry myself to sleep tonight knowing I don’t have your approval.
Penny Wong for FA
Penny Wong for FA, I hope.
Could Rudd afford to have a Senator out of the coutnry for long periods? WOuld make the votes kinda tough.
Had the tradition of pairing been re-instated yet?
FA = Finance and Administration or Foreign Affairs?
Penny Wong 4 defence
There seems to have been some surprise about the extent to which postals have favoured the Conservatives. I’m confused – can I ask you pseph experts a few questions?
Have the postals been more favourable in this election than previously?
If “no” how come the seat estimates keep getting revised down – wouldn’t the predicitive models factor in the known postal bias?
If “yes” then how come?
Did the Libs put a huge amount of effort into getting people to go postal or is there something fishy here?
Sorry will be forthcoming from Rudd and Turnbull. Many others will support this sentiment and guess what? The sky won’t fall in.
Sorry, as an issue was, and is 100% Howard.
Howard’s non-Sorry for the Stolen Generation goes much more deeply than just this issue. There are countless occurrences of this reactionary behaviour throughout his entire public career.
It’s tied up in his inability to ever accept a Progressive or Left point of view as having merit. His knee-jerk reaction is to oppose the Left then tries to defend his position. Opposing arguments are of no consequence to him. He puts on his tin ear to opposition but proudly and defiantly uses semantics and rhetoric to appeal to, and stimulate, the ugly and base in too many of us.
The Stolen Generation, torture, the unemployed, ethnic mutual respect (racial tolerance), single mums, the rewriting of history, asylum seekers, climate change (he didn’t believe it for a minute), the homeless… it’s a long list.
To be fair, I can recall that he buckled early in his PMship. And then it wasn’t a buckle. Tens of thousands of refugees fleeing “ethnic cleansing” were offered temporary asylum in Australia. If you remember, JH opposed this vehemently and passionately for quite a while, but it was the constant press coverage of our “appalling national lack of sympathy” (and a quiet word from his media advisors!) that caused this huge reversal. He then announced, with much fanfare, “Operation Safe Haven”. And was completely unashamed! Gobsmacking!
This was probably the last time it happened. He became more sure of himself as the years went by and made an artform of the dog whistle.
But just enough Australians have just woken up.
Wong for Climate Change apparently
Martin B @111
Thanks for that correction, although I’m disappointed.
Albert F, I think the postals are running slightly lower than they did for the Libs at the past election (very slightly).
However, there’s a lot more of them so they make a bigger impact.
LTEP, Adam, enough. Try to leave the personal baggage at home, people.
Regarding the ministries, here’s a few picks of mine:
1. Treasury – Swan will keep it.
2. Foreign Affairs – Given the spectacular job Penny Wong did during the election campaign, I’ll take a punt and call FA for her.
3. Minister for Health – Nicola Roxon’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
4. Minister for the Environment – Garrett won’t keep it after his stuffups during the campaign. I think that he’ll get Arts and Culture instead (A&C to be hived off from Communications). Not sure who will go to Environment, though.
[Flash @ 56 Gough Whitlam was both PM and Foreign Affairs minister.]
…and Treasurer, AG, Customs, Trade, Works, Education and a bucketload more. That was just nuts. Is it any wonder it eventually ended in tears?
http://www.alp.org.au/people/index.php?task=ps&type=shadows&state=&keywords=
that is a list of the shadows.
IMO, Tanner has FA, Wong is my tip for FACSIA
Skynews banner says Debus is IN.
Warren Snowden for a junior ministry, Sky says. Prepare to bored rigid. He is known around Aboriginal communities in the NT as “the white rabbit” in that he just sort of pops his head up here, there and everywhere, looking slightly bewildered, and doing little else of note.
I suspect Plibersek will get FACSIA.
Can anyone explain Justine Elliot? I don’t get it… I didn’t realise she was a particularly strong performer.
Tanner will keep Finance. Do a good job too.
damn it, Ruddie is already costing me money…. the share market is under performing the other major market by 3% this week already ….
Plibersek is definitely geting a facial
Albert F, the ABC computer predicted Labor would win 86 seats on election night, even though Labor were ahead at the time in 89. Some of us got carried away with election night results; postals always favour the Tories. It’s still disappointing to see Labor leads turned around by postals, but that’s life.
Mathew – I suspect Garrett will keep the enviroment – he was an liability during the election – but is not so vunerable now the ALP is in govt.
Warren Snowdon and Justine Elliot have come from the clouds. I don’t know why you’d put Snowdon in unless he’s to be Minister for Indigenous Affairs – and I don’t know that even that is a good idea.
Elliot must have some sort of regional-based portfolio.
Kate Ellis on the front bench. *Sighs contentedly*
I’ve missed your posts Dovif.
There is still time to get “postals” in – as long as its date stamped before 24 November you can get them in by 7 December. Just need a franking machine really.
Peter Garrett has interesting plans for Arts, including a droit de suite for Aboriginal art. That is when an Aboriginal painting sells a proportion goes to the artist or the artist’s family. He should get Aboriginal Affairs and Arts. Bob Debus might get Environment. He’s very familiar with it, failing that Attorney General. I doubt if Penny Wong, of the Left, no matter how fabulous she is, will get Foreign Affairs.
Albert F #142,
In that case, I certainly hope he wises-up in a hurry. He was a frontman, after all – you’d think that he knew how to handle the press by now…. (mutter grumble).
FACSIA is apparently set to be broken up. Plibersek to get Family and Community Services, possibly Garrett to get Indigenous Affairs.
Macklin to go back to Education, now that Smith appears to have been promoted?
dovif, hang in there in the markets. There’s some superb buying right now.
AIM,CRK,IMP,GRK etc etc
Prime Minister – Rudd
Treasurer – Swan
Minister for Transport and Regional Services – M. Ferguson
Minister for Foreign Affairs – Crean
Minister for Trade – McClelland
Minister for Finance and Administration – Tanner
Minister for Health and Ageing – Roxon
Attorney-General – Debus
Minister for Defence – Fitzgibbon
Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources – Evans
Minister for Immigration and Citizenship – Burke
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry – Elliot
Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs – Plibisek Minister for Education, Science and Training – Smith
Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations – Gillard
Minister for the Environment and Water Resources – Albanese
Minister for Human Services – Macklin
Thats my cabinet list, but its wrong, because Wong isnt in it, I just don’t know who they will bump to fit her in. Mackiln is the obvious choice, but they won’t give her DHS, wo where would they put her… interesting, I wait with baited breath!
AAP reporting McMullan has been dropped? Surely, surely not.