Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, but I suspect they will be happening sooner or later in Higgins, Mayo, Berowra and perhaps Lyne.
Queensland Liberals. The state Liberal Party has been plunged into a constitutional crisis by a four-all leadership deadlock between incumbent Bruce Flegg and challenger Tim Nicholls. Flegg and his three supporters voted down a leadership spill motion yesterday, prompting state president Warwick Parer to declare he must “do the honourable thing and stand down”. The two groups might end up holding separate party room meetings today, each claiming official status. Nicholls is associated with the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano faction of the Queensland Liberal Party, and is supported in the party room by John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Jann Stuckey (Currumbin) and Steve Dickson (Kawana). Flegg represents the moderate “western suburbs” faction and is supported by Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Ray Stevens (Robina) and Glen Elmes (Noosa), at least for now: the Courier-Mail reports Flegg’s supporters are united by animus towards the Santoro faction, and would be willing to back a candidate other than Flegg to keep Nicholls out.
Western Australian Liberals. It had long been understood that the looming federal election was the only thing preventing a challenge against Liberal leader Paul Omodei, and the talk is that a spill will be on next week. On Tuesday the ABC reported that Omodei was about to be tapped on the shoulder and asked to make way for Vasse MP Troy Buswell. Omodei – a dangerous man to be around at times – today told the media any colleagues who did so would be “very lucky if they don’t get a good right hook, and they’ll be lucky to get out of the room standing up”. Like his Queensland counterpart Tim Nicholls, Buswell is a first-term MP. Meantime, former leader Colin Barnett has announced he will not seek re-election for his seat of Cottesloe at the state election due in February 2009. Barnett has told The West Australian he has thought better of retiring immediately, because it “wasn’t the right thing to do and a lot of people in my electorate want me to stay”. His enemies in the Liberal Party say he’ s only staying to block any move to recruit Julie Bishop to the state party leadership by having her take his seat at a by-election.
Northern Territory ALP. Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Stirling have both pulled up stumps and moved to the back bench. The Northern Territory News reports that leadership rival Paul Henderson delivered Martin a “gentle ultimatum” a few weeks ago. Martin accepted this without demur as she had lost her enthusiasm for the job following the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Mutterings first emerged last November that Martin’s inaction in indigenous affairs had cost her the support of the most of the Aboriginal members of caucus, and that a challenge by Henderson would win the support of 10 out of 19 party room members. Martin and Stirling have both vowed to remain in parliament until the election due in mid-2009, so it does not appear we will be treated to by-elections in Fannie Bay and Nhulunbuy.
In late election counting news, Labor’s Jason Young is back in front of Andrew Laming in Bowman, if only by 21 votes. The pattern of voting in 2004 suggests Young has cleared his biggest hurdle now that pre-polls have been counted (mostly if not entirely), and should be able to keep his nose in front on remaining postal (where he has performed strongly so far), absent and provisional votes. In Herbert, Defence Force votes have slashed Labor’s lead from 528 to 36: the outlook appears better for Labor’s George Colbran now those are out of the way, but like Bowman it’s still close enough that anything could happen. Liberal member Peter Dutton’s lately acquired lead continues to widen in Dickson, and the Liberals are home and hosed in La Trobe and Macarthur. The only reason McEwen is not on the list is those votes we were told about which were wrongly sent to Scullin, on which I have heard nothing further. Defence Force votes have cut Labor candidate Damian Hale’s lead over CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon from 718 votes to 427, but he should still get up unless there’s a surprise lurking in the remaining pre-polls. The trend in Swan contains to favour Liberal candidate Steve Irons, now 136 votes in front, although there will be very little in it either way. Anyone wishing to discuss these results is encouraged to use the dedicated threads linked to in the sidebar.
A couple of other seats worth noting. The Greens camp has been talking up a possible late-count boilover in O’Connor, where Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner could theoretically overtake Labor’s Dominic Rose and surf over Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey on preferences. At the moment Gardiner is some way behind Rose, 20.42 per cent to 18.37 per cent. It is argued that most of the 9.28 per cent vote that went to various minor candidates will go to Gardiner as preferences, although a good many went straight to Tuckey in 2004. The other question is how many of the 6.68 per cent who voted Greens followed the card and gave their second preferences to the Nationals. If the combined 15.96 per cent from minor parties delivers the Nationals 2.06 per cent more than Labor, Gardiner might be in business. In 2004 there was an 18.8 per cent minor party vote that split 7.8 per cent Labor, 5.7 per cent Nationals and 5.3 per cent, but the Greens were running split-ticket how-to-vote cards as opposed to their direct recommendation to the Nationals this time.
A late-count surprise has been a narrowing of Labor’s margin in Flynn, where postal votes have split over 70-30 in favour of the Nationals. This is because postal voting is a favoured method of voters in isolated rural areas, although the size of the gap is still a surprise. Whether or not the Nationals are still a show depends on whether there are more postals to come. Today’s Courier-Mail states that “postal votes were counted today”, which sounds like it means they were all counted, in which case the remaining 590-vote Labor lead should be enough. Pre-polls have in fact been running quite heavily in Labor’s favour, and absent votes are unlikely to buck the overall trend.
Corangamite is now on the AEC “close seats” list with pre-polls and postals having favoured the Liberals 57-43, cutting the Labor lead from 2217 to 767. However, there should be few if any remaining pre-polls and postals, and Labor did quite a lot better on the uncounted absent and provisional votes in 2004.
There has been no significant progress in Senate counting this week, but it might yet be worth keeping an eye on the Australian Capital Territory. The Liberal vote is clear of a 33.3 per cent quota on 34.1 per cent, which will need to drop at least 1.5 per cent if the Greens are to sneak through for an upset. At the 2004 election it actually increased by 0.22 per cent.
It didn’t take the ALP long (mind you it’s a bit of a rehash of what they had for all Cabinet Ministers during the campaign)
http://www.nelsonfacts.com/
Nelson and Kerry. ZZZZ. Yep. Recall Parliament. Let the Games Begin!
When “Top Gun” Nelson was on all I could think about was where did I put that razor?
Do you reckon all those who just voted Labor, Greens etc are likely to be enticed to Liberals, by Nelson’s offer too good to refuse?
What, years of vote me?
Did the great gazzoo really say that he had a photo of Neville Bonner on his office wall as large as two doorways.
Really this leadership contest for the Libs was a contest that no one wanted to win. Its like a stationary bike race: The person that can stay still and upright the longest wins.
The result leaves everyone disappointed.
1. Nelson gets elected with a bare majority. Would be clearly underwhelmed by the show of support.
2. Turnbull is snubbed but has a substantial base of support in the Party. Still sees a glimmer down the track.
3. Abbott can sit and wait for the right moment to strike.
4. Bishop as deputy will garner support from WA, but where else. Money in WA, votes on the eastern seaboard.
I would not be surprised if Turnbull and Nelson voted for each other.
Wonder if that includes a commitment to tell us the policies.
Before or after an election?
805. Yes, and yes that means that the Liberal Party is therefore the only party that can lay claim to caring about Indigenous Affairs.
Remember if you’re not with the Liberal Party on this then obviously you have no heart. Because of course the Libs have such a history of getting things right on Indigenous Affairs that this “planned on the back of an envelope, rush in first worry about the consequences later, ignore most of the recommendation of the Children are sacred report” intervention must be the only way to do things.
I thought Nelson was still out of the country after his balls up on Iraq,Howard must have let back in to vote last Saturday.
For those who don’t know the detail of ‘the Super Hornet Mess’ from Nelson as Defence Minister.
The Super Hornet debacle perpetuated by Brendan Nelson when he was defence minister gives good insight into how he would govern. It would be executive whim, without deliberation or oversight. In other words Schmittian conservatism.
http://www.southsearepublic.org/article/1062/read/the_super_hornet_mess
That was funny, seeing Shrek having to walk to the carpark, carrying his green plastic trash bag. No more briefcases, laptops, chauffeurs, cameras.
Not even the Chasers,when you need them.
Welcome back to AWA world. Battlers. Traffic. Meaningless employment, just to pay the mortgage.
I bet Richard Pratt has already got an apology from the Libs.
Nelson is not a winner, just looking at him makes you cringe.
He has an unattractive face, and less alone makes you not want to listen to him. He looks shifty and unbelievable.
The Libs have a number of problems within their ranks, undoubtedly the WA Libs are having a significant say, along with the right and the moderates are trying to play of each group to gain their confidence.
On saying sorry Nelson struggled with the question and it seems as Kerry said this helped him win.
Turnbull as Treasurer is a good choice but it may also count against him on his progressive believes.
Labor’ cabinet looks okay but i question the significant workload of Gillard. Not disputing she has the intelligence and competence but the workload could be a bit much for a party wishing to make a difference in these areas, easily to make mistakes with such a workload. Is it possible Rudd fears her and is hoping she does make some errors, nonetheless she may do the opposite and show herself as a possible future leader.
I wonder if once Gillard gets the anti-workchoice Bill through she will dump that portfolio and concentrate on Education?
I just love that Bishop is to be IR shadow.
Bishop couldn’t even beat Smith!
She was such a great Education Minister that the slogan “Education revolution” was even being used by Howard!
I know all the young Libs get all excited by her, but c’mon, if you really think she was a good performer, explain to me why Rudd was able to sell himself as the education PM?
OK, I tipped Nelson/Bishop too:)
Nelson was best bet, as ‘sacrifice’ in the ‘death seat’. If he does well, hey? a Bonus! If he does poorly, no harm done to the Party.
Only “pork” I ever got out of that govt was betting on their downfall! *chuckle*
Tho am still waiting for my last bets on Corangamite and Solomon to be finalised…*sigh*
But for info: big disappointment whinge around Canberra 🙁
None of the ACT MPs got Rudd portfolios
Geography I guess, pity to be forced to waste super-safe Labor seats on back-benchers, but if it was otherwise, the rest of the country would get the sh*ts
Maybe its “payback” for not delivering the extra Senate seat?
well *sniff*.. *sob* – we TRIED!! Not our fault that we’re so safe we sleep=walk through elections and never see a pollie of any stripe, and wouldn’t know it was voting day, until we go down to the local shops to pick up some bread and milk, and see all the cars parked at the local school…..
Then late in the campaign Rudd shows up, to say “G’Day” we hope, (being last last but not least?) but no – he glares angrily at a city of 300,000 people and tells us our jobs and microeconomy are going to be screwed Big-Time…..
Canberra is a large city, it is not a barracks for public servants. It has 70% of its workforce outside of the public sector. It has plumbers, construction workers, bus-drivers, teachers, businesses – large and small – mortgage-belters, drugs and crime problems, homelessness, poverty, public hospitals (with the same problems as everybody elses), schools and Centrelink offices.
Thats what we get for keeping the faith for 40+ years, through good times and the bad, and even then in the worse times, in sickness and in health, for richer or poorer … we even voted in a local ACT Labor territory govt ….
and we finally see the guy we voted for, and got yelled at 🙁
Today, after the ministries were announced, we must be the only two safe Labor seats in the country that are not rejoicing. We got *punished* 🙁
To make matters worse, our next-door neighbours in Queanbeyan (Eden-Monaro) can now snob it over us, coz Mike Kelly got a guernsey… so our satellite “commuter” town, can now go Nyah, Nyah, Nyah… they get to keep their jobs and hold their heads high.
The only bright side of the eternal optimists around Canberra is that the Lodge will finally have residents again. Its been a twice-daily commuter “eyesore” for many years being empty’n’all, could do with some maintenance and a lick of paint though.
Tho I stupidly piped up and said it proves Rudd is a “true-blue” Aussie PM.
Canberra-bashing is a great Australian tradition, up there with vegemite.
It won’t matter much what Nelson and Bishop do or say in the next year or so – unless they manage to bring on a DD. Apart from that, no-one much is going to be listening to them. There is a bit of a focus now because of the election but as xmas comes along everybody will just switch off.
815 Rain, stop it! You’ll make me cry.
Thanks Grog at 808. Kerry OBrien was lost for words I thought. I couldnt quite hear him at the time but it was an effort to prove that he cares for the indigenous population.
815 Rain – I feel your pain.
Rain @815 Good point. Canberrans were probably better placed than most to understand the true value of the former Government. It was good to see that, despite the sure knowledge that they would be 2% one-off efficiency dividended, and meataxed in the bloaters, most Canberrans voted for their ideals rather than their pockets.
Rain, look on the bright side… you’ve got no less Ministers in Canberra now than you did before.
I have to say, I really like Kate Lundy and would choose her over a lot of the people Rudd has in his Ministry.
Memo to William Bowe… while you are in the frame of mind to moderate comments, can I ask respectfully that comments on this site about (alleged) ‘religious nutters’, ‘jackboot extremists’ and ‘fascists’ are also consigned to the moderation bin. Such comments fail your humour test, add nothing to the discussion and (most importantly) when such comments are applied to politicians of either of the major parties in this country, they are ill informed. You were (rightly) outraged by the remarks of the chief of staff of the former member for Eden Monaro. I see no reason why your outrage should not extend to those who litter your forums with similar remarks.
821, yes Lundy’s star (such as it was) certainly has fallen over the last 18 months. She would be shattered, I think, not to get sport.
So am I to take it that the way Nelson secured the leadership was by opposing Turbull’s moral position on an Aboriginal apology? That he used that to wedge a more talented man out of the position?
Enjoy this grub while he lasts.
Nelson does have a portrait of Neville Bonner in his (now former) office as big as a double door…. I saw it myself. Not that I think that speaks anything of a man other than he is a big believer in individual achievement as in compatible as that may seem compared to a lot of Indigenous communal/collectivist belief system.
See, Nelson is able to turn around and give one of his stories about how Bonner himself was from a highly disadvantaged background, yet managed to climb up the ladder in the Liberal Party and become the first Indigenous person ever elected to any Australian Parliament. And that in itself – in Nelson and LP’s logic – proves that if all Indigenous individuals would just focus on thier own success they would be able to lift their communities from obscene poverty and disadvantage etc etc….
And let’s not forget that it was Nelson (though in no small part pressured by Abbott as Workplace Relations minister at the time and the PM himself) who wanted to introduce AWAs into the higher education system as well as all other regressive policies bundled under the name of HEWRs (which – ingeniously – stands for Higher Education Workplace Reform) long before they were actually news. This included blackmailing those more impoverished universities to introduce such policies in exchange for a slice of a dedicated funding pool (and I know coz I worked in one such institution…).
Fine man, that Nelson…
The lifestory of Nelson is here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_Nelson
825 JB, I’m with you all the way on Nelson.
I hope Rudd does him slowly.
The Libs should have gone for Turnbull, instead they may have consigned themselves to infighting and turmoil. JB you are right, Nelson is like Howard sneaky and two faced and has some political baggage. Turnbull offers none of this but may get some as Treasurer. Going head to head with Swan will be interesting, i get the feeling he will frie Rudd.
Meant Frie Swan.
David Charles @ 822 – Quite correct, no need to use those hurtful terms, particularly when the generic expression ‘NSW Liberal Party organisation’ includes them all.
827 Always good to meet like-minded people Grog..
BTW, for what it’s worth, I think Costello was pushed. I am not fooled one bit by the PM’s endorsement of Costello in his concession speech and everyone else’s expectations that he would simply inherit the throne no sweat… In fact, this was a deliberate tactic on behalf of the Libs, their typical smoke-and-mirrors which they have perfomed, ah, so well over the past 11 3/4 years….He could have waited more than one day before withdrawing from the contest and made it more convincing but time was not on his side. It is simply obvious that he was too much part of an old pack who blundered this campaign and too unwilling to compromise on IR in the future. If that is possible at all, I think he was more hardline on IR than Howard himself….
Nelson, on the other hand, is someone with PM ambitions but too mellow for the hardliners in the LP (and I am yet to be convinced they are all but extinct – your Heffernans and Tuckeys are still around and the HR Nicholls society stil rules the roost).
As for the Indigenous issues, it is the Bennelong Society which sets the agenda for the entire Coalition (bar a former ALP strongman or two among its members).
Rudd might decide that a DD is a good idea so that Nelson can face an election.
David Charles @ 822
Are you suggesting that the Exclusive Brethren (for example) are not fair game when discussing the relationship between the Liberal party and its far right Christian constituency? Given the events of the past few weeks, I’d say that issue is front and centre for all agents of renewal within the party.
Turnbull will fry Swan? With what? I’m consistantly amazed that people have such a high impression of him. Did he display that much competence with Environment and Water Resources? Not really… I recall farmers laughing at him at some conference because he didn’t understand rainfall flow.
To fry Swan Turnbull will have to significantly improve his performance in parliament. He was not good this year. (Though being Howard’s Environment Minister was being asked to defend the indefensible).
But as a lawyer, no doubt being in opposition will suit him better – asking questions is more his game.
JB, no way was Costello pushed. He’s always been a big cry baby and he showed it again, classic born to rule – never has the expression no guts no glory been more appropriate. I wouldn’t give the Libs too much credit for careful strategic planning – note who the new Oppostion Leader is.
Thanks to the Liberals for not detracting from Rudd Labor’s big day.
Without a person of Malcom Turnbull’s charisma, wider electoral appeal and sheer common sense, the Opposition has blown its chance for a transformation into competitiveness in 2010.
Instead, the Libs have decided to fight for the next three years to prove the voters were completely stupid not to appreciate how wonderful WorkChoices really was for them.
Nelson’s obvious big selling point with Howard loyalists and W.A. kingmakers was to tell them that he was never going to say sorry about WorkChoice, Kyoto, Aboriginal intervention or stolen generations, Iraq, AWB, etc.. He’s proud of it all.
Kicking an own goal in the first minute of the game does not constitute a good start on their road back to government.
758
Julie
I have to put my hand up Julie, (and paid my dues to William too.)
Is it even legal to fry a swan? It’s probably safer, anyway, to get it in a half nelson and call for a bishop.
Kerry was so bored by Nelson that he fell asleep and began mumbling about Malcolm Fraser
Neilbris… I bet you journalists long for the days of Paul Keating’s press conferences.
758
Julie
And by the way, Half Nelson was just about 9:1 too, yummy. Once Abbott was out, it was a much easier decision, but never trusting Malvolio of Mayo not to ponce in to save them from MalBull at the last minute, I slung a $10 covering bet on him at near 300 to 1.
Fun, really.
Grog, agreement again.
Turnbull is yet another classical Liberal. Personal challenge is the name of the game. The man is a multimillionaire. The only thing he has not got is the ultimate in political power, although he is well on his way towards obtaining it. Perhaps this will actually work in his favour and perhaps he will become the leader in time to actually win the elections for the Coalition in 2013 (or whenever). Perhaps he should be really really happy he was not elected to leaad this time around – because Nelson will lose the 2010 election provided he stays put and provided there is a miracle equivalent to the immaculate conception.
I would not underestimate Swan though – I think he was second behind Rudd in the ALP leadership stakes.
LETP. we ALL long for Keating’s press conferences
831 Yes, the Bennelong Society is a strange organisation and I could never understand how Maroochy Barambah got to be a founding member.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Bennelong_Society
Actually my last sentence in 2 par should read ‘provided there is NOT a miracle equivalent to immacualte conception.’
Emily – having Nelson as a leader is BRILLIANT strategy: they KNOW they will lose so they might as well pick the biggest loser to lead them and save the good one for later… Turnbull losing the 2010 election would be a blow too big to take…
tuckeyfacts.com is still unregistered – the ALP should be thinking outside the box!
Turnbull is their most competent MP the Libs have, the rest are pathetic. He at least saw reality straight after the election and realised the policies the Libs should support, this alone shows significant political judgement , the rest of them still have not come to terms with defeat and seem to willing to fight amongst themselves. l don’t Turnbull his background speaks for itself but an interesting thing which came to mind the other day was if he did become leader Labor should bring forth the Republic baby again and just see how Turnbull handles it with a list of people within his party ( National Party) who are against it, i fancy they will implode.
Sorry, meant i don’t like Turnbull
JB – fair call, but I still think you’re giving them too much credit!