Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, but I suspect they will be happening sooner or later in Higgins, Mayo, Berowra and perhaps Lyne.
Queensland Liberals. The state Liberal Party has been plunged into a constitutional crisis by a four-all leadership deadlock between incumbent Bruce Flegg and challenger Tim Nicholls. Flegg and his three supporters voted down a leadership spill motion yesterday, prompting state president Warwick Parer to declare he must “do the honourable thing and stand down”. The two groups might end up holding separate party room meetings today, each claiming official status. Nicholls is associated with the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano faction of the Queensland Liberal Party, and is supported in the party room by John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Jann Stuckey (Currumbin) and Steve Dickson (Kawana). Flegg represents the moderate “western suburbs” faction and is supported by Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Ray Stevens (Robina) and Glen Elmes (Noosa), at least for now: the Courier-Mail reports Flegg’s supporters are united by animus towards the Santoro faction, and would be willing to back a candidate other than Flegg to keep Nicholls out.
Western Australian Liberals. It had long been understood that the looming federal election was the only thing preventing a challenge against Liberal leader Paul Omodei, and the talk is that a spill will be on next week. On Tuesday the ABC reported that Omodei was about to be tapped on the shoulder and asked to make way for Vasse MP Troy Buswell. Omodei – a dangerous man to be around at times – today told the media any colleagues who did so would be “very lucky if they don’t get a good right hook, and they’ll be lucky to get out of the room standing up”. Like his Queensland counterpart Tim Nicholls, Buswell is a first-term MP. Meantime, former leader Colin Barnett has announced he will not seek re-election for his seat of Cottesloe at the state election due in February 2009. Barnett has told The West Australian he has thought better of retiring immediately, because it “wasn’t the right thing to do and a lot of people in my electorate want me to stay”. His enemies in the Liberal Party say he’ s only staying to block any move to recruit Julie Bishop to the state party leadership by having her take his seat at a by-election.
Northern Territory ALP. Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Stirling have both pulled up stumps and moved to the back bench. The Northern Territory News reports that leadership rival Paul Henderson delivered Martin a “gentle ultimatum” a few weeks ago. Martin accepted this without demur as she had lost her enthusiasm for the job following the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Mutterings first emerged last November that Martin’s inaction in indigenous affairs had cost her the support of the most of the Aboriginal members of caucus, and that a challenge by Henderson would win the support of 10 out of 19 party room members. Martin and Stirling have both vowed to remain in parliament until the election due in mid-2009, so it does not appear we will be treated to by-elections in Fannie Bay and Nhulunbuy.
In late election counting news, Labor’s Jason Young is back in front of Andrew Laming in Bowman, if only by 21 votes. The pattern of voting in 2004 suggests Young has cleared his biggest hurdle now that pre-polls have been counted (mostly if not entirely), and should be able to keep his nose in front on remaining postal (where he has performed strongly so far), absent and provisional votes. In Herbert, Defence Force votes have slashed Labor’s lead from 528 to 36: the outlook appears better for Labor’s George Colbran now those are out of the way, but like Bowman it’s still close enough that anything could happen. Liberal member Peter Dutton’s lately acquired lead continues to widen in Dickson, and the Liberals are home and hosed in La Trobe and Macarthur. The only reason McEwen is not on the list is those votes we were told about which were wrongly sent to Scullin, on which I have heard nothing further. Defence Force votes have cut Labor candidate Damian Hale’s lead over CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon from 718 votes to 427, but he should still get up unless there’s a surprise lurking in the remaining pre-polls. The trend in Swan contains to favour Liberal candidate Steve Irons, now 136 votes in front, although there will be very little in it either way. Anyone wishing to discuss these results is encouraged to use the dedicated threads linked to in the sidebar.
A couple of other seats worth noting. The Greens camp has been talking up a possible late-count boilover in O’Connor, where Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner could theoretically overtake Labor’s Dominic Rose and surf over Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey on preferences. At the moment Gardiner is some way behind Rose, 20.42 per cent to 18.37 per cent. It is argued that most of the 9.28 per cent vote that went to various minor candidates will go to Gardiner as preferences, although a good many went straight to Tuckey in 2004. The other question is how many of the 6.68 per cent who voted Greens followed the card and gave their second preferences to the Nationals. If the combined 15.96 per cent from minor parties delivers the Nationals 2.06 per cent more than Labor, Gardiner might be in business. In 2004 there was an 18.8 per cent minor party vote that split 7.8 per cent Labor, 5.7 per cent Nationals and 5.3 per cent, but the Greens were running split-ticket how-to-vote cards as opposed to their direct recommendation to the Nationals this time.
A late-count surprise has been a narrowing of Labor’s margin in Flynn, where postal votes have split over 70-30 in favour of the Nationals. This is because postal voting is a favoured method of voters in isolated rural areas, although the size of the gap is still a surprise. Whether or not the Nationals are still a show depends on whether there are more postals to come. Today’s Courier-Mail states that “postal votes were counted today”, which sounds like it means they were all counted, in which case the remaining 590-vote Labor lead should be enough. Pre-polls have in fact been running quite heavily in Labor’s favour, and absent votes are unlikely to buck the overall trend.
Corangamite is now on the AEC “close seats” list with pre-polls and postals having favoured the Liberals 57-43, cutting the Labor lead from 2217 to 767. However, there should be few if any remaining pre-polls and postals, and Labor did quite a lot better on the uncounted absent and provisional votes in 2004.
There has been no significant progress in Senate counting this week, but it might yet be worth keeping an eye on the Australian Capital Territory. The Liberal vote is clear of a 33.3 per cent quota on 34.1 per cent, which will need to drop at least 1.5 per cent if the Greens are to sneak through for an upset. At the 2004 election it actually increased by 0.22 per cent.
pynefacts.com is registered to a nursing home in Kensington Gardens. (Also to a plastic comb manufacturer in Thailand.)
I think only royalty were allowed to eat Swan. Though my ancestors in the north-east of Tasmania (Aboriginal society being unware of European sumptuary regulations) apparently use to eat them. So its ok for monarchs and hunter gatherers, not the presumptious bourgeoisie.
David Charles 822
“can I ask respectfully that comments on this site about (alleged) ‘religious nutters’, ‘jackboot extremists’ and ‘fascists’ are also consigned to the moderation bin.”
Up to a point I agree with you. Comments that are racist, sexist, denigrate people over personal characteristics, or slur by association with infamous groups such as “Nazi” or “Stalinist” should be out. So to me, of your jibs, “fascist” may be out, but religious nutter/extremist, jackboot extremist etc seem to me OK. But surely beyond that, colour and humour are OK? Is there no room for wit? I think humour is one of our best weapons against the bully.
I think the context matters too. Indeed, similar terms to yours are used by many Liberals to attack union officials. One person’s jackboot extremist is another person’s union official, one person’s religious nutter is another’s, well, Tony Abbott.
I also agree we should be consistent and not hypocritical. As Liberals might recall, the former PM himself started his term in office by decrying political correctness, then at best doing nothing to stop his leiutenants using all sorts of appalling smears over the years, culminating in the Lindsey disgrace. I’d hardly apologise for calling that the work of jackboot extremists. They were embarrassed they were caught; not for what they are.
The problem with accepting a loss in 2010 so Turnbull can sweep in is that there is no artificial compression of Turnbulls lead in Wentworth – a good candidate in Wentworth and Nelson performing badly enough could results in another 2 for 1 Election wipeout.
DRAFT DISCUSSION PAPER.
PRIOR TO SUBMISSION TO MR KEVIN RUDD, PRIME MINISTER ELECT.
‘HOW TO GET TO SORRY’. Suggested Action Plan, Time Line.
BACKGROUND: Convention is that the Governor General has an expected tenure of 5 years.
Major-General Michael Jeffery (remember him?) was commissioned Governor General on 11 August 2003.
To serve the remainder of the former GG’s term, that is, three years.
As of 29/11/07, 4 years, 109 days served ( no comment.) 5 years due to expire in mid 2008.
As of December 2007, GG permitted to resume his duties in the position. Courtesy PM of Australia.
PROPOSED STRATEGY:
Momentum political and active, occurs in addressing indigenous issues. NT intervention reviewed and reshaped.
In consultation with stakeholders.
Sorry Legislation flagged. Consultation occurs. Noel Pearson mollified.
Opinion sought in private over logical person for next GG.
Sorry Legislation, of whatever type, is framed.
Date nominated as to its being put before the House.
Current GG announces intended retirement date.
Next GG decision announced.
Professor Lowitja O’Donohue OA. First woman. First aboriginal. National Living Treasure.
Last Australian Governor General. Full circle.
Sorry Legislation passes through HOR, supported by Malcolm Turnbull, Leader of the Opposition, then Senate.
New Governor General Lowitja O’Donohue signs Legislation. Great fanfare.
TEMPUS FUGIT: Republic put forward as issue for next election. Referendum. New round of suggestions for the Flag.
Rudd Government re elected to second term. Terms of Referendum framed and announced.
President to be elected by the people. Candidates put forward.
Include: Julian Burnside QC. Tim Costello. Malcolm Fraser. Ian Chappell. Fiona Stanley. William Deane. William Bowe. Possum. Decision made, by the people.
CONCLUSION: Republic comes into being. More great fanfare.
Former Monarch of Australia attends to anoint decision of the Australian people ( Look, don’t touch, Kevin.)
Sydney Harbour Bridge closed for Reconciliation walk.
CC: Pollbludgers, Possum Comitati.
Heather Ridout on television again, probably about to say how magnificent this new government will be, crawler she is, no one from the Labor cabinet should speak to her.
Nelson Flip flop Number one
http://dailyflute.com/?p=1338
Heather’s on a lot stronger ground that Peter Hendy…
Not sure if anyone’s posted this – I was watching PJK goingon about ACME fightback and I saw tis “top 10 moments in Australian Politics”.
Quite good really:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMq0tzfmc3Y&feature=related
Agree, but both sang the workchoices tune and both should be left to talk to themselves, would not surprise me one or the other becomes a Lib candidate.
Yes I vaguely recall reading one article this week where Ridout went to pains to describe herself and her organisation as “politically neutral”. LOL
Me thinks she protests too much. How stupid do they think people are?
Ridout is actually meant to be one of the more neutral leaders of business lobbies. Note that her lobby group did not donate to the pro-WorkChoices campaign and urged other groups not to either.
Really, what she’s doing is representing her members. It’s in her members’ best interests for WorkChoices to stay so that’s what she’ll advocate. Just as its seen to be in the interest of the ACTU’s members for them to advocate the abolition of WorkChoices.
True though that for a while it seemed Roll out Ridout was there to be interviewed in every union scare story the Australian could come up with. Remember the one about builders working in “Risk of Rudd” clauses?
“On the Saturday evening before the election, Kevin Rudd was in Melbourne. It was an opportunity for some time off, an early night after five weeks of tough campaigning. Instead, Rudd went on to the streets to visit a soup kitchen and talk to the homeless people who rely on it. And he spent time at a homeless shelter, listening to the stories of the residents. There were no cameras, no reporters. The media were not told about the outing. It was not about votes. But it said a lot about the man who would be swept into the prime ministership a week later.”
“But the bloke offering “new leadership” also has the kind of concerns Labor leaders are supposed to have. Rudd is certainly, as he claims, an economic conservative, but he nevertheless has more in common with Tim Costello than with Peter. And the commentary suggesting he is a John Howard clone – a younger version of the PM the voters have so emphatically rejected – is mistaken.”
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/election_that_changes_everything.htm
Socrates…agree,and important to be able to discuss the characteristics of both Fascism and Communism as well as capitalism and socialism.
(Have we been backing away from the reds under the bed into the arms of fascism ?)
Found this eye-opener -www.rense.com/general37/fascism.htm
not just the characteristics but also the article “We thought we were free” .
Now to find something at the other end of the spectrum.
You kidding me LTEP, yes she did not support an advertising campaign but i do remember her on TV supporting workchoices and she did over and over. Yes she speaks for her group but should not go around being political and she was. She is now on television talking the economic rationalist line, taking skilled migrants from countries who lack such skills workers themselves, Ridout is one of those people who has never struggled in her life and has no idea of what it is like to struggle.
LETP: There’s a lot of small businesses that are glad to see Work Choices given the flick.
Crikey Whitey….you’ve got a good bead on Rudd’s knack of boring everyone witless with what were causes of inspiration!
I for one don’t trust people with religious hats who care about the poor what agendas do they have.
I really can’t imagine Brendan Nelson will last three years. I give him two max.
In the meantime Malcolm Turnbull will prove himself a capable money man as shadow Treasurer and demonstrate that he is capable of running the Opposition.
He will still have to wait a while to be PM unless there is a Depression. Some gloomy talk around to which I don’t subscribe. The new economy will be driven not by war and war preparedness as the American economy is currently but by the urgent need to address climate change. There will be massive new investments.
834
Lose the election please
If you can find it, Alan Ramsey did a monumental job on Malbull when he dared to slag Head of Treasury, when Ken Henry came out to say the $10 billion on the back of the envelope had never even been submitted to his department.
Malbull made some stupid comments about how he was dealing with “real people who had dirt under their fingernails”.
Ramsey’s piece was about Ken Henry’s childhood and his formative experiences. It was a slamming indictment of Malbull’s self-importance, and one of the best pieces of journalism I’ve read this year.
Do not fear, Turnbull is so very full of himself that he will get his turn to choke on his own ego.
Clive Hamilton creaming Ridout on television, he should be a cabinet secretary or advisor to this government, so much sense.
marky, I think his agenda is to lead a government that cares about the poor.
Finally watched the 7:30 Report from the ABC website. God Nelson is a bore. And who really thinks the leopard has changed its spots over night and become a more moderate party? Looks like they will oppose any IR changes, Aboriginal intervention and apologising to the Stolen Generation. Add to this that Bishop is deputy and IR shadow spokesperson just sums up what they have learnt from the weekend. Absolutely zero!!!
Well, in my view, it’s just going to be an absolute laugh a minute over the next few years. The Q’l’d Libs. are eating themselves, the W.A. Libs are doing a similiar implosion, N.S.W. Libs. are in the thrall of ghastly neo con religious wing nuts. Who knows about S.A.? Heather Ridout thinks the Labor line on industrial relations is admirable! Gawd! And Brendon Nelson- who got a universal total crack up laughing attack across my entire work place – when announced as Opposition Leader!
Crikey Whitey – wouldn’t that be terrific for Prof Lowitja get a top job. But it’s a bit of white fella dreamin’ if you think PM Rudd will be rushing into symbolism of that degree. Just think back to last week and his contortions on the radio about Sorry.
As for the Presidential candidates you list, agree with the lot, except Ian Chappell – great cricket captain, but only good at leading those who agree with him. Better leave out his brother Greg too, after the recent ABC show about his tenure in India as their coach. It wasn’t a triumph of engagement with new peoples.
You talking about Tim Costello Grog?
869 KR. I for one don’t fear Turnbull. Too many ALP supporters see him as a kind of Albert Speer of the Liberal party – you know, “the good Liberal”. Mostly this is based on his head of the Republican cause.
Don’t forget Costello is a Republican as well.
Turnbull stood up to be counted with John Howard and everything he stood for.
I for one dont mind the crazy nutjobs on this blog whose line of attack is personal abuse, I take that as a sign of a weak argument.
What is sad that we have lost the middle of the road – the Oakeshott’s, Hugo’s etc. It seems in many ways the blog is now dominated by cheerleaders and Labor job seekers.
Oh well!
Recent research Grog suggests Speer was anything but the good nazi.
Marky – I assumed you were referring to the Bulletin Article:
“As part of the most negative campaign ever seen in this country, John Howard and his lieutenants had tried to portray the Labor leader as a politician bereft of genuine beliefs. Tony Abbott, shameless as always, even tried to cast doubt on Rudd’s Christian faith. But Australia’s new prime minister has strong principles. Christian principles. He believes in good works, and he practises what he preaches.”
878 ESJ. Exactly.
Watch the 7:30 Report, Nelson is a disaster. We are back to the crap over sorry. Mean spirited nonsense.
The lodge handover – they actually look genuinely happy ???
Marky Marky – I was in the audience for this program, and Clive Hamilton was talking nonsense. Apparently we have no skills crisis, we should have zero net immigration and we have no ageing workforce.
I’m usually sympathetic to his ideas, but he was off with the pixies tonight.
ESJ
I’d be sorry to see you go from this blog and enjoy your verbal jousts.
And while my schardenfreud-meter has been off the scale since about 6.30pm Saturday, personally I’d also hate to see this blog lose the ability to sniff out the stench of rotting fish that often eminates from the HQ of NSW Labor as well. 🙂
[The lodge handover – they actually look genuinely happy ???
Therese Rein always looks happy.
marky marky @ 867. It’s a bit complicated really and usually requires sittting with such a person for some time, listening, trying to clarify if they are clearly nuts, or actually have something to say. Sadly, most people who think they are the second coming of whatever deity they believe in, are just certifiable, tho’ sometimes we can talk them into some things that help their lives be less tortured. Jeez, you people are interesting to speak with. I thought I could just bugger off!
They were probably impressed by how clean it was. Hardly lived in for 11 years.
[ESJ
I’d be sorry to see you go from this blog and enjoy your verbal jousts.]
Has this thread been converted to a Lack-of-Victory Lap for ESJ?
ShowsOn
Its our left-wing compassion coming out – thats why we form more tolerant governments!
ESJ @ 877 – I wouldn’t worry too much – it’s ok. I get the impression that there are a few non-party members here. As a confirmed non-member all my life I like to read the posts of others whose principles are not hanging on a party hook inside a branch meeting door . That’s not to say that party members are not worth reading – most are, although the tunnel-visioned of both sides are tiresome at times. And what’s the point of becoming personally abusive? One’s argument is lost immediately.
[end of sanctimonious interlude]
I’m not surprised that Greg Combet has got this new little jobbie as defence procurement parly sect. It says to me that Kev wants out of the Super Hornet contract and Combet has the brains and the brawn to do it. What joy that the new Opposition Leader is Mr Super Hornet himself!
I used to call Nelson the Minister for Saluting Flagpoles, but might have to go with the Super Horn moniker now.
887 [They were probably impressed by how clean it was. Hardly lived in for 11 years.]
I thought they were expressing delight about how cheap the rent is.
Geez that Sheahan guy on Difference of Opinion s***ts me. I sat through a “Gen Y” seminar of his a year or so back (a forced exercise). He is all form and no substance. Wait for him to mention his latest book.
Charles he is absolutely right, it is a beat up. We have over 30 per cent of our workforce who are working casually Charles and cannot get full time jobs, i work with a number.
I also work with people who have degrees in business, and working casually. Charles get fair dinkum. Have you heard of the hidden unemployment- you only have work about 4 hours a fortnight? to not be counted as unemployed. The rate is deceptive. We may have a skills crisis in certain areas, but why as Clive rightly points out look at what we are doing in our uni’s making the point scoring systems for courses so high and restrictive that no one can enter them. We need to employ our own and provide fairness in the workplace by having people who are working long hours, working a little less and people working few hours taking up the slack. Charles you are wrong.
Isn’t it O.K. that Kevvie & his beloved said a polite goodbye?
Marky Marky, who is Charles?
Sorry Charlie. There has been a Charles on this blog and for some reason got mixed up. Thought you were little left for him.
866 Neilbris
Looking for positive feedback. Just skip me if you’re bored.
I admire the fact that Kevvie and his beloved were always noice, always said ‘Mr Howard’ and ‘Mrs Howard’ whereas JohnandJanette were as rude as could be. It’s a matter of discipline, not niceness.
Nico- one gets the feeling that he likes hearing his voice.