Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, but I suspect they will be happening sooner or later in Higgins, Mayo, Berowra and perhaps Lyne.
Queensland Liberals. The state Liberal Party has been plunged into a constitutional crisis by a four-all leadership deadlock between incumbent Bruce Flegg and challenger Tim Nicholls. Flegg and his three supporters voted down a leadership spill motion yesterday, prompting state president Warwick Parer to declare he must “do the honourable thing and stand down”. The two groups might end up holding separate party room meetings today, each claiming official status. Nicholls is associated with the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano faction of the Queensland Liberal Party, and is supported in the party room by John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Jann Stuckey (Currumbin) and Steve Dickson (Kawana). Flegg represents the moderate “western suburbs” faction and is supported by Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Ray Stevens (Robina) and Glen Elmes (Noosa), at least for now: the Courier-Mail reports Flegg’s supporters are united by animus towards the Santoro faction, and would be willing to back a candidate other than Flegg to keep Nicholls out.
Western Australian Liberals. It had long been understood that the looming federal election was the only thing preventing a challenge against Liberal leader Paul Omodei, and the talk is that a spill will be on next week. On Tuesday the ABC reported that Omodei was about to be tapped on the shoulder and asked to make way for Vasse MP Troy Buswell. Omodei – a dangerous man to be around at times – today told the media any colleagues who did so would be “very lucky if they don’t get a good right hook, and they’ll be lucky to get out of the room standing up”. Like his Queensland counterpart Tim Nicholls, Buswell is a first-term MP. Meantime, former leader Colin Barnett has announced he will not seek re-election for his seat of Cottesloe at the state election due in February 2009. Barnett has told The West Australian he has thought better of retiring immediately, because it “wasn’t the right thing to do and a lot of people in my electorate want me to stay”. His enemies in the Liberal Party say he’ s only staying to block any move to recruit Julie Bishop to the state party leadership by having her take his seat at a by-election.
Northern Territory ALP. Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Stirling have both pulled up stumps and moved to the back bench. The Northern Territory News reports that leadership rival Paul Henderson delivered Martin a “gentle ultimatum” a few weeks ago. Martin accepted this without demur as she had lost her enthusiasm for the job following the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Mutterings first emerged last November that Martin’s inaction in indigenous affairs had cost her the support of the most of the Aboriginal members of caucus, and that a challenge by Henderson would win the support of 10 out of 19 party room members. Martin and Stirling have both vowed to remain in parliament until the election due in mid-2009, so it does not appear we will be treated to by-elections in Fannie Bay and Nhulunbuy.
In late election counting news, Labor’s Jason Young is back in front of Andrew Laming in Bowman, if only by 21 votes. The pattern of voting in 2004 suggests Young has cleared his biggest hurdle now that pre-polls have been counted (mostly if not entirely), and should be able to keep his nose in front on remaining postal (where he has performed strongly so far), absent and provisional votes. In Herbert, Defence Force votes have slashed Labor’s lead from 528 to 36: the outlook appears better for Labor’s George Colbran now those are out of the way, but like Bowman it’s still close enough that anything could happen. Liberal member Peter Dutton’s lately acquired lead continues to widen in Dickson, and the Liberals are home and hosed in La Trobe and Macarthur. The only reason McEwen is not on the list is those votes we were told about which were wrongly sent to Scullin, on which I have heard nothing further. Defence Force votes have cut Labor candidate Damian Hale’s lead over CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon from 718 votes to 427, but he should still get up unless there’s a surprise lurking in the remaining pre-polls. The trend in Swan contains to favour Liberal candidate Steve Irons, now 136 votes in front, although there will be very little in it either way. Anyone wishing to discuss these results is encouraged to use the dedicated threads linked to in the sidebar.
A couple of other seats worth noting. The Greens camp has been talking up a possible late-count boilover in O’Connor, where Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner could theoretically overtake Labor’s Dominic Rose and surf over Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey on preferences. At the moment Gardiner is some way behind Rose, 20.42 per cent to 18.37 per cent. It is argued that most of the 9.28 per cent vote that went to various minor candidates will go to Gardiner as preferences, although a good many went straight to Tuckey in 2004. The other question is how many of the 6.68 per cent who voted Greens followed the card and gave their second preferences to the Nationals. If the combined 15.96 per cent from minor parties delivers the Nationals 2.06 per cent more than Labor, Gardiner might be in business. In 2004 there was an 18.8 per cent minor party vote that split 7.8 per cent Labor, 5.7 per cent Nationals and 5.3 per cent, but the Greens were running split-ticket how-to-vote cards as opposed to their direct recommendation to the Nationals this time.
A late-count surprise has been a narrowing of Labor’s margin in Flynn, where postal votes have split over 70-30 in favour of the Nationals. This is because postal voting is a favoured method of voters in isolated rural areas, although the size of the gap is still a surprise. Whether or not the Nationals are still a show depends on whether there are more postals to come. Today’s Courier-Mail states that “postal votes were counted today”, which sounds like it means they were all counted, in which case the remaining 590-vote Labor lead should be enough. Pre-polls have in fact been running quite heavily in Labor’s favour, and absent votes are unlikely to buck the overall trend.
Corangamite is now on the AEC “close seats” list with pre-polls and postals having favoured the Liberals 57-43, cutting the Labor lead from 2217 to 767. However, there should be few if any remaining pre-polls and postals, and Labor did quite a lot better on the uncounted absent and provisional votes in 2004.
There has been no significant progress in Senate counting this week, but it might yet be worth keeping an eye on the Australian Capital Territory. The Liberal vote is clear of a 33.3 per cent quota on 34.1 per cent, which will need to drop at least 1.5 per cent if the Greens are to sneak through for an upset. At the 2004 election it actually increased by 0.22 per cent.
Donation made, thanks William 🙂
891 What joy that the new Opposition Leader is Mr Super Hornet himself!
Yes, I think that Mr Super Hornet it is the sort of nickname that Nelson would love. He will like it even better next year when he finds the name has stuck but the contract been set free. Combet would relish the task of cleaning up the mess left by Mr Super Hornet. In fact if you haven’t nailed down the title with super glue or copyright, I might just borrow the title for my own political purposes.
How many portfolios do each of the Queensland Libs have?
Sorry Marky, it was nit-picking.
We do have underemployment, mate, but it is concentrated amongst the lowest-skilled parts of the workforce. We DO have critical shortages of skilled labour.
The best thing we can do about this is simple – educate people and then educate them some more. However, the reality is that, like nearly all developed countries, we have a low birthrate. That means that immigration is going to continue to play a critical role in our economy for the foreseeable future. Hamilton didn’t say the words – ‘net zero immigration’ – but what he was arguing for was essentially the same as what clowns like One Nation propose. He has his head in the sand if he doesn’t think that an ageing workforce is going to affect our quality of life.
TO HENRY BOWE
per aec site ‘declaration vote srutiny’
Many ‘marginal LCP seats have LARGE “absentee” envelopes issued but NIL received
eg. Macquarie 5365
Lindsay 5210
Corangamite 5579
does this mean , they are still to be received by aec ?
Harry & Marky – . The question is how much do you want medieval superstition to inform decisions that directly affect the whole electorate, most of whom have moved on? Rudd should drop the religious thing from the public eye – it must not become relevant to his decision-making.
I cannot abide the real American pre-condition for political office being religious belief. I think we are moving in that direction too. The problem with it is that a general tolerance of ‘moderate’ religious types gives cover to religious extremists, such as the neo-cons in the US. Have you read about the Mormon candidate in the US? -talk about freaky. But then 70% of Americans believe in creation. Oh, dear …
Tend to agree, people should not be working until they die on the shopfloor.
Brendan Nelson:
Leader of the Opposition & Shadow Minister for HUGE portraits of Neville Bonner
Harry “Snapper” Organs says –
[Sadly, most people who think they are the second coming of whatever deity they believe in, are just certifiable, tho’ sometimes we can talk them into some things that help their lives be less tortured.]
Actually I reckon you’ll also find quite a few incidences in human history where the so-called nut-jobs and ‘extremists’ actually turn out to have been completely right. With the real nut-jobs actually being the status quo…
Anyone heard of Galileo and the Church? Earth the centre of the universe and all that…
There you go, an organisation that was acting on behalf of the ‘first coming’ (long since dead) to suppress a bit of real knowledge (a real fact!) that would transform peoples ideas about their world.
Damn those bloody nut-jobs eh, and their so-called tele-scopes.
Just because most people believe something, doesn’t actually mean that is the way world actually is.
Sadly perhaps, the majority could be just as likely deluded as a minority, it is called human stupidity. Which again perhaps sadly, appears to be the only universal human attribute. Oh, and smiling.
The fact is that smear and prejudice and closed minds have probably been one of the biggest factors in much of human misery.
“The most important lesson of history is that people don’t learn the lessons of history” Aldous Huxley
I think that the most telling thing that I saw today was Malcolm Turnbull’s slip up as he exited the party room.
“They’ll….We’ll win in 2010.”
Nelson is screwed. It’ll only take one speechwriter to be a Turnbull fan and Nelson will find himself having his own “Things that batter” moment.
Steve, spread the Mr Super Hornet thang far and wide. I certainly will. And I will borrow Annabel Crabbe’s take on Julie Bishop – Krystle Carrington. Krystle and the Super Hornet – says all one needs to.
I see little evidence of this with Rudd, what i hate though is that our politicians use religon as a form of moralistic virtue or to show a compassionate side but in the end with the policies they set they seem to be the opposite, Howard and Iraq war, Children overboard. Religion in politics i agree has no place and should be left alone.
With Tim Costello i always saw him as a fence sitter in regards with the Howard Government and could never really like him. He rarely criticised it.
Lateline announced Gavan O’Connor rather than Brendan as part of the ministry. Easy to confuse mediocre time server with talentless hack. Which is which, you ask.
7.30 report TV footage 1993 election:
Nelson on a podium saying “I’ve never voted Labor in my life”
The Liberal hard heads will NEVER allow Nelson to front an election campaign as this replay in a campaign would demolish his credibility
IF you doubt this , imagine 2007 campaign showing Rudd in 1993 saying “I’ve never voted Labor”…Howard would have demolished his credibility
Be careful what you say Ghost his brother may get his pathetic union on to you.
Ghost,
Who’s the lateline interviewee, please?
Mr Super Hornet dogged by ALP past.
Dr Nelson was elected Opposition leader today by three votes over his rival, Malcolm Turnbull.
After his victory, he said he came from a Labor family.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/29/2105620.htm
Ally Moore with Lindsay Tanner
May I suggest a nice alliteration for the new leader, Dr Half Nelson:
Horatio Hornet
P.S. to Ghost
A spent a late night getting elephant’s trunk with Cairns two months before Whitlam beat McMahon. He’s a top bloke.
Crikey: Sorry you misunderstood. I thought what you wrote was insightful and funny. It was your parody of the managerial approach to achieving the ‘vision thing’ that I was sending up.
912 – Marky – Not a DLP govt.? I hope not. I agree about Tim C and many thousands like him. When you think about types like Abbott & Co – they are sooo devout and yet take part in decisions that obviously hurt the disadvantaged. For them religion is merely a means to control – as in Opus Dei in NSW Libs
Thanks, Double Marky.
Agree with that assessment, Cairns was great.
758, I got $9.60 on Betfair, first time I’ve ever backed a Lib and I won, does this mean I should keep supporting them?
What Jim wanted was a whole ministry for youth issues, but never got within cooee of that goal———unless you count Juni Morosi.
[I agree about Tim C and many thousands like him. When you think about types like Abbott & Co – they are sooo devout and yet take part in decisions that obviously hurt the disadvantaged.]
I thought Abbott’s attack on Rudd over Rudd’s Christianity was the lowest of low. Abbott accused Rudd of of supporting killing because Rudd voted to allow the introduction of the RU486 abortion drug.
This was an idiotic criticism by Abbott, because it pre-supposes that when life begins is a completely uncontroversial issue. Abbott seemed to be saying that every Christian must accept as a piece of dogma that two cells equals a human life, and if they don’t then they can’t call themselves Christians.
Love your work, Kirribilli Removals.
Krystle Carrington?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krystle_Carrington
If only. Kirribilli Removals.
Now, I really am looking for serious comment, criticism on my 855.
I do intend to send it to Kevin. With any comments.
A bit of a shoving may assist.
Whatever Kev prevaricated about, jaundiced view, and thanks, it is up to people like us to ensure that this is the message.
Ps Only dreamed up a few candidates. Last time I think some wanted Warnie.
Seems like the Super Hornet is already being left in Rudd’s wake. Don’t think he will be able to handle the pace of a workaholic like Rudd.
Newly elected Liberal leader Brendan Nelson says he is not in favour of the Labor plan to say sorry to Aboriginal Australians.
Prime Minister-elect Kevin Rudd says there will be a formal apology to the stolen generation of Indigenous people.
Dr Nelson says he wants to discuss the issue with his Liberal colleagues, but he says he does not see the need for an apology.
“We in my view we have no responsibility to apologise or take ownership for what was done by earlier generations,” he said.
The beaten Liberal leader candidate, Malcolm Turnbull, also supported the apology and said it was a mistake for the Howard Government to have refused to say sorry.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/29/2105652.htm?section=justin
For those that like to laugh…
The position of the QLD Liberals explained…
Mr Nicholls wants to take over from Dr Flegg, but having only 4 out of 8 votes in the party room, he could not get a spill motion passed. Prior to that both groups of 4 has seperate meetings, that the opposing 4 could not or would not attend.
Mr Nicholls says that Dr Flegg does not have the support of half of the party room (true) and that he should resign, or declare the leadership vacant and, that Dr Flegg should vote for Mr Nicholls, or abstain from voting.
Dr Flegg says that no one has more support than he himself does (also true) and that he should therefore remain as leader. Dr Flegg says that he does not actually want to be leader and is sorry that he he accepted the position in the first place, but that he will not give it up for Mr Nicholls.
Both men say that the other’s position is untenable.
Dr Flegg has offered to stand aside and hand over to his current (loyal) deputy Mark McArdle, if one of Mr Nicholl’s supporters will in turn serve Mr McArdle as deputy, however so far on Flegg loyalist Mr Stevens has indicatd a wilingness to do so. John-Paul Langbroek has indicated that he does want to be deputy, but not under Mr Mcardle.
Apparently the Liberal’s State Council is still in session and debating “whether to give the party state president Warwick Parer a vote if future leadership ballots became tied”.
Dr Flegg has indicated that if any such motion is passed and acted upon, then he will probably take the matter to court, as his advice is that such action is contrary to the constitution of the Liberal Party.
I ask the question again how many portifolios do each member of the Queensland Libs hold?
Is the story true that Nelson has been married 3 times
after saying in the 1993 election campaign on TV “I’ve never voted Liberal”)
Here’s Annabel on Julie Krystle Bishop:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/who-needs-people-skills-with-dynasty-onfreetoair/2007/11/28/1196036982623.html
I admit I liked “People Skills” better.
932 Fargo61, the bit that you left out is that Parer is the Former Minister for coal who doesn’t believe in standing down for any reason when it is Parer himself under pressure but now he demands Flegg stand down.
He’ll find out what work really is then because there is a lot of it. Not only the SHs, but the F-35s are totally inadequate as F-111 replacements (which don’t need replacing anyway), and may end up not be a match for the Su-30s that are popping up throughout the our region, though to be fair it was Robert Hill and JWH who lumbered us with the F-35 deal. Then there are the question marks over the second hand tanks, problems with some of the army’s most basic weaponry, not enough air refuelers, still no choppers for the navy frigates, ……..
Yes, Ron Brown, Brendan Nelson has been married 3 times.
Beautiful, Kirribilli Removals (auspiciously sharing initials with the PM I notice). How about working on one for ms bishop?
Julie Bishop:Alas, poor johnny. i knew him, horatio.(exeunt stage right)
So what are the chances one of the wives is going to come out and do a Mrs Hewson No1 on Sixty Minutes at an opportune time?
ShowsOn – 927 – Remember Santamaria, and Brian Harradine.. Abbott is cast in the same mould. Kevin Andrews also wears his fantasy world on his sleeve. We certainly do not want “me too”on this front. How many irrational believers are there on the Rudd front bench I wonder? Having a quick just now it seems there are likely to be quite a few non-believers among them, which is comforting, if not only because non-believers tend to be more intelligent! (myself excluded from sample)
God I love John Hewson – “We hawven’t sween the bwest of Bwenden Newlson”
933 Marky Marky, Here is the whole Qld coalition.
http://qldcoalition.org.au/people/default.aspx
Fargo61,
It only makes sense if there is something happening outside the parliamentary party.
For example, the Leaders vote of the parliamentary party has a specific vote in another forum which the agitators need and the defenders think they must protect.
It is all a bit surreal. The classic arguing about the spoils of irrelevance. But, hey, it keeps them off the street and small furry animal are safe.
Now i know what happened to those Doctors wives’…
Poll Results
Who said that online poll results are unreliable? … From the Courier Mail website.
Thanks for voting, here are the results so far:
Who would be the best person to lead the State Liberals?
Bruce Flegg 4% (127 votes)
Tim Nicholls 17% (464 votes)
John Paul Langbroek 5% (138 votes)
Mickey Mouse 72% (1878 votes)
Sum votes: Total votes: 2607 votes so far
Tigger would`ve romped it in.
945 The Liberal member for Currumbin on the Gold Coast Jann Stuckey is a Doctor’s wife too.
I think Mickey needs to come out boldly and either run or support the leadership.
Greatness awaits!
Marky Marky, I just looked it up. Remember that the Nationals and Liberals are still in Coalition in opposition in Queensland, so a majority of shadows are Nationals MPs.
Bruce Flegg is Shadow Treasurer. John-Paul Langbroek is Shadow Health Minister. Mark McArdle is Shadow Attorney-General and Shadow Minister for Justice and Fair Trading. Tim Nicholls is Shadow Minister for Transport and Traffic Management, Trade, Employment and Industrial Relations. Ray Stevens is Shadow Minister for Housing Affordability and Public Works, Information and Communication Technology. Janet Stuckey is Shadow Minister for Child Safety and Women. The other two Liberal MPs are backbenchers.