That lucid analysis I promised two posts ago will still have to wait another day. In the meantime, I have added a new “photo finish” thread below for Dickson, where Labor’s lead is an uncomfortable 389 votes, to those already existing for Swan, Solomon, McEwen, Macarthur, La Trobe, Herbert, Bowman and the Victorian Senate. It would also be remiss of me not to note the very sad passing of Matt Price, taken far too young at 46.
Hemingway Says: Quotable Quotes thread at 835.
November 26th, 2007 at 8:22 am
“Fat chance. Fraser’s landslide was all about the economy, stupid. Just as Hawke’s landslide and then Howard’s would be.
Kerr and Fraser split this country into such entrenched divisions that Fraser was unwilling to be as economically conservative as Howard (first elected in Bennelong during the Sneddon election) and other right-wingers wanted to go.
Howard’s humiliation is the final chapter in the saga of The Dismissal”.
Hemingway, yours is a most astute observation. I felt there was something else, though couldn’t finger it. But you are dead right. May I suggest you send it to the Age, apropos Paul Keating’s article in today’s Age, ‘The Liberals must purge the reactionaries’ November 26, 2007
Second yours and others to John of Melbourne, this thread.
John.
I’ll go Petro!
It’ll never happen though – But from all the election results on Saturday night, there can be no greater rejection of the Howard agenda than the fact that Georgio recorded absolutely 0% swing against him.
JoM – fair play to you and congrats on the quality of your posting here in the face of concerted majority opposition.
Some of you will remember I was running a “seats that will change” prediction contest a few weeks back, where specific seats needed to be nominated. The winner is yet to be determined, depending on the undecided results. However it would appear that BenC or SwingLowe will be the likely winners. Special mention to Ruawake who was the only one to mention Dawson as a Labor gain !!
Crikey Whitey @ 101
Thanks, mate. I might do that.
I think the liberal party loss is solely due to Howard hanging on for so long. He should have handed over te reigns of power long ago. He has only himself to blame.
Re Costello why would you take on the leadership of a losing party and do a Snedden. Chances are you will lose the next election. By the time Costello has a real chance to win he will be seen as the duck that could not fly. Problem is that on hearing Downer this morning on ABC radio he is pitching the line that he is the elder statesman and has experience as opposition leader, If the Liberal appoint Alex as their no one then the Liberals will undergo a serious demoralisation. Its already happening as the factions in the Liberal Party are bitching as we speak/write/
Whats clear is that Labor is pitching for the middle ground and it is unlikely they will falter come the next election (We should have four-year terms).
I would not expect much significant change in the way Australia operates BUT it will be a bit of fresh air and a sense of revival.
I suspect a Nelson and Bishop (Julie) will become the leader for the libs with Turnbull taking over Nelson in a few years. Just pure speculation but that seems to be the best possible course of action for them. If Abbott or any of the others take over, I believe that the Libs would self destruct even more and force themselves into exile for an even longer period.
Well I said last week that it was all over bar the bitter recriminations, and we are clearly into that phase.
Given JOM’s gracious statement, to be constructive in return, I agree you must elect someone as leader who was not closely connected to Howard. Otherwise they are just a liability. So Abbott, Andrews and Ruddock are non starters IMO.
Greens polled highest in the State in Mayo, caller says.
Still speculating on radio about possibility Downer hinted at earlier, that he may go.
Clare Martin has resigned.
Would Downer ever put the (tacit) proposition “appoint me leader or I’ll resign from the parliament”? That’s the sounds he seems to be putting forward.
While Petro is the last bastion of lower-l liberals, he is no leader. He nearly sent the Kooyong branch broke without fundraising. He just might take on some front bench of the opposition. Given that the battle looks to be Turnbull and Abbott, I don’t think there is room for a third.
is it possible pete the meek is being strategic in not running for lib leader at this stage? given aussie elector’s propensity to give new governments a second term perhaps he could have a tilt at the leadership when the then lib leader resigns after rudd’s first re-election. “he’s coming back!”. get him some braces.
well amused by the enthusiam for abbott as leader in this blog. i think his tenure would be filarious. mind you he’s got about as much chance of that as he has of getting to heaven.
Who thinks Abbott will turn up on time to the leadership ballot?
st admit I’m a little dissapointed that Peter Costello wont be taking up the Liberal leadership. I was entertaining the delightful irony of a Abbott and Costello.
Wouldn’t Turnbull and Abbott simply be almost a vote on how the Libs see their future?
I’d be massively concerned (if i was a lib voter) if Abbott was elected – unless the purpose was to have him as a ‘caretaker’ leader to give the Libs some guff after a tough loss, and then to shaft him 18 months from the election.
Although, i can’t see abbott taking the job as a ‘caretaker’…..
Shoul read: I must admit…
Matthew Sykes @ 104,
Yay! This gets better and better… Do I win a prize 🙂
John of Melbourne, as others have already said, thanks for your comments in regards to the Labor’s victory. As with others, I do wish the Liberals well in rebuilding as only with a strong opposition can governments be held accountable.
Can’t imagine Downer would have, or even believe himself to have, the internal fortitude to pull the Libs together. He needs to pull himself together first. He seems to have been on the brink of hysteria most of the year. 11 years as Foreign Minister would be a particularly hard act to follow. I reckon he’ll be leaving soon.
I’ve heard Abbot has majority support in the party. Please let it be true.
Calm down Sing Lowe, you haven’t won yet 🙂 You’ve done well in your predictions, the only one you’ve got wrong so far is your prediction of a Labor win in Stirling.
As for a prize … I can blow you a kiss if you like !! Or if you’re ever in Adelaide, I’ll shout you a beer.
Yo ho ho @ 116 – That is what is needed. A vote for Turnbull is a vote for lower-l liberals. Abbott would be slaughtered by the front bench full of female ministers, and would probably turn women away from the Liberals.
Abbott is also too close to the policies of the past, including WorkChoices. If he gets up he will try to block the ALP’s new IR policy, which seems that the ALP is going to get businesses and the unions to have a say in. Blocking the IR policy only make people cement their ideas about IR. It’s time for the Liberals to be progressive.
Still, I think Turnbull is not experienced enough, and Abbott is too close to the past. What the party does is up to them, but navel gazing shouldn’t be one of them.
LTEP,
Yesterday the story was that Nelson had the majority support of the party. What I’m guessing is that the leaks saying this sort of stuff are from members of the anti-Turnbull camp in the Liberal party, who seem to be doing anything to stop Turnbull from becoming Opposition Leader.
P.S. Let me take the time to thank JoM for his gracious comments and his valuable commentary on this site. Without people like him, this blog would be a much less interesting (and intellectually stimulating) site than it is. Thank you.
Costello isn’t going to hang around on the backbench for nothing. Clearly he doesn’t want the heavy load of opposition leader in Labors first term. The second term would be a different matter, particularly if the economy is slowing down. He could set himself up as Australia’s economic saviour.
I know, I know, it’s not a time to start worrying about winning the next election/elections. But just indulge me for a moment.
Ross Gittins is now saying there’s quite a likely chance of a recession hitting Australia, through no fault of Labor. What will the fallout be if this happens?
The obvious thing you fear is that tough economic times will hit, and Rudd will get blamed for it. And the Libs will spin this into a story about their superior economic management.
well said J of M! That’s the spirit.
I tend to agree with you, moreover, that anyone senior minister associated with Howard era should probably move on now. Id say Downer will resign from the shadow frontbench tomorrow. He and Tip have no doubt done the right thing.
Hopefully, it should serve as an example to Abbott. Its over. Abbott is the main rep of a political tendency within the Libs that has been thoroughly rejected by the public. He should probably leave parliament altogether. His mere presence will retard the sort of changes they’ll need to make themselves electable again.
Nelson is just new enough to hang on, and obviously Turnbull Bishop etc. Nelson is probably a good choice for a stop-gap – they guy who wont ever be elected, but can start the renewal process.
LTEP – Stop teasing us. What’s your new name going to be?
(PS – Good to see you flying the ALP flag so strongly over the past few days, putting the lie to those absurd suggestions from some that you were a tory troll in disguise. I never believed that for a moment).
slackboy at 95.
Honestly!
The best Costello mentor for the Liberal party would be Tim.
Problem with Turnbull is that his constituency (high-income yuppies stuck with the Liberals) stuck with the Liberals. He won’t be distinctive enough from Labor to give voters a reason to switch, whereas Abbott is too distinctive.
I can more easily (and very happily 🙂 ) see Abbott getting the numbers than Turnbull. Mind you, at this stage I’m thinking Nelson could end up being the consensus candidate that both sides of the party will settle for. I’d be just as happy with that, to be honest.
Bring on the DD election, and 100 Labor seats. 😀
106 – Melbcity – yes, the Libs lost a chance at renewal and it can be a powerful factor in re-electing governments with waning popularity and policy agendas (e.g. NSW Labor). But the moment has passed. The Libs will need more that leadership renewal, they will now need significant policy renewal, and they are in the unenviable situation of being forced to side with FF in the senate if they want to vote down Labor legislation. This will make it difficult to take the fight to Labor on the middle ground and give Labor huge wedge opportunities.
peter hendy on abc news looks like he is happy (NOT)
oops the abc just lost the feed just as he started gasbagging lol
I’m betting Alexander Downer steps down tomorrow.
It’s a shame some vile Liberal Party members are scurrying away before I get to watch them sulk from the opposition seats in parliment.
Sean, You speak wisely.
Costello would relish being “forced” to cancel his retirement plans and humbly assume the Leadership.
Sounds like the way Lazarus with a triple bypass was humbly “forced” to return as Opp. Leader when Downer came a cropper. They’re never gone until they’re gone.
Darn… I don’t know to be honest!
How about… Let Them Eat Pork?
Betamax @ 126, I think Rudd better start crafting the lines now, just as Howard honed them over the years, you know the sort of thing “Labor’s $X debt”, “17% interest rates under Labor” etc. Rudd’s lines would emphasise Howard’s failure to invest in infrastructure that could have led to productivity growth, squandering the dividend of the mining boom, ignoring education, huge foreign debt etc.
A compunding problem as the Liberals squabble over the spoils of defeat will be that they will very likely not have sufficient funds to mount a campaign state or Federal for many years. If I was a Businessman I certainly would be reticent to pour good money into any Liberal campaign in the next five years.
Hemingway-
missed that Baird performance. Thanks for bringing me back to reality.I am really fossicking for some granules of gold in the ashes.
Ruddock and Andrews? Surely tongue -in-cheek?
Will consolidate Labor even furth….ahhhhh……(the sound of a penny dropping) !
hendy is back -asked question re unions -worried labor will be beholden to them lol
they still dont get it
the people have spoken
Jude @137, the problem with the tactic is that it has a shelf life. It is backward looking and is part of the reason for the defeat. The lines become a mantra and then a prism through which all policy is seen. It is a very difficult habit to break. I hope we have seen the end of governments that bring up 20, 30, 40 year old government decisions in an attempt to be re-elected.
Abbott looks to me like the Liberal-version of Keating. Good performer in Parliament who always puts up a fight, but also manages to piss off a lot of people. That probably works better in Government than in Opposition, but who knows…?
Spot on, Steve. Turnbull can’t fund everything! (In Wentworth we were getting glossy pamphlets in the mail just about every day in the last weeks.) Much as I’d like to see Turnbull as a future leader, I can’t see him having much appeal to the “Howard battler” constituency. Even though he’s a self-made man he’d be seen as too much of a silvertail. Point Piper’s a long way from Struggle St.
Pyne still saying he is running for Deputy Leader even though he hasn’t won a seat yet. The story of postal votes is another factor working against the Libs at the next election as it worked for them at the weekend.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/pyne-still-considering-leadership-role/20071126-1ct1.html
Steve,
Pyne looks safe in Sturt. And he’s probably not going to get the deputy leadership (Bishop and Robb look to be favourites).
Re Costello staying. Someone wrote yesterday that Costello maxes his super if he stays till 18th march 2008.
I would suggest that will be an important date regardigng possible resignation. The other imprtant thing will be to get his mate Michael Kroger the pre-selection in Higgins.
Given Kennett’s contribution this morning, it could be a bloody fight.
[‘Senator Brandis dismissed the suggestion Labor’s landslide victory on Saturday gave it a mandate to change the laws which were seen a key election issue.
“This is the mandate theory that I don’t particularly subscribe to,” Senator Brandis told ABC Radio in Brisbane.
“I think it’s a weak theory, unless it could be said unequivocally that the election turned on one issue and one issue alone.
“I myself think the overwhelming factor was just a desire for change – you couldn’t say that this election was decided on Work Choices.”‘]
I guess Howard didn’t have a mandate after all when he lied about the GST.
http://news.theage.com.au/labor-has-no-mandate-for-ir-changes/20071126-1csr.html
Re 134,
The Duke Says:
That wouldn’t surprise me one bit for a variety of reasons.
1. rumours flying over the last 3 to 6 months about his interest in state politics
2. his interview on Insiders Sunday morning (pre Costello announcement btw) – he looked like death warmed over he was so upset (maybe he had been crying all night or had little or no sleep). I can’t imagine he will be happy at all on the back bench.
3. Another PB’r posted information after he got home from working a booth in Mayo on Saturday. Don’t remember who it was but he would recognize himself if he reads this comment. He said that they were told when they took the bunting down to “be careful” with it as it might be needed for a by-election.
As much as I hate to acknowledge it, if Costello had even half the single minded determination Howard had throughout the eighties and nineties to become Prime Minister he would not be cutting and running now. When Howard famously declared that Kim Beazley didn’t have the ticker for the job, it would have been much more accurate if he’d said it of his own treasurer.
Having said that, I can in a way understand why Costello is giving them the finger.
It was obvious that Howard had lied in denying the commitment he had given to him to hand over the Prime Ministership after a couple of terms, in return for a clear run at the leadership – a win, win for both of them – and the party knew that. Now they expect him to pick up the pieces. But the fact remains, if Costello wanted the top job badly enough – as Howard did – he would stay.
Here it is – Howards gone.
McKew claims PM’s seat
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/mckew-claims-pms-seat/2007/11/26/1196036777768.html