The day after the day after

That lucid analysis I promised two posts ago will still have to wait another day. In the meantime, I have added a new “photo finish” thread below for Dickson, where Labor’s lead is an uncomfortable 389 votes, to those already existing for Swan, Solomon, McEwen, Macarthur, La Trobe, Herbert, Bowman and the Victorian Senate. It would also be remiss of me not to note the very sad passing of Matt Price, taken far too young at 46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,367 comments on “The day after the day after”

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  1. Idle curiosity question

    Norfolk Island residents

    can enrol for a division in a state to which they have a connection, for the Division of Canberra in the ACT or for the Division of Solomon in the NT.

    I can’t find a booth on norfolk in the results. Are they all postal votes or something?

  2. You know all things said I felt sorry for Howard on Saturday night. Why didn’t the silly old bugger go out gracefully. I felt empathy rather than jubilation at getting the icing on the cake. What an insult to lose your own seat!
    I am glad Turnbull has put his hand up. You need a credible opposition and new leadership with fresh ideas.

  3. An Honest Mistake – yeah, right.

    The SMH letters page includes this pearler of a paragraph.

    Mantras about “children overboard”, “never, ever GST” and other concoctions became such a feature of reporting that even the most knowledgeable voter would have concluded these were Machiavellian actions by Howard aimed at manipulating a naive electorate. The anti-Howard lobby would never allow the PM the benefit of an honest misunderstanding about children overboard, and that an election over GST was about the most honourable thing he could have done to ensure he had a mandate to introduce it.

    An honest misinderstanding? Spin the onther one.

    Link here

  4. Matt Price was an inspiring journalist in a field of uninspiring hacks. He was equally good in print, television and radio. His lack of involvement in this election was a huge void. I will miss him and his obituary on the Australian site this morning, where his blog used to be headlined, made me very sad this morning.

  5. centaur, for the way that Howard played with and divided Australia, I can’t say I’m not glad to see him gone with the extra humiliation and repudiation of losing his seat. He can take Tampa, Siev-X and his beloved dog-whistle with him.

    Rates Analyst – that letter is hilarious. It seems that the Liberals have a few Kroger types in the field still prepared to call black ‘white’ in a desire to continue their culture wars (with all that they have come to entail). Unfortunately they no longer have the high-ground, will be inreasingly isolated, and publicly embarrassed by the flawed logic they hold so dear.

  6. RA

    That is a fantastic letter.

    I suppose the invasion of Iraq was just an honest misunderstanding too? You know, troops were bored sitting at home and we sent them out for a walk and waddyaknow, they wandered into a battle….

  7. A lecture from Jeff Kennett on “character.” How truly sick-making. I’m glad to see the back of Howard and Costello, but there has been no more truly detestable person, both politically and personally, in Australian politics in my lifetime, not even Joh Bjelke-Petersen, not even John Kerr, than Jeff Kennett. When oh when will he just shut up and go away?

  8. Having lied about his intentions regarding a GST, taking the policy to the electorate in 98 was about as reasonable as he could have been.

    But to me “Machiavellian actions by Howard aimed at manipulating a naive electorate” seems an almost perfect description.

    I note that not even the letter-writer can defend AWB.

  9. Kennett was on Newsradio this morning making an a$$ of himself.

    He spent the entire time pretty much refusing to answer any questions.

  10. Indeed, Adam, that was my reaction.

    Jeff Kennett lecturing about the necessity of “compassionate leadership.”

    Utterly nauseating.

  11. I must be honest I thought JWH handled it well, a couple of vague things about better and stronger, but I was impressed. Rudd too. But those idiots who ran around starting the greatest pm / treasurer team in the universe stuff …. it is nasty but someone on our side needs to be minister for making sure these lies don’t stick. Perhaps Stephen Smith could have a portfolio including the portfolio for making sure lies like that get torpedoed.

    Perhaps they should fun a dedicated ‘The Wasted Years’ channel for the ABC to run 24 hours a day.

  12. THR @ 1

    “even though the Government had overseen the 11 best economic years since white settlement”

    Is Kennett implying that the indigenous custodians of our land where/are better economic managers?

  13. A few have already joined the dots between the Lindsay pamphlet and the narrow defeat of Howard in Bennelong. If the ALP get wins in McEwen and Latrobe I think you could conclude Jackie Kelly got them over the line there.

    Any other seats?

    The Lindsay pamphlet was not an isolated incident. It was the last in a long line of attempts to stir up fear of the ALP by aligning them with people’s prejudices.

    The only difference between something like the capricious treatment of Haneef and the Lindsay pamphlet was the level of incompetence shown.

    Its not a question of whether it was “officially” sanctioned by the Liberal Party. It was the Liberal party.

    I’m pleased to see the moderates in the Party are finally starting to act.

  14. I would love to see Mal Brough given a job as he is now unemployed and unelectable in Queensland. Given his background can I suggest that he be now given the plum job of Ambassador to Iraq.

  15. Goodbye to Matt Price – what a bloody awful loss. Matt was smart, funny, insightful, professional and humane. He always played witrh a straight bat and I always admired him for that. Warmest wishes to Sue and the kids. It’s always hard to find a good man in politics and journalism – it just got a whole lot harder. I’ll miss you Matt.

  16. On another matter, ABC radio in Melbourne is suggesting Clare Martin will resign as NT Chief Minister today, possibly to play a role in the new federal government.

  17. BV @ 16

    There is not going to be any mercy for Howard. It has to be the most malevolent photo I have ever seen of a public figure.

  18. Steve (20)

    I think the “the plum job of Ambassador to Iraq” should be offered to John Howard. After all he was partly responsible for ‘liberating’ them and bringing them ‘democracy’. I am sure the relatives of 600,000 dead and 2 million refugees will welcome him with open arms.

  19. Heard Andrew Robb on RN Breakfast this morning. He talked about numerous issues that brought the Coalition down – Howard’s staying too long, the “it’s time” factor – but he avoided mentioning even once the main and biggest issue the party had – WorkChoices.

    If the Liberals are not eyes wide open to that piece of electoral poison, long may they wallow in the pooh of Opposition.

    The new leader and shadow frontbench (whoever they turn out to be) need to completely and very publicly disassociate themselves from the hard right position on IR if they are to become viable again as an electable federal entity.

  20. Polls (mostly) got it right.

    The following compares the final polls with the TPP as of Sumday (53.3%). “N” is the number sampled. “Lower” is the lower limit of the 95% confidence band for that pollster, “Upper” is the upper 95%CL. Error is the amount by which the poll differed from the actual result

    TPP N 95%CL Lower Upper Error
    Morgan f2f 56.5 900 3.1 53.4 59.6 -3.2
    Morgan phone 53.5 2115 2.1 51.4 55.6 -0.2
    Galaxy 52 1200 2.8 49.2 54.8 1.3
    Newspoll 52 2614 1.9 50.1 53.9 1.3
    AGBN 57 1400 2.6 54.4 59.6 -3.7
    Average 53.6 8229 1.2 52.4 54.8 -0.3

    Morgan phone was closest, the all-poll average next. The Morgan f2f was just outside the 95% CL (but 10 days old), the AGBN was well outside it.

    The weighted mean TPP projection from all specific electorate polling was 53.7%, very clearly a good estimate and something to remember for next time.The MimeMSN Passion Poll mid-way through the campaign predicted 53.6%- but this might have been more arse than class.

    All except AGBN picked up the swing in the middle of the week. The trend line built from all polls during the campaign showed a likely TPP of 55.1%, the true TPP was outside the likely error range for a linear projection, a clear indication of a last minute acceleration of mood.

    If a last-minute swing really did occur, the Pre-poll and Postal votes, which would have been cast before any swing set in, may show it and pull the final TPP up a little.

  21. Adam @ 11

    I was no Kennett fan but I must say this for him. When Pauline Hanson was first elected and making headlines, JWH looked like a bunny caught in the headlights. He didn’t know how to respond to her. This was when I started to become seriously dejected about him being our PM, after the guns buy-back and Timor triumphs. Kennett had no hesitation in denouncing her, in his usual blunt way, as stupid and dangerous. Unlike Howard he didn’t worry about what racist/redneck conservative voter he might alienate. For this I’ve always felt a degree of gratitude towards him – oh, and the Beyond Blue involvement is also something he deserves recognition for.

  22. It is obvious that the Iraq Ambassador job should go to the former Foreign Minsiter, Downer. Wouldn’t the Yanks get a kick outta seeing him do that fishnet stockings number in the troops canteen.

  23. Kennett’s comments must be seen through the prism of Victorian Liberal factional politics. The two factions are the “Kennett” faction and the “Costello” faction and they hate each other, as do the two men who give the factions their names.

    This hatred is all the more intense because their differences are based on personality not ideology.

  24. I’d be very interested to know whether Morgan used different sampling techniques or weighting for their final polls.

  25. Jude #30

    Fair points about Kennett. I had forgotten his prompt and clear repudiation of Hansonism. And his BeyondBlue work is commendable.

    He deserves credit for those things.

  26. You’ve left AC Nielsen out of your table.
    I would also like to know how far out they were on primaries too. I think Galaxy had them level on primaries when they 2.5 apart.

  27. Geoff @ 29, what’s AGBN?

    My long-term abbreviation for what has been Nielsen in recent times, but was AGB McNair some years ago.

  28. 16
    BV Says:
    November 26th, 2007 at 9:28 am
    Here’s an image to cut and keep, as brought to us by the Daily Telegraph:

    Maybe he was feeling sad for the people in detintion centres, the drowned SIEV X people, for letting Hicks rot for 5 years, for the torture of Habib, the gaoling and political persecution of Haneef, for AWB….nahhh…as usual he would be feeling sorry for himself.

    The deeds of the Howard government do need to be exposed, not as revenge but as a warning and lesson to the public and the press.

  29. Geoff Lambert @29

    Geoff, I’m not trying to dispute your conclusions, but I simply find it hard to understand how the final Newspoll 52% is “mostly” right. I have a math background, but not stats.

    Newspoll chief was on Skyness this morning smugly bragging about their primary vote prediction, and then saying his combined last two 2PP’s nailed it. Sorry, but that’s not just not the reality of how significantly lower 52% was to the final outcome. We’ll never know how much those final Galaxy and Newpoll 52% impacted on the voters after the media played them up hugely all Friday and Saturday.

    Newspoll chief’s other big boast was about picking up 8% swing in QLD, and he said the Rudd swing is not a landslide.

  30. LETP, Ramsay in the Saturday SMH had this hilarious and enormously telling detail of hundreds of wheelie bins in the PH carpark BEFORE the election. Perhaps the presence and number of bins could be a predictive indicator for future elections. Binwatch?

  31. Also, forgot to ask Geoff Lambert. Why are you avoid using the term “narrowing” rather than “last minute acceleration of mood”? Or have I just completely missed your meaning there?

  32. Rates Analyst @4

    That has been Ramsey’s take on Howard for years, and one of the the very few journalists to express his contempt for the rodent publicly and vociferously. You can’t mark down Ramsey on that score!

    I think this is the best, most succinct summary:

    As for this last election, the one that kills Howard off politically, along with the nastiest, meanest, most miserable, self-absorbed Commonwealth government to blight Australia in living memory, Rudd out-campaigned him, with discipline and immense energy, like Howard has never previously been thrashed in his 33 years in political life

    Wooohoooo! In a nutshell!

  33. Now we are at the stage when the AEC data files is missing information.

    The AEC has recorded the polling postal vote statistics (The file has not been updated since Nov 20.)

    Postal votes and prepoll votes where stopped being issued before the election. (Surely they have this data by now)

    Missing from the AEC polling place returns and data files is the number of prepoll votes issued. The total number of absentee and provisional votes issued.

    There is no reason why a summary of this information can not be provided. (Certainly before the final counts begin later today. All this information is available and is included in the polling place/divisional office returns.

    Sum of AEC and Parties AEC Other Liberal Labor Country Libs National Greens Democrat Total Postal Votes to Date (Incl. GPV)
    ACT 8250 4083 3 3019 1135 – 10 – – 10825
    NSW 165334 50096 1450 46859 54573 19 12337 – – 226859
    NT 2293 1297 5 21 353 613 4 – – 4078
    QLD 128120 42949 720 33688 34815 11 15937 – – 164988
    SA 43689 17268 28 16070 10308 5 10 – – 54389
    TAS 15092 7976 14 4006 3080 1 15 – – 17396
    VIC 187635 56116 919 78053 48536 7 4004 – – 227358
    WA 38941 20031 1267 13492 4050 6 95 – – 55199
    National Total 589354 199816 4406 195208 156850 662 32412 – – 761092

  34. To put up Turnbull now would be only to burn him off too soon.

    They need to burn some losers first so they will recognise the need for a Turnbull and so will support him. Turnbull really needs to learn some political skills and speaking skills. He just waffles too much rubbish.

    The polls in the next few months will probably indicate the LNP at its lowest and maybe reveal what their real base support is. Will be interesting to see the level of rusted on regardless supporters the Liberal party has.

  35. Geoff L said:

    “The weighted mean TPP projection from all specific electorate polling was 53.7%, very clearly a good estimate and something to remember for next time.”

    Good summary. I still think we’ll stress over individual polls 🙂

  36. The Greens in Victoria are looking more and more of losing again.

    With Labor securing three quotas in their own right their only hope is a unlikely swing in postal and absentee votes. The postal votes stats indicate that 33% of postal vote application are unknown.. Of that the greens can expect at best 15%. Problem is that the Liberal Party (The party they have to beat) have the lions share of the postals.. Labors surplus is insufficient to deliver the greens the number of votes they require.

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