Newspoll state swings

Time for a new thread. Here’s a chart showing state-level swings to Labor as recorded by Newspoll throughout the campaign. Note that the most recent result seems to indicate a mild Coalition recovery in Victoria being offset by worsening results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

620 comments on “Newspoll state swings”

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  2. First time poster, after lurking a while.

    Didn’t Grooski say (in 201) that the source of his/her “Galaxy 50:50” rumour was from “talking to ABC radio people this morning”?

    If so, how would ABC radio have that much advance knowledge of a Galaxy poll?

  3. Glen

    Keating was only ever disliked by the outer suburban punters and Lib hacks like yourself. The ones who generally know jack sh.t about politics and barely watch the news. They can hardly remember him now. The elites that the Howard has spent the last ten years deriding are the ones that get to write history and they’re not going to be nice.

  4. JFC Says: at 37,thread earlier today.
    November 22nd, 2007 at 7:38 am

    From a small Coorey piece in the SMH, which may be overlooked on such a newsworthy day.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/a-party-losing-its-youthful-appeal-resorts-to-hy

    How come the article has the dirty scumbag ad by the disgraceful and disgraced Libs running on that article?

    Isn’t there an advertising blackout?

    And what does the SMH think its playing at, positioning the ad on that article?

  5. Chris @ 445: Sure the Lindsaygate thing will score some votes.

    But have a read through today’s cabby panel on Crikey. There’s been a recurring theme for some time in that that Rudd is expected to win, but people are more and more unconvinced that’s actually what they want.

    Hopefully today’s drama seals the deal, but who knows? Can’t hurt to have people galvanised behind the ALP in the fear they make not make it across the line.

  11. In my view there is no way that Kevin Rudd can lose this election.
    He can almost win it in Queensland alone where the numbers may well be neatly reversed.
    The Daily Telegraph has done the sensible thing and backed its readers.
    Note the decision was made after consulting with their readers on their blog.
    It would look a bit silly of David Penberthy to back the retiring John Howard and then have him lose his seat as well as the election in a landslide.
    Obviously Rupert Murdoch, who is becoming more moderate in his old age, would not mind David backing Kevin Rudd.
    I believe Rupert Murdoch may well be of the view that Kevin Rudd will be a considerably better PM now than John Howard.
    This campaign is the worst Coalition campaign I have seen in thirty five years of politics.
    Even if the Galaxy poll shows it to be close it should be discounted. It’s only a single poll. The aggregate of all the polls in the last week would tell a more accurate story.
    Also the betting market has always been right.
    It’s not a question of whether Labor can win, it’s much more a question of by how many seats.

  14. Murdoch likes backing winners, and more to the point, having it known that it was his support which made the difference. IF, and it is a huge if, the Galaxy is 50:50, is it really beyond the bounds of possibility that a few preference flows and such were meddled with? Result: Tele endorses Rudd, Labor wins massively (which they were going to do anyway), and Murdoch can claim the credit.

    Yeah, I know, I’m too cynical by half. But this is KRM we’re talking about.

  15. There’s no way galaxy will be 50-50. At worst it will be 52-48 and the ‘too close to call’ will come from a hocus-pocus analysis of the marginal seats.

  16. This talk about which poll is most accurate is pretty useless.

    The way the analysis will go is this:

    Poll that favours Labor more will be backed by Labor supporters
    Poll that favours the Coalition more will be backed by Coalition supporters
    Poll in the middle will be forgotten by all (and will most likely be correct)

    We’re now so close to the polls will probably overlap on their MOE (like what happened last time), so it’s all pretty irrelevant anyway – one poll will be as good as another…

  19. Richard Jones 457 – Interesting post.
    We all sit here and say that the Libs get a good run by most of the media, and that is true. They do. But theyve also been in power for 11 years. Heads of media are hardly going to go to the Opposition, who keep losing elections, to discuss media opportunities!
    What is happening is that Howard is basically gone. The journo’s know it. If the Coalition had these polls for 6 months running, then we wouldn’t even be disussing the possibility of them losing.
    So, with this in mind, the papers need to position themselves for the next 3 years. You will see a big switch after the election from many typically right-win publications, claiming their ground with Labor.

  22. Swing Lowe @ 462
    You are usually one of the most enjoyable posters in here, but to be honest I can’t fathom what you’re trying to say in this post 462.

  23. Whoever joked about the 50/50 should be shot. Seriously.

    Lefty E, dude, don’t do that. But I accept your apology

    39 hours till booths open…….

  24. By the way – the final polls in isolation dont mean anything. Even with small MoE’s. You need to look at them over a period of time. All 3 polls could suggest Labor 51-49 or even 50-50 and I would still be confident of a Labor win.

  25. At 52:48 Labor wins easily. No party has ever lost with 52% of the TPP. In fact no party has ever lost with 51%.

    This marginal seat targeting stuff is pure Liberal propaganda to give the impression that they are still in the game despite the polls. It is rubbish, just rubbish.

  27. Hemingway,

    Looking back at it – neither can I 🙂

    Um – I guess what I’m saying is that there is no point in arguing which poll is the most accurate, coz partisans (on both sides) will back the poll that favours them.

  28. Ive checked the major betting agencies and there is no change. Labor is low $1.20’s and Coalition early to mid $4.00’s, except Betfair where they are $4.75. Hell, these are fugures we only dreamed about, as with the poll figures.

  32. Yes, as much as Rudd and Howard sound sincere in their earnest assurances that it will be a tight contest, you really have to discount such talk as self-serving. The polls have consistently pointed all year to a Labor win. The betting agencies are pointing in that direction and the “vibe” suggests it will happen. For there now to be an upset Howard victory just defies logic. But nothing is certain, especially in politics, and I would counsel those here getting excited about Howard’s long-awaited political demise to keep the champagne on ice for another 48 hours

  34. Michael,
    Betfair has firmed slightly (for Howard). It’s the site where the punters set the odds, so on the one hand it’s (in a sense) the most accurate up-to-the-minute reflection of what the whole market thinks, but on the other hand it jumps around a lot.
    I don’t think it’s all that significant at this point. It could just be profit-taking, ie people betting against Labor who previously backed them at better odds, and can now lock in a profit.
    I’ll say something if there’s a big shift.

  35. 10 said 52 per cent to 46 (wtf i know, its what he said), while AC has the ALP further ahead.
    This kellygate is terrible for the lnp, they deserve the mother of all canings for this rubbish.

  47. Given that many people now rely on this blog for information I think we should at least make it clear when we are just guesstimating what the polls could be.

  50. News Flash!

    Kevin Rudd will announce another new policy during his victory speech on Saturday night.

    The new policy will reduce Australia,s carbon footprint and ensure that our future is in good hands forever.

    All coalition voters will be granted assisted passage to anywhere they choose, outside Australian territory.

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