Newspoll state swings

Time for a new thread. Here’s a chart showing state-level swings to Labor as recorded by Newspoll throughout the campaign. Note that the most recent result seems to indicate a mild Coalition recovery in Victoria being offset by worsening results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

620 comments on “Newspoll state swings”

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  1. “Note that the most recent result seems to indicate a mild Coalition recovery in Victoria being offset by worsening results elsewhere.”

    No problem there, very happy with that!

  2. Glen Says: “George wouldn’t that mean it would be tough for the Laborites to pick up seats in VIC?”

    and your point is? Do you think this is a prerequisite for winning the election?

  3. someone was asking on the thread which just closed about Hughes. Dana Vale won’t hang on. People there are upset with her and she has promised 1 million to upgrade a local sports oval. You know that they are in trouble when they promise pork to the constituents 😉 ……

  4. Out at the prepoll today, in solid Costello territory (his office is across the road). The greens candidate is there, as is the democrats. You can pick the liberal voters from a mile, old, badly but expensively dressed. Funny enough 1 in 3 are coming from outside the electorate roughly.

  5. Oh and I think Kellygate won’t go down well in Forrest, with a large number of Muslim folk working in the meatworks in Kattaning either.

  6. frank frederic @ 1045 in previous thread-
    ‘betting markets delsert Howard by the day
    Best offer for both parties is at BetFair: 1.24 / 5’

    Such a narrowing of the betting market has always been on as we get very close to the day. The big money will wait until the polls are incontrovertible. Perhaps it started a bit earlier this time in the overall result due to the extra consistency. The delay is especially obvious in the seat by seat betting, where events in the campaign can make a big local difference, whereas the overall market is more predictable and therefore more reflects the poll trend. That is also why the individual seats are – even now – where the value is. (except Lindsay now!) Better get on quick though.

  7. centaur,

    Don’t know if you saw this, you were very quiet on PB yesterday. Peel back a number of threads to “Morgan – Liberal swing in the Perth Marginals” …. post #36. That was my answer to your astrology question of Tuesday night. Cheers 🙂

  8. [Frank Calabrese do you have any proof that Muslims vote for the Liberal Party anyway?]

    But Friends and co-workers probably do.

  9. Swings aren’t uniform NB you could get swings in Menzies, Wanon and Indi and not pick up any of our marginals. Still i think Fran Bailey is in trouble.

  10. I like Galaxy polls in my opinion they are the best. I remeber Kina saying that she was watching AC Neilsen as they were close to the mark in 2004 but for me its Galaxy.

  11. Hey congrats to Grover on the other thread for re-naming the Liberal campaign:


    (Although the alternative spelling is also allowed: “Sham-pain”!)

    So raise your flutes, and toast Dennis’s winning effort to get the Rodent re-elected!

    hmmm, this Sham-paign is as sweet as victory!

  12. # 5 Glen Says: November 22nd, 2007 at 2:26 pm

    George wouldn’t that mean it would be tough for the Laborites to pick up seats in VIC?

    It would if the swing was uniform Glen… but that isn’t going to happen.

    Higgins is going down.

  13. Centaur, I will be handing out how-to-vote cards in Higgins on Saturday. Will be doing what I can to produce a healthy swing away from Costello.

  14. JoM, the Galaxy was the closest on 2PP. ACN was pretty accurate on primaries but overestimate Coalition primary support.

    I’d say both are worth a look in. ACN for Labor primary, Galaxy for 2PP.

  15. 28,

    “Well lets wait and c 4 2nites Galaxy poll b4 we get 2 xcited about a meltdown.”

    I have news for you. The meltdown is already in progress 🙂 🙂 [i.e PAST tense ;-)]

  16. centaur_007 Says: “I hear a mosque will be built where Costellos office is. Can anyone verify this?”

    That’s what it says on the pamphlet I have here – next to it will be a heroine shooting gallery, then a union bosses lounge, and just a little further than that a fairy shop.

  17. Noocat you should be in LaTrobe or Deakin where your help could cause an upset, Higgins will not fall.

    At least im at a Liberal booth in Mt Waverly i wont get spat on like i would should i be at a booth in the western suburbs lol!

  18. “do people really beleive that the alp is going to get more than 50 2pp in qld?”

    Yep – Beattie got 54.5% at the last state election so why not?

  19. I cannot wait to ask some questions of the liberal volunteers on Saturday.

    -“Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”

    -“Is this a real one or is it faked?”

  20. Edward StJohn Says: “Well lets wait and c 4 2nites Galaxy poll b4 we get 2 xcited about a meltdown.”

    so we’re finally letting go of any change of narrowing are we?

  21. how many times have they got more than 50% 2pp in queensland, once I think since ww2. it will still swing big, but i doubt they’d get more than 50%. I hope im wrong!

  22. 2GB and 2UE talkbacks both spinning the race-hategate and NPC appearance furiously. Anyone pro-Lib allowed to ramble on whilst anyone anti gets short shrift.

    Heavy criticism of the ALP’s Voting Card mailout as a “dirty trick”.

  23. Re Galaxy at the last election

    Yeah, they were the closest last election on 2pp but only because in the lottery of where a poll falls within the MOE they happened to land closest to the actual result. They’ve been dining out on it ever since but the fact that they did so is of absolutely no significance. All the other polls bar Newspoll with their dodgy formula got the 2pp within their MOE.

  24. What Galaxy result would make the Liberal Party hopeful? 52/48 or below? Or will you be happy with 53/47?

    I have a feeling we’ll probably get a 53/47… but I won’t be surprised with one point either way. No chance of a 55/45.

    I’m with Glen on one point, I think people will be surprised on the night just how close it is.

  25. Watched bits and pieces of the PM’s Press Club address (I’ll watch the whole thing later). There’s no one in politcs better at fielding questions from pestilent hacks than the PM. At one point one smug little specimen noted the presence of Mr Howard’s grandson at the Liberal launch and then wondered whether he worried about future generations and the effect climate change would have on Angus’ generation. The PM responded by saying that Angus spoke to him often about greenhouse gases.

    Brought the house down. The grub who’d asked the question – Ben Packham – flopped into his chair and looked very sulky.

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