Newspoll state swings

Time for a new thread. Here’s a chart showing state-level swings to Labor as recorded by Newspoll throughout the campaign. Note that the most recent result seems to indicate a mild Coalition recovery in Victoria being offset by worsening results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

620 comments on “Newspoll state swings”

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  1. Swings in Vic and NSW are underestimated by Newspoll, as they always give 61% of minor prefs to Labor. With Greens on 8% in NSW and 9% in Vic, add a point to Labor’s 2PP in those states. However, in Qld, where Greens only have 3%, subtract a point.

  2. LTEP AC Neilsen primary

    Coalition = 43%

    Labor = 47%

    I’m hoping the ALP primary vote is biggest in safe Labor, Liberal seats

  3. Caroline It Is OVERington has a new blog up.

    I haven’t read but I get the gist from the headline and thought I show her my support – below

    Little value in a Priceless election

    “I totally agree with you Caroline. What was really needed was more dirt, sleaze, titillation and mindless fluff. And you provided just that.

    I nominate you as the outstanding troll of the campaign, sweetie. You indeed made my day every time you post. Love your work. Keep it up and don’t let those naysayers put you off your important contributions to the national debate.

    I have to make one final qualification however and that is the immense passion evoked over the “phamphletgate affair” which is vying for top spot against your “shag for story gate”.

  4. -“Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”

    -“Is the ‘Liberal Party’ listed on this card a real organisation or a made-up one like the ‘Islamic Australia Federation’?””

  5. Steven Kaye @ 50, yes there will be a new question in the next poll asking:

    “Who do you think is better managed at fielding questions from pestilent hacks?”

    John Howard will get 55% of the vote and go on to win the election! (snort, snort, snoooooort)

  6. Glen I haven’t seen anyone getting spat on before, but I did see an Asian man go ape at the liberals this morning. We had to calm him down, it was quite a sight.
    Got to go back for more sultanas…back to booth.
    See you all 2nite.
    George I really enjoyed our lunch and I’m looking forward to our celebratory drink/dinner/banquet after

  7. “Noocat you should be in LaTrobe or Deakin where your help could cause an upset, Higgins will not fall.”

    Well, someone has to be there. We can’t let Costello have a free run.

  8. I was listening to ABC radio earlier and they took a crew out to Lindsay to monitor reaction on the street. It was overwhelmingly negative, with a couple of lib voters saying they’d reconsider their vote. One guy said that people out west were tired of being taken for fools…

    I personally think that the affair (coupled with all the other lib stuff ups) is good news for Labor in those small L Liberal seats they’re after – wentworth, northsydney etc – the more politically attuned seats where questions of ethics might get a bigger run. It could make for some unexpected results on Sat night.

  9. -”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”

    -”Are the ‘tax cuts’ you mention in your flyers really planned or are they like the St Mary’s Mosque?””

  10. [Well not at our booth its a Tory stronghold in the seat :)]

    Same with the booth I’ll be working at (Highbury South, in Sturt).

    But I just figure that means there’s more voters to switch. 😛

  11. Glen Says:”Der Krieg ist fast verloren Kollegen, aber es gibt immer noch Hoffnung, dass wir ziehen Sie es aus.”

    Not a chance Glen – it’s lost and you know it.

  12. Also Glen

    Du sagst es so ist, natuerlich is es so.

    Wir koennen zusammen Deutsch sprechen, und die andere koennen uns nicht verstehen.

    But we should speak English …

  13. George nicht unbedingt wir gewinnen können, wird es hart, und es wird eng, aber Sie wissen nie, Wenk Mai zur Rettung kommen, nachdem alle.

  14. -”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”

    -”Was the reaction of the candidate for [seat x] to ‘laugh’ when they first saw the Kelly Gang’s flyer? Because that was apparently the reaction she received when she showed it around.”

  15. I did a bit of letterboxing over the weekend. The woman at the ALP campaign HQ in Deakin said that people had been coming in asking if they could help – never helped the ALP before but Kevin Andrews just made them feel they had to do something. Will this latest situation drive more this way?

  16. Andrew Robb Press Release:

    “I find it offensive that the senior Liberals have been smeared in this way. If we had done this, you can bet your bottom dollar that it would have been produced on proper printing stock with properly produced photos and logos and the written copy would have been clever and cunning.

    To associate the Liberal HQ in any way or fashion to this amateur attempt is offensive in the extreme and any and all of you (you know who you are) should apologise and not just say sorry.”

  17. Glen Says: “George nicht unbedingt wir gewinnen können, wird es hart, und es wird eng, aber Sie wissen nie, Wenk Mai zur Rettung kommen, nachdem alle.”

    You’ve lost me, somthing about winning is hard? But it’s close? …You’re close to being hard?

  18. Don’t worry the only things ill be saying on election night may be in German should we lose, i am sure you’ll find this amusing enough.

    Zumindest haben wir den Bürgermeister von Brisbane, wenn wir verlieren.

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