D-day minus 2

• The Australian has published the latest cumulative Newspoll with state-by-state breakdowns. Most interesting of the state-level results is a correction following a mid-campaign Labor plunge in New South Wales.

• Marcus Priest of the Financial Review on the dispute over George Newhouse’s eligibility in Wentworth (UPDATE: A learned refutation of what follows from Grace Pettigrew in comments):

One option for Turnbull to avoid a new election would be to argue that rather than go back to the ballot box there should be – according to an ancient common law rule – a recount that excludes the disqualified candidate. The High Court has not been willing to do this in other successful challenges but left the door slightly open in the (Jackie) Kelly case, and it has occurred in England before. For this to occur it would require Turnbull to put Wentworth voters “on notice” before the poll that Newhouse was ineligible.

• Having raised genuine concerns about Newhouse, the Coalition broadened the attack to 12 other candidates who websites indicated were still on the public payroll (“based on investigative public records searches”, as Andrew Robb would have it): Sharon Thiel (Kalgoorlie), Mark Reynolds (Tangney), Tony Zappia (Makin), Belinda Neal (Robertson), Yvette D’Ath (Petrie), Ross Daniels (Ryan), Garry Parr (Hinkler) and Shayne Neumann (Blair), Rob Mitchell (McEwen), Alan Neilan (Kennedy), Mark Buttigieg (Cook) and Peter Conway (ACT Senate). Most seem to have had little trouble refuting the claims, Reynolds saying his piece in comments on this site.

• More and worse late-campaign desperation from Lindsay, where Labor operatives have photographed outgoing member Jackie Kelly’s husband Gary Clark and party state executive member Jeff Egan distributing a bogus pamphlet, purportedly from Muslim extremists praising Labor’s support for the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.

• Meanwhile, Michael Bachelard of The Age reports being contacted by a “Liberal campaign source” spreading smears about Rodney Cocks, Labor’s candidate for the finely placed outer Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that the Liberals are so alarmed about their outer Brisbane seat of Forde, which outgoing member Kay Elson won by 13.0 per cent in 2004, they have “abandoned their candidate” and told the local to get behind Nationals candidate Hajnal Ban, who has “won traction with voters”. At the end of October, Tony Wright of The Age wrote that Liberal polling from the seat was “whispered to have sent a bolt of fear through the party”.

• A study of Australian voting patterns by the Australian National University’s Andrew Leigh and Oxford University’s Amy King finds that “female candidates in major parties tend to get 1.5% fewer votes than their male colleagues, all other things being equal”.

• Nick Xenophon’s seemingly effortless journey to the Senate has been rudely interrupted by Ann Bressington, the unanticipated victor of a second No Pokies seat at last year’s state election. According to John Wiseman of The Australian, Bressington claims Xenophon “guaranteed that her entry into politics would cost her nothing, only to tell her after she was elected he wanted $50,000”. She has also criticised him for abandoning state parliament just after he became eligible for the pension granted upon 10 years’ service.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “D-day minus 2”

Comments Page 18 of 23
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  1. Blather, blather.

    Good on the AP journo Q.

    JH: I took responsibility for pamphlet (However if they had not been caught, wink, wink).

  6. Tassie Pulp Mill. Throwing of same stuff at AGM. Suspicious, environment, nuclear, etc conscious shareholders.

    Nick X. Still hurt. Pretty awful distraction at this time. Kris Hanna speaks out for Nick. Assoc Prof, Politics, Flinders, Haydon Manning thinks damage will be limited.

  9. OH CRAP!

    Howard just used the word SORRY in the process of an APOLOGY. Does that mean he meant it? Or because he used the word SORRY is that not an apology, so he couldn’t care less that interest rates are higher?

    He is such a complicated person.

  11. Laugh it up Labor trolls, I like many of my friends here on the North Coast will be voting informal in the Lower House and Green in the Senate. It is the only way to ensure accountability.

  15. Laugh it up Labor trolls, I like many of my friends here on the North Coast will be voting informal in the Lower House and Green in the Senate. It is the only way to ensure accountability.

    Imaginary friends aren’t on the electoral roll.

  18. Despite the stcked room there was no (audible) reaction to Howard reiterating that interest rates under Labor will always be higher blah blah.

    Socrates @ 823, Clarke may have to ditch his prepared script and re-write tonight’s skit. A wealth of material to draw from, also for Mike Carlton’s Friday News Review.

  22. Thaddeus Says: “Laugh it up Labor trolls, I like many of my friends here on the North Coast will be voting informal in the Lower House and Green in the Senate. It is the only way to ensure accountability.”

    Shove it bigot Liberal stooge

  28. Howard wants to keep the best of the values of the old australia and also says that he doesn’t think that this election has people being angry with him.

    Sheeessshhh ……. he hasn’t been to this house …. I will show him angry if he shows up here

  30. # 861 Thaddeus Says: November 22nd, 2007 at 1:26 pm

    Laugh it up Labor trolls, I like many of my friends here on the North Coast will be voting informal in the Lower House and Green in the Senate. It is the only way to ensure accountability.

    Good on ya… just as long as you’re not votin for the libs.

  31. “We believe in work to welfare, Mr Speaker”

    Anti-memory-senility-dominated Liberals will be a disaster for Australia’s 1.1 trillion dollar economy.

  32. Alex,
    its not worth a long debate. I know you didn’t say red ragger. I quoted you directly. I’m trying to point out that he is hardly, to use your term a “class warrior.”
    I see what you are saying – i just think it’s slightly coloured. Mayne is not anti-business. If anything, I would say he is a supporter of corporate democracy – sometghing you can not, by definition, be without tacitly approving of capitalism. Hence my taking issue with your language.

    Now back to watching Howard melting like the wicked witch.

  38. And the terrorist organisation the Ku Klux Klan uses a perverted form of Christianity to attack blacks.

    But apparently it is OK for members of the Australian military to dress as members of the KKK. That is just called “letting off steam”.

  39. Something coming up about Bernie Banton, Greg Combet imminent. Not sure what exactly. Will be a Press Conference, soon. Will have to wait on breaking news. Program ends.

  40. the libs are in trouble with the lindsay affair , now being sent off to federal police,and it’s inching up the liberal tree and if the lib’s lose the election there will be no howard to protect kelly and her gang from being fully prosecuted

  43. [Something coming up about Bernie Banton, Greg Combet imminent. Not sure what exactly. Will be a Press Conference, soon. Will have to wait on breaking news. Program ends.]

    It is possible he passed away 😐

  49. [Something coming up about Bernie Banton, Greg Combet imminent. Not sure what exactly. Will be a Press Conference, soon. Will have to wait on breaking news. Program ends.]

    He will asnnounce this.

    [JAMES Hardie has agreed a settlement of terminally ill asbestos campaigner Bernie Banton’s claim for damages.

    Mr Banton, 61, who is suffering an asbestos-related cancer, sued James Hardie subsidiary Amaca in the Dust Diseases Tribunal.

    His lawyer, Jack Rush QC, told the tribunal today the parties had settled and the terms would be announced this afternoon.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22802570-12377,00.html

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