D-day minus 2

• The Australian has published the latest cumulative Newspoll with state-by-state breakdowns. Most interesting of the state-level results is a correction following a mid-campaign Labor plunge in New South Wales.

• Marcus Priest of the Financial Review on the dispute over George Newhouse’s eligibility in Wentworth (UPDATE: A learned refutation of what follows from Grace Pettigrew in comments):

One option for Turnbull to avoid a new election would be to argue that rather than go back to the ballot box there should be – according to an ancient common law rule – a recount that excludes the disqualified candidate. The High Court has not been willing to do this in other successful challenges but left the door slightly open in the (Jackie) Kelly case, and it has occurred in England before. For this to occur it would require Turnbull to put Wentworth voters “on notice” before the poll that Newhouse was ineligible.

• Having raised genuine concerns about Newhouse, the Coalition broadened the attack to 12 other candidates who websites indicated were still on the public payroll (“based on investigative public records searches”, as Andrew Robb would have it): Sharon Thiel (Kalgoorlie), Mark Reynolds (Tangney), Tony Zappia (Makin), Belinda Neal (Robertson), Yvette D’Ath (Petrie), Ross Daniels (Ryan), Garry Parr (Hinkler) and Shayne Neumann (Blair), Rob Mitchell (McEwen), Alan Neilan (Kennedy), Mark Buttigieg (Cook) and Peter Conway (ACT Senate). Most seem to have had little trouble refuting the claims, Reynolds saying his piece in comments on this site.

• More and worse late-campaign desperation from Lindsay, where Labor operatives have photographed outgoing member Jackie Kelly’s husband Gary Clark and party state executive member Jeff Egan distributing a bogus pamphlet, purportedly from Muslim extremists praising Labor’s support for the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.

• Meanwhile, Michael Bachelard of The Age reports being contacted by a “Liberal campaign source” spreading smears about Rodney Cocks, Labor’s candidate for the finely placed outer Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that the Liberals are so alarmed about their outer Brisbane seat of Forde, which outgoing member Kay Elson won by 13.0 per cent in 2004, they have “abandoned their candidate” and told the local to get behind Nationals candidate Hajnal Ban, who has “won traction with voters”. At the end of October, Tony Wright of The Age wrote that Liberal polling from the seat was “whispered to have sent a bolt of fear through the party”.

• A study of Australian voting patterns by the Australian National University’s Andrew Leigh and Oxford University’s Amy King finds that “female candidates in major parties tend to get 1.5% fewer votes than their male colleagues, all other things being equal”.

• Nick Xenophon’s seemingly effortless journey to the Senate has been rudely interrupted by Ann Bressington, the unanticipated victor of a second No Pokies seat at last year’s state election. According to John Wiseman of The Australian, Bressington claims Xenophon “guaranteed that her entry into politics would cost her nothing, only to tell her after she was elected he wanted $50,000”. She has also criticised him for abandoning state parliament just after he became eligible for the pension granted upon 10 years’ service.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “D-day minus 2”

Comments Page 1 of 23
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  1. The Libs are toast. The scandal in Lindsay will completely overshadow Howard’s day at the press club. If he gets questioned on it at the press club you’ll know that the journos have decided to go for the kill.

    How typical of the Liberal party to go the dog whistle one more time.

  2. This grubby episode in Lindsay typifies with chilling precision the exact nature of Howard’s ‘legacy’.

    Some good stuff in the Fairfax media for a change: one article on Lindsay –

    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/21/1195321871812.html

    And PJK is back in the house:

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/21/1195321864420.html

    It’s not the latter’s funniest piece, but I did get a chuckle when he called Ruddock a ‘psalm singer’…

  3. This was no dog whistle. This was a klaxon.

    On the Senate thread, I’ve singled out some small ‘l’ liberal Liberal seats that I think will now be worth watching, thanks to this latest piece of filthiness…

    Deakin
    Boothby
    Sturt
    Higgins
    Goldstein
    North Sydney
    Ryan.

    Too dumb to run a decent campaign. Too dumb to run a country.

  8. Yep, this is the landslide figure

    Nothing seems to have gone forward for the Libs, it all appears to have gone backwards, must have been the interest rate rise

  10. Wow, the LNP has even “subverted” Firefox, sneaky little popup ad at the SMH that wasn’t eliminated by said Firefox!

    Don’t think it’ll do them much good when one considers the way online SMH readers vote on the in-house polls.

  11. From the Sheridan article:

    “The Liberals will need both their small-l liberal and their moderately conservative wings. Abbott represents the latter.”

    Um… not where I stand sorry Mr Sheridan. Tony Abbot, to me, appears to be about as far right as you can go. If they put up Tony Abbot I would definately never even consider voting for them.

  13. The Lindsay business may not swing many votes in itself, but it will stop dead the possibility of the coalition getting a successful message out over the last two days. All the momentum, all the vibe, is with Labor with no counter force. Could be an uber-rout.

  14. Peter Kemp @10: “Wow, the LNP has even “subverted” Firefox, sneaky little popup ad at the SMH that wasn’t eliminated by said Firefox!”

    You need the NoScript extension for Firefox. It lets you block scripts by domain and has proven to be better than Adblock. http://noscript.net/

  15. Julie Says:
    November 22nd, 2007 at 6:47 am

    Re 6,

    JFC Says:

    November 22nd, 2007 at 6:32 am
    ‘Liberal future lies in Tony Abbott’s ideas’ – Greg Sheridan

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22798709-7583,00.html

    Sheridan is an idiot. Abbot is the man who tried to reopen the abortion debate in Australia.

    If the Liberals want to be anything in the future they need to get back to the center fast. Rudd is marginalizing the extreme right and the extreme left.

  19. JACKIE KELLY ON A.M. MAKING OUT THE FAKED MUSLIM MATERIAL TO BE A “CHASER STYLE PRANK” AND THAT AN ALP “GOON SQUAD LED BY UNIONISTS” CHASED DOWN THE PERPETRATORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  20. JACKIE KELLY ON A.M. MAKING THIS OUT TO BE A “CHASER STYLE PRANK” AND THAT AN ALP “GOON SQUAD LED BY UNIONISTS” CHASED DOWN THE PERPETRATORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  24. 21,

    Apparently she is. I am not watching (kids have the TV for cartoons in the mornings) it but over on OzForums, someone said Laurie Oakes ripped into her and said he is glad she is retiring …..

  25. Morning! Wake up to the sound of Rodent being grilled over the fake leaflets.

    The Libs are going down in a more and more undignified fashion 🙂

  26. Her AM interview is going to be repeated on ABC Local Radio at 8am – if you can tune in and have a listen. It’s well worth it, including her question “WHERE IS THIS INTERVIEW GOING?!”

  27. someone said Laurie Oakes ripped into her and said he is glad she is retiring

    Yep, Laurie tore her a new one after her appearance on the Today show.

  29. the dirty libs,scum,arsewipes whatever

    GET THIS SCUM OUT OF OUR LIVES FOREVER

    HEY JACKIE WHAT ABOUT THE “PARTIES” (PHOTOS AND VIDEO)

    REVENGE IS VERY SWEET

    SLIMEBUCKETS ONE AND ALL

  31. Uhrlman really gave Jackie Kelly a bollocking on RN. Why on earth did she agree to be interviewed. Plenty of ammo for the journos at the National Press Club today!

  37. Bronwyn Bishop in a letter to constituents –

    “Our youth have never experienced a socialist government with its continuous barrage of laws, rules and regulations, the never-ending interference of government and unions in our lives and the soul-destroying unemployment as our living standard drops.”

    Then this: “Have you ever wondered how so many members of the Labor Party have become very rich whilst in government, while workers become poorer? How do they become multi-millionaires.”

    From a small Coorey piece in the SMH, which may be overlooked on such a newsworthy day.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/a-party-losing-its-youthful-appeal-resorts-to-hysteria/2007/11/21/1195321867182.html

  38. Just heard Jackie on Today in SA. My question, how the hell did voters elect this clown for 4 terms!

    Says she didn’t know anything about this – bullcrap.

  39. Is RadioNational the same thing as the ABC (702 in Sydney)? If not, what is the frequency to catch the repeat at 8pm? (Sydney please)

    thanks 🙂

  41. 702AM is local radio (and she will be on in all her “Prankish” glory at 8). Radio National is 526AM or something.

    Jackie Kelly, you jocker, you!

  42. Happy Revolutionary @ 2, thanks for the link to PJK article, a good read. He says it all, who could trust the Rat Pack after all the lies they have told, and now they expect us to believe ‘no more work choices’, no nuclear power etc. If the masses still vote for them, they deserve everything they get.

  43. 38, thanks 🙂 ….. I knew that frequency but was not familiar with the phrase “Radio National” so didn’t realize it was the same thing 🙂

  45. VoterBoy (#3) I agree with HR (#5) that the Lindsay scandal will not sway small-‘l’ votes – those that were going to be swayed are already gone. In relation to your list of seats to watch, I think you should add Kooyong.

  48. Howard & Co should be put on trial for this disgusting race / hate crime.
    For long, fear mongering and racist / hate stirring are common practice of Liberal / National.
    Unfortunate for Howard, this time he has been caught pants-down.

  50. Well the Lindsay story has top billing on news.com.au. I think trying to link it into a ‘chaser’ style prank is pathetic. I mean cop some frikkin responsibility. How can anyone vote for these people???

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