Newspoll marginal seats poll

Violent but happily short-lived illness has prevented more timely comment on today’s Newspoll survey of marginal seats in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, repeating the exercise of a fortnight ago. You can view a scanned copy of The Australian’s table here. The previous survey showed Labor on track to gain 24 seats assuming a status quo result elsewhere. This one has Labor’s lead in the New South Wales marginals widening from to 53-47 from 51-49, which seemed a little modest at the time. If uniform, that would add Dobell, Page, Paterson and Cowper to the existing haul of Parramatta, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro and Bennelong, which along with Dobell constituted the six NSW seats surveyed. In Victoria the lead has widened from 52-48 to 53-47, enough to add non-surveyed Gippsland to Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite and La Trobe (which were surveyed) and McEwen (which wasn’t). The lead in Queensland has narrowed from 54-46 to 53-47, which shifts Bowman back to the Coalition column while leaving Labor with the four surveyed seats of Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert along with non-surveyed Longman, Petrie and Flynn. In South Australia the lead increases from 54-46 to 56-44, adding non-surveyed Sturt to the four surveyed seats, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin and Boothby (which might be thought to be dragging down the average). That points to an overall gain of 29 seats: Mount Everest with 13 to spare.

The Channel Nine News tells us tomorrow’s Galaxy poll will point to 10 Labor gains in New South Wales, suggesting a swing of 6 to 7 per cent; three seats in South Australia, which could mean anything from 1 per cent to 5 per cent; three seats in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, meaning anything over 3 per cent; two seats in Queensland, meaning 3 per cent to 5 per cent; no change in Victoria, meaning a swing of less than 5 per cent, and no change in Western Australia, meaning zero or 1 per cent. Queensland is the surprise here; interestingly, the last Galaxy marginals poll also pointed to a disappointing result for Labor in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

633 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats poll”

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  1. The real sick feeling that will pervade the Liberal party is that they could have possibly stayed in power for as long as the Global/China boom lasted. All they had to do was be a half decent government stay out of trouble and, no funny business.

    But Howard being the person that he is could not keep his ego or malice under control and, had to chase after his ideological goals and seek to ensure perpetual LNP government by politicising every public service and agency, trashing the democratic processes of Parliament and so on. AND of course power corrupts which is followed by lack of accountability, more outrageous acts [AWB, Hicks etc}…and so on.

    The LNP could have stayed in power another 10 years if they just behaved themselves. If Labor win [and the are near certainties] Howard may be responsible for the destruction of his party. AND his gutless yes-men.

  3. Yes to prove Steven’s point look at the index to the book and then look up journalists listed there and there published comments about Latham.

    Many,many journalists were pi*sed about Latham’s comments and decided on payback by labelling him as mad.

  5. Can you imagine the MSM slowly but surely backing a Rudd win but then on the night of November 24th Labor loses? You know they want Howard to win but think Labor will. What do they do then? Grovel and say “Sorry John we wanted you all along but the polls were saying you’d lose”. Interesting.

  6. Firstly, shouldn’t someone have told me months ago I was supposed to dress for blogging?

    Secondly GO NICOLE

    Thirdly this time next week it will be over, I’ll be drunk happy or drunk shattered … the whole people don’t have baseball bats for Howard is very very stupid, we had them in 96 and every time since. Just the stupid media is so used to them it doesn’t spot them. Unless Howard wins, keating will have a legacy, Howard will not.

  7. [The real sick feeling that will pervade the Liberal party is that they could have possibly stayed in power for as long as the Global/China boom lasted. All they had to do was be a half decent government stay out of trouble and, no funny business.]

    All they had to do was spend billions building desalination plants in every capital and major city.

    Build solar thermal plants nearly everywhere.

    If they went to this election with those two achievements in the bank, then Labor wouldn’t of stood a chance.

    Instead all they did was reap a heap of bracket creep every non-election year, then hand half back as tax cuts in election years.

    It worked for 3 elections, but it won’t work for 4.

  9. ESJ and SK are perfectly correct. If Rudd somehow contrived to lose this election from here, he would not survive very long as leader, certainly not until 2010, and I’m sure he knows that. I don’t know who the next leader would be, but it wouldn’t be Gillard: no-one from the left can be leader. I doubt Shorten could walk into the leadership in his first term. My choice would be Tony Burke. HOWEVER, this is all totally academic, because there is no conceivable way Labor will lose from this position. The polls differ only on whether Labor will have a comfortable win or a spectacular triumph, and they seem at present to be sliding from the former to the latter.

  11. I want to bring something else up, psephologically speaking – the existence of a de-facto “Second Coalition” – this one between Labor and the Greens. What with the very explicit trading of preferences in this electoral cycle, they’ve come closer to collaborating than in any previous election (to my knowledge).

    I am beginning to suspect that this may be a long term trend. The Greens poll very highly in certain urban areas (such as Wentworth), and having them onside implicitly in this election may evolve into something more explicit in the next election. Given that there is a fair chance that the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate this time around, I reckon it will pretty quickly become obvious to both parties that their best chance for holding power in the long term will be to collaborate. It may not look anything like the LNP coalition (in fact it probably won’t), but it could well give the Greens the first chance to become a party of Government, while at the same time shoring up the left-of-center vote for a newly “conservative” Labor party. That could be a dramatic – and yet very stable – reallignment of politics in Australia, particularly if the Liberals do take a real hiding next week.

    Thoughts?

  13. Edward and Steven,

    To win a battle you need to understand your enemy. If you guys are banking on Latham’s views to help you understand Labor, once again, all I can say is no wonder you are losing.

  14. There is nothing better like a 57/43 Mortgage belt poll to bring the discussion back to reality. Where have all the tories gone?

  16. Steven Kaye says: “Because pollsters try as hard as possible to bully respondents into declaring a definite voting intention.”

    Yeah, sure. Whatever delusion you need to feed your prejudices. So, these people being bullied over the phone in a voluntary, anonymous survey all say they will vote for Labor when they really intend to vote for the coalition.

    Do you think that these survey companies would want to sacrifice their credibility with the business community so that they can just get a sexy headline for tomorrow’s newspaper?

  17. [The polls differ only on whether Labor will have a comfortable win or a spectacular triumph, and they seem at present to be sliding from the former to the latter.]

    The headlines in the Sunday papers will ruin the coalitions campaigning for the next 2 or 3 days, which would be amplified by a bad Newspoll on Mon/Tues.

    There is a pretty easy narrative for the journalists to write about now “Howard runs out of time.”

  21. [ If Rudd somehow contrived to lose this election from here, he would not survive very long as leader ]

    Adam,

    If Rudd loses and Labor doesn’t give him another chance you might as well prepare for another 20 years in Opposition. He’s the best you’ve had for ages and the best you’re likely to have.

  23. ShowsOn @ 460.

    Unfortunately I have the same view – I think he’ll probably with with a TPP of around 51.5%.

    Will be interested to see how the letters to female voters addressed under his wife’s names impact that though. Would be ironic if the move to shore up his current strength ends up being the thing that pushes Mia over the line.

    Some women may act quite negatively to an MP using his wife’s name to campaign on his behalf.

  25. Colin @ 412

    Youmisunderstand the system. They have a system similar that you describe in SA only. The reasons that the coalition can win on 49% is that there are more safe ALP seats.It can work both ways,in 1990 the libs had over 50% but stilll lost and at state levelit can get quite extreme even with fair boundaries – in 1989 the libs had 53% in SA but still lost and in NSW the libs need well over 50% to win.

    Redistributions don’t all happen at once, they roll state by state on a series of demographic and enrolment triggers, or at 7 year intervals max(I think, correct me if I am wrong).

    Between 2004 and 07 there were redisrtributions in QLD and NSW etc. Vic willhave one in the next term because of the 7 year rule – they also don’t redistributions in election years.

  26. mad cow @ 468 –

    That’s a tough one. It would have to happen with the explicit support of Labor – rather in the same way the Liberals and Nationals (generally) refuse to engage in 3-way contests. Given that some inner-city districts are now regularly polling in the high 20s for the Greens, it would probably be one of those areas.

    But this could simply be a deal to trade in Greens lower-house preferences for Labor upper-house preferences. Which is pretty much the situation on the ground this time around. Senators can be in Cabinet – and I don’t know that it’s against Westminster conventions to have a minister which has no lower-house representation.

    The parties would need to work together a while in the Senate, and come to trust one another, before anything like that could happen. Possibly 2010. But perhaps it’ll wait until 2013. Still, it seems to me to be the long term trend for left-of-center politics in Australia.

  27. Mako – the Greens will have three years to position themselves for growth, get some additional strong candidates, whilst the LNP try to reinvent themselves.

  28. George, the greens will have the balance of power in the senate, Unlike the current situation where the coalition have had nothing to stop them abusing the parliament.

  29. And Adam, if you really don’t know who Missy Higgins is, you are a tragic nerd!!

    And that is coming from an over 40 in Deakin!!

  31. [ShowsOn @ 460.

    Unfortunately I have the same view – I think he’ll probably with with a TPP of around 51.5%.

    Will be interested to see how the letters to female voters addressed under his wife’s names impact that though. Would be ironic if the move to shore up his current strength ends up being the thing that pushes Mia over the line.

    Some women may act quite negatively to an MP using his wife’s name to campaign on his behalf.]

    Yep I agree. But if a landslide is on, then one of Boothby or Sturt will fall. Mia is a better candidate than Cornes, but she’s in the seat with the bigger margin.

    Whatever happens, Handshin will end up in federal parliament. It was her choice to go for Sturt because she grew up in the electorate. I believe she was offered Adelaide in 2004 but declined it.

  33. kina @ 477

    Excellent point. The Greens need to prove themselves as a party which can govern responsibly before they can expect any party (or the electorate) to hand them any more power. It looks like they’re getting their chance to reach for the brass ring in 2007. I do hope that they make the most of it. Because if they stuff it up, I don’t know that they’ll get another chance. (Ghosts of the Democrats should serve as a warning there.)

  34. From todays EMRS results in the examiner newspaper:

    “BASS incumbent Michael Ferguson is the only Liberal candidate who appears likely to come close to winning a seat at Saturday’s federal election.
    There are just just four points between him and Labor candidate Jodie Campbell on a two-party preferred result – 52 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for Liberal.”

  36. Labor under Rudd has been ruthless and determined in ridding itself of troublemakers, blowhards and fools.

    The Liberals under Howard have cultivated, nutured and rewarded people in that category as part of Howard’s stragedy to keep in control and avoid challenge.

    The political price of this folly is now surfacing through the ineptitude and crass idiocy of some of its high flyers, Abbott, Downer, Coonan, Bishop, Pyne, Costello, Andrews, Brough and the king of the twits, Vaille (ok Vaille is an honourary twit, being a Nat).

    All the intelligent, decent people in the Liberal camp, such as Williams and Georgiou, have either left in disgust or have emasculated by Howard.

    No amount of trolling, abuse and feigned indignation can save the Liberals from the natural consequence of their past cowardice and dissembling.

  37. #461 Marko, it’s an interesting idea, although Labor doesn’t actually need the Greens at the moment so it won’t happen for a couple of years yet.

    On the other hand, I was talking to a member of the Irish Greens recently. (You’ll note that a lot of conservatives in Australia point to the Irish election as proof that a supposed tory party – which Ireland’s ruling Fianna Fail is not exactly – as proof that Howard could do a double somersault with pike and win this election.) I had a go at her for the Greens going into coalition with Fianna Fail in the recent Irish elections, when they would more naturally coalesce with the Irish Labour Party, which engulfed the Democratic Left about eight years ago and is currently in coalition with Fine Gael (very convoluted, them Irish).

    She said that the Greens just had to be pragmatic, despite philosophical differences, to get something done for the environment. I still think the main diff is that the Irish govt needed the Greens, while the ALP doesn’t.

  38. Rudd will be a hard task master if he wins.

    ….if Labor wins government at Saturday’s …

    Mr Rudd said that Christmas Day and Boxing Day would be the only holidays for a Labor cabinet this year as they began putting policies into action, and that he would use the Lodge in Canberra as the prime ministerial home.

    He said he wanted to be known as “an education prime minister”, someone who fundamentally transformed education.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/calamity-john-howard-faces-massive-defeat/2007/11/17/1194767024647.html?page=2

  40. Paul k, I’ve said all I’m saying about that. Labor will win so the question won’t arise. This time next week Rudd will be PM-elect, Howard will have been bruced and Costello will be wondering whether the Opposition leadership is worth having. My suspicion is that he will decide it’s not and bail out, leaving the field to Turnbull (if he holds his seat) or Abbott (if he doesn’t).

  42. marktwain @ 487

    It’s looking very likely that Labor will need the Greens in the Senate. Of course, if we get a hung Senate, there may be a double disillusion in 2008…

  43. 441
    Edward StJohn Says:
    Well see next Saturday night of course who has been blogging naked so to speak.

    We sure will. Possibly by about 7:30 pm

  45. “#336
    ND Says:

    LaborVotes, Hawkey won in 1990 with less than 50% of the 2PP….”

    And this confirms exactly what I have been saying, you can’t win from the incumbents on a small TPP lead.

    Have a look back to every change in government in the federal arena since WW2.

    Not ONCE has the government changed with a small TPP change, it has always come with a landslide win!

    Labor needs 52% of the TPP to have a chance. In my view this is a statistical FACT… don’t believe it?? Get educated on the subject:

    http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/

    Not ONCE in the last 50 YEARS has the government changed hands between parties without at least a 52%+ result for the opposition party. FACT

  46. Interesting article by Alan Ramsey in the SMH
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/history-about-to-repeat-itself–in-reverse/2007/11/16/1194766964919.html

    On October 26 the Australian Electoral Commission announced that 13,645,073 voters had enrolled before the rolls closed three days earlier for next weekend’s election. That represents 550,000 more than had been on the electoral rolls three years earlier (13,098,461) and almost 1.3 million than actually voted in the 2004 election.

    The commission also gave a breakdown of the age groupings of the Australian electorate. These are:

    18-24: 1,535,870.

    25-39: 3,513,510.

    40-54: 3,856,190.

    55 and over: 4,739,500.

    For one, Labor in Nielsen’s polling has been killing the Coalition in all age groups but the over-55s, where the Coalition has an advantage nationally of 49 per cent to 43 per cent in the primary vote.

    But even that six-point lead over Labor is well down on the Coalition’s “grey vote” support during each of the four earlier campaigns.

    The relevant figures among over 55s are: 1996 – Coalition 58, ALP 32; 1998 – Coalition 47, ALP 37; 2001 – Coalition 55, ALP 32; and 2004 – Coalition 58, ALP 34. This campaign, according to Nielsen’s polling, Labor has gained nine percentage points among over-55 voters (up from 34 per cent to 43 per cent) three weeks out from polling day.

    In the other age groups the Coalition is lagging far behind.

    This election, polling among 18-24s, including first-time voters, has increased Labor’s advantage in this age group to 53 per cent to the Coalition’s 32 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens polling 11 per cent, easily their best showing in any of the four age groupings.

    Three years ago Labor’s lead over the Coalition among young voters was a mere 2 points – 43 per cent to 41 per cent. The swing this campaign has been a huge 10 percentage points. Among 25 to 39s, Labor is favoured 49 per cent to the Coalition’s 38 per cent, an 11-point gap, while in the 40 to 54 age grouping – the electorate’s largest – the gap is even greater, at 13 points – 51 per cent to 38 per cent.

    The carnage in NSW and Queensland will be immense.

  47. Do you really think that Abbott would be electable (by his colleagues) as Liberal leader after his poor performance under pressure during this election campaign?

  49. […at least its better than lord downer or cinque ports]

    LOL! Cinque Ports always cracks me up.

    [primary in Bass. 40% Labor, 38% Liberal, 18% green, with 80% green voters saying they will preference Labor ahead of Liberal.]

    Well then that’s in the bag. I have no idea why that counts as being in doubt.

  50. “BASS incumbent Michael Ferguson is …..the only Liberal candidate who appears likely to come close to winning a seat at Saturday’s federal election.
    There are just just four points between him and Labor candidate Jodie Campbell on a two-party preferred result – 52 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for Liberal.”

    Really? The Libs may only win one seat? 🙂

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