Cairns Post: Coalition leads 47-36 in Leichhardt

The Cairns Post has published a poll of 310 respondents in the Cairns and Cape York electorate of Leichhardt, where Labor is reckoned to be a big show despite a 10.3 per cent margin. However, the poll has Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop looking good on 41 per cent with Ian Crossland of the Nationals on 6 per cent, against 36 per cent for Labor’s Jim Turnour and 8 per cent for the Greens. A similar poll on September 22 had Jim Turnour on 44 per cent of the primary vote, Charlie McKillop on 37 per cent and Ian Crossland on 5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

58 comments on “Cairns Post: Coalition leads 47-36 in Leichhardt”

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  1. Calamity John: Howard faces massive defeat

    PRIME Minister John Howard is headed for a calamitous defeat on Saturday, according to the latest Sunday Age poll, which shows that mortgage-belt voters have turned sharply against the Coalition.

    After six rises in interest rates since the last election — which shattered Mr Howard’s promise to keep interest rates at record lows — Labor holds a 14-point lead among mortgage holders.

    The latest Sunday Age/Taverner Research poll shows that 57% of the key mortgage-holder demographic will be voting for Labor, compared with only 43% for the Coalition.

    This is a complete reversal of the 2004 campaign, when a Taverner poll conducted then showed the Coalition enjoying an 8-point margin over Labor among mortgage holders. More than one in five mortgage holders who previously supported the Coalition appear to have shifted their allegiance to Labor.

  2. I’m a bit surprised by these results. As someone said the place is very diverse. Yuppies in Palm Cove, the super rich in Port Douglas, desperately poor indigineous communities and big mortgages in the burbs. One thing though, it will go to preferences this time.
    Council Amalgamations will play no role (the Mayor actually supported the move).

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