Cairns Post: Coalition leads 47-36 in Leichhardt

The Cairns Post has published a poll of 310 respondents in the Cairns and Cape York electorate of Leichhardt, where Labor is reckoned to be a big show despite a 10.3 per cent margin. However, the poll has Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop looking good on 41 per cent with Ian Crossland of the Nationals on 6 per cent, against 36 per cent for Labor’s Jim Turnour and 8 per cent for the Greens. A similar poll on September 22 had Jim Turnour on 44 per cent of the primary vote, Charlie McKillop on 37 per cent and Ian Crossland on 5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

58 comments on “Cairns Post: Coalition leads 47-36 in Leichhardt”

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  1. Leichardt might be difficult to poll accurately given the diverse character and difficulty of ensuring a representative cover of the elecorate on a telephone poll.

    I would suspect that the indigenous commnity would be substantially under represented

  2. MOE approx 5.5% this is a phone poll…. 14% plus in remote areas including Torres straits given retiring mp had a personal vote…… why would swing be so small?
    these figures suggest 53/47
    maybe as some one else said these small local polls mean nothing

  3. A 10% margin seat and the swing does not favour a Will Style Independent … If such a swing exists in “Safe Seats” then this seriously begins to distort the National poll swing which would appear to be locked into the Safe seat regions and not the marginals where it counts. Just how big of a landslide is needed to win a workable majority if most of the swing is in the wrong location?

  4. Just made an interesting discovery.

    Both the Liberal Party and ALP have been allowing user’s to post both video and text comments to their videos on their YouTube site.

    I’ve posted a few video replies to the Liberal negative ads, particularly the one’s about Unions (which is pretty much all of them ๐Ÿ™‚ ).

    Then I discovered they have not been permitting video responses to their latest postings and in some cases have shut down text comments.

    Further cursory inspection revealed that the ALP appears to be getting much higher numbers of hits on their postings and better ratings and have continued to allow both text and video replies.

  5. re post 9 most seats are marginal because they have strong votes in certain
    areas for each party eg Swan WA… With 55/45 vote it is not possible that the swing is only in the safe seats. eg 18% in Oconnor & 1% in Hasluck
    In any case I vexpect some “safe seats” to fall

  6. Riddle me this. All of the major polls are showing a stable swing of aroung 7% to Labor. However most of the small polls I have seen of individual seats are showing little swing at all, 1-4%. ?????

  7. As I commented earlier re Westpoll, this poll is as useless as trying to forecast the weather by looking in the toilet. Polls taken by amateurs, with tiny samples, interpreted by junior reporters in provincial rags are utterly useless. They should not be given any credence at all!

    cheers,

    Alan H

  8. Looking at the table published in your previous post the data shows a consolidation of the main parties vote placing both Liberal and Labour above 40% in Victoria. If that same vote holds in the senate then the split will be 3/3 I suspect similar results in the other states. It is always a problem when the published polls do not provide a break down of the minor parties support.

    The question is will the consolidation hold in the upper house or will voters hedge their vote?

  9. IF A FEDERAL ELECTION FOR THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES WAS HELD TODAY, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? IF “UNCOMMITTED””, TO WHICH ONE OF THESE DO YOU HAVE A LEANING? NOTE: Parties ordered as per result in latest election. ie Government always in first column with all back data in same order.”

    LIBERALNATIONALSCOALITIONALPGREENSOTHERS
    %%%%%%
    Newspoll 2-4 November 2007375424756
    Newspoll 9-11 November 2007364404866

    This weeks table has not been published. Again theri is no state breakdown on the Newspoll web site..

    http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl

  10. Don’t know anything about the Cairns Post. Is it a throwaway or a paid publication? Is it News Ltd? How many staff? Does it require an editor, sub-editor or photographer? Or a typist with a fully charged mobile phone? Just asking because thinking of moving to warmer climes …

  11. LIBERAL, NATIONALS, COALITION, ALP, GREENS, OTHERS

    Newspoll 2-4 November 2007, 37%, 5%, 42%, 47%, 5%, 6%
    Newspoll 9-11 November 2007, 36%, 4%,40%, 48%, 6%, 6%

    I think the Greens are worried.

  12. Probably not the right place for it but here will do. Betfair (Libs out to $4.60, Labor $1.25) have put up an interesting market on who will be the next Liberal party leader – not much liquidity at present but current prices are

    Peter Costello $1.51
    Malcolm Turnbull $10
    Dr Brendan Nelson $10
    Tony Abbott $50
    Alexander Downer $20
    Julie Bishop $60
    John Howard $4.40
    Any other candidate $46

    Rules are basically who will be leader by December 24 unless there is an official change before then.

    Surely Costello won’t put his hand up for opposition leader, Turnbull hasn’t been there long but is probably their best option. Julie Bishop would be ok for mine, the old guard will look out of place

    Any thoughts???

    I’d suggest Cairns will stay Liberal with coalition preferences on a greatly reduced margin.

    p.s. i hope this market hasn’t been posted somewhere else, sorry if it has

  13. Election, LIBERAL, NATIONALS, COALITION, ALP, DEMOCRATS, GREENS, PAULINE HANSON / ONE NATION, OTHERS

    Election 9 October 2004, 40.8%, 5.9%, 46.7%, 37.6%, 7.2%, 8.5%

    Compared to 2004. I am not sure but maybe Tasmania will be the Greens only hope.

  14. I would put Malcomn and Neslon ahead. I am surprised they place Downer at such odds. I would give him 100 to 1, Unless they need a door stop while they buy time to find a suitable candidate. It would be good to see Alex have to take up a le girls job.. well maybe not so good.

  15. Analysis of last ten YouTube Postings of the Major Parties. From here on in to be called the “YouTube Poll”.

    ALP LIB
    Posting days up rating / 5 hits vid/text days up rating / 5 hits vid/text
    1 1 4.5 207 pp 1 2.5 476 np
    2 1 4.5 3529 pp 1 2.5 454 np
    3 2 3.5 206 pp 3 3.5 755 disabled
    4 3 4.5 5582 pp 3 2.5 3537 disabled
    5 4 4.5 705 pp 3 3.5 654 disabled
    6 6 4.5 6309 pp 3 3.5 348 pp
    7 7(week) 4.5 3532 pp 6 3.5 5157 np
    8 7(week) 3.5 3130 pp 7(week) 2.5 6419 pp
    9 7(week) 4 1990 pp 7(week) 2.5 1009 np
    10 7(week) 4 3241 pp 7(week) 2.5 4437 np
    Avg 4.5 4.2 2843 4.1 2.9 2325

    p = response permitted, n = not permitted, disabled is self-evident.

    According to rating’s ALP is up 59:41, according to hits (adjusted for age of vids) ALP is up 53:47, (without age adjustment it is 55:45).

    Giving both averages equal weight we get 56:44 – scarily close to the real polls at present, on the higher side which you could argue takes into account the demographic.

    I don’t think you can go back historically in YouTube to test this theory out further but I may take another “YouTube Poll” on Thursday/Friday.

    Of course, the other point of significance is the Liberals apparent stifling of dissent. I can tell you that 2 of the completely disabled posts are the Brian Courtice ads (presumably they were worried about rat comments). The other one is a “union thug” ad. JWH is, however, happy for you to make text or vid comments on his World Diabetes Day announcement.

  16. News from AAP, Taverner Poll out

    It is being published Fairfax papers

    AAP says that it is 57-43 Labor

    Nothing on sample size etc

    Did the campaign launch work, or is this a reverse narrowing?

    Cue the new thread William

  17. Big Blind Dave 29

    Tell me and we’ll both know. I only saw the story on yahoo. I thought others had of them as I am new to the amateur pseph caper.

    This poll was of people with a mortgage.

  18. Derek @ 19

    The Cairns Post is very much a proper newspaper , you have to buy it etc.

    That is not saying it is a good newspaper! Not dissimilar to any other regional newspaper.

    There are a few interesting aspects to Leichhardt:

    – the demographic change has been enormous over the last 20 years, Cairns now thinks itself as being quite sophisticated
    – compared to Townsville, it is a very private sector town.
    – at the 2004 election there were very big swings to the libs in the Cape York indigenous communities. Not that the libs won majorities, but the difference was significant. This also occurred in other major indigenous communities in QLD. I have posed the question of why? previously on this site and never had anything resembling an objective answer.
    – Noel Pearsons campaign against wilderness protection on the Cape by the state ALP may resonate this time in these communities.

    The small swing in this poll seems odd but it wouldn’t surprise if the libs hold on. The Nat candidate seems like a real tool, and his sexist comments about the liberal woman candidate may play straight into the libs hands.

  19. Found Newspolls 5 State breakdown data

    State, NSW*, Vic, Qld, SA, WA

    COALITION, 44.8%, 46.7%, 49.2%, 48.4%, 48.8%
    Jan-Mar 2007, 36%, 37%, 41%, 35%, 42%
    Apr-Jul 2007, 34%, 38%, 39%, 39%, 43%
    Jul-Sep 2007, 37%, 36%, 43%, 40%, 44%
    Oct 19-21 & 26-28 2007, 37%, 42%, 40%, 39%, 47%
    Oct 26-28 & Nov 2-4 2007, 42%, 41%, 42%, 38%, 46%
    Nov 2-4 & 9-11 2007, 43%, 37%, 43%, 43%, 46%
    Liberal, 37%, 35%, 35%, 42%, 43%
    National, 6%, 2%, 8%, 1%, 3%

    LABOR, 37.4%, 40.4%, 34.8%, 36.8%, 34.7%
    Jan-Mar 2007, 47%, 48%, 49%, 54%, 41%
    Apr-Jul 2007, 51%, 49%, 47%, 49%, 40%
    Jul-Sep 2007, 49%, 51%, 46%, 49%, 40%
    Oct 19-21 & 26-28 2007, 52%, 45%, 52%, 52%, 43%
    Oct 26-28 & Nov 2-4 2007, 46%, 47%, 50%, 53%, 45%
    Nov 2-4 & 9-11 2007, 45%, 50%, 49%, 48%, 44%

    GREENS, 8.2%, 7.5%, 5.1%, 5.4%, 7.7%
    Jan-Mar 2007, 6%, 7%, 3%, 3%, 6%
    Apr-Jul 2007, 5%, 5%, 3%, 4%, 4%
    Jul-Sep 2007, 5%, 5%, 3%, 3%, 4%
    Oct 19-21 & 26-28 2007, 5%, 7%, 3%, 3%, 4%
    Oct 26-28 & Nov 2-4 2007, 5%, 7%, 3%, 3%, 4%
    Nov 2-4 & 9-11 2007, 6%, 8%, 3%, 3%, 6%

    OTHERS, 9.6%, 5.4%, 10.9%, 9.4%, 8.8%
    Jan-Mar 2007, 11%, 8%, 7%, 8%, 11%
    Apr-Jul 2007, 10%, 8%, 11%, 8%, 13%
    Jul-Sep 2007, 9%, 8%, 8%, 8%, 12%
    Oct 19-21 & 26-28 2007, 6%, 6%, 5%, 6%, 6%
    Oct 26-28 & Nov 2-4 2007, 7%, 5%, 5%, 6%, 5%
    Nov 2-4 & 9-11 2007, 6%, 5%, 5%, 6%, 4%

  20. There is not much doubt that Howard will lose his seat – he has been struggling in it all year, has had a terrible few weeks and, his party is about to lose.

    He is probably one of the worst PMs we have had. (Not to mention he holds the record as worst Treasurer)

    He won against Keating because people wanted Keating out and would have voted for Mickey Mouse; 9/11 won him one election [it gave them an immediate 9% boost in the polls] he was about to lose; he won one election by fluke with 49% and, truly only really won one election in an open battle between him and Latham.

    He prostituted Australia’s foreign policy as a favour to Bush, wasted 10 years of Keating/China/Global prosperity and, stuck a knife into most Australians with WorkChoices just to follow a personal ideology and, etc etc. His legacy will be grim and the real dirt will come out in books after he passes on.

  21. What is the point of all these tiny polls? I mean 300 people done by some little newspaper, it’s meaningless, anyone doing analysis off this is little more than guessing.

  22. How much influence would Council amalgamations have in the Cairns region, some areas of Queensland have reacted badly to the Beattie/Bligh govt in Qld pushing through these measures. I realise that is a state as opposed to fed matter but I am not sure that matters to our friends in the north, they see everyone south of the Tropic line as an amorphous enemy.
    Just checked out Centrebet, they have gone to $5.10 Coalition, Sportingbet @ $3.85. Apologies if this has already been noted on other postings. I feel the big movement today has to be in reaction to the AG’s report, seen as the last nail in the coffin for this tired rabble.

  23. William,

    Just wondering why you’ve decided to run with the headline rate of 47-36, apparently aggregating the LNP vote into a coalition primary vote, and thus making an assumption about preferences, whereas not playing a similar game with the green’s preferences? I suppose you might just have followed the headline from the Post? However, if you haven’t, I think it might be worth explaining why- since this is a Lib vs. Nat vs. Labor vs. Green et. al. seat. If you follow th standard 80% distribution of Green preferences to Labor this provides at least something closer to 47-41.

    Cheers

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