Newspoll marginal seats poll

Violent but happily short-lived illness has prevented more timely comment on today’s Newspoll survey of marginal seats in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, repeating the exercise of a fortnight ago. You can view a scanned copy of The Australian’s table here. The previous survey showed Labor on track to gain 24 seats assuming a status quo result elsewhere. This one has Labor’s lead in the New South Wales marginals widening from to 53-47 from 51-49, which seemed a little modest at the time. If uniform, that would add Dobell, Page, Paterson and Cowper to the existing haul of Parramatta, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro and Bennelong, which along with Dobell constituted the six NSW seats surveyed. In Victoria the lead has widened from 52-48 to 53-47, enough to add non-surveyed Gippsland to Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite and La Trobe (which were surveyed) and McEwen (which wasn’t). The lead in Queensland has narrowed from 54-46 to 53-47, which shifts Bowman back to the Coalition column while leaving Labor with the four surveyed seats of Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert along with non-surveyed Longman, Petrie and Flynn. In South Australia the lead increases from 54-46 to 56-44, adding non-surveyed Sturt to the four surveyed seats, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin and Boothby (which might be thought to be dragging down the average). That points to an overall gain of 29 seats: Mount Everest with 13 to spare.

The Channel Nine News tells us tomorrow’s Galaxy poll will point to 10 Labor gains in New South Wales, suggesting a swing of 6 to 7 per cent; three seats in South Australia, which could mean anything from 1 per cent to 5 per cent; three seats in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, meaning anything over 3 per cent; two seats in Queensland, meaning 3 per cent to 5 per cent; no change in Victoria, meaning a swing of less than 5 per cent, and no change in Western Australia, meaning zero or 1 per cent. Queensland is the surprise here; interestingly, the last Galaxy marginals poll also pointed to a disappointing result for Labor in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

633 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats poll”

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  1. Today in Higgins I received a vicous flyer in the mail. It is a fear inducing anti-Greens tirade and it is designed to look as though it is written by the ALP, quoting Linday Tanner. Actually it’s authorised by the Liberals (in tiny, illegible writing). It seems the Liberal Party fears losing its former heartloand.

  2. Don’t expect anyone in Adelaide to give a crap about the Sunday Mail’s endorsement of the Coalition. It’s been barracking for the Coalition for years, and is a pathetic excuse for a newspaper (I’m not talking from a political standing, the entire paper is just awful these days). I still think the Tiser might endorse Rudd, they haven’t been overly flattering of Howard.

  3. “592
    Let It End Says:
    November 18th, 2007 at 1:36 am
    Meh, The Age has piked it and refused to back either;

    Deserve it or not, Howard faces a losing battle with Me Too

    On the contenders’ “exposed form”,The Sunday Age does not see enough differences between the Coalition and Labor to urge readers to vote for one over the other. But we offer some observations.

    That editorial is truly pathetic.
    If The SAge wants to sit on the fence, it is perfectly within its rights so to do. But what are we to make of this indecisive muddle of a paragraph?

    “regardless of who we wake up with next Sunday morning, most Australians would acknowledge, if grudgingly, that John Howard’s Government has done a good job, economically. Some say a resources boom unmatched perhaps since the gold rushes of the 1850s and the wool boom of the 1950s has carried the Coalition for most of its 11-year term. Perhaps, but the fact remains that the odd couple of Howard and Costello have kept their heads, fiscally, when others might not have been so level-headed.”

    Most. If grudgingly. Some say. Perhaps. Might Not.

    Doesn’t Fairfax have an editorial writer with sufficient economic expertise to come down on one side or the other on these arguments and then make an appropriate case? Or does it think the economy isn’t important enough to be seriously analysed so that appropriate conclusions can be drawn?


  4. I discovered this website a couple of days ago. I now spend hours a day, going into about 1am reading your comments and analysis. I’m addicted and it’s not healthy. If Labor wins on the 24th I’ll be on this site next Sunday cheering along with you. If Labor loses you’ll never hear from me again – I’ll be having a media blackout for 4 years.

  5. Coalition optimists maintain that they have run an effective marginal-seats strategy which will see the Government hold the line. They are deluded. As the cliche goes, when the swing is on, it’s on.

    I also believe Howard will lose his seat of Bennelong, on the basis that voters will reason that with the Coalition set to lose the election, there is little point returning Howard to Canberra.

    History will likely judge the Howard era as a period of stable and successful government. It has seen unprecedented economic growth, high employment, low inflation and low interest rates.

    Another Koutsoukis:

    But it won’t long take before the Liberals start to wonder if they squandered their opportunities. A scant perusal of the reform ledger still shows Hawke and Keating way out in front of Howard and Costello.

    An unsentimental bunch, the Liberals never forgive their losers, as Billy McMahon, Billy Snedden, Malcolm Fraser, Andrew Peacock and John Hewson can attest.

    Brimming with rage on the Opposition benches, Costello and what’s left of his “faction” will be tempted to start trashing Howard immediately. With Howard gone, the right wing of the NSW division — known as “The Uglies” — will also be free to exert the full force of their influence and begin the morals crusade they have long hankered for. In other words, civil war. Could be a long time between drinks. Next Sunday, the Liberals’ highest office holder will be the Brisbane mayor.

  6. Luke @ 608
    [I’ll be having a media blackout for 4 years.]

    LOL, don’t let it get you down mate, you’ll be having a rip roaring Sunday 🙂

  7. I think the Tories will be in a huge quandry come next Saturday because their loss will cause an enormous leadership problem. Howard will either be gone or shortly to go. Costello DOES NOT have the ticker to slug it out as leader of the opposition ,so I think he will go too. Who does that leave? Turnbull, if he wins, Abbot (pleeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaasssssssssssseeeeeeeee), Nelson,Hockey and perhaps Bishop. Note no mention of Downer, as even in a parlous state as this, I doubt the tories would contemplate him as leader. Who would you choose? If the margin was big, I reckon they could do worse then select Bishop, but in sayinG that I know nothing oF her ideaology. How far to the right is she?

  8. Gary

    Word is, Costello has been sounding out the corporate boardrooms for some time. I dont think he will hang around if it appears there will be a minimum 6 years in the wilderness. I think they will throw in a stop-gap (perhaps Bishop, or Nelson or perhaps even Downer) and then Turnbull will take control when he see the opportunity. They will be particularly light for some time as the safe seats are full of dead wood ( Ruddock, B Bishop, Abbott etc.) The younger mob (Pyne, Hockey) are going to be damaged – assuming they win – by the fact that their seats have become marginal.

  9. The libs cant compete, what they need now is a complete cleaning out of the stables, generational change, the only ones who should stay are downer and abbot and then only to keep order until the new lot come in. Costello should leave and go into the private sector, never was one less suitefd to be Pm than costello, except for JWRodent.

  10. I was just speculating that a really big loss would require a radical response in terms of the leadership. Going for a woman might just send out the right message to the public that the Liberals were changing. I think pretty well all the obvious candidates are damaged in some way, apart from Turnbull, but the question is, would he want the leadership if they face a long time in opposition?

  11. It simply doesn’t matter what happens to the Liberal leadership. The next Liberal leader to have a serious chance at PM probably won’t even enter parliament until after the next election.

  12. ‘But it won’t long take before the Liberals start to wonder if they squandered their opportunities. A scant perusal of the reform ledger still shows Hawke and Keating way out in front of Howard and Costello.’

    Nuff said.

    Quoted from Koutsoukis in the Sunday Age

  13. Turnbull would have had a 5, 8 or 10 year plan to be PM. He would not have expected to be PM within a couple of years so the eradication or resignation of the senior party (his competitors) would actually be to his advatage.

  14. “They point out that although the polls put Labor’s two-party preferred vote at between 54% and 56%, Labor’s highest two-party vote ever was 53.2%. “The Coalition can win this election with 48% of the two-party vote,” one Labor insider said yesterday.

    “We virtually have to achieve a record high vote to get across the line, so we could well end up two to four seats short of a majority.”

    Sobering reading……

  15. “The Coalition can win this election with 48% of the two-party vote,” one Labor insider said yesterday.”

    Well they better hurry up since the way it has been going for Howard lately it could end up 56/44 on the day.

  16. Bishop has a very right-wing cultural agenda. She’s the latest in a string of interventionist, out-of-touch education ministers who seem either to have got their degrees in Cornflakes packets or forgotten everything they ever learnt at university. She’s not quite as bad as Nelson, but close. I think she’d be appalling as opposition leader, frankly. She’s also very bitchy and negative in her personal style. When Gillard became ALP deputy leader and started dressing more conservatively, Bishop blasted her with both barrels for wearing expensive clothes; but as one of the commentators pointed out at the time, in her whole career in parliament Bishop has never worn the same dress twice. Yukyukyuk. But of course they may not have anyone else.

  17. [211 – According to that Federal Election site (linked from Morgan), the ALP are leading 53/47 in Mayo. That is a swing of 16.4% to Labor :D:D:D]

    Oh Chinster. It is a bit much to ask Santa for something else … but, I wish, I wish!

  18. 303 Adam
    [Hands up who else has never heard of Missy Higgins?]

    My hand’s up! For a while I thought the posters were making some vague reference to the trouble Costello was in. LOL!

    JD, I drove through Corangamite yesterday on a Geelong (taxi) job from Warrnambool. A roadside snapshot is hardly science, but the only posters I observed from anyone were Family First and Your Rights @ Work. On that basis Stewie would have to pull the finger out!

    Judging by the Newspoll analysis I’d say this is close to gone. And Cheeseman’s not a bad name for a rep in a largely dairy electorate.

  19. Tne smart money is moving in on Corangamite. Cheeseman is now favourite. This will be one of those seats that no one used to see coming, but now they do thanks to the betting markets.

  20. Just caught a news headline on 7 – ‘Rudd accused of being too confident’. They’re really scrapping the bottom of the barrel now.

  21. Just caught a news headline on 7 – ‘Rudd accused of being too confident’. They’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

  22. Whither the Liberal party? Given Labor wins on the 24th, what are the consequences for the Libs in opposition? If they just lose by a few seats, I would still expect a number of the older, “experienced” hands would decide to pull the pin early – inc Howard, Costello, Ruddock, Bishop, Nelson, Tuckey – rather than hang around (add to the list if you like). That would result in a rash of by elections which Labor might win some. The usual case of a govt losing support in a by election wouldn’t apply.

    Hopefully, the Libs will be reduced to a rump and some of the above would be gone anyway. In this case the prospect of the Libs being a significant force anytime in the future are bleak. Given the position of the State Liberals there is no prospect of developing talent there for future Canberra representatives. Nor will the surviving Canberra MPs have much scope for retaining staffers for future nurturing. Also, whereas Labor can draw on the “dreaded” unions for future talent, where will the future Libs come from.

    Most critically, if the Libs are not in govt anywhere in the country, will business be willing to make the sort of donations they have in the past. Business does make big donations without expectations of a return on its investment. Without the flow of funds can the Liberal Party can survive in its current form? There will be no opportunity to run publicly funded propaganda ie ads as they have done this year, and a diminished cash flow for their own PR campaigns. Branch membership is already declining and I would expect it to crash completely after this election.

  23. muk0le at 75.

    Is emboldened to say.

    “the vile little runt has proven he can fool most of the people most of the time i predict a liberal victory by 5 seats. and i hope i’m wrong, and if i’m right i expect it will take me at least six months before i can watch the news again’.


    Save it.

    Clear that you have not watched the news for the last six months.

  24. News Ltd is fast becoming a journalistic embarrassment. Most of their papers were spinning this poll as a very narrow win for Labor.
    Have a look at the Hun column.
    “Labor was still short of sufficient support to pick up five key Coalition marginal seats in Victoria — Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite, La Trobe and McEwen, the poll showed.”
    The only problem for Lincoln Wright and Glenn Milne is, the poll didn’t show that at all. Have a look at the figures reported in the Australian. The Poll shows the ALP will pick up all five as well as Gippsland.

    Milne and Wright? Thick or just following Rupert’s riding instructions?

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