Newspoll marginal seats poll

Violent but happily short-lived illness has prevented more timely comment on today’s Newspoll survey of marginal seats in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, repeating the exercise of a fortnight ago. You can view a scanned copy of The Australian’s table here. The previous survey showed Labor on track to gain 24 seats assuming a status quo result elsewhere. This one has Labor’s lead in the New South Wales marginals widening from to 53-47 from 51-49, which seemed a little modest at the time. If uniform, that would add Dobell, Page, Paterson and Cowper to the existing haul of Parramatta, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro and Bennelong, which along with Dobell constituted the six NSW seats surveyed. In Victoria the lead has widened from 52-48 to 53-47, enough to add non-surveyed Gippsland to Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite and La Trobe (which were surveyed) and McEwen (which wasn’t). The lead in Queensland has narrowed from 54-46 to 53-47, which shifts Bowman back to the Coalition column while leaving Labor with the four surveyed seats of Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert along with non-surveyed Longman, Petrie and Flynn. In South Australia the lead increases from 54-46 to 56-44, adding non-surveyed Sturt to the four surveyed seats, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin and Boothby (which might be thought to be dragging down the average). That points to an overall gain of 29 seats: Mount Everest with 13 to spare.

The Channel Nine News tells us tomorrow’s Galaxy poll will point to 10 Labor gains in New South Wales, suggesting a swing of 6 to 7 per cent; three seats in South Australia, which could mean anything from 1 per cent to 5 per cent; three seats in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, meaning anything over 3 per cent; two seats in Queensland, meaning 3 per cent to 5 per cent; no change in Victoria, meaning a swing of less than 5 per cent, and no change in Western Australia, meaning zero or 1 per cent. Queensland is the surprise here; interestingly, the last Galaxy marginals poll also pointed to a disappointing result for Labor in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

633 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats poll”

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  1. You would think The Oz would stop this nonsense of projecting marginal seat swings onto the 6-10% margin seats.

    Sometimes I feel the overwhelming need to beat Dennis up with Oztrack 33 – or their own quarterly Newspolls.

  3. We have duelling polls this weekend. Newspoll, Galaxy and a Morgan to be released for tomorrow as well.
    Which one is correct?
    Which one is going to be the closest to the mark on election?
    There is a lot of cred at stake for these companies over the next week. !
    I tipped 86 seats for the ALP. I couldn’t care if they got 76, as long as they get up.!

  6. Reading these results, i was overcome at how good they are for the alp as they are marginal seats (some safe seats may fall as well) if they do how many seats might the alp win then 🙂

    I am happy to call this for the alp now, however if the electorate does re-elect the coalition then i will be proved wrong 🙂

    Either way there is only 7 days left and who knows, this time next weekend it could all be over with Anthony announcing the alp has 90 seats without counting even starting in w.a.

  7. Anyone (from either side of politics) who thinks these polls give any comfort to the Coalition needs their head examined.
    Here’s a question: which seat will produce (a) the biggest 2PP swing to Labor and (b) the smallest 2PP swing to Labor (or biggest swing to Coalition).
    I’ll be Sydney-centric about it (sorry all):
    (a) Warringah – Tony will go close to losing an unloseable seat.
    (b) Wentworth – in fact, I’ll stick my neck out further and say that Wentworth will be the only seat in the Reps anywhere in Australia that will swing to the Coalition (2PP).
    Thoughts? Perhaps the seat that wins (a) will be a seat in Qld? And (b) in WA?

  8. One more week with evident disarray and liberal infighting with no where to go for thsoe tory ‘hangers on’ unless they can get a job on the Brisbane council should see my prediction of 103 seats to Labor, pretty close to the mark. “You can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all the time” It’s Time. Bring it on.

  12. this equates approx 55/45 with slightly better in sa/qld & tas
    which is what the polls have been showing last 6 weeks plus
    add standard deviation of swing which could be another 2-3 %
    then assume Wentworth/ Bennelong not won this could be an extra 10 seats
    plus upsets in Calare & Forrest (indep wins)

  13. “Anyone (from either side of politics) who thinks these polls give any comfort to the Coalition needs their head examined.”
    I read William’s post about the Galaxy marginal seat poll after I wrote this. Might need to back track slightly … a projected 18 seat gain is still amazingly close considering the way practically everyone thinks it’s over.

  15. Ice444 said

    “I am happy to call this for the alp now, however if the electorate does re-elect the coalition then i will be proved wrong ”

    Sooo if you be right unless you are wrong. Often works out that way 🙂

  16. It’s odd that all th epolls are pointing to a labor win, but they are so different in the swings in each state, and even in the same states between polls by the same company a copule of weeks apart.

    I guess we have to wait to see which seats they polled, but I have to say that as much as I love all this, it really is doing my fcuking head in!

  17. I think 7 news the Galaxy poll had a swing of about 9% in NSW and about 5% in QLD. I think that’s wat they said.

    The Sunday newspapers will be out by now. Has anyone seen them?

  19. Ummm … if this Galaxy marginal seat poll is a correct indicator of current voting intention, we’ll all be biting our fingernails this time next week.
    I know it’s only one poll, but still, hardly what I was expecting at this stage.
    Am I missing the point or something?

  21. Galaxy will be proved too conservative – in every sense – on the night. Im willing to punt on that publicly.

    However, even on its figures (2 seats in QLD … my a*se!), thats a win.

  22. ruawake, if I read William correctly, that’s Newspoll.
    But Galaxy (as reported by Ch 9) is saying 10(NSW) + 3(SA) + 3(NT/Tas) + 2(Qld) + nil(Vic/WA). 18 seat gain, hence presumably 78-70-2 in the new HoR. Not all that one-sided at all, in fact close enough to be a real contest in the last week.
    But maybe there’s more we haven’t been told yet?

  24. I have never known so much about seats in other states. It’s all been a huge psephological upgrade for me.
    I am now worried about my bingo cards, surely Wilson Tuckee and Downer won’t lose their seats will thay?

    I must also coment on a Costello bilboard on a prominent corner. After being up for 2 days it was graffitied with sneaky, lier etc. It was then cleaned off or replaced.Then after 3 clean days the graffiti returned with anti workchoices slogans. Then more, and more, and more. Today there are stickers and spray painted loser, wanker across it. It is so defaced that it is doing way more damage than any benefit.
    A sign of the times?? And they reckon there are no baseball bats.
    (I don’t condone this but just commenting)

  25. centaur_007 @ 10

    [gosh these odds are ridiculous. Phar lap was 1.72 in 1932. Shorley it can’t go under 1.10? If so I’ll eat my hat.]

    Phar Lap wasn’t in a two-horse race. By Friday, it could well be at a point where Labor is completely unbackable – there is absolutely no good news on the horizon, and it’s obvious even to the one-eyed supporters that there’s no coming back for Team Howard.

  26. Should I put my hand up for the job of trotting down to the servo to pick up the latest NewsFax Sunday papers and reporting on them? I reckon the blokes driving the delivery trucks will be faster than the kiddies on teh internet sites.

  31. My call was for the ALP to get 85 seats – that still seems about right to me. The “risk” is that it will be much higher if the coalition pushes the panic button this week.

    With good enough swings in the marginals and bigger swings in the safe seats a true rout is possible.

    It does seem to have gone quiet – perhaps they are trying not to stir things up and make it worse.

    I’d expect Kevin to more to stack the back line and run the clockdown in the next few days.

  32. Sondeo @ 3:

    Who cares which polls are going to be closer? Noise, last-minute newsvoters and MOE make it a coin toss.

    The real question is Possum vs Lambert – the heavyweight title fight for Psephology Champion of Australia.

    Will it be 55.15% or 55.5% TPP?

  33. Although this poll has the largest sample we’ve seen to date it is still only 200 per electorate. The MoE for each state is still at least +/- 3%. At the best-case for the coalition they may only lose 11. Don’t mean to throw cold buckets of water on this party but I’ve never had faith in surveys that call so few people. By comparison the ABS labour force survey calls 30,000 people to get an estimate of what 10,500,000 people did for work last week. Asking 3,500 to get an idea of what 15,000,000 are thinking of doing in a ballet box is asking for trouble.

  34. Polling is an inexact science, so everyone should calm down a bit. None of these minor fluctuations mean anything.

    Could someone familiar with the Sunshine Coast tell me why Conondale was the only booth in Fisher to vote Labor in 2004, and one of only a handful of booths to swing to Labor?

  40. If the Howard Govt. has taught us anything it is that having a local member who is a member of the Govt. gets your local area more perks. Why wouldn’t you want your local member to be a member of the Govt?

    For this reason, I don’t understand why people vote against the party they think is going to win. I would say the Liberals biggest problem in this last week will be trying to dismiss the argument that Labor is a sure thing.

    It doesn’t matter for me, I am in Labor heartland. Just a suggestion for those in more marginal seats. ;-p

  41. [Polling is an inexact science, so everyone should calm down a bit. None of these minor fluctuations mean anything.]

    If the 2006 QLD election is anything to go by, Galaxy don’t seem to have a good record polling that state.

    [Could someone familiar with the Sunshine Coast tell me why Conondale was the only booth in Fisher to vote Labor in 2004, and one of only a handful of booths to swing to Labor?]

    Voters there dislike taxi drivers?

  42. As i understand it, it is not the marginals that need to be polled but the outliers. They are not all campaigning in the over 10% swing needed seats in Qld and to a lesser margin in SA if there was not something at stake for them.
    There is something else happening out there amd I think it is something to do with the bigger the mortgage the bigger the swing.

  43. I just heard on the ABC news break mention of a new poll coming out tomorrow showing the ALP leading the Coalition 56 – 44. Is this the Morgan poll of marginal seats?

  44. Just on polls for one more second, if this Galaxy is as reported so far, it’s the first credible(?) poll since Rudd became leader last December that has Howard within a bull’s roar.
    It would be good to find out a bit more.

  45. Adam @ 34 – that’s easy – depends on where people are doing their shopping on polling day. When looking a booth demos the first question you should ask is where is the nearest Sale. Geo-correlate this with ABS and bingo!

  46. El Nino @ 38, all I meant was that Ch 9 might not have reported all the relevant info. Not thinking conspiracies, more just ignorance, or the need to compress a mildly complex story into a 10 second news grab.

  48. And the narrowing continues, in odds that is:

    Labor: $1.17
    Libs: $5.10

    Never heard of a mug bookie only a mug punter

    Still, libs at top value if Labour only favoured for 18 seats, a lot could happen in a week with undecided voters.

    Can Mike Bailey topple Shrek ? I think Shrek is too well liked

    Maxine at $2.35 and firming

  49. I saw a few posts from people who attended the ALP Function at the Prospect Town Hall today.

    I’m not sure what the others thought of the video clip they showed?

    I thought it was pretty stirring stuff – very positive, frash , inspiring, forward looking.

    Would love to see a much shorter version made into a TV advertisement.

  50. Peter J. Nicholl. Definitely, there should be an award for heavy weight psephy of the year. But what do we give them? Quantum computing. They’d like that. So would I.

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