Newspoll marginal seats poll

Violent but happily short-lived illness has prevented more timely comment on today’s Newspoll survey of marginal seats in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, repeating the exercise of a fortnight ago. You can view a scanned copy of The Australian’s table here. The previous survey showed Labor on track to gain 24 seats assuming a status quo result elsewhere. This one has Labor’s lead in the New South Wales marginals widening from to 53-47 from 51-49, which seemed a little modest at the time. If uniform, that would add Dobell, Page, Paterson and Cowper to the existing haul of Parramatta, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro and Bennelong, which along with Dobell constituted the six NSW seats surveyed. In Victoria the lead has widened from 52-48 to 53-47, enough to add non-surveyed Gippsland to Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite and La Trobe (which were surveyed) and McEwen (which wasn’t). The lead in Queensland has narrowed from 54-46 to 53-47, which shifts Bowman back to the Coalition column while leaving Labor with the four surveyed seats of Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert along with non-surveyed Longman, Petrie and Flynn. In South Australia the lead increases from 54-46 to 56-44, adding non-surveyed Sturt to the four surveyed seats, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin and Boothby (which might be thought to be dragging down the average). That points to an overall gain of 29 seats: Mount Everest with 13 to spare.

The Channel Nine News tells us tomorrow’s Galaxy poll will point to 10 Labor gains in New South Wales, suggesting a swing of 6 to 7 per cent; three seats in South Australia, which could mean anything from 1 per cent to 5 per cent; three seats in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, meaning anything over 3 per cent; two seats in Queensland, meaning 3 per cent to 5 per cent; no change in Victoria, meaning a swing of less than 5 per cent, and no change in Western Australia, meaning zero or 1 per cent. Queensland is the surprise here; interestingly, the last Galaxy marginals poll also pointed to a disappointing result for Labor in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

633 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats poll”

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  1. i toddled out in the heat to go see the great man at my local shopping centre {Parabanks} today, i must say i’m even more impressed, he looked a bit tired but nowhere near as nerdy as i expected, i couldnt get close enough to speak to him because he came right in the middle of the Salisbury xmas parade, besides i’m already converted so i guess the swingers should be given a go.
    i worked my way around the betting thingy site today {i got thoroughly lost lol}and put my dosh and free bet on Howard being turfed out of Bennelong, fingers crossed —- you go girl!!!!!

  4. The ALP had this won well before the election, when they changed to Ruud and the Libs introduced their welfare to work changes pissing off the “howard battlers” last december. The idea that you can sample a very small group of very different marginals and draw uniform inferences about them and others is ridiculous. So I wouldnt get to excited about galaxy’s effort. However, you would have to say
    in SA 3 to ALP from the writs, with up to two more come (+4)
    in WA none for certain but probably at least one, assuming they hold their own (+1)
    in NT Solomon is probable (+1)
    in Tas Bass gone for all money, Braddon probable (+2)
    in Vic none for sure but probably 2-6 (+4)
    In NSW 2 down, with a probably 3 that should have gone and 3 on the cusp (+3)
    In QLD 2 from the writs, 4 likely, 4 on the cusp (+6)
    At least 21 seats, with 11 more in the balance
    Rudd’s to lose but he’d have to do better than Hewson

  6. Commitment doesn’t come into it, Harry. I still believe that the paper versions of newspapers and magazines will always be better than their websites. In the last couple of years technology has improved so much that you can read the news on your laptop or more recently your Blackberry, but it just doesn’t provide the same satisfaction as a rustling broadsheet newspaper while you are sitting on the bog. And that’s the way Him Indoors prefers it, particularly of a Sundy morn’n.

  7. I Don’t believe it, another mob of Doctor Unionists (not the AMA) Support an ALP Policy.

    [A health lobby group has welcomed a commitment from federal Labor to establish a national primary health care strategy if the party wins the election.

    The Australian General Practice Network (AGPN) has been holding its national conference in Hobart for the past two days.

    AGPN spokesman Dr Tony Hobbs says Opposition health spokeswoman Nicola Roxon has made a commitment to implement a strategy, but Health Minister Tony Abbott has yet to do so.

    “I thought that the Labor Party today outlined a way forward – a more planned, a more structured way forward for primary health care,” he said.

    “We all know that hospital care is very important.

    “People do get sick, people do need appropriate care in hospital.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093806.htm?section=justin

  8. SamuelK@40

    Not ture that a local member on the ‘Govt side’ brings perks and porks. Warringah has ‘The Mad Monk’ – nothing!! He once promised a tunnel – I refer to it fondly as ‘Tony’s Tunnel’. So horrendously expensive and with such a ludicrous toll it wouldn’t be built. You can go to his website and see lots of Work for Dole programs, but that’s about it. – Zilch, Zippo , Nada.

  10. Thanks ruawake, I suspected as much. If what we hear about the Sunshine Coast is true, the hippies will have a lot of company voting Labor this time. I think both Slippery and Somnolent will get a shock next Saturday.

  11. Evat made a good point

    A poll of the outliers, the 7-13% range would be ggod.

    Just because the marginals are swing @6% to give labor around 53% doesn’t mean that it will also be 6% in the outliers.

    These could swing 11% to bring it to 53%.

    Newspoll also taken before labors policy launch, Abbotts funny home video segment on Work Choices and pork barrelling Audit report.

    Qld preferences have been allocated 50/50 as per 2004, in other states it is around 70/30 as per 2004.

  13. Yeah I went to sportingbet and got my free bet aswell.

    Actually I deposited $130, put $100 on ALP nationally ($1.20), $30 on ALP for Hasluck ($1.45 is the best value sure bet left).

    I the got TWO $100 freebets in their promotion.

    $100 on ALP Benelong @ $2.40
    $100 on ALP Stirling @ $2.10

    both double your money back for a freebet (freebet doesn’t return your investment, just the profit)

    I reckon worst case senario here is $120 in my account- down from $130 but a new government.

  16. If Queensland bucks the trend of the swing – despite Rudd and Swan being hometown boys – it will confirm every perception of the state as the “deep north”.

  17. Adam

    Slippery will have the boot (on Hutchison + Green preferences). Alex Who? has the fight of his life on his hands (he just hasn’t figured it out yet 😉 )

  20. Fellow bludgers:

    Galaxy detail:

    20 seats polled – average swing 4.5%.

    Poll conducted Nov 10 to 15 of 4000 people in 20 marginals.

    State by state:

    NSW Tpp – 53/47 – primary ALP vote 42%, coalition 43%, greens 11%.
    Swing – 7.5%. 9 seats gained: Wentworth, Lindsay, E-M, Bennelong, Dobell, Page, Paterson, Cowper, Robertson. Seat at risk – Hughes

    Vic – tpp – 53-47. primary alp 42, coalition 43, greens 11.
    Swing – 4.6%, seats gained – nil. At riskDeakin, McMillan, Corangamite, La Trobe, McEwen

    Qld tpp – 51/ 49. primary – alp 44, coalition 44, greens 8
    Swing 5.1%, seats gained Bonner, Moreton. At risk – Blair, Herbert, Longman, Petrie, Flynn

    SA tpp 51/ 49. Primary – alp 42, coalition 42, greens 8.
    Swing 4.5%. Seats gained: Kingston, Wakefield, Makin. At risk – Boothby, Sturt.

    WA – tpp50/50. Primary – ALP 40, coalition 45, greens 9.
    Seats gained – nil. At risk – Hasluck, Stirling.

    Seats not polled but considered/ assumed labor gains:
    Bass, Braddon (both Tassie); Solomon (NT – says in paper WA).

    Seats not polled but considered lost to coalition – Cowan (WA).

    Sorry for any errors. Hope this helps.

  22. i’ve done the sportingbet thing, $30 on labor (at $1.20) and $100 free bet on maxine at $2.40…….should have done it whne the odds were better!…oh well I’ll take my $6 winning any day, and if its a labor loss lossing $30 wont exactly be my biggest problem!

  23. Dyno

    Agreed – a bit more info would be handy to interprit the galaxy poll. Was it taken other the same period as Newspoll. I doubt it was taken after the effect of the ALP launch. Which seats would be good as well.

    Its interesting that both polls have a similar sample size of around 4000 both come up with an aggregate number of 53/47. When you drill down to states and seats the MOE increases alot.

    QLD has (i think) 12 seats with a margin of less than 10% but only 2 seats with a margin of less than 5.6%. So the number of seats predicted would be very sensitive to a low sample 2pp to the ALP.

    The galaxy poll is just one more incomplete, noisy bit of data.

  24. A lot of Greens preferences. That would be enough for Labor. Especially in South Australia, where you’d have think Wakefield, Makin and Kingston are certanties.

  25. be careful. if there were ever a politician who could bring off a historic unrepeatable win from here it is john howard. the vile little runt has proven he can fool most of the people most of the time on too many occasions to be counted out.
    i predict a liberal victory by 5 seats. and i hope i’m wrong, and if i’m right i expect it will take me at least six months before i can watch the news again.
    but i just can’t imagine the greedy little homeowning breeders ever voting him out.

  26. Cook is on 13.7. Even with a hefty swing in NSW and the loss of Baird’s personal vote it’s hard to see it going, but stranger things have happened. It depends on whether the stench of the Towke affair has dissipated or not.

  28. So again – most polling would have been done before the ALP launch – and definately ahead of the RPP rorts and the Abbott gaffe.

  37. Oberserver @58

    I know what you mean re Abbott, but I was really talking about remotely marginal seats that change hands occasionally.

    As much as there is a swing on, and seats like North Sydney are in potential trouble, I don’t think Warringah is in much doubt….

  38. 78 – true.

    I assume but don’t know that they polled an equal number from each seat. If that’s the case, what’s the MOE on such a sample from each seat? I’d try to work out the sample size for the individual seats, but I’ve been umpiring cricket from 830 this morning to 615 tonight and my head is fried. Can’t do it.

    Missy Higgins has also come out (see p 3 Tele) and admitted she’s gay.
    In other shock news, China is the world’s most populous nation, and Earth is third planet from the Sun.

  39. According to Burgey, the Galaxy poll was taken from 10 – 15 Nov. (Sat. – Thurs.). It would barely take into account the Labor launch. And don’t forget that Queenslanders in particular detest corruption after the Bjieke (sp?) years, so the regional grants fiasco may not have gone down too well.

  41. muk0le don’t over-rate Howard. Even in 2001 with Tampa, September 11 and general feeling that we better not do anyhting that might look like letting the terrorists win the ALP made up ground during the campaign.

    The only guy he has beaten during a campaign was Latham (even in 96 the polls flatlined like they are now). And I don;t think Rudd is going to go a Latham handshake on Howard in the next 6 days.

    Howard’s political smarts all relate to him making sure things were all lined up before he called an election. Once the campaigns have started, he’s been no superstar.

  42. Dyno,

    don’t get worried about the Galaxy marginal poll.

    the swings in the non marginal Lib seats of 6-11% (that haven’t been polled)are even bigger than the marginals swings.

    this will be a rout.

  45. Re Queensland
    I don’t know because I live in NSW
    but if there was a place for possible big swings it is Queensland
    LABOR has a very very poor vote there in 2004
    State election votes suggest what is possible
    If there is a 10% swing then 10 to 15 seats could change hands
    this is the land of the possible outiers.. …Ryan. Leichhardt, Forde, Dickson, Flynn
    Bowman, Fisher, Mcpherson, Fadden, Dawson……. due to retirements
    demographic changes, Mr Rudd comes from QLD, Work choices in Industrial/mining
    towns etc

  46. Galaxy doesnt seen to make sense in Western Australia, where did the 5.4% swing to labor go if its not in Hasluck or Stirling. Very dodgy.

  48. Damn it! JWH was in Greenway and no one told me! AAAAAAAARGH! I could have gone over and said hi LOL

    Where in Greenway was he? I’ll be annoyed if it’s towards the south!

    As a Greenway resident, I never thought he would turn up here. I thought the seat was too safe, with demographics of the Hawkesbury!

    Is there such thing as a safe coalition at this election?

    BTW, Go the Aussie netballers. Love your work. Go you good things

  49. [thanks for the detail on galaxy Burgey

    any ideas how the ALP can poll 53/47 across the five marginals in Victoria but not win one?]

    It’s the swing that counts. Labor need 5% to win the first Victorian marginal. There isn’t good value for swing to be had.

    But the thing is they may win a seat on an 8 or 9% margin, but Galaxy or Newspoll didn’t poll any of those, so we don’t know.

    I hope they poll some of those 8 – 11% seats this week. Everyone knows Rudd has been campaigning in such seats – especially in QLD. So you’d think the papers would poll some of those seats to see if anything is happening, or if Rudd is just doing it to make the Liberals worry.

  50. Doing a browse on seats polled (again, bare with me here guys):

    NSW: 800 voters over EM, Page, Robertson, Wentworth
    WA: 800 over Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan
    Qld: 800 over Bonner, Herbert, Longman and Moreton.
    Vic: 800 over Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe, McEwen
    SA: 800 over Boothby, Sturt, Wakefield and Makin.

    In other words, 200 voters per seat (assuming equal sampling from each).

    Can someone let me know please what the MOE is on that sample, per electorate.

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