Newspoll marginal seats poll

Violent but happily short-lived illness has prevented more timely comment on today’s Newspoll survey of marginal seats in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, repeating the exercise of a fortnight ago. You can view a scanned copy of The Australian’s table here. The previous survey showed Labor on track to gain 24 seats assuming a status quo result elsewhere. This one has Labor’s lead in the New South Wales marginals widening from to 53-47 from 51-49, which seemed a little modest at the time. If uniform, that would add Dobell, Page, Paterson and Cowper to the existing haul of Parramatta, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro and Bennelong, which along with Dobell constituted the six NSW seats surveyed. In Victoria the lead has widened from 52-48 to 53-47, enough to add non-surveyed Gippsland to Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite and La Trobe (which were surveyed) and McEwen (which wasn’t). The lead in Queensland has narrowed from 54-46 to 53-47, which shifts Bowman back to the Coalition column while leaving Labor with the four surveyed seats of Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert along with non-surveyed Longman, Petrie and Flynn. In South Australia the lead increases from 54-46 to 56-44, adding non-surveyed Sturt to the four surveyed seats, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin and Boothby (which might be thought to be dragging down the average). That points to an overall gain of 29 seats: Mount Everest with 13 to spare.

The Channel Nine News tells us tomorrow’s Galaxy poll will point to 10 Labor gains in New South Wales, suggesting a swing of 6 to 7 per cent; three seats in South Australia, which could mean anything from 1 per cent to 5 per cent; three seats in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, meaning anything over 3 per cent; two seats in Queensland, meaning 3 per cent to 5 per cent; no change in Victoria, meaning a swing of less than 5 per cent, and no change in Western Australia, meaning zero or 1 per cent. Queensland is the surprise here; interestingly, the last Galaxy marginals poll also pointed to a disappointing result for Labor in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

633 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats poll”

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  2. It’s time,

    I don’t agree that an unpopular war would be the only thing to spoil Rudd’s chances but of coarse it is highly unlikely that the Libs could come back so soon. Personally I think the Libs will need two terms in opposition to reform the party anyway.

  4. [ShowsOn Says:
    Green issues are going to get more and more important.

    That is the understatement of the year. I have followed the science on environmental issues for over 20 years, and almost all the important measures of environmental health are going critical. Crunch time is ‘a coming, and real soon.]

    I can remember being taught about the hole in the ozone layer and the green house effect when I was in year 6 (1991)

    Fortunately the ozone layer became a big issue in the mid 1990s when they banned CFCs, but it is shocking it took 15 years for green house to REALLY make it onto the national political agenda.

  6. 548
    Blackbird Says:
    November 18th, 2007 at 1:00 am
    Interesting… the first 5 steps don’t include workplace reform.
    …..
    He needs a new senate for this, b

  7. ShowsOn, and FFP will vote to block gay law reform. Please, just cross your fingers we get to see 3 coalition senators go splat.

  10. [ShowsOn, and FFP will vote to block gay law reform. Please, just cross your fingers we get to see 3 coalition senators go splat.]

    They will be down a long term hack Liberal from S.A.

    The Courier Mail reported that the coalition has given up on trying to save Ron Boswell.

    The WORST aspect of family first is some of them are real neaderthals. There is this FF guy in the S.A. upper house named Dennis Hood who is a self confessed young earth creationist. He refused to rule out that the universe may be 6000 years old or less.

  15. 558
    Blackbird Says:
    November 18th, 2007 at 1:04 am
    Yes i realise that blindoptimist, but ordinary people don’t. He can always try, fail, and then try again.
    …
    Quite right Blackbird. I wonder of people will notice? The concept of a Rudd government is being fleshed out: no longer just a possibility, but an impending reality. Will it kick off an honeymoon effect even before the election has been held?

  18. We could make you Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports if that is any consolation.

    Nah, just give me a nice cup of tea (and rum), an afternoon nap in the sun room, and replace my colostomy bag before you lead me to my bed, and I’ll be right. 😉

  20. [Nah, just give me a nice cup of tea (and rum), an afternoon nap in the sun room, and replace my colostomy bag before you lead me to my bed, and I’ll be right. ;)]

    LOL!

    But no 😐

  25. Just looked at that Koutsoukis article. It worries me a little and I suspect that the apparent collapse in the Tory vote in the mortgage belt will help the Libs craft an election-winning policy in the last week that Rudd won’t be able to match.

    My gut feeling is that Howard will come out next Wednesday and offer to pay off everyone’s mortgage if they vote him back in.

    And then – just to be sure of the renter’s vote, he’ll throw in a slab of VB.

  29. [[ Pyne’s wife writing a letter to people in Sturt ]
    What’s her name “Peta, Bobby, Dale…….)]

    Carolyn.

    Apparently she converted to Catholicism just to marry him.

  35. As an ex Liberal supporter I’ve got to say the party has really changed under Howard. It’s nothing like it was before Howard. They’ve gone hard right and I’m hoping this coming election loss will help purge the extreme right wingers from the party.

  36. Aussie Guru @ 576

    Working a booth in Bennelong between 1 and 4 on Saturday. Still havent had a booth nominated as yet. Apparently they have been politely declining volunteers for some weeks and trying to direct them to North Sydney. Will post some anecdotal feedback 4.30 or thearabouts on Sats arvo.

  37. One of the interesting things to emerge for me in this campaign is the beginning of a resurrection of P J Keating to his rightful place in the pantheon of Labor Prime Ministers. No longer snuck in through the side door. The most original thinker in politics in our history, a true and courageous reformer who brought in the measures that have given Australia its current period of prosperity. Compare this to the present incumbent, a grey little man who has never had an original idea, and only governs now through trickery and playing to the basest motives of humanity. PJK, we want to hear and see more of you!

  38. Forget the War on Terror, the next War will be on Climate Change.

    I have the benefit of speaking with some of the leading minds in the field about Climate Change, and let me just say this is THE issue of our lifetimes. What is truly scary is most people have no idea just how serious it is.

  41. [One of the interesting things to emerge for me in this campaign is the beginning of a resurrection of P J Keating to his rightful place in the pantheon of Labor Prime Ministers. No longer snuck in through the side door. The most original thinker in politics in our history, a true and courageous reformer who brought in the measures that have given Australia its current period of prosperity. Compare this to the present incumbent, a grey little man who has never had an original idea, and only governs now through trickery and playing to the basest motives of humanity. PJK, we want to hear and see more of you!]

    Agree, agree, agree.

    And his social agenda of Reconciliation and Republic that he championed in the 1990s will finally return and be implemented under the next Labor administration.

    The republic will have bipartisan support for the first time ever, which is a pre-requisite for any constitutional amendment.

  44. “One of the interesting things to emerge for me in this campaign is the beginning of a resurrection of P J Keating to his rightful place in the pantheon of Labor Prime Ministers.”

    AND hopefully Hawke & Keating’s legacy will get fully explained and recognised by the media during the next 3 years.

  45. Kina (451)

    I agree with your observation that Howard could have won this election easily if he had just behaved himself and acted a little decently. I’m surprised though that you didn’t mention workchoices. I believe that ideological pile of pus, more than anything else, is what did him in. He just couldn’t help himself when he won that unexpected senate majority. Now he not only loses government but trashes his own legacy in the process. How sweet it is.

  46. 580
    kina
    Great get.
    I have been an avid political junkie since 1970 (when my lotto number came up) but I can seriously say, that is one of the most oustanding piece’s of research work I can recall.
    If Harry (Snapper something) is right, some big Climate Change announcement is about to be made, destroying whatever is left of Team Howard.
    Pity the information in your posting won’t get the broad public exposure it deserves.

  48. “one of the interesting things to emerge for me…”

    Agreed. I think there is a bit of jumping on the Band Wagon now. I dont recall in the darker days of the last 11 years too many coming out and proclaiming the virtues of PJK.

  49. There is really so much to be done on climate change and all the other issues. Howard has wasted a lot of money but his waste of time is a much greater loss. I console myself by hoping everything will feel 50% lighter once he’s gone and a new start can be made.

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