Violent but happily short-lived illness has prevented more timely comment on today’s Newspoll survey of marginal seats in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, repeating the exercise of a fortnight ago. You can view a scanned copy of The Australian’s table here. The previous survey showed Labor on track to gain 24 seats assuming a status quo result elsewhere. This one has Labor’s lead in the New South Wales marginals widening from to 53-47 from 51-49, which seemed a little modest at the time. If uniform, that would add Dobell, Page, Paterson and Cowper to the existing haul of Parramatta, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro and Bennelong, which along with Dobell constituted the six NSW seats surveyed. In Victoria the lead has widened from 52-48 to 53-47, enough to add non-surveyed Gippsland to Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite and La Trobe (which were surveyed) and McEwen (which wasn’t). The lead in Queensland has narrowed from 54-46 to 53-47, which shifts Bowman back to the Coalition column while leaving Labor with the four surveyed seats of Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert along with non-surveyed Longman, Petrie and Flynn. In South Australia the lead increases from 54-46 to 56-44, adding non-surveyed Sturt to the four surveyed seats, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin and Boothby (which might be thought to be dragging down the average). That points to an overall gain of 29 seats: Mount Everest with 13 to spare.
The Channel Nine News tells us tomorrow’s Galaxy poll will point to 10 Labor gains in New South Wales, suggesting a swing of 6 to 7 per cent; three seats in South Australia, which could mean anything from 1 per cent to 5 per cent; three seats in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, meaning anything over 3 per cent; two seats in Queensland, meaning 3 per cent to 5 per cent; no change in Victoria, meaning a swing of less than 5 per cent, and no change in Western Australia, meaning zero or 1 per cent. Queensland is the surprise here; interestingly, the last Galaxy marginals poll also pointed to a disappointing result for Labor in Queensland.
The best chances for the Greens winning a lower house seat are after about 2 terms of a Rudd government when the latter has really alienated enough voters for them to split off to the left.
There are only about 4 seats where a Green win is even conceivable in the next 10 years – Sydney, Grayndler, Melbourne, Denison. By elections are a possibility.
There are also those seats where the Greens effectively stop the Libs winning the seat even if the libs outpoll the ALP – Melbourne Ports, Prahran at Vic state, Wentworth possibly in future.
449
Steven Kaye Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 12:09 am
“….What happened was that after Latham put out his book the journalists who had been cheering for him so fervently in 2004 decided to portray him as some sad psycho so that his writings wouldn’t damage their precious ALP…”
…….
But he was bonkers, Steven. That’s one of the reasons he lost in 2004. It just became more obvious after the election, his ‘invisble man” act after the tsunami and his bizarre resignation. His book just confirmed what was obvious to everyone: he’s cracked.
You’re trying to make a small-time martyr of Latham. I think you should save your efforts for someone who both needs and deserves the attention – maybe Kevin Andrews. He is clearly another hard-done-by, misunderstood, struggler who is being hounded by a cruel media pack.
Braddon primary: Labor 40, liberal 37 and Green 9.
And this interesting and telling line:
“Mr Howard might have hoped his takeover of the Mersey hospital in August might be enough for his Liberal candidate to hold on to one of the country’s most marginal seats.However medical experts said the takeover would cost lives.”
[Marko, where do you think the Greens would win their first lower house seat?]
Cunningham, 2001
The last sentence is the telling one:
“While it will be a very close race, Mr Ferguson is likely to lose his seat to Labor candidate and former Launceston City Council deputy mayor Jodie Campbell after just one term.”
If I was a Liberal MP facing a decade in opposition, I would go for a leader whose talent is for cynical, destructive, misrepresentation and smear. That’s what you need when you’re as far up a creek as the Libs are going to be. Costello doesn’t have the guts for it, and probably nor does Turnbull. Abbott does. He’s nasty and he’s ruthless – just what you need in opposition.
[Abbott does. He’s nasty and he’s ruthless – just what you need in opposition.]
But he’s got some of the Latham’s about him.
And he still has serious personal issues, such as figuring out if he is a human or a frog.
#492
Marko, it’s not so much that Labor needs the Greens in the Senate, as Australia needs the Greens in the Senate. Which is why I’ll probably vote for them in the upper house next week.
[ Do you really think that Abbott would be electable ]
I agree with Adam. The Libs will be realistic enough to realise who ever is Leader after an election loss will probably not be the same person to lead them into the next election. They’ll need someone who is tough enough to crack heads and pull them into line and is a good attack dog against a new PM on his honeymoon. I think Abbott would be a reasonably good choice.
blackburnpseph @ 501
It makes me wonder if the Greens won’t get ambitious enough to ask Labor for one of those seats – in 2010 or perhaps 2013. Or, if Turnbull does manage to squeak by, perhaps they’ll as Labor to stand aside and launch a full-throttle attack on it at the next election…
Shows On @ 481
Had they put Mia in to Boothby they would have almost guaranteed one seat rather that conceivably missing out on both. Thoughts?
How can 40% Labor, 38% Liberal, 18% Green be construed as “a very close race”? Has the Examiner never heard of preferences? That’s a Labor 2PP of nearly 60%. Not only will the Libs lose their two Reps seats, on those figures they’ll lose a Senate seat as well.
If i had a choice between holding Bass or Braddon id pick Bass, Michael Ferguson is a better performer than Barker and one who has good potential for the Party.
Mark Baker i don’t know much about but if i had a choice between the two i’d want Michael Ferguson still in Parliament.
Nighty Night all!
505
Adam Says:
Abbott does. He’s nasty and he’s ruthless – just what you need in opposition.
And completely unelectable. Perfect opposition leader, for Labor.
I don’t think people will be carrying baseball bats.
Chainsaws are more likely.
marktwain @ 507
I absolutely agree. But this is politics, and horse trading is part of the game. The Greens will be holding power – to use for Australia – but power will also be attractive to those who intend to keep power. That’s the position the ALP will be in after this election. And we’ll see on polling night that there are certain regions of the nation where Greens strength is growing. It won’t be getting any smaller in 2010, when we’re even deeper in various climate-related crises. Eventually, I reckon the deal will be made.
G’nite!
[How can 40% Labor, 38% Liberal, 18% Green be construed as “a very close race”? Has the Examiner never heard of preferences? That’s a Labor 2PP of nearly 60%. Not only will the Libs lose their two Reps seats, on those figures they’ll lose a Senate seat as well.]
Yes Adam that is correct. That is what i have been saying for a lont time.
The examiner is a biased piece of crap which won the media watch “Barra” award 2 years ago.
What will actually happen between the factions in the Liberal Party if/when they lose?
Marko
Get real, the ALP are not going to stand aside for the Greens. Look at how feral they got in the 2006 state election when it looked as though the Greens might win Melbourne.
It is about winning, they don’t stand aside. They don’t concede a free kick.
The coalition will have very little hope of winning an election in 2010. Who would want to volunteer for an inevitable defeat in 2010 in the hope of winning in 2013? Abbott would be too vain to make such a sacrifice.
Opposition leader will be something which will be thrust upon some unlucky survivor of the disaster of 2007.
Adam @506, that is precisely why I am hoping for Abbot to lose his seat.
[If i had a choice between holding Bass or Braddon id pick Bass, Michael Ferguson is a better performer than Barker and one who has good potential for the Party.]
Glen, Michael Ferguson is as far to the right as you can get. A religious nut job who was president of the “Tasmanian Families Association” or some such nonesense. Howard didn’t even want him preselected last time because he thought he was too extreme.
Just Me @514, I’d rather the Liberals come up with an unelectable ineffectual dinosaur like Bronnie or (chuckle) Tuckey. That’ll be about what they’ll have to choose from if my wildest dreams come true 🙂
[What will actually happen between the factions in the Liberal Party if/when they lose?]
NSW fundies will try to ban abortion, sex & drug education. The Liberals’ 2010 education policy will be based around intelligent design.
522
Blackbird Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 12:46 am
“[If i had a choice between holding Bass or Braddon id pick Bass, Michael Ferguson is a better performer than Barker and one who has good potential for the Party.] Glen, Michael Ferguson is as far to the right as you can get.”
….
Blackbird, I think the extremist tendencies are what Glen likes about Ferguson.
Perfect opposition leader, for Labor.
Meaning, perfect Coalition opposition leader, for Labor.
And I think the 2010 election will be interesting for the Greens. They could easily be the big winners in that one, especially if they conduct themselves well for the next term.
[Just Me @514, I’d rather the Liberals come up with an unelectable ineffectual dinosaur like Bronnie or (chuckle) Tuckey. That’ll be about what they’ll have to choose from if my wildest dreams come true]
My guess is Bronwyn Bishop will be the Liberals nomination for Speaker, thus making her a deputy.
If the Libs lose 1 senate seat at this election, and Nick Xenaphon wins a seat as an Ind, wouldnt this leave an even split (38 to 38) between LIB-NAT-CFF-FFP and ALP-AG-AD thus restoring some balance at least until July 2008.
Latest re Newhouse.
[ALP candidate George Newhouse has denied allegations that his nomination for the marginal seat of Wentworth is invalid.
Armed with a Queen’s counsel’s opinion, he said he had resigned from the NSW Consumer, Trader and Tenancy Tribunal before he nominated, although he claimed his resignation was not required under the relevant legislation.
He said that advice supplied by John McCarthy, QC, confirmed that his position on the tribunal automatically terminated when the Australian Electoral Commission accepted his nomination.
The opinion stated that there was no issue about Mr Newhouse having held an office for profit under the Crown after he lodged his nomination on October 30.
It stated: “At law, the allegation about his resignation letter is irrelevant as NSW law removes him from those offices from the moment of his nomination. The Newhouse resignation saga is therefore both inaccurate as to the facts and of no significance at law.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/alp-nomination-in-order-qc/2007/11/16/1194766965916.html
Blackbird @522
[Glen, Michael Ferguson is as far to the right as you can get. A religious nut job who was president of the “Tasmanian Families Association” or some such nonesense. Howard didn’t even want him preselected last time because he thought he was too extreme.]
That would be why Glen would want him elected! Is Glen an exclusive Bretheren Troll, and would would Catch the Fire think when it turns out that God told Danny lies about the rodent being re-elected, and ignored their prayers for the right election result?
[ The coalition will have very little hope of winning an election in 2010. Who would want to volunteer for an inevitable defeat in 2010 ]
Nothing is inevitable. Any number of things can happen. If interest rates keep rising or if the USA goes into recession and Australia follows, the Libs will will shout ” We told you so. Labor can’t handle the economy.” Any number of things could happen.
Old news I know but – Just love how the Morgan research showed that the LNP ads were no effective.
“Overall the electorate has been more ‘persuaded’ by ALP advertising than L-NP advertising ”
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4244/
[And I think the 2010 election will be interesting for the Greens. They could easily be the big winners in that one, especially if they conduct themselves well for the next term.]
Green issues are going to get more and more important.
I’m hoping for a scenario where the Liberals just sideline themselves from the environment debate making it a debate between the Greens and Labor.
If that happens the Liberals could be in oblivion for 10 – 15 years.
thus finally proving the theory of un-intelligent design 🙂
Just in case nobody knew, the Galaxy poll is up at the courier mail.
I also assume people have seen the taverner poll out tomorrow. I can’t be bothered looking back to check in comments.
Wow, look at the bidding go on this one..
http://cgi.ebay.com.au/John-Howard-Pinata_W0QQitemZ220171750001QQihZ012QQcategoryZ4107QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem#ebayphotohosting
[ Is Glen an exclusive Bretheren Troll ]
Glen is NOT religious except for his belief in the Demi God: John Winston Howard.
523
mad cow
That’ll be about what they’ll have to choose from if my wildest dreams come true.
Hope springs eternal.
I think it was Adam or someone, but I love the future where essentialy Labor and the Australian Labor Movement are the right party, with the left parties in official opposition. Would make for a much better future.
razzamatazz, don’t forget Family First.
OH, I should have added .. 38-38 is an effective veto in the senate.
paul k @ 531
[Any number of things could happen.]
Australia has no history since WW2 of one term governments. Any economic disaster could be effectively sheeted back to the coalitions previous policies or global factors beyond the ALP’s control.
The only possible loser would be Rudd taking Australia into an unpopular war.
Oh love the front page headline; My first 5 steps as PM
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/my-first-5-steps-as-pm/2007/11/17/1194767020799.html
mad cow I counted Family First (FFP) aligned to the LIB_NAT Block
Costello is the only one who could take it up to Rudd as PM. The demoralisation of defeat will be the issue. Abbott as liberal leader is an ALP dream – because he couldn’t win – too undisciplined, too easy a target. Who knows, Rudd PM may not be invincible (none are after a while!). However, Costello as treasurer will carry very little political baggage – times have been good.
He has three characteristics which may contribute to his undoing:
1: He appears to be thin skinned – and as PM he will be a big target
2: The smarty pants factor – sooner or later he will piss people off (and in my belief, it will turn suddenly and there will be no way back)
3: He appears to micro manage – will stepover into ministers portfolios – it will cause resentment but its not good management – it was also one of Malcolm Frasers downfalls.
If he wins handsomely, as appears the case, he has 6 years.
[Oh love the front page headline; My first 5 steps as PM
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/my-first-5-steps-as-pm/2007/11/17/119476%5D
Great thing for Rudd to get into the Sunday papers. Team Labor are in the groove now, Rudd is racing for the finish line. Howard seems disorganised in comparison.
[Wow, look at the bidding go on this one..
http://cgi.ebay.com.au/John-Howard-Pinata_W0QQitemZ220171750001QQihZ012QQcategoryZ4107QQssPageNameZ%5D
OK, I’ll link to MY ebay auctions:
http://search.ebay.com.au/_W0QQsassZshowson
532
kina quotes……….
“Overall the electorate has been more ‘persuaded’ by ALP advertising than L-NP advertising ”
Famous for “Where do ya get it ” Singo………you’ve done it again.
Interesting… the first 5 steps don’t include workplace reform.
533
ShowsOn Says:
Green issues are going to get more and more important.
That is the understatement of the year. I have followed the science on environmental issues for over 20 years, and almost all the important measures of environmental health are going critical. Crunch time is ‘a coming, and real soon.
[mad cow I counted Family First (FFP) aligned to the LIB_NAT Block]
WITH the exception that they will vote with Labor to get rid of WorkChoices.