• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.
• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.
• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,
• John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.
• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.
• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.
• Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.
• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.
Coalition support was 39% (unchanged from the telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 7/8), while ALP primary support was 48% — up 3.5% from the telephone Morgan Poll.
To put you all out of your misery, it’s been linked from Morgan’s front page for about an hour, F2F Nov 10/11:
Primary ALP 48, Lib 39.5
2PP ALP 56.5, Lib 43.5
Cheers,
Wok
I never said Kroger was a reasonable commentator, just an articulate one.
And the reason why I’m saying NSW is that’s the most likely state where Libs are going to retire from safe seats. If (still a big if) the Libs lose the election, they would want people like him to rebuild the party. They’d probably guarantee him a shadow cabinet position in the process…
Swing Lowe, I’ve always been critical of the Liberal campaign too. I always thought ‘Go for Growth’ was a dud. What does it even mean? However I think they’ve been marginally better (very marginally). For instance, whilst I morally disagree with their local campaigning (eg. we’ll fix graffiti and hoons, Labor’s soft on crime etc) I think it’s probably going to be effective on the people they’re aiming it at… they disinterested undecided people.
I just keep getting the feeling Labor’s not exactly inspiring people to vote for them. In 1983 the ALP had the Franklin dams didn’t they? That was something really to vote for.
This is interesting, from Morgan:
“On Sunday, we will be releasing two special voting intention Morgan Polls:
2. “A special telephone poll conducted in 22 marginal Coalition seats — the results of the marginal L-NP seat poll will show whether the Coalition has any chance of retaining these seats — critical in determining who wins Government.”
Kroger World Today
[This is interesting, from Morgan:
“On Sunday, we will be releasing two special voting intention Morgan Polls:
2. “A special telephone poll conducted in 22 marginal Coalition seats — the results of the marginal L-NP seat poll will show whether the Coalition has any chance of retaining these seats — critical in determining who wins Government.”]
I think Peter Hartcher on 7:30 Report last night said this was going to appear in their Sunday Fairfax papers.
from the HUN @ http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22768912-661,00.html
“A MAN has been arrested after rushing towards the stage where Prime Minister John Howard was giving a speech.
Mr Howard had just begun making an address at the Adelaide Convention Centre when a man stood up from the audience and ran towards the stage.
The man – who was carrying an object that appeared to be a basket – was tackled by Federal Police just metres from the stage.
As he was dragged towards a police car outside the convention centre, the man said he had been using a pooper scooper to “collect non-core promises.” ”
now that’s funny!
GP
Laissez-Faire Economic Fundamentalism doesn’t work. Neither does communism. Both are two extremes that Australia should stay away from. THE MARKET IS NOT INFALLIABLE. It is driven by disparity, which sometimes gets out of hand, and this is where the Government must step in.
What is the point of a strong economy if it doesn’t deliver a dividend for all???
ALP Maintains Big Lead Over Coalition
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4245/
Morgan (I know, I KNow)
ALP Maintains Big Lead Over Coalition
——————————————————————————–
Federal Poll : Finding No. 4245 : November 16, 2007
On November 10/11, the weekend after the interest rate rise but before the L-NP’s official campaign launch in Brisbane, Coalition support was 39% (unchanged from the telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 7/8), while ALP primary support was 48% – up 3.5% from the telephone Morgan Poll. With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 56.5% (up 0.5%), L-NP 43.5% (down 0.5%). If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a landslide, the latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll finds. Full article.
Mr Squiggle:
From the Bennelong thread if you are reading.
I give you 2 further links for your own research.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-great-deceiver-is-in-a-class-of-his-own/2007/11/12/1194766588117.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_overboard
[‘It was later found by Senate inquiry that the “Children Overboard” claim was untrue and that the government knew this prior to the election.’]
LTEP,
The whole point of the Labor campaign has been to show themselves to be a “safe pair of hands for the economy”. This sort of theme doesn’t exactly lend itself to ‘inspiring’ moments or policies. However, in the current environment, it’s probably the right course towards getting elected.
Need I remind you all that in 2004, Latham tried to have ‘inspiring’ policies – Medicare Gold and the Tassie Forestry policy. What vote-winners they both were!
If Ecuyer wimps out of following through on the Overington affair, we ca assume she has done all this for publicity and a lynching would be the most appropriate response.
“Mr Newhouse’s campaign was boosted yesterday when his former girlfriend and independent candidate for the seat, Danielle Ecuyer, released a split how-to-vote card, with one version favouring Mr Newhouse and one version favouring Mr Turnbull.
Yesterday the Australian Electoral Commission asked her for a statement on her claim that a journalist, Caroline Overington of The Australian, had offered a front-page story in return for directing her preferences to Mr Turnbull. It said the statement might go to federal police in any inquiry. But she said involving federal police was a big step she was not prepared to contemplate until after the election.”
[The whole point of the Labor campaign has been to show themselves to be a “safe pair of hands for the economy”. This sort of theme doesn’t exactly lend itself to ‘inspiring’ moments or policies. However, in the current environment, it’s probably the right course towards getting elected.
Need I remind you all that in 2004, Latham tried to have ‘inspiring’ policies – Medicare Gold and the Tassie Forestry policy. What vote-winners they both were!]
Yep, Latham “SCared the Horses”, which Rudd has avoided. Also Rudd has captured the “Austereo Vote” by appearing on FM Radio and Rove Live, which makes him “Hip & Groovy”.
Howard on the other hand has stuck to Grandpa AM Talk.
Well i just finished making up my bingo cards for the 24th from adam’s candidates picks. there are 3 winning cards, the rest are a mix match. At $5 a card I will sell 50 with a guarenteed 3 prizes. It should be a hoot!!!
Oh the prizes are 1 bottle champagne and 2 bots quality sparkling.
Make a nice $200 for the branch.
[GP
Laissez-Faire Economic Fundamentalism doesn’t work. Neither does communism. Both are two extremes that Australia should stay away from. THE MARKET IS NOT INFALLIABLE. It is driven by disparity, which sometimes gets out of hand, and this is where the Government must step in.
What is the point of a strong economy if it doesn’t deliver a dividend for all???]
Don’t try arguments on him, they don’t work.
His head starts to hurt, forcing him to have a nap.
Swing Lowe… I don’t really buy into the don’t scare the horses theory. I think you can make big policy announcements and differentiate yourself without scaring. You just have to do it in a very populous way.
I don’t think Medicare Gold was sold well at all. Noone knew what it was. Similarly, the Tassie Forestry policy was sold extremely poorly. It wasn’t marketed right for the mainland and stupidly threw away seats they already had. To me, the ’04 election was only slightly poorer campaigning than this one.
In the end though, if Labor pull off the win it won’t matter what they did during the campaign, everyone will think it was a good one.
421-Amen to that Clarence. Anyone who think AL will pay out is in for a very rude shock. Nor forgetting he is bankrupt at the moment too. A shyster of the absolute lowest quality. It wouldnt surprise me if one of the regular Tory posters to this site is really AL.
LTEP (390) If you go back over the last few posts from Isabella you’ll get a few more words for the swear jar.
People paid $3.00 per hour in dive industry.
Workplace Rights Ombudsman Don Brown said the industry would be in need of “serious attention” if the complaints were found to be true.
“I have received allegations that some trainees are paid as little as $30 for a 10-hour day,” Mr Brown said.
“In one case in particular a Cairns dive operator engaged ‘dive industry internees’ for $30 a day, supplemented by on-site training.
“A condition of the the agreement was that ‘public holidays, Saturdays, Sundays and overtime are not granted … they are provided for in your allowances and courses’.”
Mr Brown said the investigation would begin in Cairns on December 10 with a series of interviews with employers and workers during the week.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/dive-industry-trainees-paid-3-an-hour/2007/11/16/1194766925064.html
‘Lose the election please’ you don’t get it about the campaign, when the election was called Labor was well out in front and it didn’t/doesn’t have to run a brilliant campaign the Liberals had to run a brilliant campaign and they’ve fallen well short of the mark. Their adds only appeal to their rusted on supporters and are mostly a curiosity to the average punter who doesn’t think Labor will “stuff things up” (such profanity tut tut).
Labors campaign has been brilliant in it’s simplicity and effectiveness just look at the polls.
Has Edward St John posted a link to his ‘blog’ anywhere yet?
joel fitzgibbons debating brendan nelson on sky. use the link off news.com.au page
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4245/
Kroger.
Bounce. Will happen next week.
Best manager. PM did not make mistake on promising so much money. Labor’s policies are unbelievable, no one believes them.
Re Barnaby Joyce, annihilation. No, he was wrong.
Courtice. Well respected. Kevin Rudd no credentials.
Sciacca. Re ‘Kev to go on Rove, re turning gay. Possibly considering becoming Hugh Jackman’
Kroger. Rudd too gutless to front up for proper grilling, say by Cassidy.
LOL, I see the thread has been derailed yet again. I’m damned if I know why you guys continually bite at GP’s taunts, it is merely baiting you or it is intellectually slower than a herd of turtles stampeding through a vat of chunky peanut butter. Either way what’s the point.
Morgan or not is still good to see 56.5/43.5 🙂
Betamax,
To answer your question, Yes I support anybody earning a “living wage”, I just dont believe you need a system which directly costs about $200mill to do it (not to mention the indirect costs).
#472 Apparently it was ditched because sources close to ESJ wouldn’t abide the name-change they were trying to impose on him. I kid you not Asanque.
404 Sean
couldn’t agree more!!!
A well known phrase thrown in for free – not necessarily connected
“Never argue with an idiot, they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”
LTEP,
I think Labor had realised from well before this campaign that any “very populist” big policies have either been monopolised by the Coalition (see the NT intervention) or would have opened Labor up to charges by the Coalition of being economically irresponsible (see Medicare Gold for a key example).
I’m betting the Coalition realised this as well (as did most of the MSM commentators), which explains why JWH stuck around last year – he expected to cruise to victory, as Labor seemed to be trapped in an unwinnable position.
What the Coalition (nor anyone else) didn’t count on was the rise of an extraordinarily popular opposition leader (which has been the real driver of Labor’s lead in the polls) to whom no dirt would stick. The Coalition still hasn’t got its head around this problem and I doubt it will by next Saturday.
I have seen the future – it is written by Nostradamus – very scary and one of his more accurate predictions….be afraid..
Nostradamus Quatrain 34 – Anno Domini – 2nd Millenium
Verse 16:
In the distant southern great land
The princely serpant with wavering tongue shall rise,
The wheelwright’s son of complete ordinariness,
Will vanqish the noveau proletariat – his name : Johward
Verse 17:
For a decade and 1, he will rule unchallenged;
Subservient only to a distant King and Queen of foreign land
He will banish the wretched moor on the water to the desolate land
Denial of world heating with fear and greed he shall rule
With new tax the proletariat and they will feast on the Pork and be happy,
Verse 18
From the rural and oriental Rudvin shall rise with Sun Tzu,
Of similar blandness with difference shall decimate Joward’s forces to 3 score + 1,
His barren Princess assigned will lance his heart in Bene-Lon
Held in high esteem, Joward’s legacy tarnished thereafter
384 G Person-Dont think, do!
Also, Im still waiting to hear about your promised sacrifice.
For all you Adelaidians I just heard an ad that Nicole Cornes will be featuring on 5AA with “arch enemy” Amanda Blair form after 1. Should be interesting…..
poor old Morgan, closest to primaries in 2004 and yet no-one will take him seriously.
Coalition at 39.5%, sounds good to me.
Ah well… I still stand by my opinion that the ALP has run a poor campaign. Perhaps it’s just the year-long faux campaign but I just find myself annoyed by Rudd more often than pleased. Of course Howard’s worse… but people have bought Howard 4 times now so obviously I’m missing something other people are seeing.
Perhaps I’m just that out of touch that I can’t pick a winner!
56.5 / 43.5
Ltep at post 434 says: “…. if Labor win it will be despite their campaign rather than because of it. There’s really been nothing to it. In one year’s time I bet you none of us will remember what Labor’s main campaign point was… the Liberals it’s easy. Don’t trust the unions…”
Labor’s is easy too: “Don’t trust John Howard, he’s got form”.
There. Not so hard, was it?
[To answer your question, Yes I support anybody earning a “living wage”, I just dont believe you need a system which directly costs about $200mill to do it (not to mention the indirect costs).]
So that means you’ll vote against WorkChoices which has greatly increased the level of government intervention into I.R.
Just got my letter re doing Booth duties in Pearce on Election Day 🙂
The Victory Party which is the combined Hasluck/Pearce event will be at the old Midland Railway Workshops – which was one of Richard Courts first act in closing, when he became WA Premier.
The Irony is delicious 🙂
ShowsOn 487
Woof Woof!
488 Boll: Or was it because he was too left wing?:P
[ShowsOn 487
Woof Woof!]
You have nothing intelligent to say either.
Why is it that all Liberals have completely given up this week?
LTEP when it comes to election campaigns it’s not about how you play the game but whether you win or loses. Beazly ran a great campaign in 98 and 04 but thats not what he’ll be remembered for, poor bugger.
Frank
What is the goss re Pearce, outside chance or possible gain.
ShowsON 491
Woof Woof!
Shows on
Because they’re stuffed and they know it.
[ShowsON 491
Woof Woof!]
You’re hilarious. I’m not surprised your the calibre of writer that gets a blog at The Oz.
I was one of the many people expecting that a Howard wedge of some sort, plus the gradual fade of the extended honeymoon for a popular and effective new leader, would make this election a very tight contest. But I’m now ready to take off my emotional armour-I’m now highly confident Labor will win. All of the objective data-polls, betting markets, the leaders movements and campaign tactics-point to a Labor win. There is probably just a hint of a narrowing, but you’d have to expect a Labour TPP of no lower than 53% based on all the data.
And 16 seats isn’t that big an ask. There are about 12 absolutely certain Labor wins-all the seats on low margins that fall if it just goes back to a 50/50 TPP, excepting Stirling and Solomon, which may not be certain, but adding Dobell and Blair, which need a bit more, but which the betting markets have as safe Labor wins based in guess on demographic shifts and weak incumbents. After that, there are least 14 really hot prospects from which Labor needs to get just 4. Plus there are any number of “long shots” from which Labor might pull one or two more surprise wins. I very much doubt we will see Labor win 90+, I still think that’s fantasy stuff, but a seat tally in the low 80’s will do just fine.
Labor’s campaign, IMO, has been outstanding. Disciplined, with effective counter-punching to every Liberal thrust.
But can the more extreme Labor supporters on this blog lay off some of the over-the-top rubbish about Howard being a dictator, a Nazi and all the other juvenile crap. And leave his wife and the other personal stuff out of it too. Treat your opponents with respect and stick to factual arguments and you’ll win more converts. Let Labor sit in the moderate centre while the other mob hurl insults from their little bastion on the far right, that’s exactly where Rudd wants them.
[Shows on
Because they’re stuffed and they know it.]
You can tell based on the standard of ESJ’s replies.
It sums up their entire campaign.