D-day minus 8

• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.

• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.

• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.

• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,

John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.

• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.

• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.

Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.

• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

641 comments on “D-day minus 8”

Comments Page 13 of 13
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  1. I very deliberately nominated North Sydney for my “biggest swing” prediction.

    Mr Bailey is in with a real shot.

    I spent an hour in Kirribilli this morning handing out pamphlets – and only got three people who gave even the slightest bit of “pro-Johny” niggle. In Kirribilli I repeat.

  2. I’m in North Sydney and I have said for some time that it will be closer than anyone in the MSM has seriously suggested thus far (I’m doing my bit on E-Day). I certainly wouldn’t call it for Mike yet but he is a real chance, much more than probably even he suspected when he signed up.

    Watching Hockey scramble for votes is hilarious, given that the only thing I’ve ever seen of him over the last 11 years is an annual fridge magnet and a few flyers in the mail come mandate renewal time.

  3. LTEP

    I respect and understand your caution, but at the same time I think Labor can be legitimately confident by now. Australians don’t like hubris and Rudd and all other candidates should be humble and careful, but really lets look at the week ahead:

    – Monday should see a newspoll published with the reaction to Rudd’s launch
    – Haneef’s appeal will be in court, with an attorney general in caretaker mode unable to gag any embarrassing revelations
    – Abbott’s remarks will haunt him all week, because they are on film, and relate to a key element of the Coalition’s strategy
    – banks will gradually pass on the interest rate rise, just to remind people
    – Howard has no more money to spend without looking inflationary
    – by Friday it will be too late

    Here are my views of Howard’s best options to turn around the last week:
    – publish evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard
    – invent evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard (that can’t be disproven till after Saturday)
    – black out reporting of the count and have young liberals stuff the ballot boxes
    – military coup

  4. tdt I’m at SCEGGS study hall, whatever that is. 213 Military Rd, from 1pm.

    bird I guess if the big swing is on, North Sydney has to be high on the list of bolters. Particularly if WorkChoices is biting as hard as I think it is. Joe being such a classy turd polisher when it comes to that bit of policy. However, I claim no local knowledge. I’m actually from Grayndler, but Albanese clearly doesn’t need my help. I also used to work with Mike, back in his ATN7 days. He is seriously smart, and one of nature’s gentlemen too. He stood out in the TV industry, that’s for sure.

  5. Hi Crispy

    yes, I am temporarily working in Canberra but back to sydney for election day. Will be handing out HTV cards in Wentworth….

    Hey, also mike is good looking…

  6. Gillard responds to Mad Monk’s “Doctoring” claims.

    [The Labor Party has rejected claims it edited a video of Health Minister Tony Abbott talking about WorkChoices.

    In the video, Mr Abbott says WorkChoices has removed protection for workers.

    But he says the video has been edited in a misleading way to distort his comments and he blames Labor.

    But Labor deputy leader Julia Gillard says it is Mr Abbot who is twisting the truth.

    “What appears on that tape is what Mr Abbott said. There has been nothing done to that tape, it appears as Mr Abbott said it, with the words coming out of his mouth that he said and he meant,” he said.]


  7. Imagine if Howard and costello both lose. They will just keep looking down the list. They will try and give the leadership to Downer who willl shake his head and say “I’ve had it before and i don’t want it again”. Suddenly Turnbull will reach across and say I’ll take that, but then Abbot will say “not so fast” shaking his finger, “we will vote for it”. Then all the rest of the liberals still standing will shout at Abbott “you idiot, it’s all your fault”.
    Meanwhile while everyones backs are turned the Nationals will have crept out and gone to set up shop elsewhere.

  8. Just on North Sydney, I think a significant factor in the huge projected swing is the higher-than-average education level of the electorate, which focuses attention on the intellectual bankruptcy of the government and relentless negativity of their campaigning that much more.

  9. From Crikey Tips and Rumours re lack of Westpoll.

    [Talk down at the Swamp (The West’s HQ) is that the Editor is once again sitting on some polling data. The Federal Westpoll has yet to be published despite having been with him for over a week now. Readers might recall that the editor has previously forgotten to publish Westpoll results that showed the ALP doing well. Journo’s believe the failure to publish the Westpoll means the Editor doesn’t
    like the results – could be bad news for the Liberals in WA.]

    Sounds about right.

  10. That attack on Bob Debus has already been run in the east of the Electorate (Blue Mountains Gazette) and went flatter than a pancake. Bob was using his Balmain base during the week to be close to his Ministerial office and then back to Leura at the weekends and often during the week. We certainly saw lots of him up here. Of course the Liberal candidate has been spending a lot of his time in Canberra, of all places, instead of spending all his time in the lower mountains!

  11. #
    tdt Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 2:54 pm

    Rates Analyst, Crispy,

    Same electorate – different booth. I’m at the Uniting Church on the corner of Shirley and Nicholson from 12 noon on the 24th. And word is Mike is not the worst bet going around.


    Hey, that makes four of us in North Sydney! I will be at Mowbray West Public School in Lane Cove. Go Mike!!

  12. 560
    Socrates Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 2:13 pm

    “Has anyone read any of the details of the regional program audit report yet? Never mind the nepotism, get a load of the inefficiency.”

    The outstanding piece of foolery I’ve seen this year was a federal grant to build a “golf-course” from Kalgoorlie to South Australia…..some kind of stupidity, not a lot of money, but real….

  13. Scotty, we’re taking over the party! We’ll have to use the PollBludger war cry to join into a flying wedge formation and storm the bar…

  14. 609
    centaur_007 Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 3:11 pm

    “Imagine if Howard and costello both lose.”

    A dream come true, centaur, along with Downer, Andrews, Abbott, Ruddock. Yhey deserve to get a thorough kicking, but even I guess it’s too much to expect.

  15. Will, why is your partner said to see the LIberals go? You would have to be very one eyed to see for the country its a good thing – like more than ever before there is merit in other people’s issues with the govt eg: Far right IR strategy – maybe she needs to read some more independent information

  16. 617
    Will Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 3:34 pm

    blindoptimist: I remember that. The world’s largest golf course isn’t it?

    Yes, a totally half-arsed idea. There are so many things a government could do with our money and this sounds like one of the more hair-brained.

  17. Reminder Adelaide listeners.

    Nicole on 5AA at 3.30. Amanda Blair.

    Watch your back, Nic. In fact don’t even turn it..they put up a mock interview just after 1pm, making you out to be dumb as and making reference to your boobs!


    Amanda is a fat evil jealous cow.

  18. bird: Firstly, I’m gay, so partner is a he (but thanks for not making an assumption). I tried to imply that out of all the gay men at the Laird that night, my partner will be one of the few gay men there who will be upset that Howard is gone. My partner is from a well off family and has never liked Labor, says he is a swinger but is very much a Liberal voter. We don’t talk politics. In fact he is very anti-political actually, and isn’t engaged in the debate at all. He did the Oz Politics quiz and it came up saying he should vote Family First and One Nation of all parties. The news.com.au one said he should vote Labor and he said “WTF?”

    On the other hand, I came from a working-class family who struggled to put food on the table. I got through uni and studied maths and physics, ended up getting a job in IT and within the 9 years of working I’ve even worked overseas and now making a very decent salary. My partner has never finished school, including 2 attempts at grade 12. He is bright, but doesn’t engage in things that much. Sadly I do think he is one of those people who goes in to the polling booth without even knowing any of the policies.

  19. There are a lot of gay people on pollbludger, hence why we get so many witty remarks. My point is that the libs have done everything they can to stop gay people from getting rights so purely on that point if nothing else he should not be voting Liberal and not call to Australia or pornography first either!

    (by the way not gay myself but lots of gay friends)

  20. Interesting Will – yes, its interesting about how people form their views. The real ideologues of the Right I just have nothing in common with on a values basis, but for alot of other people who vote Liberal they never questions the assumptions of their world view – Because I am interested in politics, values, ramifications for othe people, I would find it difficult to have a partner that did not want toengagewith that and also have their views open to debate, independent information – intelllectual honesty re: values outcome of certain spots on the spectrum etc – If it were me, i would certainly be trying to educate him..but that’s just me or challenge his world view. What I can say that if he were an ideologue, then you would not have much incommon. Some people are for elitist societies…anti egaliarian etc…….

  21. Anyone hear Vaile’s attempts to counter the auditor’s findings today?

    Sad…..very sad…..

    and more than a little pathetic.


  22. bird: I know, but I love him, and that is what counts. All I’ve asked him to do is look at the facts, not go blindly. I let my friends influence him. 😉

  23. Debate on Skynews

    Shut Coonans up. She is so rude interrupting & talking over everybody. This is not a debate. I work in telecommunications & she is telling fibs.

  24. Actually blindoptimist, if you’re in here, one thing that is swaying my partner’s vote away from the Libs is Coonan. He work for Telstra and he thinks she s*cks! Her decisions about high-speed broadband has got him very annoyed. See, she is good for something

  25. ugh Coonan. The Cabinet is inhabited by some pretty unsavory characters, but Coonan isn’t out-awfulled by many. The fact she’s guaranteed another six years feeding in the trough is depressing.

  26. Shock Horror: Jess Diaz, brother of the lovely, pouting Miss Universe 1969, seeking to represent Chifley in the Liberal interest at the forthcoming election actually lives within the boundaries of the Electoral Division of Parramatta.

    Doesn’t matter, he has no chance, Price will get around 58%-60% of the primary vote anyway. I live in Chifley and I haven’t yet found 1 person who’s going to vote for the Liberals.

  27. Coonan is a sad joke, I live on the Gold Coast, 6th biggest city in Oz and still can’t get ADSL2, why oh why do we even give her the luxury title Minister of Communication or whatever she is this week.

  28. Sportingbet has Coalition @ $3.60 tonight, out from $3.35 this morning. Looks as though the crappers haven’t relieved the pressure!

  29. Whether anyone likes the Morgan poll, the fact is today’s figures are in line with the long term break of about 55/45 the aggregate of all the polls has been showing all year, so I am prepared to accept it as accurate. All we need now is the Morgan poll on marginals (Sunday) and a Newspoll on Monday to confirm there has been no narrowing and its all over red rover.

    There was a previous post with a lift from Crikey about the West Australian sitting on a Westpoll. I suspect it may be in tomorrow (Saturday) as they ran the last Westpoll figures on a Saturday a few weeks ago. If so I (or I am sure someone will) post the figures here.

  30. Interesting Newspoll numbers with SA and NSW coming back towards the Liberals while WA and QLD not moving while Victoria is moving towards the ALP.

    All up I think the Liberals will do well to get above 45% TPP, but history shows the ALP tend to improve over the last week of the campaign.

    I’m tipping with seat predictions to come later in the week ALP 55.3 Liberal/ Nationals 44.7

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