Advertiser poll: 51-49 to Liberal in Sturt

Word in comments is that an Adelaide Advertiser poll from Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt has been previewed on Tony Delroy’s “what the papers say” segment on ABC Radio. The poll, presumably conducted from the Advertiser’s usual 700-plus sample, shows Pyne with a narrow lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred. This follows this morning’s ABC poll of 297 respondents which had Pyne’s lead at 55-45. The existing margin is 6.8 per cent.

UPDATE: The Advertiser reports:

The two-party preferred vote is now 51-49 in Mr Pyne’s favour, tightening from 52-48 in a previous poll on October 3. Ms Handshin also recorded a strong rise in her primary vote from 35 per cent to 38 per cent. Mr Pyne is steady at 44 per cent … The Advertiser poll shows just 6 per cent of voters in Sturt remain undecided.


Ms Handshin has been described this week by senior Labor powerbrokers as “a revelation” during the campaign and she is destined to become a long-term project for the party. The law graduate, former AdelaideNow blogger and former Advertiser columnist, 29, is earmarked by party officials for another tilt at the federal arena. They will not rule out considering her for a state seat such as Norwood, should Vini Ciccarello decide to call it quits at the 2010 state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

82 comments on “Advertiser poll: 51-49 to Liberal in Sturt”

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  1. Portlandbet has ALP steady in Sturt at $2.25. Seats that have firmed in the last four hours include Macarther $3.20 to $3.10, Longman $2.50 to $2.45 and McMillan $2.00 to $1.97. Page currently at $1.90. Petrie and Corangamite both at $1.95.

  2. Does anyone have any idea why The Australian is leading with the story that Bishop is going to set the core curriculum? This is just a copy of a Labor policy that was announced 6 months ago.

    The bigger story of the day was of course the auditor generals report into government rorts, and Tony Abbott admitting that WorkChoices rips off workers.

  3. Where would we be without old Monty Python sketches?

    Rat Recipes

    Rat Pie:

    Take four medium-sized rats and lay them on the chopping board. Having first made sure the chopper is freshly sharpened, raise it as far above the first rat as you can. Make sure that the rat’s neck is well exposed, then bring the chopper down with as much force as possible onto the neck or head of the rat. Then cook it in a pie.

    Rat Souffle:

    Make sure that the rat’s squeals are not audible from the street, particularly in areas where the Anti-Souffle League and similar do-gooders are out to persecute the innocent pleasures of the table. Anyway, cut the rat down and lay it on the chopping board. Raise the chopper high above your head, with the steel glinting in the setting sun, and then bring it down – wham! – with a vivid crunch – straight across the taut neck of the terrified rodent, and make it into a souffle.

    Rat Stew:

    This recipe is slightly more difficult, and does require preparation. You must first take a bottle of fresh red wine (a Cabernet-Sauvignon is favoured by most chefs), and a mixture of fresh garden herbs. The latter should be chopped finely and heated gently in the wine until the rich aroma of thyme and basil permeates the air and tantallizes your taste-buds. This will eventually become the marinade, and should be cooled down in the fridge until needed. Then, take a small to medium sized rat for each person to be fed. Take a pair of nail clippers or other tiny scissors and trim back the hair on the rat’s neck. Swiftly strike a sharp nail through the centre of the dehaired area, watching as it glints menacingly in the light of the first full moon. Suck in the intoxicating scent of terror as the rat screams and convulses its helpless limbs. Take a wooden skewer and ram it quickly down the awaiting throat of the rodent; twist and withdraw to clear its intestines. Then take the sharpest knife in the kitchen and hold it above the rat’s weary carcass – savour this moment! It represents the infinite servitude of vermin under man! And bring down the knife with a sweeping motion. Then marinate and stew.

    Bits Of Rat Hidden Under A Chair:

    This isn’t so much a recipe as a bit of advice in the event of members of the Anti-Souffle League or its simpering lackeys breaking into your flat. Your wife (or a friend’s) should engage the pusillanimous toadies from the League in conversation, perhaps turning the chat to the price of corn and the terrible damage inflicted by all kinds rodents on personal property, and rats attacking small babies (this always takes the steam out of them) and you should have time to get any rat-bits safely out of sight. Incidentally, do make sure that your current copy of ‘The Rat Gourmet’ hasn’t been left lying around, otherwise it will all be in vain, and the braying hounds of the culinary killjoys will be unleashed upon the things that you cherish: your chopping-board, the chopper caught in the blood-red glare of the fading sun. Bring it down – crunch! The slight splintering of tiny spinal column under the keen metal! The last squeal and the death twitches of the helpless rat!

    Signing off…

  4. I too will sign off now, but leave a final remark for the night.

    The beauty of the Rudd campaign is that he has taken the debate to economics in the final week. Howard is playing along thinking it’s too good to be true.

    Well it is. There is overwhelming evidence that Howard has more support for economic matters but that is not going to change votes anymore than it has already achieved.

    So Rudds line is “why not spend the last week on that topic if it distracts Howard from finding a Tampa or some other massive last minute wedge. Let him think the unions are bad ads are working and talking about the economy will help him win votes.”

    That my friends is why this election is over, put a carton in the fridge, Alex P Keaton has left the building.

  5. the thing about ACN is:

    Primary 47
    TPP 54

    Primary 43
    TPP 46

    that means the minors split 7 to 3

    There is no more vote to go the Coalitions way. They have already soaked up all the Rightwing vote.

  6. [Women Voters: Pyne 46 Handshin 41
    Male voters: Pyne 37 Handshin 41]

    I wonder who this mysterious third party is, courting 9 percent of male voters?

  7. William Bowe Says:
    March 21st, 2006 at 11:32 am
    Thanks Antony, I’ve corrected it.

    You may be right Darryl, but that’s not how I remember it. Perhaps Bob Brown was not the culprit and it was the party more generally, which has more than its share of excitable young enthuasiasts. I’m thinking in particular of the talk that they might win a Senate seat in the ACT – they didn’t and never will.

    This appears to contradict you’re recent comments William.

  8. Good to see the Labor primary vote holding firm on 47%. But 43% for the coalition. That’s the highest it’s been all year isn’t it?

  9. The LNP’s actual primary vote has always come in a few points lower than the AC Nielsen poll. The ALP primary in the poll has always been close to the actual vote. There being positives for Rudd and negatives for Howard you would not think Labor would do worse than the last three elections as far as the Nielsen polls went. If the same pattern is followed the final primary votes would be something like 47/41 TPP 55.5/44.5

  10. “Considering this is Adelaide to get 51-49 to the Tories is a good result”

    No Glen, the Liberals have ruled this state convincingly for the past 14 years, and the fact that Sturt and Boothby are even getting mentioned is a terrible result. The only guaranteed seat Labor have had for many years now (excluding the abolished Bonython) has been Port Adelaide. By contrast the Liberals have had 5-6 guaranteed seats at every election, this is a very bad result.

  11. Mornin funsters

    this is consistent with the narrowing theorem thrown about by the righties

    too bad it actually applies to labor narrowing in 10% swing seats

    maybe 17 seats to the coalition is a tad optimistic

    ps mia has this one in the bag methinks

  12. IMHO Sturt will not fall unless a Rudd slide is on in SA as it is in QLD and in that scenario you could have JC himself stand for the Liberals and he would be beaten, along with South Who ? in Boothby- although I think now Boothby is the 4th in SA.

  13. I’m very confident we won’t know the result of Sturt on election night, unless the coalition really explodes in the last week. The fact that this electorate is so close to going under quite simply means the end is nigh for the Howard government.

  14. Also I think Crikey Whitey asked a question yesterday about the youth vote in Sturt; I don’t know the exact stats, but I’d be quite certain the youth vote is considerably less than neigbouring Adelaide. Most uni students would live in Adelaide rather than Sturt. There may be some on the fringes of Sturt, and ones that live at home with their wealthy parents in the inner eastern suburbs.

    So I don’t think the youth vote is the most important demographic in Sturt, by any means. Would be a reasonable number of young professionals 25-35, and a fair older population as well.

  15. Good luck to Mia. I’ve found her performances on ABC local 891 to be very disappointing, however. The polls are narrowing in SA apparently, so it will need a decent push to win Sturt still.

  16. Anyone else notice that in the paper it lists the six candidates and then Indep/Other, even though there is no other… (only 6 nominations in sturt)

    More quality advertiser polling there..

    from the actual paper,

    Cand, total, (Male, Female)
    Mia 38 (40, 37)
    Pyne 44 (41, 46)
    Dems 2 (2, 2)
    Greens 5 (6, 3)
    LDP 1 (1, 1)
    Indep, other (who dont exist..) 2 (2,2)
    Undecided 6, (5,7)

    ALP 49

  17. Phil – I was going to make that point. Yes, Mia does get the donkey vote in this seat and if the gap closes further in the next week it might be enough to just get her over the line.

    I hope so – I have some money on her to win 😉

  18. Someone in the press gallery has done some research and found that John Howard has lost the last week in the last 4 elections. Even the 2004 which was a disaster for the ALP. Before this one starts its a disaster for the Liberals.

  19. [I’m very confident we won’t know the result of Sturt on election night, unless the coalition really explodes in the last week. The fact that this electorate is so close to going under quite simply means the end is nigh for the Howard government.]

    I’d enjoy Pyne losing more than seeing even Howard or Turnbull lose.

  20. Mia has appeal in sturt being a former liberal, I like the way Rann jumped in to associate himself with her after todays poll. IMHO she will miss out because in the end she’s just another smarmy twat and no stormy normy. Ironically, the green candidate is the one with ALP pedigree. Rudd will win comfortably without Sturt, we wouldn’t want a don’s party repeat where Rudd won Sturt in lost, as Normy did in 69.

  21. former liberal?

    I C Moore either your mindlessly repeating what pyne said on radio… or your on his campaign team trying to get his (strangest yet) smear out there..

  22. Interesting that Female voters in Sturt are more likely to vote for Pyne than Mia.

    Would be interested to know the age breakdown of female voters.

    I’d have young females would be impressed with Mia, though I suppose that may only be if they have a chance to meet her in person.

    I guess the other issue coming into play here is the large % of older voters in Sturt – I hear Pyne’s loved by the ladies in nursing homes (no coincidence they made him Minister for the Ageing)

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