Advertiser poll: 51-49 to Liberal in Sturt

Word in comments is that an Adelaide Advertiser poll from Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt has been previewed on Tony Delroy’s “what the papers say” segment on ABC Radio. The poll, presumably conducted from the Advertiser’s usual 700-plus sample, shows Pyne with a narrow lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred. This follows this morning’s ABC poll of 297 respondents which had Pyne’s lead at 55-45. The existing margin is 6.8 per cent.

UPDATE: The Advertiser reports:

The two-party preferred vote is now 51-49 in Mr Pyne’s favour, tightening from 52-48 in a previous poll on October 3. Ms Handshin also recorded a strong rise in her primary vote from 35 per cent to 38 per cent. Mr Pyne is steady at 44 per cent … The Advertiser poll shows just 6 per cent of voters in Sturt remain undecided.

Also:

Ms Handshin has been described this week by senior Labor powerbrokers as “a revelation” during the campaign and she is destined to become a long-term project for the party. The law graduate, former AdelaideNow blogger and former Advertiser columnist, 29, is earmarked by party officials for another tilt at the federal arena. They will not rule out considering her for a state seat such as Norwood, should Vini Ciccarello decide to call it quits at the 2010 state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

82 comments on “Advertiser poll: 51-49 to Liberal in Sturt”

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  1. The swing seems to be roughly in line with what the Newspoll state aggregates are saying (once you include the Pyne incumbency factor).

  2. Considering this is Adelaide to get 51-49 to the Tories is a good result 🙂

    Andrews is a deadbeat and a poor media performer, one of those alsorand Ministers who won’t achieve much like Wilson Tuckey lol!

    Still what id like is for both major parties to have a clean out of their MPs.

    Go through the lists who has potential who is an up and comer who could be a future leader who has good networking skills and popularity, who has some good fresh ideas. I think we get on both sides 25% of our MPs who have talent and the rest are drop kicks who will achieve nothing and warm the seat until another lawyer or a trade unionist takes it from them. I think it’s fair to say both parties could force the retirement of at least half of their backbenchers who are under performers. We are all on about standards but we don’t have standards for MPs, they don’t have to meet a criteria or prove they can do the job or take on more responsibility or more roles to get to where they are.

    Landslides are never a good thing, look at post 1966 in 1969 the tories almost lost after having a what 30 odd seat majority. After 1975 Fraser got a reduced mandate in 1977 and 1980 and after 1983 Hawke got a much reduced mandate in 1984 in the share of votes.

    I would think if accountability and responsible are required, we need an opposition party to hold at least 65 if not more seats, an opposition of less than 50 MPs is hardly going to be sufficient to hold the government accountable IMHO.

  3. [Considering this is Adelaide to get 51-49 to the Tories is a good result]

    Um, Sturt includes some of the richest suburbs in Adelaide. If The Duchess of Sturt loses there, you’re gonna get obliterated in other electorates.

  4. Glan – your eternal optimism is no bad thing (I well remember insisting that the Howard-Kennett correspondence touted by Ralph Willis would get Labor over the line in 96 – at least for a couple of hours, that is). But I am genuinely curious to know – if the Coalition does lose this election, what policy mistakes do you think it made for this to have come about?

  5. I worked on Hindmarsh on Steve Georganus first two attempts- it was a real slog and the bloke did it with very little financial support the first time.

    I have never seen a candidate knock on more doors in any campaign I have been involved in or observed- EVER.

    He deserves the easier ride this time, he has earned it.

  6. [if the Coalition does lose this election, what policy mistakes do you think it made for this to have come about?]

    It is OBVIOUS! Glen hasn’t ONCE defended WorkChoices on this forum.

    His silence on the coalition’s major policy of the term just gone suggests even he realises it has killed off the government.

  7. The regional newspoll suggests to me the farm workers realise they aren’t being looked after by the Nats just because they live in the bush. I wonder what workchoices is doing to town dinamic in addition to voting intentions

  8. [The regional newspoll suggests to me the farm workers realise they aren’t being looked after by the Nats just because they live in the bush. I wonder what workchoices is doing to town dinamic in addition to voting intentions.]

    And that episode of McCleod’s Daughters with the Workchoices AWA Scene would’ve have also had an effect in the Bush.

  9. Glen, that’s the most lucid and sensible thing you have said. I admire your candor. I don’t admire your politics, mind.

    And Downfall is a fantastic film.

  10. Just listened to the ABC delayed netcast of Tony Delroys show (broadcast at abc.net.au/adelaide). To add to my previous post:

    Delroy said that according to a poll out today (Friday, 16 Nov) “a Federal Minister could lose his seat”, to which the Advertiser journo Robert Didn’t-Catch-His-Surname said “That is correct”, and that “Labor’s star recruit” has come within a “handful of votes” to “dramatically close the gap” on Pyne. The journo said the poll was taken Wed night, and drew on 700 respondents. The poll result is 51-49 in Pyne’s favour.

  11. [Delroy said that according to a poll out today (Friday, 16 Nov) “a Federal Minister could lose his seat”, to which the Advertiser journo Robert Didn’t-Catch-His-Surname said “That is correct”, and that “Labor’s star recruit” has come within a “handful of votes” to “dramatically close the gap” on Pyne. The journo said the poll was taken Wed night, and drew on 700 respondents. The poll result is 51-49 in Pyne’s favour.]

    Simon Jackman may be proven right – Sturt could be one of the last seats to fall into Labor favourability on the betting markets.

  12. Yes, was absent from post. Listening to WTPS.

    Advertiser reported it as ‘dramatic’ close.

    Down to one and a half percent gap, as I think I heard it.

  13. That is much more like what I would expect. There is no reason for the swing in Sturt to be much less than that observed in the rest of SA. With a 6.8% margin last time, that should make it 50/50. In fact, with the boundary shift picking up mortgage belt areas in Tea Tree Gully, it should be notionaly more marginal than before.

    To answer questions of others on the nature of the seat, it is a somewhat gentrified electorate, with an average age higher than the SA average, itself above the national average. So there is not a large young vote. Although close to the east edge of Adelaide city, the inner area redevelopment trend hasn’t really happened in Adelaide yet, unlike similar areas of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Still, it is a well educated electorate, and the boundaries have shifted north, improving demographics for Labor.

    An astute Labor campaigner might ask questions of Liberal member Chris Pyne’s non-action on many moral issues such as Haneef, children overboard, wrongful detention etc to prick the consciences of small L liberals in Sturt.

    Good luck Mia Handshin, its a tough battle but not impossible.

  14. Someone has hacked into Glen’s account.

    Seriously, I would be very surprised if Labor won Sturt – they’ve been trailing consistently throughout the pre-campaign and campaign proper. Things would have to take a considerable turn for the worse for the Libs if Sturt is to fall on election day.

  15. [http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22767578-1702,00.html

    Abbots ultimate Gafe

    Caught on Camera]

    I hope whoever filmed it is the most militant unionist in Australia.

    I hope he or she is like in 19 different unions, and is trying to re-register the BLF. 😛

  16. Primary’s in ACN is 47/43.

    50% of voters believe the Government don’t deserve to be re-elected, 60% believe Labor will win the election.

    PPM – Rudd up 49/43

  17. ShowsOn 7

    You are absolutely right; getting this seat to 50/50 is in itself a great result. As for wealth, I don’t know figures for the seat, but Burnside Council (one of the largest municipalities that makes up the seat) has less than 30% of home residents paying mortgages – over 60% own their home clear, and only 10% or so rent. So interest rates will bite less here than elsewhere. Conversely, as you say, if the coalition lose this, they will have few urban seats left.

  18. 700 is too small a sample to call it on that difference. MoE is +/- 3.7% (at least – not accounting for AA fiddling of the sample). Is there a series that we can look at for this seat?

  19. “But Mr Howard said Labor had never been economically responsible and Mr Rudd’s attempts to compare one day’s tally of promises instead of the full amount since the start of the campaign was deceitful.”

    This is the same John Howard who boasted that he supported all of the economic and financial reforms of the Hawke and Keating Governments, now saying that they were economically irresponsible?

    Mad old bat.

    BTW, Glen, you’ve gone strangely silent once more.

  20. well i just watched lateline intro so i have seen what you have all been talking about.

    OMG!

    I wont sleep now, but i feel if i dont that Santa wont have left the presents under the tree in the morning.

  21. Daniel nobody has hacked onto my account at least that i am aware of but i have said this on serial occasions about how i think many politicians are deadbeats who are there to fill up the numbers, each side is a victim of this Labor and Liberal. For the good of our parties we both need to renew i mean if you are going to have an MP be in Parliament for 15 years and not be a Minister or a Shadow you’ve got to ask why did we pre-select them in the first place?

    I won’t speculate on why we are in the position we’re in until after the election that would be prudent and wise for i do not know the outcome of the election as of yet. What one can take from the figures and the polls is id rather be in your position than mine.

    Politics is a tough game but you’ve got to take the sweet with the bitter, i’ve seen us triumph in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 perhaps i am soon to taste the bitter of federal election defeat. However it is not as if i have been accustomed to defeat after all i’ve seen my side of politics lose in Victoria in 1999, 2002 and 2006 which were painful.

    I go into election day without expectations thus the sting of defeat should it arise shall not burden me as much as if i gave myself false hope that victory was assured. Nevertheless we still don’t know the outcome it will be an interesting night regardless, and i still think the election is not in the bag for Labor just yet ask me next week with the polls still at 55-45 then you may well get a concession.

  22. [For the good of our parties we both need to renew i mean if you are going to have an MP be in Parliament for 15 years and not be a Minister or a Shadow you’ve got to ask why did we pre-select them in the first place?]

    I think the fact our system is based on highly disciplined parties creates this. You need a solid backbench who are good at winning close elections, but not necessarily good at policy.

    Compare that to the American system where the politicians are politico – they represent themselves, their states, and their parties, but not particularly in that order on any particular issue.

    This means every election they need to go to the voters and say what they did, what legislation did they sponsor. What results did they get.

    I think that is a much better system, because it makes the politician freer to support good ideas wherever they originate from. Our system works against that, governments need discipline in the house else they fall, and in the senate, else they won’t get anything passed.

  23. You know what still amazes me most about this campaign? There hasn’t been one major national poll with the government less than 53% 2PP all year. Not one. Nada.

    With MOE’s of 3% or so, you’d think that every couple of months their might have been an outlier or two to perk up the Libs’ fortunes, but it just hasn’t happened. Statistically speaking, 1 in 20 polls should end up outside the MOE, but those all seem to have been in Labor’s favor instead.

    It’s quite incredible, and it really makes you think that the electorate made up its mind a long, long time ago. Just eight days left…

  24. It would be evident by then if the polls were as they’ve been it would take a massive shift on election day for the tories to win. But let’s leave concessions speeches for Rudd or Howard on election night Dave you are correct.

  25. It seems that George Newhouse has fled from a candidates’ debate in Wentworth. Coward! Emulating his worm of a leader, no doubt.

    And ACN has the primaries at 43/47? So the reality is 45/45, then.

  26. Steven, Newhouse was a stooge anyway, Malcolm should hold on after this display of arrogance by George. Why would he not attend, he’s got something to hide. Something tells me we wont be seeing much of George till election day.

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