Senate and Page polls

Morgan has published a survey of Senate voting intention aggregated from its polling over October. As usual the minor party figures look a little inflated, while major party support reflects the slight improvement the Coalition seems to have managed during the campaign. We also have a poll of 300 voters in Page conducted by Grafton’s Daily Examiner and Lismore’s Northern Star, which they stress is “not intended to be scientifically accurate”. It shows Labor’s Janelle Saffin with a decisive primary vote lead over Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis, 44 per cent to 41 per cent. A poor level of recorded support for the Greens is not of interest in itself, but it elicits an admission from candidate Theo Jongen that the party’s vote is “running at six per cent”, compared with 10.8 per cent in 2004.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Senate and Page polls”

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  1. You know that the Libs are in trouble if Rudd spends about $10b less then the Libs, an elite private school head master prefers Rudd’s rebate system, Rupert blasts the Libs for creating a middle-class welfare state. Ruddslide is on!

  3. Howard has promised more spending, more inflation and no strategy.
    Rudd has promised more ideas and an anti-inflation strategy. A clear difference. And it really is the right thing to do economically, as Glen Stevens has recently hinted. (At least one senior public servant can be reappointed on grounds of competence and impartiality. I wonder how Barbara Bennett is feeling now?)

    I can hear those mortgage – belt Liberal marginals falling now.

  4. Finally, a leader who actively encourages academic pursuit, rather than shits all over it a la the Rodent. The increased focus on universities is long over-due and very welcome.

  5. LTEP, i can’t think of any part of the curriculum where having a computer for each student would not be an advantage. having taught for quite some time i can tell you that my students in history, english and media studies are rarely away frm computers. yes, it would be good if there was incentive for good teachers, but this will play very well with families who have teenage kids.

  9. I just might look at going back to do my MSc, though it’s a bit hard to give up the salary I’m on even to go do part time. Still, I would have been able to finish my MSc and do a PhD if it wasn’t for Howard removing funding from unis in the first place. Courses like maths and physics had to really fight hard to justify why they existed anymore.

  10. TeleBlog La Bolta:

    “Very good speech overall, with fine imagery, a good slogan and hard hitting of Howard where it will hurt. The headlines will be positive, especially on education (that “future” image again).

    That’s Rudd’s last big challenge out of the way. Play it safe from here on, and Labor has won.”

    Yea and verily! A Daniel doth blog amongst us.

  11. Steph Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 3:15 pm

    Finally, a leader who actively encourages academic pursuit, rather than shits all over it a la the Rodent. The increased focus on universities is long over-due and very welcome.

    Pretty much sums it up.

  12. Looking forward to hearing the Howard-Costello response. I think we can count on the Treasurer’s generic response to any Labor proposal ie “there’s a massive hole in their calculations (smirk smirk)”. I think we all know which side of politics is IN a massive hole at the moment.

  13. Who had smh on??? After Hartcher thought the feed had been cut, he said to the others: ‘It did show Howard up today’. Someone then cut the sound, but he was tapping out points on his fingers.

  15. Jamie, my sister’s students in maths rarely or never use computers in class. She did a research piece whilst still at uni on educational programmes and found they were of little to no use in a learning environment. Of course wider access to computers might give programmers the motivation to develop some great computer programmes for learning.

    However, the problem still exists that there aren’t enough incentives to teach and that the best teachers are poached by the private system. This is the key problem to fix for schools… not computers.

  16. hahaha watching Hartcher off the SMH feed. The feed finished a little early so they were waiting to be clear. Hartcher starts talking and says to Grattan

    “They have really poleaxed Howard here”

    When the journos say that you know its a winner

  17. Playing devils advocate here… the spending from both parties is fairly reasonable as a proportion of GDP, and neither side’s will have that huge an impact on inflation, compared to say the price of oil reaching, and staying at, US$100. Both will be coming out with a surplus in any case. The MSM could easily run this line and take the air out of the fiscal conservative spin of Rudd.

  18. My only worry about the major under spend is the Libs will attack Rudd in saying that his surplus is more than 1% of GDP and will want to know where it will go. I do think the Libs setting up the Education Fund will soon realise where the money is going to go. 😉

  19. If this is gonna work, will need to follow up with lots more interest rate ads and spending comparisons. People will want their pork…. but if they can’t have it, they need to be convinced that they are better off in some other way…

  20. #734 –

    “The Audience looked as bored as I was.”

    I noticed that, too, Thommo. In fact, that’s what really stayed with me, aside from Krudd’s awkward delivery – the crowd looked really flat and completely lacking in enthusiasm as they clapped on cue. Very, very strange…

  25. Peter Hartcher isn’t happy with Howard: read some of his recent articles on the Rodent’s economic irresponsibility.
    How is David Spears? Putting a negative spin on it?

  27. Generic person and Lose the election please:

    A computer for every secondary school student is as essential these days as a fountain pen was when john Howard went to school.

    All the expensive private schools insist on students having their own laptops, which parents have to pay for. Now state schools will catch up.

    While I didn’t catch all the education promises, I do think that 65,000 apprenticeships is fantastic. It also fits in with Rudd’s pledge to build a skills wing on every secondary school. Much better than a few tech schools from Howard, and no apprenticeships.

    What I don’t understand is that, if Rudd’s promises only cost a quarter of Howard’s, where on earth did Howard’s money actually go?

  32. Mike……don’t know where you get your economics from but its all yours. There’s not an economist in the country saying that pouring all this money into an overheated and capacity constrained economy isn’t inflationary. A surplus at 1% of GDP means bugger all…. the money is coming via the resources boom, into the grubby hands of howard where its dolled out in voter bribes to the middle class, which they then hand bank almost in total to the banks. In fact the only people who are on your page are Howard and Costello. The MSM are not running this line – do you read the papers?

  33. yeah, see that spending less than 25% is real good. It’ll stick in the minds of the suburbanites as applying to the total campaign spend not the launch spend. It’ll play well.

  37. Millionaires stay rich by watching every cent.

    It’s a phenomena I’ve noticed too. Years ago I worked for a company that had an exclusively well heeled clientele. They would pay on the statements we sent them monthly. Almost invariably they would clip the payment eg. if the balance was:

    – $20.54 they would pay $20.00
    – $102.45 the would pay $100.00
    – $1020.78 – $1000.00

    In the days before computerised accounting the odd amounts were journaled off rather than carried forward.

  39. Im not so sure Rudd underspending the Gov was a smart move. The people Rudd is trying to appeal to the most are the whinging Wendy’s and the bludgers. People like that are always gonna think with their back pocket come election day and the Gov has offered alot more bang for their buck.

  40. #758 Lose the election please: Yes I agree that teachers should be paid more (my partner is one), as should nurses. But really, direct wages to state employees is a matter for state governments.

    I’m sure that the election of Liberal state governments around the nation will dramatically increase the wages of teachers….yeah….sure

  41. Computers in classrooms do a disservice in some subjects – Mathematics most notably.

    But for everything else they’re very important.

  43. #759 –

    “hahaha watching Hartcher off the SMH feed. The feed finished a little early so they were waiting to be clear. Hartcher starts talking and says to Grattan

    ‘They have really poleaxed Howard here’

    When the journos say that you know its a winner”

    You know, it always amazes me when Labor supporters like this funny little chap are completely unaware that the vast majority of this country’s media are on their side. How can you not see that?

  47. Thommo, thats rubbish.

    This speech has shown that not only will Labor focus on some key issues that need attention, but has cast serious doubt on the economic fiscal conservatism of Howard.

    It was a brilliant move

  50. Thommo @ 782, I disagree. What Rudd needs most is enhanced economic credibility. He needed to contrast himself with Howard shovelling wheelbarrows of cash handouts (non-means tested), in spite of all RBA and Treasury advice.

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