Senate and Page polls

Morgan has published a survey of Senate voting intention aggregated from its polling over October. As usual the minor party figures look a little inflated, while major party support reflects the slight improvement the Coalition seems to have managed during the campaign. We also have a poll of 300 voters in Page conducted by Grafton’s Daily Examiner and Lismore’s Northern Star, which they stress is “not intended to be scientifically accurate”. It shows Labor’s Janelle Saffin with a decisive primary vote lead over Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis, 44 per cent to 41 per cent. A poor level of recorded support for the Greens is not of interest in itself, but it elicits an admission from candidate Theo Jongen that the party’s vote is “running at six per cent”, compared with 10.8 per cent in 2004.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Senate and Page polls”

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  1. My view on the “education” policies of Howard and Rudd.

    1) HOWARD has long wanted to take us back to the days when he was a kid. If mummy and daddy (no single parent families entered the equation then) were rich enough you could go to uni.

    If not, and you were clever enough, you could get an apprenticeship. That way you wouldn’t turn nasty and think about things like the Vietnam War or the life of the poor, or the Black, or raise that nasty women’s lib stuff. He’s got us pretty close to where he started.

    2) RUDD equally really values the period when he was a kid. The sort of life view found in the difficult transition period between Howard’s beloved Menzies and the arrival of Whitlam. Like Holt, Gorton and Billy McMahon, for Rudd it is all a matter of providing enough “Commonwealth Scholarships” and making sure everyone can at least borrow today’s equivalent of a slide rule (called a pc these days). Sorry a policy for “computer access for everyone” would have been great in 1990. It is as dead as a dodo today.

    Howard, if he was honest, wants us all in the 1950’s.

    Rudd’s supposed “Educational revolution” gets us back to about 1969.

    Pretty pitiful stuff all round in my book. Time some of those “minor parties” became major ones in my book. Otherwise, despite our current wealth, we are simply going to keep on sliding further and further behind the rest of the world we live in.

  2. 941 Generic Person Says: November 14th, 2007 at 5:54 pm

    1. Perhaps Hicks could have been tried much earlier, but I have absolutely no sympathy for the guy. Never have never will.

    Most liberal supporters have a congenital defect in that regard, which is coupled with an unfortunate inability to critically analyse. Sympathy is something their selfish little minds are simply incapable of understanding.

  3. Speech! Speech! Speech!

    Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Standing Ovation!!! Wild applause!!! Wild applause!!! Wild applause!!! Wild applause!!! Wild applause!!!

    Roses, Roses, Roses!!!!!

    Oooh, Kevin, I’m in Heaven, I’m in Heaven, Oooh my heart beats so that I can hardly speak……………

    Different address, again, William. STILL sorting out the cable broadband with Telstra, inch by inch!

  4. Re 907,

    Frank Calabrese Says:

    November 14th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
    [ALP have an Aboriginal singer with a beautiful voice doing the National Anthem. What does that say about the place of Reconcilliation in a Rudd government? :):)]

    I’d laugh if it was Bilie Court – the adopted daughter of ex WA Liberal Premier Richard

    Frank, see post 503 earlier in this thread, it wasn’t Billie Court ……

  5. [Frank, see post 503 earlier in this thread, it wasn’t Billie Court ]

    So I noticed, I had posted from the bottom of the page BEFORE I got to Post 503.

    But still, I wonder if it was Ms Anu, because she was from the Torres Strait – being a Qld connection in all respects.

  6. [Definitely Christine.]

    I should clarify my post by saying that I wonder if they used Ms Anu to maintain the Qld Connction because of her Torres Strait Heritage.

  7. I’m off to watch 7.30 Report.

    People seem to be posting on the newer thread. Will see, in due season.

    Despite William’s admonition some previous thread about staying more or less on topic.

    Speak later.

  8. No 949

    If the cases for war crimes were so strong, they would have been lodged by now. It’s just a load of hot air by some communist lawyers who’ve nothing else better to do but engage in meaningless platitudes. In any event, I think you’d be hard pressed to establish that Al Qaeda was a signatory to the Geneva Convention against war crimes.

    No 950

    Funding following the child means exactly that. If you really supported it, you’d have no problem with the fact that some children attend private schools and gain some government assistance.

    The only reason why this is of any issue is because children who attend schools like The King’s School will be beneficiaries of the funding. ln that respect, it is simply a misguided generalisation to label all parents of such children as rich and thus ineligible for government assistance.

  9. Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

    For those who take an interest in matters, it is my happy joy to recount the following.

    An approach was endevoured to approach the main chamber, but was off-put by bad sand and grit in the eyes of formidable workers. Savva,

    Our small team of specialist treasure hunting types has been augmented by a young pup with a strange accent, Howard Cart-it-Off but he looks sick and doesn’t eat pasta. Time will tell here.

    Was in tea tent and then much alarm. Finished tea and nice scone, with creamy .

    To my joy and overriding considerable happinesss, my workers have discovered the entrance to the chamber. Being a god if evil employer, I instructed my employees to vacate the premises, pending fumigation.

    Using alll technologies – garlic, dead cats, possum tails, dog and cat poo, Namtuckets … we made our way into the inner santum.

    It is a small space, ashlar construction. No air. We were surprised by the lack of burial goods. A small room, no adornments. We proceeded gingerly. Trev, who is 6 foot 4 and built of muscle, looked at me and said: “Stuffed, mate … stuffed .. let’s get out of here.”

    “Hang on, Trev,” says me … pointing to a small package in a corner.

    Trev, who is 6 foot 4 and built of muscle, does what Trev does. He picks up a shovel …

  10. Generic Person… you’re missing the point a little. Noone is really forcing a parent to send their kid to Kings are they? For a poorer parent to send their kid to Kings they will need to work hard and save wisely.

    The job of the government ought to be to provide an adequate safety net in the public system so that all children can achieve a certain level of an education. Is there any research whatsoever to support the idea that subsidising private education makes it cheaper?

    In fact, if you look at a purely market-driven understanding… it would make more sense for the government to provide incentives for less parents to want to send their kids to private schools. If the demand fell off then private schools would need to lower their fees to attract more students.

    In my opinion, no private schools ought to be subsidised, with the possible exception of the smaller private schools, some of whom are less funded than public schools.

  11. GP @ 961, I’m not sure how much clearer I can be. Funding follows children to private schools because they get financial grants both state and federal, and I have no issue with that fact.

    Explain to me why, on top of the fact that my taxes already pay for children in both public and private schooling, I should subsidise the private school fees of a proportion of the population while a perfectly functional public school system exists?

  12. That Northern Rivers poll shows an 11% swing to Labor on the primary vote since the last election, which they got 33% of the primary vote. The Nationals should be worried about Cowper if there is a swing of that size going on in that neck of the woods.

  13. GP 968…

    But the government is governing for all children already by funding both systems. Why should my next door neighbour get some of my tax dollars given to him as a rebate because he chooses the more expensive of the two options available to him?

  14. Generic Person

    The Liberals have certainly always supported education – but only for their own breed.

    The point I’m trying to make is that LIBERALS, of the odious variety, DO NOT want an educated population. Kids, if educated, might think – heaven forfend and, shudder, form an OPINION, which might go counter to the dogma of the day. Anyway, nice launch today … now thinking of dinner. I’m having mussels in white wine with a red, or white, to follow. You? Despite my somewhat over-rated culinary skills, I do draw the line when it comes to dead rat. Phenol is not good in a sauce, I’ve found.

    Have a nice day.

  15. If the cases for war crimes were so strong, they would have been lodged by now. It’s just a load of hot air by some communist lawyers

    Are the Australian Defence Force and Fed Solicitor General’s offices’ well known for having “communist” lawyers in charge?

    The reason no ones been charged may be because only the Attorney General can authorise Sec 268 prosecutions and Ruddock isn’t about to do that is he seeing he’s likely to the one of the main defendants? But it seems he may no longer be A/G in 11 days.

    We may be about to live in ‘interesting’ times!

  16. No 969

    But that argument is circular and illogical. Why should my neighbour get some of my tax dollars for using the Pacific Highway when I never drive on it. Why should by neighbour get some of my tax dollars for using Royal North Shore hospital when my local hospital is Concord hospital. And so on and so forth.

    No 970

    Giovanni, with respect, your whole point is ludicrous.

    I’ll be enjoying a lovely Papardelle dish with Crab and a pink sauce. Delicious.

  17. Well Well Well… Generic Person and the rest of you, getting yourselves tried up in logic knots, round and round in circles you’ll all disappear up a Rattus Rattus bottom.

    The real point is that Jumped-Up-Johnny is buying votes. He thinks the vote of person who is sending a child to a private school is $800 per child, there is nothing else to it. Really, should not a person sending a child to a school charging say $30000 a year be given much more than a person paying say $6000. It’s only fair?

    Similarly, should I drive my car on a road or across a bridge should also not paid for that road or bridge as well?

  18. One thing should be made clear to that pot-headed maniac Tasmaniac Bob Brown:

    Howard is NOT gone, he is still the Prime Minister, and still deserves to defeat that chameleon Kruddy.

    Get this clear, to all of you of know how Senators are elected at a Double-Dissolution, Bobby Brown would have to negotiate with Pauline Hanson, and a floating raft of Family First Senators in such a case.

    Bob Brown is extremely desperate to have a situation where he can sociopathically bully Fielding, rather than a full and free Senate election.

    The optimal outcome for free and fair Government, is to elect a Coalition Senate, which has to block legislation with Fielding, and/or (ha.ha) The Gruens.

    Bob Brown and the Gruens (some who liked The Wall) are desperate for an outcome where they have control.

    It is far better that Krudd is forced to call a double dissolution, and deal with a tuely representative Senate, with a 7% quota per Senator.

  19. Gee Hilton… with posts like that it really makes me wonder why more people don’t want to vote Coalition. Perhaps next time you could try for a less insane rambling feel.


    However Mr Howard says he has no problem with Mr Rudd’s promise to have a computer for every senior secondary school student.

    “I’m not opposed to computers. There are a lot of computers in a lot of schools now.” he said.

    “Nobody’s against that. I didn’t come here to attack computers.

    “I think we all like computers and we all find computers are a marvellous aid and we love them and they make our life so joyous, we get so much information. They’re terrific, nobody’s arguing about that.”

    I can’t work out who the stupid tired old git is channelling here – Joh Bjelke-Petersen, one of the hosts off Play School, or Grandpa Simpson.

  21. Oh, mad cow.

    My friends are cautioning me over undue delirium.

    Cannot help myself.

    Just hope, hope, that those who would be seduced by a few dollars, a la Howard, would see that there could be a different approach.

    The possibility of a real future for this country.

    Sure, I understand the cynics, that is the way it goes, but give it five years of turn around time…we will be on the way.

  22. In my humble opinion, I reckon that Belzoni chap had the better recipe.

    Generic Person. What was Giovanni’s “whole point” and why was it ludricous?

    Watching Lateline: That Bishop woman has strange eyes.

  23. Zoloft might help those who suffer delusional raving….maybe not….

    No, it won’t. Probably make the delusions worse. You need an antipsychotic like Haldol. But bloody awful stuff by all accounts.

  24. So generic ??????? I quote yourself back to you. I know William wants us to be nice to you, but if you’ve ever learnt a formal argument it’s not showing – is it now?

  25. ”I am saying that there is a good case for targetted increases in welfare payments.”

    The top rate of income tax should be increased to 47%. This will provide enough money both for increasing welfare payments and for more spending on health.

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