Galaxy: 50-50 in Wentworth

The ABC reports that Galaxy’s poll of Wentworth, which we first heard about on Thursday, shows Malcolm Turnbull and George Newhouse locked at 50-50 on two-party preferred. The only further detail provided is that Turnbull leads by 8 per cent on the primary vote, and that the sample size was 800. All will be revealed in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.

UPDATE: Sunday Telegraph article here. Primary vote figures are Liberal 44 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and Greens 14 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

423 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Wentworth”

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  1. To all you slappers that vote for the Exclusive Brethren & The National Farmers Association…

    In the immortal words of Peter Garrett and Midnight Oil … ‘your dreamworld is just about to end… your dreamworld is just about to fall” (Dreamworld from Diesel & Dust 1987).

    2 weeks baby… 2 weeks to annihilation… 2 weeks until the whole nation is governed by the Labor Party… It will be the greatest moment in the history of the Labor movement.

  3. Off topic but I thought some of you might find this interesting. (I’m sure you will just skip over it if you don’t).

    Tony Wright in The Age today wrote a very unsympathetic summary of Mark Latham’s article in the Finacial Review. He says that Latham’s main theme is that globalisation has created massive, insatiable greed and materialism amongst the middle class. It has redistributed power in a way that gives the middle class the income and ability to buy private schooling, private healthcare and private recreational resources – which in turn has led to a treadmill of higher spending, higher indebtedness, longer working hours and greater relationship stress. All government is now required to do is provide extra money in the form of reduced taxes and increased middle class welfare.

    Whoever wins this election, says Latham, Australia will still have conservative social policies – overfunded elite private schools, huge subsidies for private health insurance and bucket loads of hand outs for the middle class. No-one will be arguing for billions to be spent on such causes as alleviating poverty or on cheap public housing.

    I am no great fan of Latham after the way he turned on his own party after the last election – and I do believe that Rudd is doing exactly what is needed to get rid of a devious turd like Howard – in a way that Latham could not have done. But I do think Latham has a point. Whatever else the Labor party now stands for it no longer seems to have any reference to what we used to call the light on the hill – and I think that’s a pity.

    At the end, Wright surprisingly refers to Latham as an “angry old man” From my recollection he wouldn’t be any older than Rudd would he?

  4. Turnbull is NOT a republican.
    He played the role of monarchist gatekeeper very nicely, thank you.
    He’s a Liberal Party minister now…get the picture.
    Go back and study the republic debate carefully and you will see what I mean.

  5. Diogenes @285 I read your post @ 177. Turnbull has shown his true colours on climate change. Also totally agree with 274, Dazzamack from Perth. Turnbull will never be a future Liberal PM.

  6. Marko, I’m in Slurry Hills too and have to suffer the pain of voting for our Tanya. Not that I wouldn’t anyway, but if I was just one street over I could vote against Malcolm and feel as if I was doing something good in this world. I don’t have a problem with Mal himself – it’s the crowd he’s attached himself to that’s the problem.

  10. Darn @ 303

    Latham nails it perfectly. But at the same time, how could anyone in their right mind rail against the desires of middle-class parents (or aspirationally middle-class parents, who are the core Rudd constituency in this election) to have good schools/healthcare for themselves and their kids? They can pay for it, so by golly, they’re going to pay for it — even if they work themselves to death and take all the joy out of their lives and their childrens’ lives in the process.

    It’s a Faustian bargain; you gain the world but lose your own soul. Latham is right to rail against it, but he’s like King Canute. There’s no way to hold back that particular tide. The only way to ameliorate that trend is to make sure that the public schools and public healthcare are well-funded – from the public’s purse. And why would the middle-classes want to do that? Because if they don’t, their quality of life goes down as well. You can’t have a successful economy in the 21st century if people are under-educated and chronically ill. (Look at the United States, which has been hollowing out its own economy for nearly 40 years.) Investing in public services isn’t class warfare – it’s common sense.

    But Latham, itching for a fight he already lost three years ago, just wants to irritate, rather than conciliate.

  11. I think a lot of Labor supporters here are going rabid in the mouth.

    Seriously get a grip guys, Turnbull isn’t going to lose his seat. The reason why it was so tight last time was cos of the disgruntled ex-Lib member.

    Some of you need to get out of LALA land and back into reality. Add back some of that 18% Independent King took from Turnbull in the 2004 election where he recieved 42% and you suddenly get an idea how silly you are being.

    A Turnbull 46%+ Primary Vote Vs Labor Candidate with 38% and requiring 100% of the Green preferences…. I’d be putting all my money on Turnbull.

    PS. I live in Townsville(Herbert) and am 99% sure Colbran is going to win this seat. The last person they ran here was a nobody candidate, whereas Colbran is famous for owning all the Townsville McDonalds. His campaign also has been very good, in the news heaps, advertising, etc. Peter Lindsay has had a good run because the Labor candidates have been shockers here, and he may well be a nice bloke… but hardly anyone in Townsville gets to see much from him because he seems to hate TV cameras from what I can tell.

  12. Deja vu @ 304 – Fair enough – but even if Malc isn’t a genuine republican I still think the Clarkists want to sacrifice him like one of their goats.

  13. Edward StJohn,

    If you don’t like Midnight Oils Dreamworld Lyrics, how about another Midnight Oil lyric ‘The Time Has Come’ (Bed Are Burning from Diesel & Dust 1987).

    BTW- what has your Exclusive Brethren World Leader told you to do if the Coalition lose the election?… I heard the Exclusive Brethren has some mass suicide pact if that is to happen so you all get taken to heaven by angels instead of living in the apocalypse.

  14. Mal @ 306

    Well I do have a problem with Malcolm: he considers himself part of the entitled class. That, in itself, is enough to turn me off of him. (That and I know something about his shenanigans during the dot-com era. He made quite a bit of money, but didn’t make himself a lot of friends.)

    Fortunately I have plenty of friends in Wentworth, and I’m only too happy to pass along the best bits of this blog along to them when I find something particularly juicy.

    I, for one, plan on driving past Malcolm’s Bondi Junction office around midnight on the morning of the 25th of November, just so I can hear the gentle sound of entitled sobbing in the distance…

  15. #306
    Marktwain, you can make a bifferance,
    Give the Greens a call and pack lunch and a hat, there is a polling booth waiting for you in Vacluse–Belview Hill.

  17. Darn @303, I couldn’t agree more.

    Latham was honest, and for that he got crucified.

    We need more people who can stand up in public and tell people things they didn’t want to hear about themselves. Things like we’re creating a society where we don’t have any time for our children. Childcare policies be damned, why can’t we have a society where one income can pay for a modest home and support a family?

  18. Rudd’s control freakery is dwarfed by Howard’s….nothing goes without his ok.
    At least Rudd is still feeling his way….but if he swings too far to the right, I’ll vote against him next time.

  22. Yawn.

    What a bore this thread is.

    Dweeby little Labor boys tugging themselves to sleep with perverse dreams that Turnbull is gone, Howard is gone, Alex Hawke is about to get slammed in Mitchell and Brendan Nelson’s Bradfield is about to become another socialist paradise.

    Wake up – this election will be won on a seat by seat basis. And the Federal Liberal Party’s superior campaigning ability combined with its general decency will jag yet another win.

    Can’t wait to drop by after November 24 and see the usual pronouncements of very boring Labor people heading for the airport and heading to New Zealand/Cuba.

  23. nath Says:

    ESJ, re asylum seekrs. the real issue is that perhaps howard has alienated a group of people from ever voting liberal, not just at this election. it maybe not important to this election, but it has redefined the liberal party for some.

    Yep.

    Please use a capital L for the party name while it is controlled by radial right wing nutters, there is nothing liberal about it in 2007.

  25. Isabella, you remind me of republicans in the US before thier elections last year. So completely warped in the idea that your side is simply too entrenched, has such a great campaign team yadayadayada… Similiary, some pessimistic labor people remind me of quite a few Democrats, “They republicans always pull it off in the end, the country’s just to right wing, they have to much money…”. Labor will win comfortably on November 24th and anyone who doesn’t see that is really, really dumb.

  27. # 322

    Generally, there is nothing wrong with having nothing worthwhile to say – unless you insist on saying it. Congratulations Isabella! You have just proved the theory that there is no limit to human stupidity.

  28. mad cow at 317 Says:

    ‘Childcare policies be damned, why can’t we have a society where one income can pay for a modest home and support a family’?

    Yes, mad cow. Let’s get Hugh Mackay on to explain it all.

    If he has bothered to look.

    Why is that once women got into the workforce, on an ongoing basis, for one, that it somehow became necessary to have two incomes to have a home?

    Do not mistake me, I am a feminist, equal rights, everything.

    But did the market detected the dual income?

  29. ESJ @ 299 I’m afraid you’ve got it all wrong dear chap. This is the me too! election.

    I think the more appropriate is: 4 legs good but two legs better.

    And as for Johnny he’s like poor old Boxer: “I will work harder.” In the end he’ll still be dragged off to the knackery.

  30. Marko

    Class issues don’t really register with me, I’m afraid, although I do sincerely applaud your drive-by plans. Just remember to give him the old brown iris as you gently pass. How’s that class for you?

    Envy, I’ll seriously consider voting for the greens in the upper house, but not in the lower. Clover Moore would never forgive me.

    And Crikey Whitey, while I disagree with most of what EdStJ says, you did come across sounding as if you would like to line up all the dissenters after November 24 and summarily execute them. We all do get a bit carried away at times, do we not?

  31. I am from Melbourne, so I don’t know much about Wenworth etc. But unless Labor needs that seat to win government I hope that Turnbull wins it.

    If we have to have a Liberal Prime Minister in the future, I’d rather have him than other alternatives.

  32. The Liberal Party’s “superior campaigning ability” has been very effectively concealed to this point. Their central campaign has been guided by their obsessive hatred of the unions, and has had no impact at al;, while their attemps to smear Rudd have all failed. Their local campaigns are notable mainly for their pathetic attempts to pretend that they have no connection with the Howard regime. We appear to have 150 independent candidates running against “hoons, graffiti and potholes,” things they will be able to do nothing about from Canberra.

    As for Wentworth, we’ve just had a poll showing it on 50-50. So obviously it’s prefectly possible for Labor to win it, regardless of its “real” margin or whatever people here think of Turnbull or Newhouse.

  33. Isabella @322 – if we are just a bunch of “Dweeby little Labor boys tugging themselves to sleep with perverse dreams” while you are walking the path of
    Tory righteousness…what the hell are you doing here at midnight on Saturday?

  35. 330 Marktwain Says:

    ‘And Crikey Whitey, while I disagree with most of what EdStJ says,

    you did come across sounding as if you would like to line up all the dissenters after November 24 and summarily execute them.

    We all do get a bit carried away at times, do we not’?

    (A) Most of? State your exceptions.
    (B) Summary executions? Bullshit!
    (C) Yes, you have.

  36. Marktwain,

    maybe summary executions are a little extreme, but how about at least revoking a few visas….starting with the Member from Menzies?

  38. The Liberal party ads about ‘soft on crime’ are quite annoying, they narrator almost speaks in a defensive tone. Who designs these things?

    I would say more but Im giving no clues away.

  39. What is this bizarre liberal dirt campaign all about?
    It is the time to panic and write fake letters and press releases? Well Denis Shenanigans got caught out at the GG.

    This from the AGE.
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/jason-koutsoukis/2007/11/10/1194329566789.html

    Playing dirty is another tactic the Liberals now seem to be flirting with. On Friday morning a fake letter from one Samuel L. Bronkowitz was distributed in the Canberra press gallery.

    Addressed to one of Kevin Rudd’s media advisers, the letter was a purported rejection of a job application made by the adviser on the grounds that he had clearly failed in his job because Rudd was never informed of crucial issues. The letter was accompanied by a dossier of various instances where Rudd had been quoted in the media saying he was unaware of a particular report, or hadn’t been briefed, or hadn’t read a report.

  41. Latest dirt on Gillard by the Poison Dwarf.

    [JULIA Gillard fell in love with a former WA union official and fraudster who broke her heart and threatened to destroy her political career.

    Ms Gillard, 46, who is poised to become deputy prime minister if Labor wins office in two weeks’ time, yesterday confirmed she was a union lawyer when she met the conman.

    As a solicitor acting on instructions, she set up an association later used by her lover, Bruce Morton Wilson, to defraud the Australian Workers Union. But she has strenuously denied ever knowing what the association bank accounts were used for.

    A series of court orders against Mr Wilson and others between 1995 and 1996 nominated missing monies totalling more than $1.25 million. Court orders were made in 1995 against Mr Wilson for the recovery of almost $42,000.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22736934-948,00.html

  42. What The F*ck!!!!!! SMH – Tag-Team Assault By Howards

    “One thing we know is that he doesn’t know anything about economics,” said Mrs Howard, in an interview at Kirribilli House on Friday, alongside her husband of 37 years.

    Now the Rodent has got his fat arsed She-Rodent to campaign for him. Is he that f*cked that he has to pull IT away from IT’S weekly Bridge game and get IT to talk on his behalf…

    Now I know it’s all over… All over to the point that i might go to bed a tug myself to sleep (Isabella @322), but maybe if I am nice, my girlfriend may assist

  46. http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2012521.htm
    Malcolm Turnbull responding to accusations of ‘bullying’ from Howard confidant Geoffrey Cousins.
    “If I succumb to this sort of bullying political pressure, bullying business pressure … let me tell you, I’ve been a businessman, I understand the business world, and I’ve seen plenty of business bullies in my time. And I am not a Minister for the Environment that will be bullied by anybody, let alone Mr Cousins.”

    Now my point here is that this was around the time an unionist was accused of ‘union bullying”, a big deal in the media.
    Yet here are 2 major Liberal business types ADMITTING that businessmen, and themselves according to each other, are “bullies”.
    So we have the media playing one [the union fella] up and the others [Geoffrey and Malcolm] down.
    What would be the impression of the ethics and competence of Turnbull if he was subjected to the same sort of media treatment that the union fella got?
    Would he still be regarded as a suitable candidate for PM?

    Check out the transcript.

  47. #340
    Post To Poisoned dwarf blog:
    Shame your obvious investigative skills were not used to debunk the 2004 Interest Rate Con, AWB cover up and IR Con. Imagine the kudos you could have had. Instead you are debunking the great grocery swindle…

  49. mILNE SAYS:

    A confidential report to Labor’s campaign director Tim Gartrell, from the party’s national campaign research and analysis team, says: “Retirement a negative for Howard – blocker for Government future messaging: Working through the focus groups is a growing sense of the ridiculous in the situation: Howard is saying ‘vote for me, I’m better able to manage the future’ but that he will then retire. Swinging voters are struggling to see the logic in Howard’s position.”

    As I have been saying all along: make it seem likely that Howard will be defeated in Bennelong (or if not that, rendered impotent after the election) and the proportion of the electorate that love Howard but aren’t too fussed about his party will turn towards Labor.

    The guerilla campaign of “leaked” “private” polling in Bennelong will have the effect of making voters outside Bennelong who aren’t loyal to the Liberal Party think twice about elevating Costello the the Prime Ministership.

    To make sure Costello is squashed they will vote Labor.

    This may only be one or two per cent, but I’m sure everyone would agree, it’s a vital one or two per cent at this stage.

    The Bennelong “Howard’s Gone” campaign will be seen as Labor’s most brilliant, if only brilliantly oblique campaign tactic.

    Seats that come to mind: the Battler seats in Western Syndey, outer Melbourne, Queensland, some so-called “safe” (> 5% ,but <10% Lib seats).

    This is a real winner for Labor, and (as Milne points out) Howard’s retirement is “official”. It’s not a scare tactic to say “A vote for Howard is a vote for Costello”… it’s the absolute truth.

    Glad to see some vindication for my argument, if only from the Poison Dwarf.

  50. 340 Frank Calabrese

    I feel a lovely movie in the making.

    Julia, our beautiful own Hepburn. Blanchett, perhaps.

    The Libs should be more careful of our gal.

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