Newspoll: 53-47

Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.

UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:

This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. ESJ:
    1: yeah, so?
    2: momentum? what momentum? and there’s this tiny little poblem loominag at about 9:30 tomorrow …
    3: That’s what they said when they hanged Ned …

  2. I hear Hyacinth was worried that Johnny took 45 minutes longer than usual on his walk this morning. I know why because I saw it on the news tonight…..he stopped to use an ATM.

  3. MC-thats certainly true in this country. Quality investigative journalism is not a priority these days or it does not seem to be. obviously there are some honourable exceptions but by and large the 24 hour news cycle demands other priorities.

  4. [1.The ALP attack ads have been limp.]

    Every house in my electorate received a Labor pamphlet saying that Labor will get rid of WorkChoices. That’s a constructive attack based around the most important policy of the entire campaign.

    [2.JWH has got some momentum.]

    WTF? The TV News down my end featured Howard repeatedly defending a Liberal member who said that interest rates going up would be good for the government – I mean screw people with mortgages.

    Everyone was focussed on the Melbourne Cup today, and tomorrow the goverment will get slammed by every TV news show over interest rates.

  5. The GG have offered me my own blog, but I’m worried about starting it up as my family think my politics might bring them into disrepute and the Downers might not talk to us again . What should I do?

  6. “I reckon it’s not too hot. If it had been, certain personages within the powers that be (that would be the Govt, not the press) would have used it earlier.”

    That’s about the guts of this Crikey beat up, Sammy at 903.

  7. ShowsOn, my benchmark still is 53.5 2PP. Thats where my 83 seat prediction came from. That and Antony’s calculator. Although I do believe the ALP can win more seats with a little less vote. If you read Possum’s analysis regarding the safe liberal/marginal liberal/labor figures then you’ll see what I’m thinking.

    We’re still on 54.5 trending towards 54 on Nov 24.

  8. I think Howard could get some traction with his “you need us to get through these tough times” if, and only if, global stock markets really start unravelling over the next 19 days. So far, Wall St seems to be weathering the Citigroup/Merrill Lynch thing OK and Hong Kong is back on an even keel after Monday’s meltdown.

  9. hmm from Ruddock.

    [Australia’s terrorism laws were one of the hot topics but Mr Ruddock deflected questions after the debate about whether future terrorism investigations could result in suspects being treated the same as Dr Haneef.

    “The point I would make is I expect that an independent director of public prosecutions will always do his job and do it independently and properly – and that is a very significant protection,” Mr Ruddock told reporters.

    He reiterated his view that the immigration minister does not rely on criminal law but on evidence of a person’s character when deciding to review the visa status of overseas visitors and workers.

    “If you understand how the decisions were reached you would understand that the protections that people regard as being important were operating in this particular matter,” Mr Ruddock said.]

  10. The 4 x 2 would definitely be applied to the back of Downer’s scone. I wouldn’t even want to see his face, and would be wearing ear plugs to block out that incessant whining private school prefect voice of his. I think 23 or 24 hits ought to do it.

  11. [ShowsOn, my benchmark still is 53.5 2PP. Thats where my 83 seat prediction came from. That and Antony’s calculator.]

    53.5 2pp is how I picked 85, because I felt some seats will get even bigger swings than the average so they will fall.

    But ESJ is now predicting 80, which means it must be closer to 90.

  12. ESJ (1098) Labor’s attack ads only seem limp to you because they’re not aimed at YOUR buttons. Trust me , the people they ARE aimed at will well and truly get the message – and there’s plenty more to come.

  13. And yet the Tories are 2 points 2PP from winning the election, hmmm seems like they like the Soma they’ve been getting from Howie for all these years. How else can you explain his high performance rating numbers in the high 40s after 11 years of Howie and GWB struggles to get into the low 30s.

    I hope if we lose its a squeaker it will have shown how arrogant you all were, not that you’ll care but still.

  14. 1110 EC – I hope that sentiment is correct but if you were (i) desperate and (ii) sans ruth, what would you do? Drop a pile of excrement on the opposition just late enough to make sure it gets to everyone when they’re just tuning in and NOT give the attackee enough time to respond convincingly. But having said that, I personally believe that there is nothing out there and that the whole Crikey thing is a beat up; which, having been a Crikey subscriber for a while now, seems to be their stock in trade, sadly. A pity; Jonathin used to be quite good at the Canberra Times … (Hi JG)

  15. The blogmonster ate this post from mad cow last week… I repost it for Glen and posterity, not in that order. It is a rational island in a sea of spin…

    mad cow Says:
    October 30th, 2007 at 1:38 am

    Glen @288, Being an Engineer by training, I’m probably as familiar as you with gen IV nuclear power stations. Yes they are quite lovely. I’m a big fan of neat engineering solutions. My favorite is the one where the fuel is the coolant.
    There’s a guy called Colin Keay. Who is currently promoting nuclear power. I know him well. He was my physics lecturer.

    Read back to what I said in an earlier thread.
    Reactors are quite safe, although the gen IV reactors haven’t had much field experience. Regardless. That’s not an issue.

    Nor is waste. We’ve got the best technology right here.

    Nor is proliferation. Using the stuff doesn’t proliferate it. It actually diverts uranium we would be tempted to sell to places like India.

    So what then is the real problem? Simple. It’s too bloody expensive. The estimates that nuclear power might cost 30-50% more than current coal based power do not consider the life-cycle costs. Decommissioning is an expense that has yet to be fully understood as most reactors that have been built are either still in use, or standing there waiting while people scratch their heads as to how to pull them down safely.

    And disposing of waste, while a solved problem, is seriously expensive.

    Compare this to the current state of the art in solar (remember gen IV reactors are still a decade away). Utility scale solar is approaching $1 per peak watt installed. (that includes the entire kit). Have a look at as an example and remember that currently several billion is being invested into manufacturing plant. Go talk to a venture capitalist and see where the smart money is going.

    Howard has a plan that commits us to nuclear reactors and once he does, he creates an entire institutional culture dedicated to seeing it happen. It gains momentum. We end up with nuclear power plants 15 years hence.

    In the mean time we’ll see 3 extra generations of utility scale solar plants. China’s current 15% by 2020 goal will ensure it is the first to build a solar tower. Once that thing is spinning (estimate 2011.. but who knows the Chinese are bloody good at building things quickly) and is proven technology, everyone will want one.

    We could have had a solar tower 3 years ago here in oz. Yes, it would have created power about 30% more expensive than coal. However most of the costing is in the civil engineering. And it gets cheaper with experience. The same lesson learned by the wind turbine people. But, no. Howard and those who advise him, and are clueless about the latest technology, decided that the so called clean energy funding would go overwhelmingly to studies to do with coal.

    I’m not saying thats a bad thing. But for about 80 million dollars we are now 3 years overdue (and counting) on perhaps the most promising technology there is.

    For those who are wondering what I’m on about, the url is .

    If you’re a fan of big engineering, then you gotta admit its cool. Almost beats that pretty blue glow you get out of spent nuclear fuel sitting around in big swimming pools for decades.

    Think about it. Nuclear plants are devilishly complex to make work. And they last 30-40 years. A solar tower lasts 100 years+. And before you state the obvious a solar tower is capable of storing energy for you guessed it, baseload power. But even before that gets going, lets not forget the linear fresnel solar thermal system has been with us and has been well studied since the 90s.
    Its now going to California! All because Howard starved the entire sector of a few tens of millions of funds, when it was funding the coal industry to the tune of hundreds of millions. (Research, as opposed to other subsidies).

    Not to mention the now cost-competitive-with-coal photovoltaic concentrator systems.

    And then we have a proposal to build a gigawatt class wind farm. Out there at Silvertown near Broken Hill (mad max country).

    And on and on we go. I’m sorry but as someone who understands the engineering in detail, everything that Howard or anyone connected to him has said about energy has made me both laugh and cry. He says we can make nuclear viable by increasing the price of electricity by taxing carbon in one way or another. But won’t it be a shame in the year 2015, when we have a nuclear authority and we’ve figured out we are going to have to double the price of electricity to fund the life cycle cost of nuclear power and the whole ‘industry’ has gained its own momentum and its own lobby…


    in the rest of the world, solar will be cheaper. Our scientists will have long gone and China will have cheaper energy than us.

    I know you have a fondness for the canceled nuclear plant, but that plant wasn’t exactly high tech. The idea behind it was to create a culture and an industry from which we were to go on to bigger and better things.

    The problem is, the lesson we would have learned is, and its the lesson they learned in the US. They just aren’t economic. They never would have been against coal.

    And they aren’t now competitive.

    And by the time they are competitive with ‘clean coal’, solar will be far cheaper.
    Its just plain wrong on every level. And I don’t accuse Howard of being mean or tricky about it. I honestly believe that he believes the bad science/engineering inherent to the policy.

    Still believe in nuclear power?

  16. Hockey virtually said that working families never had it so good & won’t release government funded study into WorkChoices affect. What a SLOTH

  17. #891 –

    “according to our very own Steven Kaye, Howard went to a local Leagues Club whose attenders were the definately over fifties a demographic where he has a 400k lead).

    The retreat is in full swing.”

    Geez, pay attention, okay? I wrote that the cheers and applause started when he popped up on the TV. I don’t know where he was, but I did see him on the news being photographed with some attractive blondes. Meanwhile, Krudd was hanging out with Mungo MacCallum (shudder).

  18. Glens not going to respond to my questions?

    Minstrel: [singing] Yes, brave Sir Robin turned about, and valiantly, he chickened out.
    Sir Robin: *Oh, you liars!*

  19. Steven Kaye – which Leagues Club? I saw him get roundly booed at the NRL Grand Final. I assume the Leagues Club in question is a REAL one. And not an artefact of your obviously fertile imagination.

  20. Crispy with respect to you and to Mad Cow’s lengthy and informative post i believe that Australia should have a nuclear capacity and one that would leave the weapons option open to pursue it if we ever needed to down the track.

    But aside from that reason to back going nuclear, it is the only form of baseload power that does not have emissions, it will become cheaper as we have an emissions trading scheme and it is safe. If you are serious about climate change you cannot fob off Nuclear to do so shows ignorance.

    We are one of the few western countries who have not gone nuclear, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, USA, Canada the list goes on and yet somehow its good for them but not good for us.

    So says Glen.

  21. [I hope if we lose its a squeaker it will have shown how arrogant you all were, not that you’ll care but still.]

    A win is a win is a win.
    A loss is a loss is a loss.

  22. Hewson in tomorrow’s Bulletin :-

    “Howard should commit to a review of our federation to settle once and for all the division of responsibilities,” Dr Hewson writes.

    “Importantly, such a process should include a referendum on whether we really need the states at all, beyond a mere ceremonial role.

    “Howard could lead us to a new nation in a way Rudd never could, he could show real leadership and wedge Rudd in the process.”

    … i’d have been more impressed if he’d described the wedge using a cake analogy.

    PS. Stop salivating when ESJ rings his bell.

  23. Speaking of nuclear power (Crispy – 1121), does anyone think the ALP will have some attack ads on that. They’ve been very quiet about it up to now.

  24. [Crispy with respect to you and to Mad Cow’s lengthy and informative post i believe that Australia should have a nuclear capacity and one that would leave the weapons option open to pursue it if we ever needed to down the track.]

    You’ll never convince anyone to support nuclear power if you also want Australia to have nuclear weapons.

  25. ShowsOn that is my opinion, but regardless any step towards building nuclear power stations would also help us in this respect whether we liked it or not. This is a preference but i realize no government of either persuasion will support at least maintaining the weapons option, not that we’d ever build them but we should have the capacity.

  26. Glen, nuclear has emissions. They’re called waste and they last for couple of hindred thousand years. The most noxious substance we know is one of them; a few grams of it will kill thousands of people. A few kilograms of it could, if cleverly engineered, kill millions. Not to mention the amount of energy (fossil fuel energy) required to construct the powerplant, and supply the thing with uranium fuel. It is not part of the solution. It is part of the system of extracting wealth from ordinary people and repositioning it in the pockets of the very wealthy. that’s whay it appeals to Howie (as you rather depressingly refer to him). Not because it’s going to solve anything. And the world’s reserves of uranium would last for about 50 years if we cranked it up to anything like baseload levels. It’s dangerous, poisonous, and we don’t even need it.

  27. CL de Footscray we are blessed that we have 30% of known reserves of uranium and we may have more lots more if WA and QLD allowed explorations. We probably have 50% of known reserves. Also IV generation reactors use less uranium thus we won’t run out of uranium and by that time hopefully we’ll have developed nuclear fusion.

  28. [George Grljusich was a good commentator, but as a person he was a wanker…]

    Dazza, you may well be right. I only know his broadcast persona, and that was pretty funny. Come to think of it, I seem to remember among sports broadcasting mates he took a bit of ribbing about the cost of supporting his ex-wives. At broadcast level at least, he could take it on the chin. But as other posters have said I guess we should let him rest in peace.

    On the ABC news broadcasts, I think some posters here have a point. Merely to take feeds of breaking ‘news’ stories in The Oz hardly seems to qualify as an independent news service which was once so proudly proclaimed in the War and post-War years. Are they now the new Mouse Pack?

    I suspect Greg Sheridan was wrong on that point (as he is on so many others). Howard actually won the Culture Wars, even if it is (we hope) only a temporary victory.

  29. ShowsOn – tis not the weapons – tis the waste, irrespecive of purpose – 50,000 yrs is a long time in anybodies “to-do” (dispose of waste) list

  30. Boll, i have changed my way of posting because i was sick of so many left wingers posting websites for me to visiting all associated with teaching English. I was very offended by this and won’t give them the opportunity to bash me on grammar again, but bashing me on my Tory beliefs is still permitted.

  31. [ShowsOn that is my opinion, but regardless any step towards building nuclear power stations would also help us in this respect whether we liked it or not. This is a preference but i realize no government of either persuasion will support at least maintaining the weapons option, not that we’d ever build them but we should have the capacity.]

    This doesn’t make sense. You only develop a weapon building capacity if you intend to build weapons. If you intend to build weapons, then you’ll never convince Australians to support nuclear power.

    Australia has been a leader is convincing countries to reduce their nuclear weapon stockpiles, if we start making weapons ourselves we will lose all credibility in the international community.

    Why do we need nuclear weapons? Who is going to attack us?

    You know that the biggest threat facing democracies is terrorism, how do you drop a nuclear bomb on terrorists who are not state actors? How has having nuclear bombs helped the U.S. and U.K. fight Al Qaeda?

  32. #1129 –

    “Steven Kaye – which Leagues Club? I saw him get roundly booed at the NRL Grand Final. I assume the Leagues Club in question is a REAL one.”

    It happened, and took me quite by surprise. Made me feel very good about Nov 24. See, what you Lefties have to accept if you want to be able to come terms with the upcoming election result is that the PM is still, after all these years, very popular. His reactions to Sept 11 and then Bali cemented his “father of the nation” image and it has never really worn off.

    Now I know you all like to compare him with Keating in 1996, but it just doesn’t hold up. Sure, the PM is hated by people like you, but the wider community likes and respects him. Whereas that repulsive monstrosity Keating was roundly loathed by everyone except the True Believers.

  33. Glen – where are you going to put the waste? Port Melbourne? And, I’m sad to say, fusion is not that easy. It may never happen for more than a nanosecond or so on Earth. The thing is, we could probably generate all the power we need from far less risky technologies. The problem with thm is they tend to be decentralised and thus harder to keep making megabucks out of. Which isn’t a problem for me, but might be for you and Howie.

  34. [cemented his “father of the nation” image ]

    Steven Kaye, you mean “farter of the nation” surely.

    And how you used 9/11 and Bali was actually vomit inducing.

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