Newspoll: 53-47

Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.

UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:

This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. Anytime the LIbs need 2PP to get to the ALP’s primary, you know the ALP is still looking good.

    This poll was done straight after a cr*p day for the ALP. If it hadn’t shown a 1-2% improvement for the Libs, we could have put down our glasses and gone to sleep for 2 1/2 weeks.

  2. Well this is a good birthday present for me! 🙂

    If it is true, ill enjoy buying the Völkischer Beobachter tomorrow.

    Shall be a good day for Glen, lots of serenity 🙂

    Don’t worry you guys can still pray for a rate rise to get back to your comfort zone of 55-45. But on these figures we need only 1 or 2% 2PP to win 🙂 we still have a chance.

  3. Hmmm.
    Would be good to know more about the prefs.
    Leaving that issue aside, if we can take the 53-47 at face value, this contest might be about to get interesting …

  4. Glen – my birthday is on the 28th, so I am hoping that the 24th will be a good birthday for me and that we’ll have a new PM

  5. Dennis said that they surveyed 3500 voters for this. That’s what he said – not sure if he was confusing it with the marginal seat poll last weekend which surveyed the same number.

  6. Herald has “PM strill trailing” as the headline
    Frankly, it should be either “Libs still trailing” or “Caretaker PM still trailing”… I hate the way the incumbent gets that advantage in the press

  7. This is quite an important poll for the Libs. If it had been a shocker (say 44 or below), and assuming the rate rise happens, then Liberal morale could have collapsed by the middle of this week.
    Now it won’t collapse till the end of the week (or beyond …)
    Seriously though,the Govt’s held together a lot better than I though they would a few weeks ago (eg during APEC).

  8. 3 weeks to go and Howie yet to bring out a cannon of a housing or child care policy. I told you all that anybody can win this election and that it isn’t over yet and by these figures i am right.

    Tony Jones will have some humble pie to eat on Lateline sweet!

    Still both sides can take much from this poll.

    Tories – the Coalition is now finally competitive with the ALP and closed the gap to 53-47

    Labor Lovers – Primary rock solid at 47 and would win a substantial victory if the same on election day.

  9. Since the word ‘narrowing’ has been derided to death, let’s just call it ‘tightening’.

    6-5 to Labor on prefs? That seems unduly generous to the Coalition. Is Newspoll still using a crude measure based on 2004?

  10. Unless there is a big minor party vote (1990, 98), elections are won on the primary vote. 47-48% for the ALP is a rock.

    I tell you this now, if the ALP gets 47% of the primary, the one word that won’t be used on Nov 25 to describe the result, is “close”.

  11. These are not national figures. These are the 2PP results from the 18 marginal seat Newspoll conducted last week.

    Labor leads 53-47 2PP in the marginals.

    Doesn’t seem quite so bad now, does it? 🙂

  12. I had an awful dream about three weeks ago. The Liberal’s had won the election by eight seats.

    I woke up screaming…….. 🙁

  13. Adam made a good point on the previous thread. If Galaxy has 45-42 primaries, and 54-46 TPP, and Newspoll has 47-42 primaries and 53-47 TPP, then something is amiss. This is a flatline people, with the TPP skewed to lay the ground for the Shana to work his bs.

  14. Contrary to what I said above, in comparing the distribution of minor party preferences in 2004 with the distribution shown by this poll, I find they are in fact broadly consistent. In 2004 the Coalition got 38% of all minor party preferences. In this poll they are given 45%. Given that a lot of Green voters seem to have gone back to Labor, leaving a more conservative bunch of minors (Dems, CDP, FF, ON, gun-nuts etc), that is a reasonable split.

  15. ALP primary at 47%, that is solid, whilst the libs primary wavers all over the place.

    Looks like all the soft voters are within the lib primary, still on track for labor 92 seats.

    And Howards admission that his government cannot control the economy “Howard waves the white flag” as the headlines put it has not yet impacted.

    Extraordinary admission by Howard, the more pressure put on him and his government the more honest they become, cannot control the economy, underfund health, sorry for past mistakes.

    Time for a change to another government who can control the economy, fund health properly and will look to the future for Australia.

  16. These are the best figures for Howard this year. And, they will only get better. Voters are slowly recognising that the real thing is really what counts, and in the end, they will not trust Krudd.

    Labor are definitely on the slide.

  17. What we are seeing in the election is the absolute crucifixion of the minor parties. It really is a winner takes all election this one. Any other time in history 47% Primary would be a lot higher than just 53% TPP

  18. This is the strongest poll for the coalition all year. Anyone who thinks that Howard cant win from here is a fool. Note I said Howard not the Coalition. Without Howard they are toast with him they have a real chance to come from behind and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
    He is a totally ruthless and cunning fighter, quick on his feat and fighting on his own ground (the economy) he is slowly clawing back the ALP TTP lead. That said there is much cause for optimisim whoever wins this election will be sadled with high interest rates and a probable recession. A good one for Labor to loose.
    Live free, live as a warrior and always remember

    “The votes John Howard reject are the votes other parties accept”

  19. Nostro –

    We have seen nothing – absolutely _nothing_ that puts the TPP outside of the 45-55 MOE. Ever. In 2007. And this poll, just like the others, reflects that. There is no narrowing. There is no tightening. There is no last minute charge, saving the day. There is simply statistical noise.

  20. Thanks for the correction Adam. Im not fussing over these numbers, they are solid and they will light a firecracker up those in the ALP that need it.

  21. The Hun figures are different to the marginals one up last week. Not much though. Lets see what the figures are like after Wednesday’s RBA announcement…

  22. Gee Glen, you’re putting a fair bit of faith in the “big cannon” of child care (obviously Overington has seduced you).

    After an interest rate rise, and JWH’s warnigns of inflation can he go huge with any big spending?

  23. Thank God for the GG and Shana. Without their distortion of the actual polling situation, voters might actually think that the job of getting rid of this Govt and Workchoices might be done and their vote won’t make a difference.

    The biggest danger to an ALP win is not the polling numbers or trends but rather the underdog and sympathy vote for Libs.

    So as long as the MSM talk about a close result the more likley that we will have a landslide result.

  24. Well, 3 weeks out from the 1996 election, the coalition had 47% and Labor had 43% on primaries. Remarkably similar to this result.

  25. If this poll is accurate, since 2004 the Coalition primary has fallen from 46.7 to 42 (-4.7) while the Labor primary has risen from 37.6 to 47 (+9.4). The minor vote has dropped from 15.7 to 11 (-4.7). Since I expect the FF vote will rise, that means that the Greens are major losers. That is enough to explain a fall in the Labor share of minor preferences.

  26. I mean, Labor has a 7% higher primary than the election where they won the TPP in 1998! THe problem is that the Coal Primary is 4% higher. Can the minors really be this low?

  27. The Oz is reporting this as
    “THE Coalition has continued its march back toward poll parity with the latest Newspoll showing the government now trailing by just six per cent in the two party preferred stakes.”
    What the hell is the “march back to poll parity” bit? We really are in Nazi Germany!

  28. What a lot of nervous nellies here! Newspoll is all over the place with its figures. The average of all polls still has Labor in a very good position. But, as I said here last Saturday, forget the talk of Labor winning 100 seats. This will be close on the day.

  29. since this is a poll on 18 MARGINAL seats, it is indeed a good poll for Labor.
    Labor looks set to snatch the 18 marginal seats?!
    (though it is not as many as I’ve hoped 🙂 )

  30. Not a foregone that the RBA will raise interest rates.

    The stockmarket tanked slightly today, the US and UK are both facing creidt squeezes, $29 billion withdranw from one bank by nervous depositers.

    Oil at record highs.

    RBA could find enough reasons to hold off if they wanted to.

    Regardless of whether they do or not Howards panicked reaction to the prospect of increased rates did not come across well.

  31. Newspoll have been all over the place for past months – so much polling volitility.

    Coalition primary unchanged – Labor down 1 to 48

  32. Indeed Noocat, I have also been mulling over the ’96 numbers. This may indeed see a poll surge for Labor at the perfect time, the 24th. Heres hoping.

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