Newspoll: 53-47

Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.

UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:

This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. mad cow – tis true – my dad NEVER voted labor cos whitlam made petrol prices rise when he was sellin v8’s in joh’s qld – run those vietnam bastards over he said – getta haircut he said.

    mad – it’s a worry – i just agree with you – the liberal pillocks had NO experience in management – economic or otherwise – before being elected.
    if previous experience was a requirement then NO govt would EVER change.

    I had tim fisher in my cab last wednesday – i said that abbott had proved foolish – he said he had not heard and asked me to explain – i did – he lowered his head and said “we’re gonna get our asses kicked in 4 weeks time” – i asked him what libs did wrong – he said “nothing – ppl jhave ust stopped listening”

    for those ppl already heard this – sorry

  2. There was an earlier comment of mine to the effect that we have thousands of public servants ready to babysit new governments.

    Try and explain *that* to the your average joe 🙂

  3. BATTLING families are ready to take a baseball bat to John Howard on interest rates, with undecided voters claiming he’s desperate and out of touch.

    Confidential Labor Party research shows Kevin Rudd has been able to neutralise the core election issue – three years after voters turned on Mark Latham’s L-Plate inexperience.

    After taking the pulse from voters, the ALP says families with high debt levels are particularly scathing of the Coalition’s claim, that Labor can’t be trusted on the economy.

    Ahead of today’s announcement by the Reserve Bank, Labor says its internal polling reveals Liberal Party credibility on interest rates has taken a “battering”.

    “From a large deficit on the issue from 2004, it is now clear that Labor is level pegging with the government with those with an acute interest in the rates issue,” the ALP research says.

    “Among those who rate the issue as very important, including the majority of mortgage holders, Labor is now in an equal position with John Howard and the Liberals.”,22049,22717146-5001021,00.html

  4. In the last 3 weeks of the 1998, 2001 and 2004 campaigns the LNP lost a few point of their primary to ‘Others’ whilst Labor’s primary remained steady in two and lost 1 point once, to ‘Others’

    Now wouldn’t it be wonderful to see that in the next 18 days. The difference is of course it is Labor that has the big lead in primary.

    But in a dream world where the trend was repeated that would mean 47/40 13 ‘Others’ for a TPP 55/45 on election day. =)

  5. Alone, unloved in Bennelong
    Article from: The Daily Telegraph
    By Bruce McDougall

    November 07, 2007 12:00am

    JOHN Howard’s tortured bid to save Bennelong was summed up in a cruel political moment yesterday – the Prime Minister walked to a bus/train interchange in the heart of the knife-edge seat but found no one to shake hands with.

    An increasingly bemused expression crossing his face, Mr Howard anxiously cast about for some constituents – anyone – with whom he could have a chat.

    Even the cabbies at the West Ryde rank wanted nothing to do with the local member.

    ,,,,,,, The Coalition claims public perceptions of Mr Howard’s declining popularity and desperation in Bennelong is driven by opinion polls suggesting he is about to lose.

    But people like florist Marlene Galvin probably give a more accurate picture of Mr Howard’s likely fate.

    The “strong Liberal supporter” who has spent a quarter of a century in the electorate says she will be surprised if the Prime Minister doesn’t lose his seat.

    And her children, first time voters, already are lost to the Coalition cause.,22049,22714582-5001021,00.html

  6. I better do that again using the present Nielsen 48/41
    Following the trend of the last 3 elections it would end up something like 48/39 13 ‘Others’ approx TPP 56/44

  7. [VIETNAM veteran Michael Burcham was happy to vote Labor at the last election but has vowed not to do the same this time around, for one simple reason: Kim Beazley.

    A staunch Beazley supporter, the 63-year-old says he “doesn’t know and doesn’t care” about the Labor candidate in the former Opposition leader’s seat of Brand, the party’s former national secretary Gary Gray. Instead, he will vote for Mr Gray’s Liberal opponent, Phil Edman, going back to the way he had voted all his life until Mr Beazley came along.

    Mr Burcham is typical of many swinging voters who, according to the Election Modeling Project developed by political analysts John Black and John Lockwood, change the way they vote because they like a specific politician.

    The EMP research, published in The Australian last week, showed that in marginal electorates such as Brand and Cowan, the seat of retiring Labor MP Graham Edwards, the strong personal votes of retiring members could often be redistributed to the opposite party. This phenomenon had not been taken into account in the various polls taken in marginal seats, they argued.],25197,22716468-5006789,00.html

  8. Kina, the problem is that lots of things in the real world tend to act like a mattress. The further you push, the harder it resists.

    In this case its clear that a large number of people have decided to go labor and that that decision happened many months ago.

    Net result is some of the late drifters have already drifted.

    We’ve also seen a percent of two of what are basically liberal voters move towards a third party, then gradually drift back over the year. These are (my unscientific opinion) the fuzzy thinkers. Those that haven’t any strongly worked out philosophical stance, cant or wont believe Howard is dishonest, thought Rudd was cute, liked the tax bribes in the budget and so on. These people are also responding to the fear campaign.

    Problem for Howard is, how deep a well is the fuzzy thinkers? I suspect most of them have already moved back to Liberal’s primary.

    Maybe the last weeks will stir them up again? Who knows.

  9. As #1 Michael Says:

    Must add. !!!!!!!!

    Spent some time in certain company this evening.

    Cup done, subject turned to politics.

    Could not believe the mis, dis, non information in possession (or not) of some. Will this ignorance change under a new, not JWH, regime?

    So little to none understanding of public policy. But still pondering how to vote.

    In Boothby, again!

    They know all about Howard’s three Rs, or have they miscounted?

    Tomorrow will tell.

  10. let it end – for a paltry $30 deposit at u get $100 free bet on registration – u can (as i have done) bet this free $100 on maxine in bennelong – if only to reduce the odds on the rodent and u can bet the $30 on anything u like – like labor winning 😉 spread the word

  11. heh otiose.. I did that one before the election got started 🙂

    Now I’m up to wondering if Wentworth is worth another $20 at $3.05 🙂

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