Newspoll: 53-47

Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.

UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:

This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

Comments Page 25 of 26
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  1. Another “Liberal Source” speaks out.

    [And now a Liberal campaign insider has admitted as much.

    “That was the worst day we’ve had,” an anonymous source told The Bulletin, published tomorrow.

    “Abbott cost us two days,” the source said in reference to the constant fight to “spend” days campaigning on strengths rather than weaknesses or mishaps.

    “It was arrogant, it highlighted a blase approach to office … highlighted how long we’ve been here,” the source said.],21598,22716332-5005361,00.html

  2. Mad cow you are dead right. Your point highlights the lack of action being directed towards industry regarding climate change. Both parties in government will continue to allow industry to have a do nothing approach. Why do i say this the evidence is already their in regards to our state governments do nothing approach and all are Labor governments. It is short term thinking by people in government concerned only with themselves and not the future. I wonder what our politicians tell their children of their policy efforts.

  3. Glen, should I take that as a no.

    You do not accept that geothermal, solar thermal, solar updraft, wind, tidal, wave and biomass can provide baseload power?

  4. That is the theory George i have not adapted the definition; the basis behind the theory is that democratic states don’t fight conflicts against each other.

    George last time i checked Turkey had parliamentary elections this year, free and fair and they are a democracy. India is a democracy and clearly Pakistan is not, i don’t see your point?

  5. Glen Says:
    November 7th, 2007 at 12:10 am

    “Steven Kaye when trying to confront the left here i am reminded of Lloyd Braun’s quote from Sienfeld “Serenity Now, Insanity Later”.

    ShowsOn China are the next biggest threat to the world should it push to be a superpower. This would not be a problem if China was a democracy but they are a Communist State and so cannot be trusted”

    glen – i know you are an un-apologetic, ill-informed, irresponsible shit-4-brains – but your re-iteration of the lloyd braun’s quote over the past week is, well, repetitive and unoriginal

  6. So Turkey is a democracy Glen. That’s excellent. And they invaded Cyprus in the 70’s which is also a democracy? And they still occupy Cyprus Glenn? Do go on, your understanding of history and “democracy” is truly fascinating.

  7. Mad Cow

    Problem is with people understanding the details.

    No argument there, it all about changing the mindset. In fairness to the architectural and engineering professions, there is a major change slowly working its way through them to address the basic problems you have mentioned, with some areas being more advanced than others. And some governments are also moving that way, for example the Victorians have a high level of mandatory insulation on new buildings.

    But to take a counter example, in tropical north Australia where I live, there are a lot of new homes being built, and a large fraction of them have dark or even black roofs and walls! (And some of those roofs are unvented.) WTF? Have we learned nothing in the last hundred years?

    The people who chose those colours should be financially penalised. It actually adds cost to everyone’s energy bills because the (substantial) extra aircon demand generated by the dark roofs increases the baseload requirements, and the cost for that is spread around all consumers, even those who like me did the right thing and have white (and vented) roofs and very high levels of insulation.

    Most of the wasteage is actually in commerce/industry.

    Do you know what the split is between domestic and commerce/industry?

  8. Marky, I wouldn’t put it past Garret to understand the subtleties of things like energy efficiency. Problem is you never get to hear about it because there are very very few journalists who are tech savvy enough to ask the right questions. And besides we’re all too busy hearing about rude words and ear wax 🙂

  9. [ShowsOn Communism has failed the poor Chinese people and they are in poverty because they aren’t a democracy that is a major factor in why the Chinese are suffering.]

    Dear God Glen, China are HARDLY communist, they can be better described now as being run by a nationalist government. Hence they basically have a managed, mixed market economy where the government is the only purchaser, but not the only producer.

    Trade liberalisation has pulled 350 million Chinese out of poverty in the last 20 years. That is thanks to letting China into the WTO, and encouraging it to further liberalise.

    Would China be better as a liberal democracy? Probably, but are you suggesting Australia starts a war with China to make them a democracy?

    You seem to have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, so I suggest you write about another country other than China.

  10. Hey, Lefties, I wonder of Krudd will be quoting from the latest OECD report on broadband penetration? According to the report, we have now leapfrogged the US, Japan, Luxembourg, Austria and France to reach 22.7 subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, compared to an OECD-wide average of 18.8. We are now ranked 12th, compared with 17th in June 2006.


  11. A message from someone leaning to Labor to Kevin Rudd

    Keep on working hard and doing the right thing by the public. You are so close! Don’t lose the election from here.

  12. I never said they couldn’t mad cow just that they can’t do it as good as nuclear IMHO. I’ve also said that all options should looked at, but i am a supporter of nuclear.

    Otiose i hate to break it to you but saying ‘Serenity Now’ repetitively is the whole point behind that episode and also why it is funny IMHO.

    ‘i know you are an un-apologetic, ill-informed, irresponsible shit-4-brains’

    Isn’t it nice to know we have compassionate liberal progressives on this blog! Otiose i dare say you need a lesson in manners good sir and your personal attacks on me show you’ve lost all credibility one must refrain from deliberate and callus personal attacks on people.

  13. 1156Glen Says:

    “ShowsOn i bet if i asked someone if China hypothetically was going to invade us would it be better if we have atomic weapons to defend our nation, i bet most would support my position, though i am biased.”

    No Glen, biased is probably not the appropriate word here. Try out MORON as a better descriptor in this context.

    China is not going to invade us. They will simply buy what they want from us. As one of the largest economies in the world they have massive market power which they can bring to bear if they need to.

    The more addicted we become to the cash flow of the “Resources Boom” the more power over us we are handing them. That’s one aspect of JWH’s failing to invest the surpluses generated by the mining boom back into infrastructure and education.

    At worst a country like China may threaten us with military action/damage that would hurt our ability to export resources to its competitors or rivals. By threatening say, the fragile and combustible infrastructure of the NW shelf gas projects, or the Timor Sea gas fields, we have to spend disproportionate resources to protect them. All they would need to mount the threat is half a dozen long range cruise missile carriers that appear in international airspace off our coast every now and again. To defend, we would need multiple fighters, AWAC and refueling aircraft on standby ALL THE TIME. Massive cost to us.

    JWH and his crew have been the absolute worst and most incompetant managers of our defense in living memory. Just look at things like the F 111 retirement decision, JSF acquisition, Super Hornet (short ranged barely supersonic target for Sukhoi) acquisition, to name a few and consider their implications if as you seem to think, China (or Indonesia or India) may try and invade.

    Nukes are not the answer little boy. They are dirty, stupidly expensive, and tactically difficult to use effectively, particularly if you only have them in small numbers. And hey, Rattus is retiring the only potential delivery system we have for WMD’s, the F 111, anyway.

    As you may have notice i get really annoyed when people advocate rank stupidity with regard to something as serious an nuclear weapons.

  14. Would China be better as a liberal democracy? Probably, but are you suggesting Australia starts a war with China to make them a democracy?

    No need, China is already moving in the direction of market based democracy of its own free will, and has been for some time. President Hu has recently cemented in further changes to ensure that continues, it just takes time for old power structures to peacefully dissipate.

  15. Glen, finally you show what an ignorant fool you are.

    Firstly, I come from Cyprus, I am a refugee from there. Secondly, GREECE has nothing to do with Cyprus – Cyprus is an independent democracy and had been many years before 1974.

    So you see Glen, you know very little about what your profess to know about, your arguments are coming from god knows how many people sitting there at the moment in Lib HQ.

    And you didn’s answer my earlier response to your response on why you support the Liberal party. All this mary dance to show that you don’t know what you’re talking about. It was fun – wanna try again? Double or nothing?

  16. From Paul Kelly.

    [ANY survey of Kevin Rudd’s policies leads to an inescapable conclusion: that he wants a sustained increase in the executive power of the prime minister across the spectrum of government.

    Such an interpretation will be denied. It must be denied, since Labor says John Howard has assumed and abused too much executive power, implying that Labor will remedy such defects. But a tough-minded analysis of Rudd’s proposals for office leads to different conclusions.

    Remember the most important signal Rudd has sent about office is his plan to select the ministry as well as allocate the portfolios. “Let me be clear about this,” Rudd said on September 27. “I’ll be determining the composition of the Labor ministry should we be elected to form the next government of the country.”

    This is a direct strike for greater prime ministerial power over the factions and the caucus. Rudd’s bid for this power is unqualified and courageous. It sounds Whitlamesque in its “crash through or crash” intent. It is a break from tradition and reflects Rudd’s distrust of factional influence. It is inconsistent with the caucus rules and requires caucus consent. ],25197,22715143-7583,00.html

  17. “By 1974, dissatisfaction among right-wing Greek nationalists favoring the long-term goal of unification with Greece precipitated a coup d’etat against President Makarios. The coup was sponsored by the military government of Greece and led by Greek officers in the Cypriot National Guard. The Greek military junta and their supporters attempted to assassinate President Makarios. The new regime replaced Makarios with Nikos Giorgiades Sampson as president and Bishop Gennadios as head of the Cypriot Orthodox Church. Seven days later, on 20 July 1974, Turkey launched an air- and sea-based invasion of Cyprus, claiming its aim was “to re-instate the constitution of the Republic of Cyprus” per its obligation under the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee.”

    This coup by the Greeks “was dissolved after strong resistance from the Greek Cypriot people, but the constitution was re-instated only in areas of Cyprus not under Turkish army occupation.”

    The Greek Military Junta did have a role in causing the Cypriot Invasion.

    Cyprus at that stage clearly was not a stable democracy i am afraid IMHO and so does not count in your argument against democratic peace theory.

  18. Glen, your response re nuclear versus alternative power sources:

    “just that they can’t do it as good as nuclear”

    is vague to the point of being meaningless.

    Can’t do ‘it’.. I presume you mean ‘cant do baseload’.

    To which I say, Glen, in point of fact, you are wrong.

    Go do your research.

    My whole point in pursuing this is (and I’m not trying to be personally mean to Glen) is cultural divides aren’t just about the color of your roof or which car you drive…

    They also happen in technology and science. There really are people who believe that we have nothing to do with global warming. And there really are people who still believe that alternative energies cannot provide consistent baseload power.

    Howard truly believes as you do, Glen. For once I think he’s not lying. But it has him as a marked man. As a man of the past. As a force preventing us from growing in the same way that the clerics kept us in the dark ages.

    Believe me Glen, the Liberal Party isn’t entirely evil in its philosophy and it has or at least has had some very decent souls. But it is in your interest to see it purged.


  19. Now if I wanted to be rude, I’d quote Monty Python again..

    French Soldier: I don’t want to talk to you no more, you empty headed animal food trough wiper. I fart in your general direction. Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries.

    But.. I’m not like that.. I long for quiet happy obscurity 🙂

  20. 1175
    George Says:
    November 7th, 2007 at 12:01 am
    [Like it or not, after Tampa and 9/11 there was a big jump in the PM’s approval ratings; people liked the way he handled both situations. Then, a year later, his popularity was reinforced with the very sincere and sensitive way he reacted to the Bali atrocities.’

    A bit like the big jump in popularity the village idiot who runs the US got after 9/11… but now….

    Before 9/11 GW Bush was regularly lampooned on American TV as a slow thinking dolt without an idea and, otherwise unemployable. 9/11 made him a hero overnight. Unfortunately the original impression they had of him was correct and he became a slow thinking dolt starting a war.

    The first AC Nielsen poll after 9/11 saw ALP lose three points to 33 and the LNP pick up 9 points to 49. The final result was TPP 51/49. Tampa, 9/11 won Howard government – he was certain to lose otherwise. That 9 point jump saw him last to the line, losing 6 points of it in the process.

  21. Oh execllent, now it’s about “stable democracies” – Glen, you are all over the shop mate. The reality is that democracy or not, the United States has started most wars over the past 70 years, has invaded many countries that were expressing their own form of democracy, and you would support any “definition” of the term “democracy” to prove your point (whatever the hell that is).

    And hence we come back to your support of the Liberals and their stand on supprting the US with respects to their invasion of Iraq. Let’s put aside the 650,000+ Iraqis killed to date since the invasion, at least those alive now have “democracy”. Just beautiful

    I’m just gonna get a cup of coffee. So please, keep writing. Your arguments are very entertaining.

  22. And form today’s Australian:

    “According to a Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian last weekend, the Prime Minister has doubled his lead over the Opposition Leader on the crucial issue of who would best manage the economy. The gap now stands at 19 points, with a rise from 46 to 51 per cent for Mr Howard and a fall from 37 to 32 per cent for Mr Rudd.”

    Just in time for the rate rise!

  23. That’s what we call bass ackwards…

    I’ve been experiencing madness for 11 years.

    Come Nov 25, once I’ve woken up… the grass is going to smell oh so sweet 🙂


  24. Awesome Steven Kaye, there it is – the election will be won over who is the better economic manager. Why bother running primaries at all then?

    A bit like, “do you think the volvo or the holden is the safer car” to which 96% of respondents answer “volvo”…. and then go out and buy a holden

  25. Hey Stephen Kaye! two requests for you:

    1. Please stop organising Liberal party branch members to dot Mr. Howard’s morning walks – surely if his morale is that low… this silly charade won’t _really_ help!

    2. Please stop tipping off loony lefties as to the direction Howard’s morning walks will take, not even false dichotomies will save your man this time!


  26. Frank @ 220
    So Paul Kelly has to answer the charge that Rudd is dominated by union thugs considering he wants to override the factions – can’t be both, can it?

  27. Paul Kelly says:

    “But a tough-minded analysis of Rudd’s proposals for office leads to different conclusions.”

    Anyone want to interpret the purpose of this statement? Does he mean a literal straight line exptrapolation in every direction means…blah.

    Rudd said he wants to choose his own team if he wins the election therefore…Rudd intends to be a dictator in every single thing in Australia.
    Maybe the context of Rudd’s statement at the time should be remembered.

    Kelly seems to think that the Labor party is made from pussy cats too scared to say boo or stand up to Rudd if he gets too like a Howard dictatorship. On the contrary the Labor team won’t gutless wonders like Howard’s Cabinet.

  28. i’m speechless – noospoll – owned, operated, conducted and interpreted by NEWS ltd – lemme guess – ummmmmmmmmmmm – jeeeez i dunnoooo. – let’s see – ummmmmm – ljh is ……. bugger me – can’t think of anything positive to say ………. ummmmmmmmmm

  29. Yasoo George. look don’t worry about that Glen I wont even address that baby … at least ESJ had a sense of humor … this bloke is a PESEVENGI !!! LOL

  30. Despite what political differences we have I believe all of us want what’s best for Australia, we just have different ideas about how to go about it.

    I believe we can achieve much by debating our political positions without resorting to name calling and personal attacks we should be above this after all we are adults and should act like adults.

    Now i know most of you hate my posts so be it that’s your opinion and i respect your positions i may not agree with them but i respect them.

    We obviously believe in different political philosophies and you left of centre supporters have more confidence in government than I do. I have more confidence in freedom, less Government intervention into our lives especially when the market can do the job better.

    Freedom to choose your child’s school and to spend or save your own money instead of having the government spend it for you. That is why i am a Tory, George and that is why i vote Liberal, i don’t always agree with them but i like em better than the other mob so shoot me lol!

    Now we’ve probably got to get some sleep so we can be ready and waiting for the RBA’s decision, good night all happy dreams whatever they may be.

  31. Aw, Glen’s off to bed. Oh well.

    [Freedom to choose your child’s school and to spend or save your own money instead of having the government spend it for you]

    Interesting twist on why you vote Libs. So all the other nasty stuff just doen’t matter in the end. I’ll be right mate, what’s in my pocket mate, happy in my home mate.

  32. otiose, why worry.

    The perception is that the liberal party are better economic managers is hardly a secret. Its a cultural thing. A lot of ordinary people believe that those richer than them must be so because they are ‘better with money’.

    And this perception is drum beaten into people’s heads by the media. Partly out of bias, but mostly because, its a mantra. Lets not forget that Howard authored the bottom of the Harbour tax schemes and Costello has been sitting doing nothing watching the dollars roll in thanks to a world wide boom.

    Labor had to face both the oil crisis of the 70s and the world economic recessions of the 80s/90s. And at the end labor presided over 5 straight surplus budgets, a decreasing interest rate trend, that Howard inherited and huge microeconomic reforms.

    What is fascinating is this. Despite the perceptions about Labor, they’re still headed towards a landslide. It must say something about what people think about Howard in other areas.

  33. glen you have just written an argument for your liberal conviction – i’m very sure that ppl like mad cow or julie could negate/argue your major points – this blog would be a saner place if sensibly discussed this argument, and the rest of us will stay silent, though judgemental 😉

  34. Oh my, what is going on at the Oz, first time I’ve ever seen a fair balanced editorial that is all but praising Rudd and willing him on. Is this really Chris Mitchell?,25197,22715682-23069,00.html

    The Australian finds it hard to conjure up a constructive policy-based reason to re-elect the Government. The best we can say is the Howard-Costello team, while lacking vision for several years, has not been a disaster by any means. After starting with promise, the Coalition campaign has been a poorly executed shambles marked by mistakes, bad timing and stumbles. But when we look at the alternative, the difference is apparent only in areas such as Freedom of Iformation and broadband. We agree with Labor that Mr Howard is a clever campaigner and are sure he has a big-spending strategy for the closing weeks of the campaign. This is why we do not believe that interest rates are enough to carry Labor across the line. The evidence is that voters are far more sophisticated than Labor gives them credit. Mr Rudd must think hard about what he needs to do to stop the drift back to the Coalition, and get people who are on the fence to tick the Labor box on polling day.

  35. 1238: hehe 🙂
    Admittedly, examples of ‘true’ democracies going to war with one another are pretty rare – but there aren’t that many ‘true’ democracies to start with, and apart from in Europe, not many share common borders, which probably helps to keep the peace.

  36. mad cow
    You have to put

    before your words and close it with

    but leave out the spaces I put in to stop it from quoting what I just wrote 🙂

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