Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.
UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.
UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:
This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.
I think Steven is right. Newspoll also showed KR’s approval ratings are declining. Unanswered attack ads are doing the trick there.
WorkChoices does not seem to be biting as much as the union crowd thought it would. Obviously tomorrow would be pivotal. If it blows out to 55-45 after tomorrow its over.
If it goes down or stays at 53-47 by Newspoll Tuesday it will be a squeaker. Obviously the housing package from JWH will be critical too.
Glen, you’ve given 2 reasons.
First one was it gives up a nuclear weapons option.
Second one was baseload power.
Correct?
I won’t deal with the first. But of the second, can I please ask you to re-read my post. I make it quite clear that nuclear power is NOT the only base load option.
Why? Well the alternative are thus:
geothermal: bloody obviously base load.
wind: whilst the wind at any given location is a stochastic process, the wind as averaged over a number of sites in different states, is very predictable. Just go look up the CSIRO site.
solar: the thermal-steam route is well understood. go google for ‘molten salt storage’ baseload.. baseload.. baseload..
solar: pure photovoltaic – ever read about redox batteries? these things can store megawatt hours.
solar thermal updraft (solar tower): these things are inherently baseload. you cant build a greenhouse over square kilometers of ground without building in a huge thermal mass. but nevertheless you can double that storage capacity. just do your research please.
biomass: huge quantities of unused carbon out there already. not to mention all the land we waste on sheep that could grow biomass crops.
and I can go on.
and since Im a tech-head, dont forget that electrostatic confinement and dense focus fusion is now gaining traction over the tokomak and its relatives (we’re talking p-B fusion, in *small* reactors with very small end-of-life costs since the process is only very slightly radioactive.)
nuff said?
seriously dude.. do some research. This ‘baseload’ thing is losing all scientific credibility.
and you missed my point in the post. we need baseload power, but not nearly as much as you think. why? because we have a surplus now that we use on ridiculous things like heating water and a lot of processes (like desalination) are adaptable to peaks in power.
I don’t wish to be mean, but, please. If you still believe that nuclear power is the *only* way to provide baseload power, then tell me why. k?
lol Glen. Not a bad effort.
A club full of ironic senior cits who have personal experience of M. Kaye and wish to take the piss
Seems to be a lot of LNP people being on the TV and radio lately. Any Labor people getting a look in?
ShowsOn, what you fail to understand is that building nuclear power stations will inevitably prevent our nuclear scientists from going overseas to work. It will give first hand experience to our scientists and students in the nuclear field in their home country and probably lead to enrichment facilities, a crucial element in weapons production. I know we’ve signed the NPT but the NPT technically allows everything bar building weapons.
ShowsOn i bet if i asked someone if China hypothetically was going to invade us would it be better if we have atomic weapons to defend our nation, i bet most would support my position, though i am biased.
I never said we needed them i said we needed to keep the option open in case we do need them. How will we know what our security requirements will be 50 years from now, we may need them we may not, but wouldn’t it be frugal to keep the option open?
Kina they might all be out with Kev helping him spend his winnings
it is the only form of baseload power that does not have emissions,
*Rolls eyes*
mad cow, most illuminating.
I want the old Glen back.
It is one of the ironies of politics that the inner city is the heartland of the Greens. High polluting individuals being greens, but of course!
Techie Glen is good
It distracts him from crapping on about victories of glorious leader
Boll there is only one Glen, i just thought i’d tell you that.
So stop this crap saying I am 10 people because i am not.
So what do you do?
There are three of you to campaign. Do you campaign in Maxine’s seat and improve her odds ever so slightly despite the current army she has or do you move across to Mike Bailey and if nothing else work to destroy Hockey’s long term political career by improving the swing against him (as we did supporting Ellis against Bronwyn Bishop).
You would think long term it is better to help Bailey, but you just cant help yourself wanting to get stuck in in Bennelong.
Help me out here!!
Must be hearing voices or have a guilty conscience. I said nothing of the sort.
More personalities than “Sybil” 🙂
That last Newspoll is sure being misread a lot around here by conservative supporters. I don’t blame you for grasping at straws but at least interpret the figures correctly.
ESJ – Rudd’s Newspoll approval rating has declined by 1 point. It’s higher now than it was in mid October. You are at perfect liberty to draw whatever ratarsed conclusions you wish, but for heaven’s sake you could adhere however loosely to the facts …
#1148 –
“And how you used 9/11 and Bali was actually vomit inducing.”
Gee, George, I’m so sorry. Got any Milanta?
Like it or not, after Tampa and 9/11 there was a big jump in the PM’s approval ratings; people liked the way he handled both situations. Then, a year later, his popularity was reinforced with the very sincere and sensitive way he reacted to the Bali atrocities.
You and the likes of you say there are all sorts of Glens, the crazy tory, the sensible tory, the idiot, now cmon this is really giving me the red ass you guys i am seriously.
Harold – at last, someone I can blame for derailing Bronnie’s leadership ambitions! She should have become leader. It would have well-f#@ked the libs for several years. Ellis is sometimes funny but he has the brains of a toad. Bishop would have been so much more fun. And remind me … who ended up as leader after she got derailed?
[…the PM is still, after all these years, very popular.]
Yes, Steven, but if he’s THAT popular, why are all Liberal candidates removing his pictures and any real mention of him from their campaigning material?
Footscray
You take the approve and subtract the disapprove.
In the last 3 Newspoll’s Rudd’s net approve rating has gone from
+ 42
+ 37
+ 35
Clearly the Liberal ads are working and taking some of the paint off.
I think Latham was down to +29 in the last newspoll before the election so you can see the Liberals have had some success in wearing KR down as they have in the preferred PM stakes.
Having said that KR is still the favourite to win.
I see Dolly was in fine form on Lateline tonight. He looked dead. Jones had to apply electrodes to get a response.
Loved the coy “I don’t want to talk about who’ll be treasurer under Costello as PM, as we still have an election to win first” bit.
Dolly, it seems doesn’t like hypotherticals, except when it comes to pontificating on what interest rates may have been currently under a Labor Government.
And as for Pyne supposedly doing the numbers on a post-poll challenge to Howard as speculated-upon above, what’s the point in him doing that?
Until we has some idea of how many Libs are going to survive the deluge, why waste good shoe leather now? I mean, half of ’em probably won’t survive to take part in the post-election party-room leadership ballot in any event.
I realise it’s Chris Pyne we’re talking about here, but even he’s not that stupid.
[Like it or not, after Tampa and 9/11 there was a big jump in the PM’s approval ratings; people liked the way he handled both situations. Then, a year later, his popularity was reinforced with the very sincere and sensitive way he reacted to the Bali atrocities.’
A bit like the big jump in popularity the village idiot who runs the US got after 9/11… but now….
Harold @1165, come to Paterson. We need ya 🙂
Mad Cow, nice post(s).
I would add that the elephant in the room for energy use is efficiency (or lack of it). I have read several major technical reports from different sources, ranging from CSIRO to MIT to those well known radical commies the US Dept of Defence, and they ALL say that efficiency is the single biggest, cheapest, cleanest, easiest, fastest, and most effective step we should take in the energy use equation, and it can be fully implimented with existing off-the-shelf technology. It was given the first priority by all these reports.
Harold, Maxine is politely turning away offers of help. She has her army. Mike B may still need troops however.
Just ignore them, Glen.
ESJ – and on that basis, JWH’s have been 1, -1, 3, 3, 1, 4. Better make sure he’s not peaking too soon.
Well fellow friends, the time has come for me to go to bed. It has been an enjoyable day/night reading all the posts, and I look forward to being back again tomorrow.
Goodnight all
[ShowsOn i bet if i asked someone if China hypothetically was going to invade us would it be better if we have atomic weapons to defend our nation, i bet most would support my position, though i am biased.]
WTF are you going on about? China aren’t going to invade us. We were one of the first countries to recognise the P.R.C. We sell more to China than the U.S.
You may as well of said “if New Zealand is hypothetically going to invade us….”
Stop being silly.
Primary vote is all that counts at this point. Alas.
Yes Footscray,
As Steven Kaye has pointed out to be at that level after 12 years is pretty good.
The new guy should have a favourable rating. The point is if the net figure for Rudd gets into the 20’s then Liberal will win. People have a settled view on JWH, any doubts about KR translates into votes for JWH because of the uncertainty factor.
This is because Labor has made the cardinal error of believing its own propaganda and has not responded to the attack ads.
Steven Kaye when trying to confront the left here i am reminded of Lloyd Braun’s quote from Sienfeld “Serenity Now, Insanity Later”.
ShowsOn China are the next biggest threat to the world should it push to be a superpower. This would not be a problem if China was a democracy but they are a Communist State and so cannot be trusted.
[ShowsOn China are the next biggest threat to the world should it push to be a superpower. This would not be a problem if China was a democracy but they are a Communist State and so cannot be trusted.’
yeah, that’s right Glenn, democracies don’t invade other countries, do they? Now you’re just being idiodic.
ESJ – a net rating of 4 is GOOD? No disrespect, but you guys are deluded. Anyway, we shall see what we shall see, and the good news is that it’s now a day closer. And might I point out that the last couple of weeks is when the ads roll out, unless we are all much mistaken. Who knows what delights await us?
Anyway, at least you’re polite, which is something I always hope for in a right winger. Sadly, having known many over the years, I find I’m often disappointed. C’est la vie! Et bon nuit.
Just Me @1178, agreed.
Problem is with people understanding the details. Most of the wasteage is actually in commerce/industry. Give you a couple of good examples here.
My local shopping center is one of those barely insulated tin sheds with a big air conditioning plant. There’s a coffee shop. They have a glass cabinet with heat pump cooling (cakes). Next to that is a glass cabinet with an electrical heater (for pies). Next to that is yet another glass cabinet with cooling. You can imagine how much electricity is being burnt trying to keep one cabinet cool while the next one is being heated 😉 And all this wasted energy just adds more load to the whole center’s air conditioning.
Our local pool is heat pump heated. Problem is, the council saw fit to spend 7 million on the pool, and nearly nothing on windbreaks to stop the winter winds. Then they decided the heat exchangers for the pool were a vandal risk so they installed a *solid* wall around it. So the heat exchangers chill the air and then the air sits inside this compound with nowhere to go. And if you really wanted to be clever, remember, next to the pool is a sports field. They pump underground water to water the field. The same water is a perfect heat source for the pool. Double or triple the energy pumped for the same amount of electricity. Not to mention recycling the heat from the waster water that leaves the pool’s filters. That sorta thing
Mad Cow – 1177 We may just have to work our way up the F3. Beats spending the night in Bradfield.
Crispy – friends had offers of help declined 5 weeks ago. Agreed. The machine is already well in motion.
[The new guy should have a favourable rating. The point is if the net figure for Rudd gets into the 20’s then Liberal will win. People have a settled view on JWH, any doubts about KR translates into votes for JWH because of the uncertainty factor.]
Um, why on earth is +20 a magic number? Rudd is leading prefered PM, and has an approval rating in the 60s. I have no idea how these figures are bad.
But anyway, here are the net approval – disapproval rating from the last Newspoll before the recetn elections.
Hewson was -2 and lost in 1993
Howard was +8 and won in 1996
Beazley was +17 in 1998 and lost
Beazley was +4 in 2001 and lost
Latham was +23 in 2004 and lost
1098
Edward StJohn Says:
November 6th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
1.The ALP attack ads have been limp.
2.JWH has got some momentum.
3. The Liberals will get some late swing back.
ESJ I think the horse has already ‘bolted’ mate: too late to close the gate (gap) now unless JWH has a radically different last-2-weeks stragegy hidden in his sock draw where the multi billion dollar ‘surprise surprise’ surplus once resided.
I am of the school of thought that thinks Newspoll will bounce back to 55/45 next week and the notion of a ‘narrowing’ some are using binoculars to find is mythical.
Not that it will make much difference, given the interest rate rise will dominate the media for a day or two whilst Rudd and Costello play out the ‘blame game’ dribble again, but I hope Julia Guillard is ‘careful’ in the debate with Joe Hockey-
Why ? [Oh God, I did a Rudd, asking myself a question]
The residue of sexism is nowhere near ‘gone’ , so a woman being a ‘smart mouth B*^*&ch’ scoring points off a knockabout image ‘bloke’ like Hockey might turn off a few of our less, ummm, ok I will use the concept ‘educated’ [read moron] swinging voters. Maybe that is why they put this debate around the RBA meeting.
Glen; Kudos to you [at least the night shift Glen] for your long post explaining why you vote Liberal. There is unsurprising substance in your assertions even if I disagree with your interpretation of the Howard era for the most part.
We face 24 hours of ‘yawn’ from both sides about the RBA decision and the mixed messages [strong economy/not, not not responsible for interest rate hikes/beware the inexperienced Treasure] from Costello and JWH WILL confuse each other, let alone an electorate with chronic election fatigue already. Bring on the 24th, please.
Insanity appears to have overtaken serenity.
But George when have democracies ever gone to war with each other?
Unless you are going to classify the US civil war. Look here my dear George.
Franco-Prussian War 1870 – not democracies
Boer War – not democracies
WW1 – not democracies
Russo-Polish War – not democracies
Sino-Japanese War – not democracies
WW2 – not democracies
Korean War – not democracies
Vietnam War – not democracies
Falklands War – not democracies
Gulf War – not democracies
Afghanistan Conflict – not democracies
Iraq War – not democracy
The evidence is there George, democracies don’t go to war with other democratic countries. This is my opinion but i invite you to come up with examples where 2 genuinely democratic nations have fought a war against each other?
Glen still hasn’t answered whether or not that he accepts that there are other sources of baseload power beside nuclear and fossil fuel.
[ShowsOn China are the next biggest threat to the world should it push to be a superpower. This would not be a problem if China was a democracy but they are a Communist State and so cannot be trusted.]
WTF do you mean “push to be a superpower”. Do you even know how superpowers are defined!?
Oh OK, so we should stop selling them coal that they use to build their powerstations that supplies their industry, which grows their economy, which will make them a superpower – oh, and take millions out of poverty.
You’re such a simpleton Glen.
Define democracy,
define genuine,
define war…
then we’ll chat, Glen.
In the Newspoll the Liberal primary vote fell to 37% and Labor lost a point to the greens,which comes back.
What a Tory comeback ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!
Made Cow i have accepted, nuclear fusion is a fantastic possible future base load power source and geothermal if it was possible too.
But nuclear is a tried and tested energy source.
ShowsOn Communism has failed the poor Chinese people and they are in poverty because they aren’t a democracy that is a major factor in why the Chinese are suffering.
Oh I see Glen, you keep adjusting your definition – no problem, shows you have no real basis for your argument. So now it’s what you define as a democracy doesn’t go to war with a, again as you define, a non-democracy.
So why is the US supporting India, Pakistan and Turkey – that’s right, they’re “democracies” and China a “dirty little commies”. I get it now – thanks for that Glen, now it’s all clear to me – thanks for that!
chrispydog @ 1060,
yes, it’s look like the war in Iraq now spills over its neighbor Pakistan. What a mess! who are to blame?