Newspoll: 53-47

Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.

UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:

This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. And given the news tomorrow on every front page will be Melbourne Cup, this may not have the usual impact.

    btw Galaxy must be pissed. Their poll is now forgotten.

    I’m betting after the eleciton, there will be some pretty big noises made by the polling firm about each others “accuracy”

  2. honestly, i really think Nielson is the only poll that has continuing credibility in the last 2 months.

    Newspoll has been a joke with its tailored results. it seems to be producing numbers at will to suit their narrative. When they wanted Howard out and Tip in they produced that 59-41 joke then when the old guy wouldn’t leave and they tried to sell the team, it sprung back to 54-46. Newspoll has been a farce for 2 months.

    Morgan is clearly and consistentl over stating the ALP lead except for when it occasionally violently jerks the other way.

    Galaxy seems reasonable ,although an inbuilt tilt to the Coalition.

    AC Nielson is by far the reliable poll.

  3. How the SMH is reading it (but of course they’re all biased socialists so what do you expect)

    A Newspoll out tonight shows little change in Australians’ voting intentions for the November 24 poll.

    It indicates a small improvement for the Howard Government, although the shift is within the poll’s margin of error.

    Newspoll puts the two-party-preferred vote at 53 per cent for Labor, down one percentage point, and 47 per cent for the Coalition, up one point.

    The Coalition’s primary vote is unchanged, while Labor’s is down one point to 47 per cent.

  4. Labor voters, it is not a good look to start alleging that the polls are all rigged when we get one we don’t like. That’s what Nostradamus etc were doing earlier in the year, and they were rightly ridiculed. There’s no evidence that Newspoll is rigged. We were all very happy with Newspoll when it was showing Labor on 60%, so we can’t change our tune now. It’s possible that these last two Newspolls are aberrations, but it’s equally possible that this is indeed The Narrowing. I for one have always expected some narrowing, and so has Rudd. We will have to wait for more polls to see if this is a trend or merely a blip.

  5. Adam

    In the last newspoll the greens got 4%. Assuming they have got that again – it’s hard to imsgine it being any lower – that would mean 3.2% to Labor (based on an 80-20% split). The remaining 7% would split about 50/50 giving Labor another 3.5%. Total 47+3.2+3.5=53.7. The only other unknown variable is whether the 47% has been rounded up and if so from what base. If it was say 46.6 then the above would give Labour 53.3.

    Don’t want to play with figures too much but am I on the right track here? It does seem that Labor probably has something more than 53%.

  6. I am bemused by Newspoll’s erratic nature of late, how 500 000 can change their votes for no obvious reason/event is a mystery to me. However, Galaxy and AC show that noone has since the election was called.

  7. Well polls really do gyrate. Betting markets fluctuate. I have been tracking where the leaders are travelling and that hasn’t changed. Howard is defending the 5-10% Tory seats and Rudd has been attacking them and every so often (lately more so) heading into tiger country of 10% plus Troy seats. This has not changed and if the ALP were concerned it would have. ALP supporters, start worrying when Rud starts visiting seats like Bendigo.

  8. Hear, hear Adam.

    Newspoll isn’t rigged – it’s methodology might be wonky – but I’m no statistician, so I wouldn’t know.

    The Oz rigs it’s interpretaiton of newspoll, but that’s a different matter.

  9. Declaimer for having called the Election on May 28th for the ALP.

    If Interest rates rise I can’t see the Liberals getting any closer, but and there is a possibley rates don’t rise for the RBA may be concerned about the developing crisis in the US home loan market I wouldn’t rule the Liberals out from snatching a very narrow win.

    As I have felt for sometime the poll numbers have slowly moved back toward the Liberals from 60-40 to 53-47 but we have seen once ot twice before just as the Liberals look back in the game the polls swing back toward the ALP.

    I’m still tipping an ALP win but with less than 90 seats.

  10. I think we would do well to remember that Newspoll has Rod Cameron nonplussed with it’s swings. If he thinks it’s become unreliable i wont argue.

  11. I don’t care if labor win by 1 seat or 40 seats. It’s like that old Collingwood joke.
    “What’s better than beating Collingwood by 10 goals?
    Beating them by 1 point”
    with apologies to any Collingwood fans.

  12. Galaxy had Primaries: ALP 45 – Coalition 42, with TPP: 54-46

    Newspoll had Primaries ALP 47 – Coalition 42, with TPP: 53-47

    So what’s changed? Just how you skew the preference flows…and its all within MOE, so no one is wrong…

    but, hey, the primaries for ALP are solid

    and the coalition primary is stick at 42 – still. plus ca change, alex

    and i agree with whoever said that ordiarily a 47 primary would give a higher TPP than newspoll

    frankly i reckon these polls are as about as variable as fashion sizes

    wasn’t it the queen of hearts who said things mean “what she says they mean?”

    sounds like dennis shanahan in drag. (sorry if it creates an ugly image, but he can drag-up just like alex…..with chris pyne as the third little maid from skool, perhaps!)

  13. Adam @ 52: well put, imo. It’s still within the MOE, but even if it has narowed, surely the libs would be worried that with less than 3 weeks to go, their primary vote is still way behind Labor.

    Grog @ 51: encouraging, though, to see a paper actually talking about MOE. Earlier in the year, a 1 point move was considered massive in the MSM (probably will be in the GG). Antony on Lateline spoke of a narrowing in the polls, but also noted that th emovement was not statistically significant.

    Even Shanahan said on Sky that it wasn’t a really big deal. He still said the govt was right in it, but he will always say that, won’t he? And after all, he can spin it how he wants, it’s his prerogative. But i thought it was interesting that he mentioned margins of error on one occasion and if anything said the move was only slight. Bet he writes something different tomorrow.

    Maybe the blogosphere is starting to have some sort of impact ont eh way these things are interpreted in the MSM.

  14. Irrespective, Arbie Jay at 45.

    I am sure the electorate are well and truly aware that the interest rates will go up, sooner rather than later, and that Howard snookered them last time round. And is having another go.

    It’s all in the mind.

    ps thanks for info on technobummer.

  15. Yeah BXTom they’ll all have a good view of Sydney from Kirribilli House lol. Sorry you left yourself open to that.

    Funny how you all lauded Newspoll when it showed 60-40 but now that some narrowing has occurred somehow they are biased or inaccurate, hmmm hypocrisy my dear misguided comrades.

  16. #21 re. the rather strange preference flows. Adam raises many good points. Unfortunately that wasn`t one of them. I`ll have to take the credit for it myself. lol

  17. Ninemsn is spot on:

    As with all polls there is a two per cent margin of error but Mr Howard won’t be considering that – these figures give him hope and the perception of a fighting chance in an electorate that has been hard against him in the opinion polls all year.

  18. Remember that polls are indicative only and not worthy of such in depth analysis. ALP supporters should settle down and give Glen some time to dream.

  19. Completely agree with Adam. Each poll is a snapshot. Theyre going to bounce around. Average all the polls and their trends. Yes there is a tightening from 60-40. There always was going to be. But Rudd is still well ahead by at least 6%. Interest rates go up on Wednesday. Back to 55-45 where it will stay. And Labor hasnt even started its campaign advertising to any extent. But God, I could still use that Shanahan voodoo doll someone mentioned earlier today!

  20. “Galaxy had Primaries: ALP 45 – Coalition 42, with TPP: 54-46

    Newspoll had Primaries ALP 47 – Coalition 42, with TPP: 53-47

    So what’s changed? Just how you skew the preference flows…and its all within MOE, so no one is wrong…”

    It depends on the composition of the minor party vote. If the figure for the Greens is much less in Newspoll than Galaxy, then this might explain a smaller preference flow to Labor.

  21. anybody who can’t see that newspoll has been a crock the last 2 months is blind.

    their numbers have been used to try and set agendas.

    Rod Cameron is a very level headed guy( i sometimes scream at my tv that he is too level headed lol) when giving his analysis on tv, and when he said the other night that Newspoll has been a joke and has lost relevance he hit the nail on the head.

    this is not an erratic response to this poll. it is just a response to the poll that Shamaham boasted” we know newspoll because we own it”.

    it is all irrelevant because the result on the day will be about 90+ seats.

  22. Although a lot can happen in the last 3 weeks, this result needs to be put in perspective.

    Who’s position would you rather be in at this stage of the campaign? Had you asked Rudd at the start of the year whether he’d be happy with 53/47 with 3 weeks to go and an interest rise on the way, he’d not have believed his luck & would have jumped at it.

  23. Noocat nothing has changed, commanding lead and now Rudd’s ‘itll be close’ is remotely believable. Sells papers, stops sympathy votes, wins elections. Everybody wins.

  24. Let’s be honest – if this poll had been 55-56% we would have declared the election over. So we have to admit this is not all sunshine und flowers for the ALP.

    But that said, it is interesting that galaxy has a lower primary but higher 2PP for the ALP.

    Who is riight we shall see on the 24th.

    I can;t wait to see them argue over what consitutes an accurate pool – 2PP or primary. or the primary in the last week, the primary averaged…

    I guess it would mean big $$$ for them to be right. Morgan got it wrong once, and said bye bye to any credibility.

  25. Galaxy was 54/46 so I was expecting 55/45 or the same. Yes I concede there appears to have been a narrowing. ACN will confirm if that’s the case. I now expect the coalition to firm in the betting accordingly.

    Isn’t the betting a fair dinkum serious indicator or what? Some kind of narrowing has been factored into the betting from day 1. What about Centrebet shortening their odds from 3.70 yesterday.

    The next person who tells me that the betting is not relevant, please, give me a break.

  26. thanks grog. i trust the point remains valid, although i suspect that alex would look just as distasteful in that humpty dumpty outfit! cheers

    btw,and the word i wanted for the coalition primary vote is STUCK

    PS i’m not migrating to crikey, i prefer the congeniality of this terrain – even when it includes “trolls”…

  27. If you all squirm this much over 53-47, think of how bad you’ll all be if it gets to 51-49 or 52-48, you’ll all be yelling “Serenity Now!” lol.

  28. Glen #70

    “Funny how you all lauded Newspoll when it showed 60-40 but now that some narrowing has occurred somehow they are biased or inaccurate, hmmm hypocrisy my dear misguided comrades.”

    For once, I agree with you entirely. You’re still gunna lose, but.

  29. #78 Noocat, just that on those figures, Galaxy has 69% of preferences running Labor`s way, Newspoll 55%. If Adam is right, 2004 flows were right in the middle on 62%. Sure, we don`t have figures to 1 decimal place for these 2 polls, but either way, it`s a fairly significant difference.

  30. But look at least we have a contest, instead of it being 3 weeks out from an election and being 20 points down its much better to be 6 points down granted its based on Newspoll’s preference calculator.

    Hey i wonder if Sol will come out and say the narrowing has occurred he always said there would be but has yet to be proven until today.

    What must strike fear into the hearts of the Labor Lovers is that this is the best poll result for Howie and the Tories since December or November last year.

  31. Both Tony and Anthony Green looked and sounded a little subdued as they discussed these numbers tonight on lateline.

    I think they both had that ol’ sinking feeling again!!

    Newspoll TPP was 59-41 at the start of September. Tomorrow’s 53-47 makes for a 6 point improvement in L-NP position over the last 8 weeks.

    With three weeks to go, is 50-50 TPP really out of the question?

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