Newspoll: 53-47

Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.

UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:

This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. Mad Cow, did your nuclear critique disappear in the meltdown last week?

    Shaboh – good rumour, but I think you have the wrong daughter.

    Glen, re the race card… I have Howard on tape somewhere in an interview refusing to dismiss the suggestion that there could be terrorists among the Tampa refugees.

  2. Can anyone tell me why this Downer character is allowed to hold any public office at all? Furthermore where he finds the temerity to show his face in public? If the Libs lose they and we will be far better served by his retirement. He wants to be treasurer? Holy mother of God.

  3. For all of you out there whinging about media complacency, you have just missed Tony Jones get absolutely stuck into Alexander Downer. Lexi was gobsmacked, to say the least, and I’ve never heard that before.

  4. MarkTwain -reading what the right wing warriors have to say probably serves number of cultural and philosopihical purposes. I dont think its as simple as ‘if you dont like thm dont read them’ and it gives people on sites like these plenty to talk about.

  5. Dazzamack from Perth: a little uncharitable of you! Don’t speak ill of the dead.
    This must be the 500th time this year Downer has appeared on LL: can’t Tony Jones find another guest?

  6. Glen’s conservative talking points about Howad and the US debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan are hysterically funny.

    You know, nobody in the world thought that Saddam wasn’t the biggest threat to world peace since Uncle Joe Stalin, and why not just bomb the Taliban and leave the country to chase that even bigger threat?

    What naive and disingenous twaddle. The whole WMD thing was cooked, and even Colin Powell knew it when he went through the motions of selling it to the world at the UN.

    Anyway, take a look: Afghanistan is a mess, Iraq is an even bigger mess. Pakistan is on the brink of massive civil unrest (and they DO have a nuke bomb), while Bush is trying to hold Turkey back from invading Kurdistan.

    All of the above are intrinsically connected, and all revolve around the Axis of Idiocy, one George W Bush.

    Yep, Howard signed us up to that, and we should never forget what a disgraceful pack of lies and stupidity it was, and still remains.

  7. Mad Cow it’s just that I clipped it and saved it in a word file, if you wanted me to re-post it for you some time. It was a very eloquent and rational piece.

  8. VoterBoy – I told you they were once a progressive paper. MarkTwain’s right, they should just change the names for the pre-poll editorial.

    Piers used to edit the Herald-Sun (when it still had a hyphen, and Vic had a Labor government under J. Cain). Piers’s mission was well known – he used to brag about it: Rupe had told him to finish off the Cain government, so he did his damndest and I guess he had a bit of effect. Why Rupe gave a rat’s for the Cain goverbnment was and remains a mystery, but there you go. Maybe he just likes to be seen as a powerful man. Anyway, Piers was a poisonous, horrible fellow then (as I know from first hand experience of his ways!) and as far as I can see nothing has changed, except that he looks more like a cane toad than ever. After the Hun he moved on to some News Corp gig in LA but didn’t last (there was a rumour about young women not actually caring for his ministrations, but of course we don’t deal in rumours here!) and he came back to Aus, and I think straight into his current job or one like it.

    Goodness me, it’s right wing remininscence night tonigh!

  9. Well if there was any doubt left about ABC radio being infiltrated by the right…

    News at 10pm, 90 seconds of Howard’s day including his comment about Rudd and mee-tooism. Then 60 seconds of Rudd’s day with no mention whatsoever of him backing the winner TWICE. Following that, 30 seconds of supposedly ALP material (to balance out the Lib time) which ended up being a rehash of mentioning Kevin Reynolds again and his ‘Howard will be gone’ line, in the worst possible light.

    I mean honestly, wtf has happened to the ABC???

  10. I have to go out now for a few hours, so good night, and here’s hoping that any rates rise tomorrow is short-lived thanks to the superb economic management of Mr Swan.

    Question: Who’s tonight’s designated batter for Glen? (hat tip – Kina @ 261)

  11. Downer never fails to sound like a snotty privileged spoilt high school brat. I believe he was assigned to foreign affairs because it was the place where he could do the least harm and where his public servants would do all the work for him.

  12. Dario, are you watching Tony Jones absolutely barbecue Alexander Downer? He’s actually made Lexi come out with some of the truth on Pakistan, rather than what Condi tells him to say. It was genius.

  13. Dazzamack (1001)

    I think if Rudd was sprung having a threesome with Bronwyn Bishop and Amanda Vanstone he would receive a massive sympathy vote.

  14. @1070

    Downer said that he wants to bumsuck Howard…business as usual, nothing new here…

    Sam old same old, interest rates will always be lower under the Liberals cause they said so, never mind that Howard as treasurer holds the record, that’s about it. He just said ‘Its a great pleasure Tony’ with the gusto of someone who’s eaten one too many GHB laced toys.

  15. [Dario, are you watching Tony Jones absolutely barbecue Alexander Downer? He’s actually made Lexi come out with some of the truth on Pakistan, rather than what Condi tells him to say. It was genius]

    Nah, I just couldn’t sit through that. The guy makes me feel ill just hearing his voice. I’d love nothing better than to smack him repeatedly with a piece of 4 x 2.

  16. Yesterday on Sky News they had a piece all day about Peter Garrett’s gaffe. OK but no news piece on Thompson’s stupid remarks. Why is that. They always show the Weasel in “I think” a positive spin.

  17. Now in the background of Lateline (right behind our Tony) Downer and Hockey seem to be wrestling over what seems to be a pink donut laced with toys laced with GHB. Now theyve knocked over a camera…..

    It reminds one of those tacky Japanese monster movies like the bohemoith vs the Leviathan….

    Tony hasn’t noticed yet….

    Now Downer and Hockey seem to be taking off their clothes and ……..

  18. Dario certain ABC staff have become so traumatised by 11 years of Tory government that they have become gun-shy. Its also obvious they have been to re-education camps that are run by Janet Albrechtsen

  19. {Nah, I just couldn’t sit through that. The guy makes me feel ill just hearing his voice. I’d love nothing better than to smack him repeatedly with a piece of 4 x 2.]

    Hey Dario, you have the same dream as I do? what a coincidence!

  20. I have insider word that Howard will be on A Current Affair tomorrow night so that Tracy Grimshaw can tell him the new official interest rate.

  21. Tory Crimes, as much as I agree with you about the ABC, it should be said that journalism in general has suffered from generational change and cost pressure.

    Real journalism.. honest scholarly stuff.. is hard work. And journalists in general have gotten plain lazy (and time/cost pressured).

  22. “Vera
    hey shaboh! did you see the look on Howards face when his horse got beat? Looked like he’d just sucked a lemon..”

    I just saw it. The Weasel still has a dig at Rudd about “me-tooism”. What a despicable man. Jimminy Cricket needs to be squashed.

  23. Re the Rudd rumour. I have sent out feelers through a network of well placed Labor staffers and they have not heard a thing. HAD NOT EVEN HEARD THE RUMOUR. If there was widespread panic, they would know. Dont up the antidepressant dose yet!

  24. Dario, George, Barbara – those are seriously weird fantasies. Not that I oppose any expression of stuff between consenting adults, etc etc etc; but DOWNER! Yuk. Unless you were spanking him on, say, the head. That would be ok.

  25. gday – pant pant pant – bugger me – i been chasin’ this thread for a few hours now – last post i read (round 500 odd) was some deep dark secret re rudd that crikey was gonna regurgitate on friday – ummm – sorry – ljh sent our kids to war with NO justification – ljh bribed iraq with $300 MILLION to saddam to facilitate arms against our troops – ljh – ljh sent refugees (as proven by their eventual acceptance) to hells attolls – ljh deported australian citizens (rau, solon) ljh ignored the plight of 353 sievx deaths – ljh ignored …………. ;( IF rudd shagged his sisters b/f – I DON’T CARE

  26. [I would like to revise my ALP win prediction from 85 to 80 seats. I am getting the feeling this will be a squeaker.]

    Interesting, this makes me want to move my prediction from 85 to 90.

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