The verdict

Verdicts on the debate in today’s papers divide neatly along organisational lines, with News Limited observers saying it was close and Fairfax giving a clear win to Rudd. The commentator who comes closest to calling it for Howard is Sid Marris: speaking with colleague Dennis Shanahan on a video at The Australian’s website, he judges that “John Howard was stronger, but Kevin Rudd didn’t suffer a loss”. Shanahan decries the “Rudd-centric” worm, and says only that the Opposition Leader “won because he didn’t lose”. Also on the video are Paul Kelly, who says Howard was “very much on top at the start but I think Rudd finished better”, and Sky News man-of-the-hour David Speers who gives the debate to Rudd “on points”. In the newspaper itself, Matthew Franklin gives Kevin Rudd a “narrow victory” in the face of a “well above par” performance by the Prime Minister. Doug Conway of the Courier-Mail calls it a draw, offering the wearily familiar assessment that “neither Mr Howard nor Mr Rudd made a disastrous blunder, nor did they land a lethal body blow on their opponent”. Only Mark Kenny of The Advertiser breaks ranks, saying Rudd “unquestionably had the better of it”, while echoing the customary caution that “the longer term political significance is unlikely to be great”.

By contrast, the headline in The Age tells us of “Rudd’s decisive win”. Michelle Grattan declares Rudd “the clear winner”, “sounding confident and convincing against an opponent whose energy flagged and temper flared”, while Tony Wright rates it “Rudd’s night on most fronts”. Similarly, the Sydney Morning Herald’s Peter Hartcher reckons Rudd the “clear winner”, and says he has “cemented his claim as frontrunner”. The assessment of the Canberra Times is that Rudd won “because he didn’t debate. He had a plan to sell and he came, he saw and he sold”. In the other non-News Limited paper available to hand, The West Australian, a report by Chris Johnson and Shane Wright talks of Rudd “clearly getting the better of the Prime Minister”. Political editor Andrew Probyn also gives it to Rudd, saying the Prime Minister was “on the back foot … over WorkChoices, climate change, leadership and interest rates”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

834 comments on “The verdict”

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  2. If Mal Brough is so outstanding, why did Howard have to campaign in his electorate last week? Longman can’t be as safe for the Liberals as one might think.

  3. This worm fiasco just highlights, yet again, that Howard is NOT a brilliant strategist. It was stupid for him and the Liberal party to make such a big deal of it and even more stupid for allowing the kind of sabotage that happened last night.

    I have actually lost count of the number of times this year that Howard has kicked an own goal. How many have there been? It seems just about every month. At any rate, he was either once a great strategist and has now lost it, or he never was, but simply relied on people like Arthur Sidonidos (sp?), his former chief of staff, and a weak Labor party.

    Whatever the case, now that Labor has shaped up as genuine alternative government and Arthur has gone, this year has really exposed just how much of a myth has been created about Howard being such a brilliant politician. And on top of his incompetence in this area, his policies have been crap too. The number of backflips and corrections (see the latest: Abbott’s watering down of the hospital takeover policy on Friday, and Turnbull’s watering down of the Nuclear Power plants stance today) has been huge, especially since the last election.

    The ONLY thing that is stopping Howard from facing a real annihilation at the polls is the favourable media bias. If they, especially News Ltd, reported on REALITY and not just a pro-Howard version of it, then the TRUTH would become even more powerful and Howard would be swept from power by a tidal wave.

  4. How naive do the Libs think people are? Of course Lib HQ told the NPC to pull the feed to Ch9. It will be interesting to see if the new owners of 9 let Martin/Oakes etc keep running with this issue.

  9. I’m so sick of the union-bashing. The Rodent has harping on again today. If that’s the best they can do, they’re stuffed

  11. Wow ESJ, the Senator is a political mastermind extraordinaire.

    The Senator for PM!

    If the poll hasn’t been leaked yet I suspect it shows much the same ie. between 54-56/46-44%

    In the past any significant move back to the Coalition has been leaked. Any move to Labor is kept silent.

    Re John of Melbourne’s seat-by-seat betting. Seat-by-seat betting generally underestimates seats changing hands. Having said that I still hold to my overall prediction of a 5 seat majority for the Coalition so 74-74-2 isn’t a bad place for the ALP to be at currently.

  13. I suspect ESJ is a Laborite pretending to be a Liberal crank is a Lib masquerading as a Labor pessimist.

    Me–I’m a name-changer.

  15. Yes, another absolute walloping from Current Affair. Wormgate has struck. Reminds me of the previous Victorian election (not the last). Where everything kept going wrong!

  17. Sinic I hope not I have a mortgage. Didn’t somebody do some research that when interest rates go up the Coalitions popularity goes up?

  18. Adam and anyone else who had concerns about the worm being biased: it was just on ACA (it takes a lot to get me to watch this drivel 😉 ) that the audience was selected by McNair Research, who were instructed to find ‘undecided’ voters.

    Also, none of the participants could see the worm during the broadcast.

  19. John of Melbourne, I think that research would be dubious. At best I would say there has been little reaction to rates going up during this Government. I doubt you could infer people have reacted positively to them going up.

  20. Is it guaranteed that a Newspoll is (or suppose to be) out tomorrow?

    If there is no leak, this could be a disaster for JWH

    That with the debate momentum and a possibly bad CPI number….

    Things could be going pear shaped in a hurry.

    BTW ACA said that Ch9 viewers gave the debate 52-48 Howard, with nearly 48000 votes.

    What does everyone think?

  21. My point LTEP, is that some of the family on this site rejoice in good polls and develop dark conspiracy theories about bad or relatively bad polls.

    I v.much doubt there is a viable conspiracy theory that Newspoll and Galaxy are “fixed” or “cooked” by the Liberals. I put Possum’s theory about placing bets to manipulate momentum in the same category.

    In my opinion something like the Sawford formula is probably the best formula for predicting elections. If KR wins he will be a genius, if he loses he will condemned, ultimately I think objective factors like the state of the economy are probably a stronger determinant which KR cannot control.

    Instead of fattening the pig for market day the correct analogy is you cant put lipstick on a pig. JWH’s record is there for all to see as are the structural problem of Labor. As identified in Crikey today an extraordinary hackfactor.

  23. Good evening ladies and gentlemen

    The dig is proceeding with much information on the flow from all sectors. Well done but keep working on the tagging and bagging. This is important because heat of climate can have the effect of negation of proper practices. Special finds include iron-age frags, some human bone, an intact smirk, three ink wells, some plastic piping. Conclusion: disturbed horizon. Will have to go deeper.

    5am start tomorrow.

  25. Abbott was on PM saying it was all rigged because the Ch9 audience had already made up their minds who to vote for. I’m sure that on reflection he will realise what a serious admission he made when he said that. If the floaters have indeed made up their minds already, the next five weeks will all be a waste of effort and the polls won’t move.

    What will the Senator do if Newspoll has Labor at 55% or more? Start burning the files I would suggest.

  27. ESJ,

    The time may have come for the Senator to start considering its options. Sticking with the Libs will mean a decade or more of irrelevance. Would it not be better for TS to start informal discussions about how dreadfully he believes WorkChoices has let down the team, that he never supported the blather that you could keep interest rates low and that really Johnny has past his use by date.

    Indicate you could be supportive of humanising changes and Labor will no doubt embrace your patriotic conversion to good deeds. It might even become a rallying cause for the true Liberals who have been, isolated, polarised and ostracised from the mainstream.

    There might be a juicy ambassors job if it plays its card right.

  28. I think a telling stat is that the debate rated so highly – 2.4 million. You think they were tuning in to see Howard?

    Nope. They were watching to see how Rudd went. He did well – he looked PM material. Job done.

    Not sure about his challenge to debate JWH and Costello. COuld come off as cockey. But then for the Libs to say that they would have to admit Howard lost…

  33. [I don’t think it’s that bad for the Government. The majority of polls on websites had JWH as the winner]

    Hahhahahaah you’re hilarious. All those polls were rigged by Glen types. Before the rigging started they were all 60 / 35 in favour of Rudd (the rest were undecided or draw).

  34. I’ve been following politics since 1998, and I know from memory that in the past 2 Federal campaigns there was definitely a Newspoll every week, reporting on Tuesday.

  35. SirEggo – someone mentioned this earlier today. Apparently the “Howard” vote went up exponentially between 3 am and 6 am. The suggestion was that the Liberal bloggers were “de-cookieing” en masse and polling for a Howard victory.

    Anyone who actually watched the debate, however, had an entirely different perspective on what transpired.

  36. 630 John – my point exactly. Can’t trust them. Most journalists thought Rudd won to varying dgrees, particularly those that took part.

  37. Well GG,

    I think if the gotterdamerung option was real wouldnt some of the Lib cabinet timeservers “tapped the mat” and retired. A la Ruddock, Downer etc etc.

    Apparently (if ostensible unity is any measure) they seem to be a show. From what I can see the Senator still plays the Ride of the Valkyries music to himself in his private Commonwealth bathroom before a press conference or media appearance.

  38. Chinster,

    Haven’t you noticed the screaming Liberal Banshees have been absent all day. Maybe the voted till they dropped and haven’t re-emerged as yet.

  42. Grog – I think that is the point. Rudd was Prime Ministerial material. He looked the goods and I think all those swinging voters could see him representing us overseas.

    Howard, by contrast, just looked old, tired and stroppy.

  46. Charlie Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 6:39 pm

    “Also, none of the participants could see the worm during the broadcast.”

    This has the potential to further influence the Worm controller to try and over emphasize the impact of the worm. They should ask the Wormers before the debate who they support and or think will win the election/debate, who they tend to favour and then ask again at the end of the debate not only who they think won the debate but has the debate changed or influenced their voting intention. I think we all know John Howard by now and the question is when is he going to step down and are we really being asked to vote for John or his unknown successor.

    Rudd has and continues to project himself as conservative Labor… A fresh face new ideas and a fresh approach. John is looking more tired then ever. His policies have really done little then keeping the ship afloat. The ALP front bench is looking invigorated and competent.

    I agree it is hard to apply a general swing to single member electorates. It all depends where the swing is concentrated. If the Swing is in the safe seats it will have minimal effect. It is the marginals where governments are formed or lost. Worm or no worm

  48. Paul Bongiorno on Ten here in Perth really went to town re The Worm – and mentioned that Tim Gartrell said that the ALP never agreed to the Worm being banned.

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