Advertiser poll: 56-44 to Labor in Kingston

The prolific in-house pollsters at the Adelaide Advertiser have turned in another poll from a South Australian marginal seat. This time it’s the outer southern suburbs seat of Kingston, won for the Liberals in 2004 by 114 votes and reckoned by even the most optimistic of party faithful to be gone for all money this time. The poll bears this out, showing Labor’s Amanda Rishworth leading Liberal incumbent Kym Richardson 45 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote and 56-44 on two-party preferred. The poll was conducted on Wednesday night from an impressive sample of 724. The Advertiser also brings us the interesting news that former state Liberal front-bencher Robert Brokenshire will run in Kingston as the Family First candidate. Brokenshire was reckoned to have been one of the less deserving Liberal casualties of the March 2006 election, losing his seat of Mawson to Labor’s Leon Bignell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

68 comments on “Advertiser poll: 56-44 to Labor in Kingston”

  1. Also, I might add I don’t see any particular reason to think Mr Brokenshire is THAT popular. Admittedly, he was one of the less repulsive Brown/Olsen/Kerin ministers, and the swing against him wasn’t too bad in 2006, but that’s not really a glowing advertisement for him.

  2. Harry — go get one of Adam’s maps, and redo it so it highlights the FF vote, using AEC data, and take a look. The FF vote is high in Elizabeth (poor) which is low in Christianity. Same with the southern suburbs.

  3. so Michael, is your theory,FF are relying on dissaffected people from poor suburbs and broken families to build their vote?

    how noble.

    and are these people coming to FF on their own or through guidance from Ass of God?

    No Ass of God association = no FF vote.

    * negligible numbers aside of course.

  4. Always follow the money. Brokenshire’s announcement hasn’t changed the Kingston betting market from yesterday. Rishworth still $1.08 on Centrebet and $1.12 on SportingBet, which they were yesterday.

    Can anyone think of a circumstance when having two conservative candidates has actually helped elect a conservative, instead of make it harder?

    I can think of a few examples where it hasn’t helped:
    * Wentworth, NSW, 2004
    * US Presidential, 1992 and 1996
    * Unley, SA, 2006
    * Kaurna, SA, 1997

  5. HarryH, I dare say that I agree with Michael, in my experience FF voters aren’t necessarily religious at all.

    Also, just noticed an error, I forgot that Brindal never ended up running in Unley in ’06.

  6. It is alleged that there is a link between the Assemblies of God ( Edge ) Church, Richardson and Brokenshire. It has also been alledged that this same church will not be supporting FF this election. Toss in Rishworths attendance there and her SDA background it is a massive religious soup. The only non religious candidate is myself and possibly the Democrat candidate Mathew Fowler. I cant remember a term of office and the subsequent election that has had so much focus on ones Christianity and the scramble to win an extreme religious vote. I find this very scary.

  7. Interesting too that these Assemblies of God churches have a need to change their names. Seems there is a stigma attached of cultist behavior and it would do FF well to not be outwardly tied to this church.

  8. Based on the 4 polls in Makin, Sturt, Boothby and Kingston as polled by the Advertiser the state trend seems to be far less than the 10% that the ALP were claiming earlier in the year. It tends to show a SA state swing somewhere in the vicinity of 5-6%.

    Now the ALP openly claim that SA is their strongest state. A 5-6% swing in SA (and equal or less in other states) is not going to be enough to get them across the line.

    A “Ruddslide” is out of the question. The only slide Rudd is taking on those current numbers is back to opposition.

  9. oh really zenk.

    FF voters aren’t necessarily religious?

    let me look out the window to see the flying pig.

    i would love to see the figures on FF voters who are not Ass of God or associated with Ass of Godders.

    Fielding is regularly confronted with accusations that FF are just a front for Ass of God. If he had hard figures to suggest that they have significant mainstream support outside of Ass of God i would think he would state them.

    He hasn’t.

  10. In conservative and wealthy Burnside, and where we have something like 65% of people being Christians (albeit ‘traditional’ ones), FF polls bugger all. 1-3%. Same with trendy, inner-city, irreligious and wealthy Norwood. Bugger-all FF vote.

    In outer-metropolitan middle class and lower class suburbs FF polls highly, getting closer to 10%. I’ll use Elizabeth — known widely as a SA sh*thole — as an example. It’s irreligious, poor, and socially messed up. FF polled 10.7% in Napier, the district that encompasses ‘Lizbef.

    In Morialta, the district that holds the Paradise Community Church (“birthplace of Family First”), FF scored a moderate 5.7% and were beaten by the Greens.

    (using results from the recent state election)

  11. i feel for disaffected, poor Adelaide youth from broken families.

    FF research sounds like they have been targeted as potentials.

  12. According to the ABC election guide:

    “According to the 2006 census, 30.1% of Kingston voters stated no religion on their census form, the highest rate in the country.”

  13. CW #49 yes Cox did lose by a small margin, in fact he lost by less than the preference drift from ALP FF voters following the ticket!
    Michael #60 Yes paradise AOG is in Morialta, but most of the devotees don’t live in Morialta, they live in large numbers to the north east of there.
    Rudd is likely to just lose or experience a Rudd slide, its a finer line than it looks given the cluster of marginals.
    Brokies self created reputation is as a actively involved local member, the reality is he was neither active or overly popular especially towards the end but he did suck up to the religous right big time. Obviously he has done a deal to help his mate and get LC preselection for the next state election. The really interesting question is why did Atkinson who normally gets FF preferences for his SDA flock, dump Rishworth in it? You can bet he will broker them for young Champion in Wakefield!

  14. Matthew Flinders #58 – well, Antony Green’s calculator shows ALP 79 seats with a uniform 5% swing.

    Uniform 6% would be 83 seats. That’s “only” 53.3% two party preferred, too …

    54.3%TPP is a 7% swing, for 91 seats if uniform, and still nowhere remotely near the newspoll figure of course…

    Worse still for the government, if South Australia with not many seats is “only” swinging 5-6%, but the national figure is higher than that, then it follows that there are bigger swings in places with more seats up for grabs. Don’t blame you for trying but it does look like a landslide to me.

  15. still no movement on the betting markets for kingston, obviously not going to have an impact. some people are saying he’ll get 15% of the vote, they are crazy

  16. It is easily possible

    5% FF first vote on it’s own, seems relatively uniform around the country.

    10% personal name factor vote – remember he was a state MP for a long time (12 years I think)

    Of course, the problem is most of that 10% will come from Richardson (and they go back to him through preferences). It won’t win the seat, unless something drastic happens.

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