The prolific in-house pollsters at the Adelaide Advertiser have turned in another poll from a South Australian marginal seat. This time it’s the outer southern suburbs seat of Kingston, won for the Liberals in 2004 by 114 votes and reckoned by even the most optimistic of party faithful to be gone for all money this time. The poll bears this out, showing Labor’s Amanda Rishworth leading Liberal incumbent Kym Richardson 45 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote and 56-44 on two-party preferred. The poll was conducted on Wednesday night from an impressive sample of 724. The Advertiser also brings us the interesting news that former state Liberal front-bencher Robert Brokenshire will run in Kingston as the Family First candidate. Brokenshire was reckoned to have been one of the less deserving Liberal casualties of the March 2006 election, losing his seat of Mawson to Labor’s Leon Bignell.
William. A new thread at 1.45 EST. You are indefatigable!
I am also Western Australian. Rest assured though that I will be up at 1.45 WST and beyond.
William.
WST notwithstanding, you and your blog must be congratulated on the effort last night. Outstanding.
i read Brokenshire’s article.
it is highly humorous when the Fundies start calling other people loonies.
sounds a bit fishy to me. He’s been a Lib member since he was 18 and was a front bencher. He is mates with the Lib candidate in the seat who just happens to be struggling.
Is he using FF(and their flock) to help a Lib win via his prefs?
Glenn Milne devotes his Monday column to the contest in Corio.
His assessment of the whole thing is rather strange.
Firstly, Milne presents as news the inside word that the Liberal Party “intends” to preference Gavan O’Connor. (Big exclamation marks!!!!) Although Milne’s not saying it’s a sure thing. Certainly not. His third paragraph begins: “If the Liberals do preference O’Connor”.
Err Glenn, of course the Libs will preference a viable independent over Labor. They always have and always will. It’s a no-brainer.
Secondly, Milne says that losing Corio would mean Labor needs to win another seat to cancel out the loss. But this assumes that an independent O’Connor would support a Liberal government; which on all available evidence seems unlikely.
Thirdly, Milne implies that Rudd was Opposition Leader at the time of O’Connor’s (and Bob Sercombe’s) preselection defeat. When in fact these preselections were conducted in early 2006, several months before Rudd assumed the leadership. Is this a blatant distortion from a Liberal spiv or just a lazy journalist who won’t check his facts?
What difference does it make Mr Walsh?
O’Connor was dumped in favour of a union official, like many other ALP candidates around the country.
Forget local experience either in business or elsewhere, it seems you only need to be a trade union official to stand for election with the ALP.
Having seen the dabate now, plus a 6%+ swing in South Australia, it’s all over red rover. Mr Howard is gone – like the English rugby team… fluking it so many times but never scoring. Spoiling, sneaking a few penalties… Give me the $1.60 on offer. 60% tax free money for a 5 week investment,
William,
What do we (well yes, you mainly) know of the methodology and the form of polls conducted by this mob, are they usually reasonably close to the mark or not?
Labor needs to ask Amanda Rishworth what she’s doing, and then direct other candidates for marginal Lib seats to do similar things. 56-44 is outstanding after a week largely considered to have gone in the Libs’ favour, and Ms. Rishworth can rightly look for a high Parliamentray profile if she can keep it up.
I live in Brand, and a close friend on mine lives in Cowan. She’s stated on her blogspot that she’s very impressed with the difference between the two candidates to replace Mr. Edwards – she clearly favours the ALP candidate on the basis of “the details” – the attention that the candidates put into getting things right in their letters to the electorate. Liz Prime’s letter was miles ahead of Luke Simpkins’.
Here’s the link to the analysis, for those who are interested:
http://sonnlich.livejournal.com/1108997.html#cutid1
Her comments on the contempt with which the Lib candidates are treating the local electors are starting to resonate a little…
Thats all very cosy,(2PP incest), but where can we find out the vote for the Greens and the deciding factor in this election??
I would add to the chorus of thanks yous to William for his blog. It’s been my Election Central for the past couple of months. 🙂
(Donation on the way this week, William)
The Liberals would have already given this seat away – certain gain for Labor on election night. Not even Dolly Downer can save Kingston for the Rodent LOL
Mark Kenny makes the point that Labor’s 45% primary is the same as the last Galaxy poll. Unfortunately for Mark, this 45% is out of 91%, with 9% undecided not yet distributed.
That’s not even talking about trying to compare the SA vote with Galaxy’s Australia-wide 45% primary.
The Liberals were dead in the water weeks, if not months, back in Kingston. Why even bother polling? I would be far more interested to hear how things are going in Sturt, Boothby and Grey
Psepho, I think this just shows you how stupid some journalists are. They don’t even understand the simple mathematics of their own polling. Having said that, a few people on this forum have fallen into the very same mistake in the past with the Advertiser polls.
Based on the undecided portion of votes (9%), Rishworth may not even need to go to preferences to win this seat.
[The Liberals were dead in the water weeks, if not months, back in Kingston. Why even bother polling? I would be far more interested to hear how things are going in Sturt, Boothby and Grey]
I agree, but has now become interesting because of Brokenshire running for Family First. They are more than likely to direct preferences to the Liberal, which could hurt Labor.
But I doubt Labor would lose if they have a 45% primary.
I don’t think Brokenshire will hurt Labor, if anything it might cause a few liberals to vote family first, although the preferences will probably flow back to the liberals anyway. Net result probably not much difference.
I live in both Kingston and Mawson – Brokenshire’s old state seat.
What people should understand is that this man is very, very popular, and has name recognition on the street. Yes he lost is seat last year, but he only held it by a few percent to start with. It has always been a swinging seat. The swing to Labor was something like 6% compared to the statewide of 9%. I actually thought he would re-contest it in 2010 – and win should the State Liberals become even slightly competent. Strange times.
This has got to be the first ’tiser front page article that has provided an exclusive that made me double-take. Ever. I don’t think anyone saw this coming. It is also the first time I have ever looked at Family First as having any sort of credibility whatsoever.
Will he win? Well, no, one imagines he sees himself as setting himself up as a future senate candidate or something. But FF is already polling at 5% in Kingston – and these people won’t shift. Add maybe another 10% (that’s a made up figure – purely speculative) for the personal name factor, especially in Mclaren Vale. Assuming these preferences go to Liberal, then all it would take is a few differing factors either way and this seat could suddenly become interesting. For example, I am not sure how well Rishworth is doing, but I personally have not heard a peep from her. And something about her does make me wince, maybe it’s that grin on the red posters… I digress though, as I am obviously biased 🙂
Having said that, the 45% primary vote would have to be eaten into by some margin for the seat to have any chance of being in play, given the Greens will preference Labor, and that some people will still go 1. FF and 2. Labor, regardless of preferences advised by the party. I think the seat will fall to Labor. But it’s interesting to speculate.
I am a Liberal supporter. I have a very uneasy feeling about FF. And yet, I am now seriously considering putting Brokenshire as my first preference. Maybe I need to get some more sleep…
Whilst Brokenshire might shift a few votes, I think he’s left his run a bit late. Brokenshire might have been a moderately liked local member, but people are suspicious of politicians, and his motives will be questioned.
Also, Mawson isn’t the only state seat in Kingston, and the parts of the seat that will swing heavily, will be the areas around places like Hallett Cove, which swung heavily to Chloe Fox at the state election.
Whether the Liberal candidate will even manage to get over 35% of the vote is now questionable.
I was thinking the same thing Matt – if he had made up his mind a fortnight ago, and got some proper posters up, things might have been different – rather then these daft posters stating ‘we want to lower petrol tax’ and ‘put your family first!’ He also announced it the day after the debate – and still got front page coverage – but it will be largely drowned out by worm discussion tonight.
Still, I’ll read the next local Messenger with interest, to see if it has any decent stories on him, the grassroot vote is what he needs.
Yes, I haven’t quite worked out why Family First have that petrol stuff on their posters. Quite odd really. Surely something about “values” might be more sensible, appeal to their conservative roots !
Ah, Brokie, the return of the landed gentry. An outstanding canditate? He got pant’s by Biggle’s for goodness sake. A pollie who spends his day’s in parliament drawing cartoons.
I am an Adelaide resident too and would be far more interested in polls in other seats. Nobody seems to think the Liberals can hang onto this one. It was a knife edge result last time and demographic change since then alone would make it notionally Labor now. Add in the elimination of the Latham antagonism factor and it must be gone. Kym Richardson seems a likeable enough local member but conversely doesn’t stand out either. If the Advertiser intends to cover all the Adelaide marginals then kudos to them, but lets see the other seats, where the real action will be.
Family First is anathema to the larger population. Can’t see the broad church falling for this trick.
I went from Boothby to Cape Jervis last week and was not at all repulsed by Amanda’s multitudinous posters. I expected to feel repulsed once I got to Mayo, but not one single Dolly girl poster to be found.
And yes, the highly regarded Chloe Fox hangs out with Amanda.
Hey Matthew I can tell you what Rishworth is doing, she’s riding the Rudd wave and Howard retirement bandwagon. What she is doing well is not exposing herself too much (least people get to know her) and sucessfully avoiding talking about her union organiser background signing up 14 to 15 year kids in Maccas and HJ’s for the Shoppies and avoiding talking about Linda Kirk’s view regarding the shoppies pro-life, anti stem cell policies for members and Yes Max Brokie is a legend in his own mind.
What Linda Kirk got to do with rishworth and kingston?
You’d have to be very suspicious of Mr Brokenshire’s Damascan conversion.
Harry H, I thought exactly the same thing when I read it.
Max, it is interesting that you say Brokenshire is so popular, I’m not quite so sure. I had a bit to do with the Liberal campaign for Kingston in 98, and in that time ocassionally crossed paths with Brokenshire. He seemed liked a nice enough guy, but also seemed like he had about as much charisma as a used dishcloth.
FF is optimistic regards their Kingston chances. Brokenshire had been in negotiations with the party for some time, but was only down at FF HQ today to sign the party papers and officially become the candidate.
FF does best in areas where there are: a) high levels of social breakdown, b) rural areas. Kingston is fairly socially damaged, and should score a high-ish FF vote. Whether it’s the single mums or the people repulsed by single mums voting FF I’m not sure!
Is there an ASS of God preaching barn in Kingston?
thats about the only areas FF get above 1% of the vote.
Family First preferences finished off David Cox last time.
Sure is HarryH, the biggest one in SA, just ask the former ALP member
if this poll of 56-44 is anywhere near correct, the biggest money plate barn in SA won’t help one iota.
Well Harry it would help but not enough to alter the outcome, still its a long campaign
I agree Max Brokenshire is very popular and dont be surprised if he polls well into double figures. A good move by the FF / Libs to try and win the seat. Polling of 270 is very low so i would doubt the figures. Minor parties would be at least 3% higher than are given. If he does poll well and attracts swinging ALP voters back to the Libs then the Green prefs will be crucial for either major party to win. This seat is by no means lost by the Libs now
PS many who swung to vote Bignall in at the state election are not happy so they now have the opportunity to correct it
Bill, the sample was 724, not 270. This is a respectable sample size.
Are you willing to imagine the ALP will gain any seats?
You know “Lose the election please” that beyond a certain point “size doesn’t matter” as they say, 500 would have been sufficient. Bill is just having difficulty coming to terms with the flogging the Libs are shortly to receive, Brokie is as I said earlier a legend in his own mind but FF will be lucky to get a total rise of more than 1% on its quite impressive vote of the last outing in Kingston even with the great man steering its fortuness. Its just a political suicide note from a has been member suffering from relevence deprivation syndrome.
Lose the election please Says:
October 22nd, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Bill, the sample was 724, not 270. This is a respectable sample size.
Are you willing to imagine the ALP will gain any seats?
i meant 720. The ALP will gain seats but will fall short in the end
I just watched Nine News – which I rarely do – mainly to see Oakes throw a hissy about the worm. Which he did – good stuff.
Interestingly, Brokenshire was the 3rd or 4th story – right after the worm (which got pushed back due to a tragic drowning incident in SA today). Mr X’s senate announcement was just after that.
This was actually the first time I’ve heard the candidates actually speak in the past year or so – mainly because I avoid evening news, and get my info from the web. Rishworth was actually disapointing – I was expecting more from an apparent star candidate. She basically blathered on about this being a sign that John Howard was not only losing touch with the electorate, but possibly losing touch with his own party team. What absolute tosh.
ICMore @ 16 is right – all she is doing is keeping her mouth shut and riding the party line and consequent swing. One rues the day when politics was local.
Kev @ 28
The interesting thing is that despite this, he has survived remarkably well over the past few elections. But I digress. Maybe it’s his presence, but he has always seemed an honest broker, and he did fight very, very hard to get the South actually heard. He’s the type able to mingle with the crowds. Maybe it’s just my perception *shrug.* I don’t think charisma is everything – how much does Mr Ruddock have do you think? Maybe since Mr Rudd became preferred PM people started putting more emphasis on it?
Bill, I would agree that Leon hasn’t made a huge impact as the new MP. But I’m not sure that this seat is simply ‘in play’ due to this announcement, quite a few things will have to shift before that happens. It will be interesting to see if any RB for Kingston signs pop up over the next week or so, will keep an eye out. After tonight, a large chunk of voters will understand he is running, question is how much of a primary vote will reach him as a result.
If only FF didn’t have daft policies (still can’t get over ‘lower petrol tax’) I would think about chucking a vote his way. Tough call.
it doesn’t matter who heads a FF ticket. It doesn’t affect their vote.
FF voters are voting for a cause.
Non Ass of God people aren’t going to vote for FF even if Guy Sebastian was the candidate.
With the Ruddslide still a decent possibility, and the ALP vote looking very strong in SA, I still see more Brokenshire votes coming from liberal voters than labor ones. As I said above, Brokenshire has left his run too late, and a decent result from him will be to poll 6-7%.
Matthew Sykes, the Ruddslide is a myth. Every seat won will have to be won on hard slog.
Im pretty sure i saw his signs up near the expressway at 4pm
The thing is that the FF vote isn’t just evangelical Christians. While, yes, conservative Christians are heavily represented in the top party heirachy, its support base is far more broad.
I dont know I think Guy sebastion might pull a few extra votes, I think Matthew is about right 6-7%. “Lose the election Please” please save the parish pump sermons for the faithful, as the punters start to believe it will be close, that is exactly when the Ruddslide will occur, the SDA kiddy signature collectors in Kingston and Wakefield wouldn’t know the meaning of the term “hard slog”, they will just surf on in and put their hands up for “the Don” when he joins them in six months time.
Matthew, I agree, the majority probably will come from liberal voters. That’s not the issue, as they’ll get back to Richardson anyway. The question is whether a few disenchanted Labor supporters switch as well. Highly unlikely that it will be enough, but stranger things have happened.
The more I think about this, the more I am confused by this move. Brokenshire must know his odds of winning next month are next to none. He’s not some dud off the street to fill a spot on the ticket, he’s electable material. In 2010, there will be both a state and a federal position needing a liberal challenger to the incumbent (assuming Rishworth gets up) in a seat which will be winnable with a few percentage swing.
Brokenshire would have had one of those spots, almost certainly. So for him to leave now, 18 months or so away from a resurrected career with the libs, is somewhat astonishing. He must be really disheartened by the party faction system to do this.
Michael @ 45
proof please,
that FF get anything but negligible votes outside evengalical christians.
where there is a preaching barn they can get 2 to 5%.
where there is no barn they are lucky to get 1 %.
No?
David Cox lost by a very small margin, which can hardly be assigned to FF.
I seem to recollect it was the primary vote. Would you like to fill me in on your inside dope, 31?
David Cox got carried away in the Latham’s Luck Stakes and by his absence from the electorate in his Federal capacity as … what? Well, doesn’t matter.
Kingston is itching to win back its money, this time around.
RICHARDSON, Kym Liberal 36,848 43.59% Swing +3.82
COX, David Alexander ALP 35,748 42.29% Swing+3.41
Courtesy, AEC.
LTEP, a myth is only a myth after it is disproven. That will have to wait until November 24 !