Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.
No 549
I might ask you the same question.
No 550
Channel 9 breached their agreement and deserve to be punished.
Dear Troopers,
The below is from the Stephen Colbert 2006 roast of Bush. Take and apply as you wish:
‘Most of all, I believe in this president. Now, I know there are some polls out there saying that this man has a 32% approval rating. But guys like us, we don’t pay attention to the polls. We know that polls are just a collection of statistics that reflect what people are thinking in “reality.” And reality has a well-known liberal bias…Sir, pay no attention to the people who say the glass is half empty, because 32% means it’s 2/3 empty. There’s still some liquid in that glass is my point, but I wouldn’t drink it. The last third is usually backwash. Okay.’
Wombat, the best way to evade a rooting is to vigorously pork some of those marginals. After yesterday`s often flaccid worm however, one must doubt whether he`s still get the pecker for it.
[No 549
I might ask you the same question.]
Maybe you will, maybe you won’t, you just need some thinking time…
Typical mental approach of a prospective Liberal senator.
The biggest mistake made by the Liberals is to underestimate the public: we are not the fools they take us for. They have insulted the intelligence of the public – Costello is still doing it every time he has a microphone put in front of him – and bravely dismiss the meaning of the polls.
Their time approaches at last.
[Generic Person Says:
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:15 am
No 550
Channel 9 breached their agreement and deserve to be punished.]
How about Channel 9 stays here, but you go to North Korea where they agree with your theories of press freedom?
[ deserve to be punished ]
Spoken like a true Neo Con Extremist. Punish all those who don’t agree with you.
Irrelevant. Of more import is that Howard breached his agreement with the electorate and WILL be punished.
Glen (409) Haven’t you worked it out? We only do it for your benefit.
As for ear wax, anyone who can give the ALP a 58/42 lead over Howard can eat all the ear wax he likes as far as I’m concerned.
“Channel 9 breached their agreement and deserve to be punished.”
thanks, Lib bully boy. I think you’ll find “punishment” is not one of the consequences that flow from a breach of contract.
Especially in the absence of, erm, a contract.
Go on, sue 9 for damages. It’ll be a laugh! Perhaps try Fed Court for specific performance of a 2nd no-worm debate? Im sure Rudd wont object.
No 558
Not at all. The western world believes very much in the principle of contract and the rule of law.
Channel 9 breached copyright law and a formal broadcast agreement. Reasonable assessment can only lead to a conclusion that punishment is required according to the impartial observation of the courts.
Generic, look at the scoreboard.
Just read the latest by Piers Ackerman. This guy has a serious problem. He must be paid direct from LNP funds surely?? If he is they should sack him as he is so over the top in his detestation of all things not-Howard, its sickening.
Would love to see him on tele speaking to these latest polls though! Yes sorry, i’m a bit of a sicko sometimes, but it would be sooooooo funny.
Could the Chaser have him on a guest spot????
The problem for Howard and the LNP is that Costello’s performance has not been great, not someone you can see naturally slipping into the job. He is stilted and really lacks any flow in his conversation.
THAT is Howard and LNP fault, no succession planning or development.
Channel 9, Martin and everyone else will have it out over the next few days no doubt – that will help suck more air from Howard’s campaign maybe as the world get side-tracked.
how about this for a headline
“Go Johnny Go.. and good riddance!”
Just cant help but be so stunningly pleased that that f*#&in’ government will be humiliatingly toss like the trash it is.
Opps… way to explicit, expectant and attached!
Gp should get a front bench seat with the Libs. He would be in good company with all the other heartless lawyers attacking basic freedoms of speech, working rights. We would all bow down to Emporor Howard. It reminds of Hockey and Abbot attacking Buchanon for his IR report. He was to sue for defamation. Hockey apologised. Maybe GP could defend Buchanon
[Not at all. The western world believes very much in the principle of contract and the rule of law.]
There was no contract! The Liberal party made stupid stipulations with the press club, they didn’t tell channel 9 anything. This is what your beloved prime minister said today.
[Channel 9 breached copyright law and a formal broadcast agreement. ]
Oh so now you turn into a Professor of law even though you skip classes to go to young liberal meetings!?
Stop embarrasing yourself.
[Reasonable assessment can only lead to a conclusion that punishment is required according to the impartial observation of the courts.]
More mealy mouthed garbage.
Generic Liberal,
Your posts are just getting silly now. Give it up. Take your extreme right wing views away. In 5 weeks time we won’t have to put up with this sort of rubbish any more.
Glen, you have created a monster. Michelle Grattan`s concluding word in her article in today`s The Age? You guessed it…but as yet uncapitalised.
Generic @ 550: Just how should Nine be punished?
Should they be forced to re-run the debate, but without the worm?
No 569
Given your extreme left wing views, I think I smell hypocrisy.
Free speech only exists when it suits you.
[Generic @ 550: Just how should Nine be punished?]
Force them to sit through some of his Young Liberal meetings.
From The Age……..”Rules”
It said Nine accepted the debate rules, which specifically stated: “Clean live feed of the debate to be available to all media outlets on condition live broadcast is not ‘wormed’ or otherwise changed.”
Nine’s news director John Westacott said there was no such contract or agreement but he conceded that his network was asked not to use the worm.
The press club said the rules were agreed to by the parties — a claim Labor rejected — and set as one of the conditions.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/press-club-tries-to-wriggle-out-of-furore/2007/10/22/1192940984214.html
Just thinking of Kev’s response to the ‘sorry’ question last night. If he thought that up on his feet then, that was sheer brilliance – took an emotive concept for some and, tamed it and made it sound a good thing without negatives.
Hello all. Dinsdale is back.
I think Howard’s twitch is contagious among his supporters and is showing up on this blog with comments attacking Ch 9 and poor old Hugh Briss.
[No 569
Given your extreme left wing views, I think I smell hypocrisy.
Free speech only exists when it suits you.]
You’re free to show how idiotic you are as often as you like. It’s fine with me.
[MM @ 514 Yes, Howard is going to lead the charge of The Light Brigade.]
“Canon to the right of him, canon to the left of him, canon at front of him, volleyed and thundered.”
Its a long valley and Rudd with the high ground has Howard in a crossfire.
#572 It’s not about free speech Generic, it’s about depth of argument, and quite frankly, on this topic you would be out of your depth in a car park puddle.
The more they drag out this worm thing in public the worse it is for the LNP because many will assume it as an Howard attempt to try and stifle things.
Kev humanised aboriginal policy for the first time in 11 years. The antithesis to Howards demonising. We still have a long way to go.
I’m not sure what the point of all this sillyness is other than to distract or annoy. So can I jus restate:
1. Howard was whumped in the debate.
2. He made a stupid tactical blunder with his worm garbage.
3. 58-42.
🙂
No 579
Of course, how convenient. Only those of left pursuasion are allowed to argue or voice their opinions, apparently. Feigned indignation, they expound, when heaven forbid someone holds an alternative view.
The truth is, whether I wrote a 10,000 page essay on the topic, you made your mind up long ago.
[ 572
Generic Person Says:
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:29 am
No 569
Given your extreme left wing views ]
.
.
What extreme left wing views. You mean believing in freedom of speech. I’ve voted Liberal in every election I’ve ever voted in and now changed because the hard right wing has taken over the Party. 5 more weeks and your kind are history.
[1. Howard was whumped in the debate.
2. He made a stupid tactical blunder with his worm garbage.
3. 58-42.]
Great summary!
kina, but he did not say he would say ‘sorry’. My real worry is Rudd will be far more like Howard than that of previous labor leaders. Scary stuff ….
I feel like I’ve read it. tonight. It was boring.
585 Agreed ShowsOn – El Pancho Puncho!
It would; help is the source would provide a better breakdown of the poll. Has anyone been keeping a graph/record of all the polls. It also pays to look at who is who and the trends. If Rudd secures too high of an expectation then the rebound kicks in.. But I guess the fact that John Howard has clung on for so long has taken its toll. He should have did the right thing and retried from office whilst he can still take up a Foreign Ambassadorship.
I would like to see a State breakdown which lists all parties soon after the close of nominations.
This from ozelection2007:
Pulled these from the comments posted on Possum (cant vouch for their accuracy as no idea where they were sourced from) but if they are right they could be a horror story for the Libs
Consider the better security and economy numbers
Pimary Vote Labor/Coalition 51/38
Better PM Rudd/Howard 50/37
Best handling economy Howard/Rudd 46/37
Best handling national security Howard/Rudd 43/39
Best handling education Howard/Rudd 28/58
Best handling health and medicare Howard/Rudd 28/57
TOP NEWS STORY ON “THE AUSTRALIAN” ONLINE FOR TOMMOROW:
“Desperate Grandma tried to save Dean”
Errr… okay… second story then:
“Garuda captain ignored warnings”
Okay it MUST be the third story then!?
“Nuclear may not happen, says Turnbull”
Why the hell is “The Australian” not running “Stellar comeback for Labor in latest newspoll”
It is actually Labor policy from memory and Kev was saying that saying ‘sorry’ was important as a bridge…etc. Don’t forget Kev is not the entire party – and you wont find a bunch of soft yes men like there are in the Howard Cabinet.
I asked a GP friend who looked carefully at Howard’s face during the debate whether there were signs of any particular illnesses.
She said that it reminded her of something vaguely familiar but she could not pin it down until now.
Today she considered and then rejected diagnosing dry mouth due to taking anti-depressants or a swollen tongue with a genetic cause.
Finally now she has remembered.
Apparently there was a character in Conan the Barbarian who could turn into a giant snake. This character apparently had exactly the same weird mouth mannerisms as shown by Howard.
So there we have the official word.
Labor Voter, refresh the page and this is the lead story from the Shamaham.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22632102-601,00.html
Best handling national security Howard/Rudd 43/39
BRILLIANT, that is now basically even given Margin of Error.
Best handling education Howard/Rudd 28/58
Best handling health and medicare Howard/Rudd 28/57
FAR OUT, no wonder Howard isn’t talking about health and education!
Just noticed this from Lateline, last week:
Michael Kroger: I think we can say this about the first week, the Government couldn’t have done better and I don’t think the Opposition could have done worse.
Oh well. Scratch that idea.
Mind you, Kroger is a tactical genius who’s talent for feuding has helped make the Victoria Liberal Party the electoral powerhouse it is today.
Greggowa@586: Rudd said at the 40th anniversary of the Indigenous referendum that he would say sorry. I consider that a much more important venue to make such a pledge than the debate.
What was very important last night was Rudd’s language in his answer about reconciliation. I cannot remember the last time a politician spoke about respect in this manner.
[Labor needs a uniform swing of about 4 per cent and has to win 16seats for victory on November 24.]
YAY! Shanahan and The Oz have finally figured that it is 16 seats, NOT 17 to get a majority of 1!
Shamalangadingdong’s column for tomorrow:
“Labor not as popular as leader”
*sigh*
He will never give up, will he? He’s killing satire.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/labor_not_as_popular_as_leader/
[Mind you, Kroger is a tactical genius who’s talent for feuding has helped make the Victoria Liberal Party the electoral powerhouse it is today.]
Yep, such a genius in that the FIRST choice for Higgins back in the 80’s was Glenn Wheatley, John Farnham’s Manager who was forced to withdraw and Smirker took his place because of Wheratley’s problems with The Ivy Night Club and other finanacial problems.
Of course Mr Wheatley is currently a guest of Her Majesty’s fine chain of penal rehabilitation centres 🙂